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Mosaic Co (MOS)
NYSE:MOS
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Mosaic Co
(NYSE:MOS)
72Outperform
Positive Factors
Market Strategy
Leveraging market access in North America, Brazil, China, and India is expected to deliver $300 million EBITDA uplift by 2030.
Operational Efficiency
Operating efficiency initiatives in Fertilizantes are expected to result in $100-$120 million of cost savings.
Production Target
Mosaic Co. increased its full year potash production target due to strong global demand, which should provide solid margins given the tight market.
Negative Factors
Aggressive Targets
Aggressive targets set by Mosaic Co may concern some investors, as they could be perceived as overly ambitious.
Earnings Growth
A lack of earnings growth and limited prospects for sustained higher fertilizer prices could weigh on sentiment.
EBITDA Forecast
1Q25 EBITDA is revised from $521M to $493M, which is below the consensus of $514M.
Mosaic Co (MOS) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.36B
Dividend Yield2.6%
Average Volume (3M)5.88M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.2
Beta (1Y)0.93
Revenue Growth-13.37%
EPS Growth-50.63%
CountryUS
Employees13,765
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength63
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.49
Shares Outstanding317,230,800
10 Day Avg. Volume6,601,219
30 Day Avg. Volume5,878,087
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.15
Price to Book (P/B)0.90
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio218.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.84
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$34.19Price Target Upside4.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
Mosaic Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionThe Mosaic Company (MOS) is a leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash, two of the primary nutrients essential for plant growth. Based in the United States, Mosaic operates through its two primary segments: Phosphates and Potash. The company is involved in the mining, production, and distribution of these essential agricultural commodities, serving customers in agriculture, animal feed, and industrial markets globally. Mosaic is committed to sustainable practices in its operations and focuses on enhancing agricultural productivity through its comprehensive range of nutrient products.
How the Company Makes MoneyMosaic makes money primarily through the sale of its phosphate and potash products. In the Phosphates segment, revenue is generated by mining phosphate rock and processing it into finished phosphate products such as diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP), which are sold to agricultural businesses worldwide. In the Potash segment, the company extracts potash ore and converts it into a range of products that are used as fertilizer and in industrial applications. Key revenue streams include direct sales to agricultural retailers and distributors, long-term supply agreements, and exports to international markets. Mosaic's earnings are significantly influenced by global agricultural demand, crop prices, and nutrient application rates. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its production capacity and market reach.
Mosaic Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mosaic Co's financial performance presents a mixed picture. While the balance sheet remains strong with low leverage and solid equity, the income statement reflects declining revenue and profitability. Cash flow challenges are evident, with declining free cash flow and reduced cash conversion efficiency. The company faces pressures in maintaining profitability and growth, necessitating strategic adjustments to improve financial health.Income Statement
The income statement shows a notable decline in revenue and margins over the TTM period. Gross Profit Margin stands at 13.87%, and Net Profit Margin is 1.57%, both indicating a significant downturn from previous years. The Revenue Growth Rate is negative, reflecting a challenging market environment. EBIT Margin is at 5.96% and EBITDA Margin at 14.01%, both of which have decreased, suggesting reduced operational efficiency.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet indicates a stable financial position with Stockholders' Equity covering liabilities effectively. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is low at 0.07, highlighting conservative leverage. However, Return on Equity (ROE) is modest at 1.52%, suggesting limited profitability relative to equity. The Equity Ratio is strong at 50.08%, reflecting a solid capital base.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flows have weakened, with Free Cash Flow declining significantly. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is negative, indicating capital expenditure challenges. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is high, which is positive, but the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is weak, showing limited cash efficiency in generating profits.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 11.12B | 13.70B | 19.13B | 12.36B | 8.68B | Gross Profit |
| 1.51B | 2.21B | 5.76B | 3.20B | 1.06B | EBIT |
| 621.50M | 1.34B | 3.75B | 1.82B | -421.80M | EBITDA |
| 1.57B | 2.57B | 4.79B | 3.30B | 412.90M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 174.90M | 1.16B | 3.58B | 1.63B | 666.10M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 272.80M | 348.80M | 735.40M | 769.50M | 574.00M | Total Assets |
| 22.92B | 23.03B | 23.39B | 22.04B | 19.79B | Total Debt |
| 4.45B | 3.99B | 3.62B | 4.28B | 4.58B | Net Debt |
| 4.18B | 3.65B | 2.89B | 3.51B | 4.00B | Total Liabilities |
| 11.31B | 10.60B | 11.19B | 11.29B | 10.03B | Stockholders Equity |
| 11.48B | 12.29B | 12.05B | 10.60B | 9.58B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 47.40M | 1.00B | 2.69B | 898.40M | 412.00M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 1.30B | 2.41B | 3.94B | 2.19B | 1.58B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -1.26B | -1.32B | -1.26B | -1.32B | -1.19B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -131.90M | -1.48B | -2.68B | -682.10M | -283.80M |
Mosaic Co Technical Analysis
Positive
32.67
Price Trends
27.02
Positive
26.50
Positive
26.42
Positive
Market Momentum
1.50
Negative
79.55
Negative
93.57
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.14, above the 50-day MA of 27.02, and above the 200-day MA of 26.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.55 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.57 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MOS.
Mosaic Co Risk Analysis
Mosaic Co disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mosaic Co reported the most risks in the “Production” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mosaic Co Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $13.35B | 10.87 | 26.14% | 2.43% | 0.66% | 25.75% | |
76 Outperform | $8.92B | 21.90 | 7.08% | 2.71% | -8.59% | -37.13% | |
72 Outperform | $10.36B | 28.20 | 3.09% | 2.60% | -13.37% | -50.63% | |
64 Neutral | $507.37M | ― | -35.32% | ― | 0.63% | -369.50% | |
60 Neutral | $4.60B | 14.12 | 8.81% | 6.31% | 1.45% | -70.85% | |
50 Neutral | $3.12B | 107.81 | 4.98% | 4.89% | 0.75% | ― | |
49 Neutral | $1.96B | -1.15 | -21.28% | 3.71% | 1.17% | -30.86% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MOS
Mosaic Co
32.95
4.42
15.49%
CF
Cf Industries Holdings
84.39
11.96
16.51%
FMC
FMC
38.22
-25.56
-40.08%
IPI
Intrepid Potash
35.68
10.15
39.76%
SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
57.00
-10.11
-15.06%
ICL
Icl
6.84
2.30
50.66%
Mosaic Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 7.29%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance and growth in key segments like Mosaic Fertilizantes and Mosaic Biosciences, supported by robust global demand for fertilizers. However, operational challenges, weather impacts, and geopolitical uncertainties pose significant concerns, especially in the U.S. market. The sentiment leans positive with notable achievements outweighing the challenges.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Net income was $238 million and adjusted EBITDA came in at $544 million, driven by strong phosphate prices and improving potash prices.
Market Outlook and Demand
Fertilizer demand remains strong globally, with phosphate prices and stripping margins elevated. Potash prices are rising due to supply constraints.
Mosaic Fertilizantes Performance
Mosaic Fertilizantes delivered a strong operating performance with improved conversion and production unit costs. Expected further improvements in profitability for the second quarter.
Mosaic Biosciences Growth
Revenue more than doubled over the prior year and is on track to double for the full-year. Launched Neptunion in China, expanding market reach.
Capital Allocation and Asset Divestitures
Continued progress on shedding non-core assets. Strategic alternatives for the potash mine in Carlsbad and Taquari in Brazil are proceeding well.
Increased Potash Production
Increased potash production outlook and completion of the 400,000 ton per year hydrofloat project expected to boost production volumes.
Negative Updates
Operational Challenges and Downtime
Significant downtime at Bartow and New Wales plants for planned turnaround and reliability improvements, impacting production.
Weather Impact on Potash Production
Cold weather in Saskatchewan affected potash production at Belle Plaine, leading to higher production costs due to curtailment.
Trade Policy Uncertainties
Global trade conflicts and geopolitical forces continue to create uncertainties, particularly affecting the U.S. agriculture sector.
Fertilizer Affordability Concerns
Potential demand headwinds in the second half of the year due to more challenging fertilizer affordability, particularly in the U.S.
Company Guidance
During The Mosaic Company's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance reflecting a positive outlook for the year, driven by strong market fundamentals in fertilizer demand and pricing. Key metrics highlighted included a net income of $238 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $544 million for the quarter, with phosphate and potash realized prices at $623 and $223 per ton, respectively, both exceeding guidance ranges. The company expects continued strong performance, citing market access as a strategic advantage, particularly in Brazil, where operations are thriving. Production targets for phosphate were set between 7.2 to 7.6 million tons annually, with efforts underway to improve production costs and asset reliability. Potash production is also set to increase, with the completion of a 400,000-ton hydrofloat project expected to lower per-ton costs. Additionally, Mosaic is focused on reallocating capital from non-core assets to enhance shareholder returns, with a CapEx target of $1.2 to $1.3 billion and anticipated improvements in free cash flow conversion throughout the year.Mosaic Co Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Mosaic Co CEO Sells Shares Amid Personal Changes
Neutral
May 8, 2025
On May 8, 2025, Bruce M. Bodine, President and CEO of The Mosaic Company, sold 180,708 shares of the company’s common stock due to asset division following his marriage dissolution. Despite this sale, Bodine retains a substantial position in unvested equity awards, indicating continued involvement with the company.
Spark’s Take on MOS Stock
According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, MOS is a Outperform.
Mosaic Co’s overall stock score is driven by a solid earnings call with positive guidance, despite mixed financial performance characterized by declining revenue and cash flow challenges. The technical analysis indicates strong upward momentum, though valuation concerns exist with a high P/E ratio. The balance sheet strength partially offsets these concerns, but strategic adjustments are necessary to sustain growth.
To see Spark’s full report on MOS stock, click here.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.