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Cf Industries Holdings (CF)
NYSE:CF

Cf Industries Holdings (CF) AI Stock Analysis

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CF

Cf Industries Holdings

(NYSE:CF)

80Outperform
CF Industries Holdings is in a strong position due to robust profitability, strategic growth initiatives, and an attractive valuation. The earnings call provided positive guidance and highlighted key projects, reinforcing confidence in the company's future. However, caution is advised due to technical indicators suggesting potential resistance and market volatility risks. Overall, the stock is well-positioned for long-term growth, with current valuations making it an attractive proposition.
Positive Factors
Industrial Milestone
The Blue Point complex is projected to be the largest in the world in terms of autothermal reforming production capacity, signaling a significant industrial milestone.
Joint Venture and Risk Mitigation
The joint venture with JERA and Mitsui for the Blue Point project reduces CF's funding requirements to 40% and secures offtake for 60% of production.
Stock Buyback
The company bought back $434 million of stock, indicating confidence in its value.
Negative Factors
Earnings Revision
EBITDA for 1Q25 is revised down from $694M to $560M, indicating lower expected earnings.
Price Target Reduction
The price target for CF Industries has been reduced from $85 to $80.
Project Risk
The blue ammonia project looks high-risk, and recent developments have significantly raised the project's risks, including capex inflation and softer-than-expected demand.

Cf Industries Holdings (CF) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Cf Industries Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyCF Industries makes money through the production and sale of nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are sold to agricultural customers, distributors, and industrial users worldwide. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and ammonium nitrate. These products are essential for crop growth and are in high demand among farmers seeking to increase crop yields. CF Industries benefits from a strong distribution network and strategic partnerships with agricultural cooperatives and retailers, enabling broad market reach and stable sales channels. Additionally, the company may engage in long-term supply contracts, which provide predictable revenue streams and contribute to its financial stability.

Cf Industries Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
CF Industries Holdings demonstrates strong profitability and a robust balance sheet, with high margins and a secure equity position. However, recent revenue decline and a drop in free cash flow growth pose challenges that need addressing to sustain long-term stability. Overall, the company remains financially sound with opportunities for improvement in revenue growth.
Income Statement
78
Positive
CF Industries Holdings has shown strong profitability with a TTM gross profit margin of 34.09% and a net profit margin of 20.51%. However, there is a notable revenue contraction of 10.47% from the previous year, indicating some challenges in maintaining top-line growth. The EBIT margin stands at a robust 21.19%, and the EBITDA margin is 34.67%, showcasing solid operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.43, indicating a stable leverage position. The return on equity (ROE) is an impressive 16.04%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio of 56.36% highlights a solid capital structure with significant equity in relation to assets.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
The cash flow analysis shows a decrease in free cash flow by 22.38% compared to the previous year. Despite this, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.86, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.44, suggesting efficient conversion of profits into free cash flow.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
5.94B6.63B11.19B6.54B4.12B
Gross Profit
2.06B2.54B5.86B2.39B801.00M
EBIT
1.75B2.23B5.40B1.73B623.00M
EBITDA
2.81B3.27B6.28B3.07B1.53B
Net Income Common Stockholders
1.22B1.52B3.35B1.26B432.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.61B2.03B2.32B1.63B683.00M
Total Assets
13.47B14.38B13.31B12.38B12.02B
Total Debt
3.25B3.23B3.23B3.72B4.22B
Net Debt
1.63B1.20B902.00M2.09B3.54B
Total Liabilities
5.87B6.00B5.46B6.34B6.42B
Stockholders Equity
4.99B5.72B5.05B3.21B2.92B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.75B2.26B3.39B2.35B922.00M
Operating Cash Flow
2.27B2.76B3.85B2.87B1.23B
Investing Cash Flow
-469.00M-1.68B-440.00M-466.00M-299.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-2.21B-1.37B-2.70B-1.46B-542.00M

Cf Industries Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price82.41
Price Trends
50DMA
76.88
Positive
100DMA
81.84
Positive
200DMA
82.05
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.54
Negative
RSI
65.08
Neutral
STOCH
67.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 82.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 77.71, above the 50-day MA of 76.88, and above the 200-day MA of 82.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CF.

Cf Industries Holdings Risk Analysis

Cf Industries Holdings disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cf Industries Holdings reported the most risks in the “Ability to Sell” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Cf Industries Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
CFCF
80
Outperform
$13.65B12.0126.14%2.43%0.66%25.75%
ICICL
76
Outperform
$8.83B21.587.08%2.71%-8.59%-37.13%
UAUAN
74
Outperform
$862.06M11.2125.16%8.15%-7.27%-9.30%
MOMOS
72
Outperform
$9.66B56.113.09%2.60%-13.37%-50.63%
FMFMC
60
Neutral
$4.72B14.508.81%6.31%1.45%-70.85%
SMSMG
50
Neutral
$3.15B113.094.98%4.89%0.75%
49
Neutral
$1.96B-1.17-21.28%3.71%1.14%-30.35%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CF
Cf Industries Holdings
82.41
9.98
13.78%
UAN
CVR Partners
82.94
9.44
12.84%
FMC
FMC
36.79
-26.99
-42.32%
MOS
Mosaic Co
32.67
4.14
14.51%
SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
53.99
-13.12
-19.55%
ICL
Icl
6.91
2.37
52.20%

Cf Industries Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 2.13%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong financial performance with increased earnings and robust cash flow, driven by high operational efficiency and strategic growth initiatives. However, concerns were raised about potential volatility in ammonia prices, trade policy challenges, and capital inflation risks.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
CF Industries reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $312 million, or $1.85 per diluted share, marking a 60% increase compared to the first quarter of 2024. Earnings per share were approximately 80% higher, reflecting a significantly lower share count.
Robust Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns
The company generated adjusted EBITDA of $644 million and returned $530 million to shareholders in Q1 2025, including $434 million repurchasing 5.4 million shares. A new $2 billion share repurchase program was authorized, set to run through the end of 2029.
Operational Excellence and Strategic Growth Initiatives
Production network operated at 100% utilization rate with over 2.6 million tons of gross ammonia produced. Nearing completion of carbon capture and sequestration project at Donaldsonville Complex, expected to start in the second half of 2025. Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui presents a compelling growth opportunity.
Positive Market Outlook
Strong global nitrogen demand driven by low corn stocks and high fertilizer demand. USDA reported corn planting expectations of 95 million acres in the U.S., with low channel inventories supporting prices.
Negative Updates
Potential Volatility in Ammonia Prices
Expected startup of new ammonia capacity in North America may bring more volatility to global ammonia prices as trade flows adjust.
Challenges in Global Trade and Tariffs
Russian fertilizer continues to enter the U.S. market tariff-free, creating trade policy challenges and potential impacts on global trade flows.
Cost Inflation and Capital Expenditures
Concerns about potential capital inflation and strong demand for good labor as the company invests in new projects like Blue Point.
Company Guidance
In the CF Industries Q1 2025 earnings call, the company provided robust financial guidance and strategic updates. CF Industries reported an adjusted EBITDA of $644 million for Q1 2025, reflecting strong performance amid favorable global nitrogen industry conditions. The company announced its ongoing commitment to shareholder returns, having returned $5 billion to shareholders since 2022, and authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program to run through 2029. The production network achieved a 100% utilization rate, producing over 2.6 million tons of gross ammonia, with projections for approximately 10 million tons in 2025. The Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui was highlighted as a significant growth opportunity, positioning CF Industries to meet the increasing demand for low-carbon ammonia. Furthermore, the company is nearing completion of its carbon capture and sequestration project at the Donaldsonville Complex, targeting 45Q tax credit generation on up to 2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually. CF Industries anticipates strong cash generation and continues to expect a tightening global nitrogen supply-demand balance through the end of the decade.

Cf Industries Holdings Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
CF Industries Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting, Elects Directors
Neutral
May 8, 2025

On May 6, 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. held its annual meeting of shareholders, where various matters were voted upon. All nominated directors were elected to serve for a one-year term, while the compensation of the company’s named executive officers was approved. Additionally, KPMG LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. A shareholder proposal regarding the approval requirement for excessive golden parachutes was not passed.

Spark’s Take on CF Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, CF is a Outperform.

CF Industries Holdings receives a strong overall score due to its solid financial foundation, strategic initiatives, and attractive valuation. The company’s profitability and balance sheet strength are major positives, supported by favorable market conditions and strategic projects. However, technical indicators suggest caution in the short term due to mixed market momentum. The company’s proactive steps towards sustainability and low-carbon solutions are commendable and provide a long-term growth trajectory.

To see Spark’s full report on CF stock, click here.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
CF Industries Announces Joint Venture for Ammonia Facility
Positive
Apr 8, 2025

On April 8, 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. announced a joint venture with JERA Co., Inc. and Mitsui & Co., Inc. to construct a low-carbon ammonia production facility at the Blue Point Complex in Louisiana. The project, expected to start production in 2029, aims to be the world’s largest of its kind, with an annual capacity of 1.4 million metric tons. The initiative represents a significant step towards building a low-carbon ammonia value chain, addressing global demand for sustainable energy solutions, and is expected to qualify for tax credits under Section 45Q for carbon sequestration.

Spark’s Take on CF Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, CF is a Outperform.

CF Industries has a strong financial foundation with significant profitability and a stable balance sheet. The earnings call further solidifies confidence in the company’s strategic direction and market outlook. However, recent revenue decline and technical indicators suggest caution in the short term. The stock’s valuation appears attractive, highlighted by a low P/E ratio and reasonable dividend yield, which contribute positively to the overall score.

To see Spark’s full report on CF stock, click here.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.