Cf Industries Holdings (CF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.65B
• Dividend Yield: 2.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.51M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.31
• Revenue Growth: 0.66%
• EPS Growth: 25.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,800
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 62
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 1.97
• Shares Outstanding: 166,467,210
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,052,984
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,505,117
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.26
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $86.55
• Price Target Upside: 5.02% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

CF Industries Holdings is in a strong position due to robust profitability, strategic growth initiatives, and an attractive valuation. The earnings call provided positive guidance and highlighted key projects, reinforcing confidence in the company's future. However, caution is advised due to technical indicators suggesting potential resistance and market volatility risks. Overall, the stock is well-positioned for long-term growth, with current valuations making it an attractive proposition.

Positive Factors

Industrial Milestone

The Blue Point complex is projected to be the largest in the world in terms of autothermal reforming production capacity, signaling a significant industrial milestone.

Joint Venture and Risk Mitigation

The joint venture with JERA and Mitsui for the Blue Point project reduces CF's funding requirements to 40% and secures offtake for 60% of production.

Stock Buyback

The company bought back $434 million of stock, indicating confidence in its value.

Negative Factors

Earnings Revision

EBITDA for 1Q25 is revised down from $694M to $560M, indicating lower expected earnings.

Price Target Reduction

The price target for CF Industries has been reduced from $85 to $80.

Project Risk

The blue ammonia project looks high-risk, and recent developments have significantly raised the project's risks, including capex inflation and softer-than-expected demand.

Cf Industries Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

CF Industries makes money through the production and sale of nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are sold to agricultural customers, distributors, and industrial users worldwide. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and ammonium nitrate. These products are essential for crop growth and are in high demand among farmers seeking to increase crop yields. CF Industries benefits from a strong distribution network and strategic partnerships with agricultural cooperatives and retailers, enabling broad market reach and stable sales channels. Additionally, the company may engage in long-term supply contracts, which provide predictable revenue streams and contribute to its financial stability.

Cf Industries Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CF Industries Holdings demonstrates strong profitability and a robust balance sheet, with high margins and a secure equity position. However, recent revenue decline and a drop in free cash flow growth pose challenges that need addressing to sustain long-term stability. Overall, the company remains financially sound with opportunities for improvement in revenue growth.

Income Statement

CF Industries Holdings has shown strong profitability with a TTM gross profit margin of 34.09% and a net profit margin of 20.51%. However, there is a notable revenue contraction of 10.47% from the previous year, indicating some challenges in maintaining top-line growth. The EBIT margin stands at a robust 21.19%, and the EBITDA margin is 34.67%, showcasing solid operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.43, indicating a stable leverage position. The return on equity (ROE) is an impressive 16.04%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio of 56.36% highlights a solid capital structure with significant equity in relation to assets.

Cash Flow

The cash flow analysis shows a decrease in free cash flow by 22.38% compared to the previous year. Despite this, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.86, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.44, suggesting efficient conversion of profits into free cash flow.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
5.94B	6.63B	11.19B	6.54B	4.12B
	Gross Profit
2.06B	2.54B	5.86B	2.39B	801.00M
	EBIT
1.75B	2.23B	5.40B	1.73B	623.00M
	EBITDA
2.81B	3.27B	6.28B	3.07B	1.53B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.22B	1.52B	3.35B	1.26B	432.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.61B	2.03B	2.32B	1.63B	683.00M
	Total Assets
13.47B	14.38B	13.31B	12.38B	12.02B
	Total Debt
3.25B	3.23B	3.23B	3.72B	4.22B
	Net Debt
1.63B	1.20B	902.00M	2.09B	3.54B
	Total Liabilities
5.87B	6.00B	5.46B	6.34B	6.42B
	Stockholders Equity
4.99B	5.72B	5.05B	3.21B	2.92B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.75B	2.26B	3.39B	2.35B	922.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
2.27B	2.76B	3.85B	2.87B	1.23B
	Investing Cash Flow
-469.00M	-1.68B	-440.00M	-466.00M	-299.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-2.21B	-1.37B	-2.70B	-1.46B	-542.00M

Cf Industries Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 82.41
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 82.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 77.71, above the 50-day MA of 76.88, and above the 200-day MA of 82.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CF.

Cf Industries Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CF	80 Outperform	$13.65B	12.01	26.14%	2.43%	0.66%	25.75%
ICL	76 Outperform	$8.83B	21.58	7.08%	2.71%	-8.59%	-37.13%
UAN	74 Outperform	$862.06M	11.21	25.16%	8.15%	-7.27%	-9.30%
MOS	72 Outperform	$9.66B	56.11	3.09%	2.60%	-13.37%	-50.63%
FMC	60 Neutral	$4.72B	14.50	8.81%	6.31%	1.45%	-70.85%
SMG	50 Neutral	$3.15B	113.09	4.98%	4.89%	0.75%	―
Sector *	49 Neutral	$1.96B	-1.17	-21.28%	3.71%	1.14%	-30.35%

Cf Industries Holdings Corporate Events

CF Industries Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting, Elects Directors

On May 6, 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. held its annual meeting of shareholders, where various matters were voted upon. All nominated directors were elected to serve for a one-year term, while the compensation of the company’s named executive officers was approved. Additionally, KPMG LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. A shareholder proposal regarding the approval requirement for excessive golden parachutes was not passed.

Spark’s Take on CF Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, CF is a Outperform.

CF Industries Holdings receives a strong overall score due to its solid financial foundation, strategic initiatives, and attractive valuation. The company’s profitability and balance sheet strength are major positives, supported by favorable market conditions and strategic projects. However, technical indicators suggest caution in the short term due to mixed market momentum. The company’s proactive steps towards sustainability and low-carbon solutions are commendable and provide a long-term growth trajectory.

To see Spark’s full report on CF stock, click here.

CF Industries Announces Joint Venture for Ammonia Facility

On April 8, 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. announced a joint venture with JERA Co., Inc. and Mitsui & Co., Inc. to construct a low-carbon ammonia production facility at the Blue Point Complex in Louisiana. The project, expected to start production in 2029, aims to be the world’s largest of its kind, with an annual capacity of 1.4 million metric tons. The initiative represents a significant step towards building a low-carbon ammonia value chain, addressing global demand for sustainable energy solutions, and is expected to qualify for tax credits under Section 45Q for carbon sequestration.

Spark’s Take on CF Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, CF is a Outperform.

CF Industries has a strong financial foundation with significant profitability and a stable balance sheet. The earnings call further solidifies confidence in the company’s strategic direction and market outlook. However, recent revenue decline and technical indicators suggest caution in the short term. The stock’s valuation appears attractive, highlighted by a low P/E ratio and reasonable dividend yield, which contribute positively to the overall score.

To see Spark’s full report on CF stock, click here.