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Mosaic Co (MOS)
NYSE:MOS
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Mosaic Co
(NYSE:MOS)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
▲(7.69% Upside)
Mosaic Co's overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with attractive valuation and positive earnings call insights. The company's strategic advancements and favorable market conditions are significant strengths, although challenges in cash flow management and mixed technical indicators present risks.
Positive Factors
Potash Production Growth
Increased potash production guidance reflects strong market demand and enhances Mosaic's market position, supporting long-term revenue growth.
Cost Reductions in Brazil
Effective cost reductions in Brazil improve operational efficiency and profitability, enhancing Mosaic's competitive advantage in a key market.
New Distribution Capacity
The new facility in Brazil expands distribution capacity, increasing market reach and supporting long-term growth in a fast-growing region.
Negative Factors
Phosphate Production Challenges
Operational challenges in phosphate production can affect cost efficiency and profitability, posing risks to revenue stability and growth.
Cash Flow Management Concerns
Declining free cash flow limits Mosaic's ability to invest in growth and service debt, potentially impacting financial flexibility and stability.
Credit Issues in Brazil
Credit issues in Brazil could constrain sales growth and market penetration, affecting Mosaic's performance in a key geographic market.
Mosaic Co (MOS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.61B
Dividend Yield2.6%
Average Volume (3M)4.18M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.5
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth-7.71%
EPS Growth297.49%
CountryUS
Employees13,765
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.51
Shares Outstanding317,378,330
10 Day Avg. Volume4,193,276
30 Day Avg. Volume4,175,528
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.52
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.34
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.46
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$41.64Price Target Upside24.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
Mosaic Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionThe Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name. The company also produces and sells potash for use in the manufacturing of mixed crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, and for industrial use; and for use in the de-icing and as a water softener regenerant. In addition, it provides nitrogen-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and other ancillary services; and purchases and sells phosphates, potash, and nitrogen products. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, farmers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyMosaic Co generates revenue primarily through the sale of its phosphate and potash fertilizers to farmers and agricultural retailers. The company benefits from a diverse customer base that includes both domestic and international markets, with significant sales occurring in North America, South America, and Asia. Revenue streams include the sale of bulk and packaged fertilizers, with pricing influenced by global commodity markets, agricultural demand, and production costs. Additionally, Mosaic has strategic partnerships and contracts with agricultural cooperatives and distribution networks that enhance its market reach and stability. The company also invests in research and development to improve product efficacy and sustainability, which can lead to increased sales and customer loyalty.
Mosaic Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Mosaic Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant financial recovery and strategic advancements, particularly in potash production and cost reductions in Brazil. However, challenges in phosphate production and credit issues in Brazil presented notable obstacles. Overall, the positive developments and market dynamics outweigh the operational setbacks, indicating a strong setup for the second half of 2025.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Recovery
Net income of $411 million and adjusted EBITDA of $566 million, a significant recovery from a net loss of $162 million and adjusted EBITDA of $584 million in the same quarter of 2024.
Increase in Potash Production
Raised full-year potash production guidance to 9.3 million to 9.5 million tonnes due to strong market demand.
Successful Cost Reductions in Brazil
Achieved $106 million of the $150 million cost reduction target in Mosaic Fertilizantes, contributing to strong EBITDA performance.
New Distribution Capacity in Brazil
Inaugurated the Palmeirante facility, adding 1 million tonnes of distribution capacity in the fast-growing northern region.
Positive Market Dynamics for Phosphate
Global phosphate market remains tight with strong demand from India and limited additional capacity expected until 2027.
Strong Prospects for Mosaic Biosciences
First half revenues for Biosciences more than doubled compared to the previous year, with positive EBITDA contribution expected by Q4.
Negative Updates
Phosphate Production Challenges
Lower phosphate production volumes due to delayed maintenance and operational challenges affecting cost absorption and unit costs.
High Idle and Turnaround Expenses
Significant idle and turnaround expenses in Q2, particularly in phosphates, affecting overall cost structure.
Credit Issues in Brazil
Persisting credit challenges impacting fertilizer demand and necessitating a focus on customers with better credit profiles.
Unforeseen Delays in Maintenance
Delays in completing gypsum pumping stations at New Wales led to lower run rates in July, impacting production guidance.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter 2025 earnings call for The Mosaic Company, management highlighted several key metrics and projections. The company reported a net income of $411 million and adjusted EBITDA of $566 million, a significant recovery from a net loss of $162 million and adjusted EBITDA of $584 million in the same quarter of 2024. The company raised its full-year potash production guidance to 9.3 million to 9.5 million tonnes due to strong global demand and increased its phosphate production outlook to 6.9 million to 7.2 million tonnes. Mosaic's phosphate segment saw robust margins due to tight global supply, and the potash market transitioned from balanced to tight, with prices expected to hold. The Brazil segment performed strongly, with EBITDA anticipated to exceed $200 million in the third quarter. Cost reduction efforts in Brazil have been effective, achieving $106 million of the $150 million target. The company is also expanding its market access, notably with the new Palmeirante facility in Brazil, and expects Mosaic Biosciences to contribute positively to adjusted EBITDA by the fourth quarter. Mosaic anticipates a strong second half of 2025, driven by improved asset reliability and favorable market conditions.Mosaic Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mosaic Co shows a stable financial position with a modest revenue growth and improved gross profit margin. However, net profit margin remains low, and cash flow management presents significant challenges, particularly in free cash flow generation.Income Statement
Mosaic Co's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a modest revenue growth rate of 1.71% compared to the previous period, signaling a recovery from the previous year's decline. Gross profit margin has improved slightly to 14.47%, but net profit margin remains low at 3.32%, reflecting pressure on profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown improvement, indicating better operational efficiency. However, the company needs to focus on enhancing net profitability.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Mosaic Co reflects a stable financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is at a manageable level of 0.41, indicating prudent leverage. Return on equity has improved to 3.15%, but it remains relatively low, suggesting room for better utilization of equity. The equity ratio is strong, highlighting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet suggests financial stability with potential for improved returns.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Mosaic Co's cash flow statement reveals challenges in cash generation. The free cash flow growth rate has significantly declined by 97.98% in the TTM period, raising concerns about cash availability for investments and debt servicing. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate at 0.35, indicating adequate cash generation from operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.15, highlighting the need for improved cash flow management.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 11.25B | 11.12B | 13.70B | 19.13B | 12.36B | 8.68B |
| Gross Profit | 1.73B | 1.51B | 2.21B | 5.76B | 3.20B | 1.06B |
| EBITDA | 2.50B | 1.57B | 2.48B | 5.75B | 3.23B | 1.24B |
| Net Income | 940.00M | 174.90M | 1.16B | 3.58B | 1.63B | 666.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 24.30B | 22.92B | 23.03B | 23.39B | 22.04B | 19.79B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 286.20M | 272.80M | 348.80M | 735.40M | 769.50M | 574.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.63B | 4.45B | 3.99B | 3.81B | 4.41B | 4.75B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.72B | 11.31B | 10.60B | 11.19B | 11.29B | 10.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.44B | 11.48B | 12.29B | 12.05B | 10.60B | 9.58B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.30M | 47.40M | 1.00B | 2.69B | 898.40M | 412.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.18B | 1.30B | 2.41B | 3.94B | 2.19B | 1.58B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.18B | -1.26B | -1.32B | -1.26B | -1.32B | -1.19B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -114.40M | -131.90M | -1.48B | -2.68B | -682.10M | -283.80M |
Mosaic Co Technical Analysis
Neutral
33.43
Price Trends
33.79
Negative
34.24
Negative
30.00
Positive
Market Momentum
0.14
Negative
50.00
Neutral
71.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.27, below the 50-day MA of 33.79, and above the 200-day MA of 30.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MOS.
Mosaic Co Risk Analysis
Mosaic Co disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mosaic Co reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mosaic Co Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | 13.87B | 11.12 | 26.23% | 2.33% | 9.53% | 36.15% | |
65 Neutral | $10.61B | 11.52 | 7.80% | 2.60% | -7.71% | 297.49% | |
63 Neutral | 7.85B | 21.59 | 6.10% | 2.94% | -1.22% | -14.31% | |
58 Neutral | 4.44B | 45.98 | 2.24% | 6.53% | 1.16% | -92.85% | |
52 Neutral | 381.11M | -1.84 | -41.55% | ― | 11.93% | -311.34% | |
52 Neutral | 3.37B | 75.63 | -31.07% | 4.52% | -2.05% | 0.00% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MOS
Mosaic Co
33.43
8.58
34.53%
CF
Cf Industries Holdings
85.64
2.74
3.31%
FMC
FMC
35.53
-26.07
-42.32%
IPI
Intrepid Potash
28.62
4.75
19.90%
SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
58.43
-19.52
-25.04%
ICL
Icl
6.08
2.23
57.92%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.