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Fidus Investment (FDUS) AI Stock Analysis

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FDUS

Fidus Investment

(NASDAQ:FDUS)

Select Model
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:$21.50â–²(10.26% Upside)
Action:downgraded
Date:11/06/26

The score is primarily supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and very high dividend yield) and a generally constructive technical backdrop. Offsetting these positives, financial performance is constrained by recently negative/volatile cash flow despite strong reported profitability, and the latest earnings call flagged near-term NII pressure and higher funding costs even as credit quality and liquidity remained solid.

Positive Factors
Improving recurring incomeThe year-over-year increase in adjusted net investment income indicates stronger recurring earnings from the debt portfolio. Continued base-dividend coverage supports shareholder distributions while giving FDUS a durable foundation for reinvestment and future portfolio growth.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash realizationRecent negative operating and free cash flow shows that reported earnings have not consistently converted into cash. For an investment company, uneven cash realization can increase reliance on funding sources and constrain flexibility when repayments, exits, or distributions are less favorable.

Fidus Investment (FDUS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%FDUS+10.02%SPY+10.42%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$740.11M
Dividend Yield
13.90%
Average Volume (3M)
317.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
9.3
Beta (1Y)
0.65
Revenue Growth
3.27%
EPS Growth
-9.84%
Country
US
Employees
0
Sector
Financial
Sector Strength
68
Industry
Asset Management

Fidus Investment Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fidus Investment Corporation functions as a Business Development Company (BDC), offering capital solutions for diverse corporate endeavors. These encompass management buyouts, debt restructuring, ownership transitions, capital reorganizations, strate...

How the Company Makes Money

Fidus makes money primarily by investing capital into lower middle-market companies and earning returns from those investments. Its key revenue and earnings drivers typically include: (1) Interest income on debt investments: The largest recurring sou...

Fidus Investment Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-2.75%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call conveyed a generally positive operational and portfolio story: the company maintained adjusted NII sufficient to cover the base dividend, realized equity gains, reported a portfolio valued above cost, held ample liquidity, and eliminated nonaccruals post-quarter. However, there are near-term headwinds including a meaningful quarter-over-quarter decline in NII and adjusted NII, reduced fee income, higher interest expense from recent refinancing (60 bps increase), and an $11 million realized loss on a post-quarter exit. Management emphasized conservative underwriting, a healthy portfolio yield (12.5%), and an improving deal pipeline, suggesting confidence in future results despite short-term earnings pressure.

Positive Updates

Adjusted NII Covers Base Dividend
Adjusted NII of $0.50 per share in Q2 2026, maintaining the company's track record of covering the base dividend; Board declared total dividend of $0.50 per share (base $0.43 + supplemental $0.07).

Negative Updates

Quarter-over-Quarter Decline in NII
Net investment income (NII) fell to $0.49 per share in Q2 from $0.65 in Q1, a decline of ~24.6%; adjusted NII declined to $0.50 from $0.62, down ~19.35% quarter-over-quarter.

Company Guidance

Management guided that they expect M&A-driven deal flow and investment activity to pick up in the second half of 2026—particularly Q4—as geopolitical uncertainties abate, while continuing to adhere to strict underwriting and target risk-adjusted returns; key metrics cited include Q2 adjusted NII of $0.50 per share (Q1 $0.62) and NII of $0.49 per share (Q1 $0.65), a Q3 dividend of $0.50 per share (base $0.43 + supplemental $0.07) payable 9/29/2026 (record 9/15/2026), Q2 originations of $98.0 million and $48.1 million invested in four new companies, $39.2 million of Q2 repayments/realizations, $6.4 million of net realized gains ($0.17 per share), a $1.4 billion fair-value portfolio ($1.3 billion debt / $147.2 million equity) with NAV $738.5 million or $19.46 per share, weighted-average debt yield 12.5%, weighted-average interest on outstanding debt 5.8% (vs 5.2% in Q1), net debt outstanding $739.8 million (SBA $296m, unsecured notes $320m, LOC $112.7m, secured $11.1m) with net debt-to-equity ~1.0x (statutory leverage excl. SBA 0.6x), liquidity of ≈$170.1 million (cash $39.3m, LOC availability $112.3m, SBA availability $18.5m), weighted average LTV 41% (target ≤50%), target leverage range 0.9–1.1x (midpoint 1.0x), and the potential to use the ATM to raise equity if pipeline growth warrants.

Fidus Investment Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong reported profitability (very high margins; TTM net profitability ~51%) and an improved leverage picture in TTM, but the overall quality is held back by volatile revenue and, most importantly, recently negative and highly volatile operating/free cash flow, which raises cash-conversion and liquidity risk.

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

72Positive

Cash Flow

28Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue157.03M159.25M113.68M108.60M71.62M146.41M
Gross Profit85.88M115.62M91.39M88.00M55.05M129.47M
EBITDA83.67M123.21M82.21M79.83M65.75B120.89M
Net Income79.31M82.40M78.29M77.13M35.82M116.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.51B1.43B1.16B1.09B935.96M897.18M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments31.25M70.00M57.16M119.13M62.35M169.42M
Total Debt281.85M644.08M474.89M466.51M410.10M366.04M
Total Liabilities730.86M684.64M508.45M501.42M455.62M409.42M
Stockholders Equity774.41M741.90M655.67M589.47M480.34M487.76M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-173.52M-147.00M62.37M48.41M-105.54M167.90M
Operating Cash Flow-173.52M-147.00M62.37M48.41M-105.54M167.90M
Investing Cash Flow-103.77M0-117.67M-77.87M-139.87B126.05B
Financing Cash Flow143.90M169.45M-6.67M86.24M-1.53M-122.79M

Fidus Investment Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price19.50

Price Trends

50DMA19.12Positive
100DMA19.11Positive
200DMA18.16Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.11Negative
RSI57.36Neutral
STOCH80.56Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FDUS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.50 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.05, above the 50-day MA of 19.12, and above the 200-day MA of 18.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.56 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FDUS.

Fidus Investment Risk Analysis

Fidus Investment disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Fidus Investment reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Legal & Regulatory - Litigation, compliance, new legislation, and taxation risks

Latest Risks Added

1 New Risk
1.. Other than the risk factor described below, there have been no material changes to the risk factors previously disclosed under Q2, 2025

Fidus Investment Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

FDUS against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
CGBDCGBD69Neutral$759.60M60.603.25%13.77%11.89%-58.67%
FDUSFDUS69Neutral$783.48M9.3310.54%13.90%3.27%-9.84%
Sector *68Neutral$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
CSWCCSWC66Neutral$1.58B13.0710.22%11.00%25.12%7.88%
CIONCION65Neutral$346.88M-15.71-2.03%20.61%3.63%―
BCSFBCSF53Neutral$729.12M11.265.79%16.65%-11.58%-40.72%
SARSAR47Neutral$216.28M-51.60-1.08%25.19%-10.96%-110.82%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%FDUSCSWCSARCGBDBCSFCIONDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
FDUS and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
FDUSFidus Investment19.501.8710.63%
CSWCCapital Southwest23.274.6825.19%
SARSaratoga Investment12.90-5.62-30.35%
CGBDCarlyle Secured Lending Inc10.890.403.82%
BCSFBain Capital Specialty Finance11.17-0.81-6.76%
CIONCion Investment Corp.6.60-1.49-18.41%

Fidus Investment Corporate Events

DividendsFinancial Disclosures

Fidus Investment Reports Third-Quarter Results, Declares Dividends

Positive
Nov 5, 2026

On November 5, 2026, Fidus Investment Corporation reported third-quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2026, including $45.9 million of total investment income and $21.1 million of net investment income, or $0.54 per share. Adjusted net...

Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Fidus Investment Completes Exchange Offer for 2029 Notes

Positive
Oct 26, 2026

On May 29, 2026, Fidus Investment Corporation privately issued $120.0 million of 6.625% Notes due 2029, then on October 20, 2026 closed an exchange offer to swap these restricted notes for an equivalent amount of SEC-registered notes. The move conver...

DividendsFinancial Disclosures

Fidus Investment Announces Strong Second Quarter 2026 Results

Positive
Aug 6, 2026

On August 6, 2026, Fidus Investment Corporation reported its second quarter 2026 results, highlighting total investment income of $43.5 million and net investment income of $18.7 million, or $0.49 per share, with adjusted net investment income at $0....

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 06, 2026