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Mosaic Co
(NYSE:MOS)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$23.50
▼(-3.17% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/25/26
MOS scores below average primarily due to weakened profitability and especially poor free-cash-flow generation in TTM, which outweigh a comparatively steady balance sheet. Technicals are mixed with neutral momentum and a choppy trend, while valuation is pressured by an elevated P/E despite a supportive dividend yield. The earnings call and recent corporate actions add some support via capital discipline, working-capital initiatives, and refinancing, but near-term input-cost volatility and curtailments limit confidence in a fast recovery.
Positive Factors
Integrated supply position
Mosaic’s integrated mining, production, and sourcing footprint provides greater control over critical fertilizer inputs than a purely merchant model. Internal and contracted supply coverage can support product availability, reduce exposure to external disruptions, and help preserve competitiveness when raw-material markets are volatile.
Negative Factors
Profitability deterioration
The sharp decline in net margin and lower TTM revenue show that Mosaic’s earnings power has weakened materially from prior years. Persistently thin profitability reduces internal funding capacity, limits returns on its substantial asset base, and leaves results highly sensitive to fertilizer prices and production costs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated supply position
Mosaic’s integrated mining, production, and sourcing footprint provides greater control over critical fertilizer inputs than a purely merchant model. Internal and contracted supply coverage can support product availability, reduce exposure to external disruptions, and help preserve competitiveness when raw-material markets are volatile.
Read all positive factors
Mosaic Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Provides a breakdown of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, highlighting profitability and operational efficiency across different areas of the company.
Provides a breakdown of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, highlighting profitability and operational efficiency across different areas of the company.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMosaic Co (MOS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.88B
Dividend Yield4.08%
Average Volume (3M)8.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)107.2
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth8.84%
EPS Growth-167.87%
CountryUS
Employees13,249
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.20
Shares Outstanding317,895,660
10 Day Avg. Volume7,918,024
30 Day Avg. Volume8,064,071
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)0.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.63
P/FCF Ratio-14.30
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.10Price Target Upside11.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)0.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.13B
Mosaic Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating on a global scale via its various subsidiaries, The Mosaic Company specializes in the creation and distribution of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Its business is structured into three distinct segments: Phosphates, Pot...
How the Company Makes Money
Mosaic makes money primarily by selling finished and intermediate fertilizer products, with revenue largely tied to the volume it ships and the market prices it realizes for those products. Its core revenue streams come from two main segments: (1)...
Mosaic Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Mixed. The call details significant near-term challenges driven primarily by external sulfur supply disruptions and resulting phosphate curtailments, under-application of phosphate (driving agronomic risk) and some near-term cash pressure (approx. $500M expected shortfall). Offsetting these negatives are multiple company actions and strengths: secured sulfur contracts materially below spot for Q3, strong balance sheet and liquidity actions (term loan, refinancings, untapped revolver), meaningful SG&A reductions (-20% YoY), potash stability and growth projects (Esterhazy HydroFloat), resilient Brazil distribution and co-product margins, fast-growing Mosaic Biosciences, lower CapEx guidance ($1.2B) and an expected working capital release (forecast $300–500M) supporting sequential free cash flow improvement in Q3 and Q4. Overall the transcript portrays a company taking decisive defensive actions to manage a severe but (management believes) temporary market disruption, leading to a balanced view of risk and mitigation.Positive Updates
Q2 Production and Sales
Produced and sold 1.4 million tonnes of phosphate in Q2 despite market turmoil, demonstrating operational flexibility and strong global customer relationships.
Negative Updates
Severe Sulfur Supply Disruption
Ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure and Kazakhstan blockade materially disrupted global sulfur flows, pushing spot sulfur prices to unsustainably high levels and forcing production curtailments; management estimates global phosphate production could fall short of prior year by up to 30 million tonnes if disruptions persist.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q2 Production and Sales
Produced and sold 1.4 million tonnes of phosphate in Q2 despite market turmoil, demonstrating operational flexibility and strong global customer relationships.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Mosaic guided third-quarter realized raw‑material costs of about $700–710/ton for sulfur and $610–620/tonne for ammonia (Q2 averages were $522/ton sulfur and $621/tonne ammonia), DAP FOB pricing of $820–840/tonne and implied stripping margins “well above” historical averages; phosphate sales guidance for Q3 was 1.1–1.4 million tonnes (Q2 produced/sold 1.4M t) and Q2 realized stripping margin was $422/tonne. They cut full‑year CapEx to $1.2B (from $1.25B/$1.5B prior) with roughly $300M expected in Q3 and a drop in Q4, reduced SG&A ~20% YoY with further declines forecast, and expect sequential free‑cash‑flow improvement in Q3 and Q4. Mosaic reiterated a $300–500M working‑capital release this year (≈$100–200M in Q3, majority in Q4), Q2 Fertilizantes EBITDA ≈$60M, Q2 MOP costs $84/ton (lower in H2), Biosciences on track to double revenues with ~ $30M Brazil sales in Q3 (~40% margin, ≈$12M contribution), Q2 idle/turnaround charges ≈$60M with Q3 incremental idle/turnaround of roughly $10–20M, and strengthened liquidity via a $1.0B term loan, $500M CP refinanced in June (remainder in July) and an untapped $2.5B revolver.Mosaic Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 11.88B | 12.05B | 11.12B | 13.70B | 19.13B | 12.36B |
| Gross Profit | 1.37B | 1.82B | 1.51B | 2.21B | 5.76B | 3.20B |
| EBITDA | 1.71B | 2.61B | 1.57B | 2.48B | 5.75B | 3.23B |
| Net Income | 43.20M | 540.70M | 174.90M | 1.16B | 3.58B | 1.63B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 24.64B | 24.48B | 22.92B | 23.03B | 23.39B | 22.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 294.00M | 276.60M | 272.80M | 348.80M | 735.40M | 769.50M |
| Total Debt | 5.86B | 5.28B | 4.45B | 3.99B | 3.81B | 4.41B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.01B | 12.25B | 11.31B | 10.60B | 11.19B | 11.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.46B | 12.08B | 11.48B | 12.29B | 12.05B | 10.60B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -947.10M | -534.60M | 47.40M | 1.00B | 2.69B | 898.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 444.00M | 824.80M | 1.30B | 2.41B | 3.94B | 2.19B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.32B | -1.31B | -1.26B | -1.32B | -1.26B | -1.32B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 875.70M | 452.00M | -131.90M | -1.48B | -2.68B | -682.10M |
Mosaic Co Technical Analysis
Negative
24.27
Price Trends
23.47
Negative
22.67
Negative
24.14
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.34
Positive
34.56
Neutral
5.04
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.54, above the 50-day MA of 23.47, and above the 200-day MA of 24.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.04 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MOS.
Mosaic Co Risk Analysis
Mosaic Co disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mosaic Co reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mosaic Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $431.69M | 16.29 | 5.27% | 3.48% | 4.20% | ― | |
72 Outperform | $1.31B | 8.20 | 51.56% | 11.62% | 17.47% | 82.16% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $51.81B | 8.09 | 4.08% | 0.86% | 3.70% | -26.39% | |
57 Neutral | $6.48B | 20.74 | 5.02% | 4.15% | 10.92% | -16.91% | |
49 Neutral | $6.88B | 107.20 | 0.36% | 4.08% | 8.84% | -167.87% | |
44 Neutral | $1.39B | -0.39 | -118.57% | 3.74% | -21.31% | -2884.91% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MOS
Mosaic Co
21.55
-11.98
-35.73%
UAN
CVR Partners
124.58
43.35
53.36%
FMC
FMC
8.56
-22.05
-72.04%
IPI
Intrepid Potash
32.60
3.62
12.49%
ICL
Icl
4.97
-1.07
-17.70%
CTVA
Corteva
12.57
3.13
33.21%
Mosaic Co Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Mosaic Announces Leadership Transition in Operations Executive Role
Positive
Sep 25, 2026
On September 23, 2026, Mosaic disclosed that Executive Vice President of Operations Karen A. Swager plans to retire, resigning from her EVP role effective Dec. 1, 2026, and serving as a senior advisor into the second quarter of 2027. Her continued...
Business Operations and Strategy
Mosaic Co Redeems Senior Notes, Simplifies Capital Structure
Positive
Aug 28, 2026
On August 28, 2026, The Mosaic Company announced it will redeem all $304.9 million of its 4.050% senior notes due 2027 and all $124.1 million of its 5.375% senior notes due 2028, using cash on hand. The redemptions are scheduled for September 28, ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Mosaic Co Completes $2 Billion Debt Offering
Positive
Aug 17, 2026
On August 17, 2026, Mosaic closed a $2.0 billion debt offering, issuing $1.0 billion of 5.350% senior notes due 2031, $500 million of 5.650% notes due 2034 and $500 million of 5.900% notes due 2036 under an existing indenture. After underwriting d...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Mosaic Completes Debt Tender Offers, Reducing Outstanding Notes
Positive
Aug 17, 2026
On August 17, 2026, Mosaic reported the final results of its cash tender offers for several series of outstanding notes, which expired on August 14, 2026. The company accepted in full all 4.050% senior notes due 2027, 7.30% debentures due 2028 and...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Mosaic Announces Pricing for $1.4 Billion Debt Tender
Positive
Aug 14, 2026
On August 14, 2026, Mosaic announced the pricing terms for its previously launched cash tender offers to repurchase up to $1.4 billion of outstanding notes, targeting four series of debt maturing between 2027 and 2029, with a specific $150 million...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Mosaic Launches Large Debt Tender Offers for Refinancing
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
On August 10, 2026, Mosaic launched a series of cash tender offers to purchase up to $1.4 billion of its outstanding debt securities, targeting four tranches of senior notes and debentures maturing between 2027 and 2029, with a $150 million cap sp...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.