Mosaic Co (MOS)
NYSE:MOS
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Mosaic Co
(NYSE:MOS)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$23.50
▼(-4.35% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/15/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash generation/negative free cash flow despite a strong balance sheet. Technicals are also soft with the stock below key moving averages and negative MACD. These are partially offset by an attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend) and a mixed earnings outlook that combines strong volumes and cost actions with significant input-cost disruptions and curtailment-driven uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
Conservative leverage and a large equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This buffer supports funding of capex, working-capital swings, and strategic actions during cyclical downturns without immediate reliance on dilutive equity or distressed financing, preserving optionality.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Negative free cash flow and weak cash conversion mean reported profits are not reliably funding operations or investment. That reduces internal funding for maintenance capex, dividends, and debt reduction, increasing dependence on external financing or asset sales to sustain strategy.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
Conservative leverage and a large equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This buffer supports funding of capex, working-capital swings, and strategic actions during cyclical downturns without immediate reliance on dilutive equity or distressed financing, preserving optionality.
Read all positive factors
Mosaic Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Provides a breakdown of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, highlighting profitability and operational efficiency across different areas of the company.
Provides a breakdown of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, highlighting profitability and operational efficiency across different areas of the company.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMosaic Co (MOS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.28B
Dividend Yield3.7%
Average Volume (3M)9.23M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.0
Beta (1Y)0.94
Revenue Growth12.34%
EPS Growth-87.77%
CountryUS
Employees13,765
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.33
Shares Outstanding317,846,650
10 Day Avg. Volume9,901,488
30 Day Avg. Volume9,228,599
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)0.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.63
P/FCF Ratio-14.30
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$26.21Price Target Upside6.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)0.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.54B
Mosaic Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating on a global scale via its various subsidiaries, The Mosaic Company specializes in the creation and distribution of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Its business is structured into three distinct segments: Phosphates, Pot...
How the Company Makes Money
Mosaic makes money primarily by selling fertilizer and related crop nutrient products, with revenues largely tied to volumes sold and market prices for key commodities. Its main revenue streams come from (1) Phosphates: mining phosphate rock and m...
Mosaic Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed but pragmatic picture: the company reported notable operational and commercial achievements (1.9M tons sold, improved acid operating rates, potash strength, biosciences growth, and concrete cost/capital actions) while simultaneously describing severe near-term headwinds from raw-material (especially sulfur and ammonia) supply disruptions and price volatility that have forced temporary curtailments, sizable charges, and reduced visibility. Management emphasized resilience, portfolio optimization, and readiness to scale production back up when input markets normalize.Positive Updates
Strong Phosphate Sales Volumes
Sold 1.9 million tons of phosphate in Q1 — the highest quarterly phosphate sales volume in five years; finished-product quarterly capability target previously 1.8–2.0 million tons.
Negative Updates
Severe Raw Material Disruption and Price Volatility
Geopolitical conflicts (Persian Gulf, Ukraine, Iran) have disrupted raw material flows: ~20% of global phosphate, ~33% of urea, ~25% of ammonia and ~50% of seaborne sulfur originate in impacted regions; marginal sulfur and ammonia costs cited materially higher (management noted marginal sulfur around ~$1,200/ton and marginal ammonia around ~$800/ton), forcing operational reviews.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Phosphate Sales Volumes
Sold 1.9 million tons of phosphate in Q1 — the highest quarterly phosphate sales volume in five years; finished-product quarterly capability target previously 1.8–2.0 million tons.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated a cautious near-term outlook while giving specific metric guidance: Q1 phosphate sales were 1.9 million tons (the highest in five years) and phosphate finished-goods inventory fell by roughly $120 million; management still expects a $300–$500 million working-capital release for 2026; 2026 CapEx was cut by $250 million to $1.25 billion; a workforce reduction is expected to deliver $50 million of annualized savings (about $15 million in 2026); and idling/asset actions produced $442 million of charges (≈$328 million non‑cash) with $20–$30 million of annual maintenance CapEx savings. On input-cost guidance, realized sulfur averaged $379/ton in Q1 and is expected near $540/ton in Q2 (with marginal sulfur costs trading near $1,200/ton), ammonia is pegged around $610/ton for Q2 (marginal ~ $800/ton), and Q1 stripping margins were near $400/ton with Q2 booked sales (≈60% priced) implying stripping margins in excess of $400/ton; company targets conversion costs near $90/ton pre‑curtailment but expects $105–$110/ton if curtailments persist. Operationally, three of four U.S. acid plants ran at ≥80% acid rates in Q1 after New Wales turnaround, but Mosaic is temporarily curtailing roughly half of Louisiana’s (~1.4M tpa capacity) and half of Bartow’s (~2.0M tpa capacity) production to conserve sulfur exposure; potash remains strong (Canpotex sold through June) and Mosaic Biosciences expects to launch 8–10 products and double revenue in 2026.Mosaic Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.06B | 12.05B | 11.12B | 13.70B | 19.13B | 12.36B |
| Gross Profit | 1.68B | 1.82B | 1.51B | 2.21B | 5.76B | 3.20B |
| EBITDA | 2.40B | 2.61B | 1.57B | 2.48B | 5.75B | 3.23B |
| Net Income | 726.70M | 540.70M | 174.90M | 1.16B | 3.58B | 1.63B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 24.57B | 24.48B | 22.92B | 23.03B | 23.39B | 22.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 281.80M | 276.60M | 272.80M | 348.80M | 735.40M | 769.50M |
| Total Debt | 1.20B | 5.28B | 4.45B | 3.99B | 3.81B | 4.41B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.61B | 12.25B | 11.31B | 10.60B | 11.19B | 11.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.80B | 12.08B | 11.48B | 12.29B | 12.05B | 10.60B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -489.30M | -534.60M | 47.40M | 1.00B | 2.69B | 898.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 886.10M | 824.80M | 1.30B | 2.41B | 3.94B | 2.19B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.34B | -1.31B | -1.26B | -1.32B | -1.26B | -1.32B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 443.00M | 452.00M | -131.90M | -1.48B | -2.68B | -682.10M |
Mosaic Co Technical Analysis
Positive
24.57
Price Trends
22.84
Positive
25.00
Negative
26.28
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.21
Negative
52.81
Neutral
57.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.49, above the 50-day MA of 22.84, and below the 200-day MA of 26.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MOS.
Mosaic Co Risk Analysis
Mosaic Co disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mosaic Co reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mosaic Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $16.22B | 9.28 | 35.17% | 2.56% | 20.85% | 46.79% | |
69 Neutral | $463.31M | 32.38 | 2.85% | ― | 9.55% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $3.76B | 33.89 | -33.72% | 4.52% | -1.89% | 216.52% | |
62 Neutral | $6.63B | 25.34 | 4.32% | 3.36% | 7.80% | -32.94% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
55 Neutral | $7.28B | 10.01 | 5.92% | 3.70% | 12.34% | -87.77% | |
45 Neutral | $1.44B | -0.58 | -83.04% | 16.68% | -16.63% | -865.93% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MOS
Mosaic Co
22.90
-12.31
-34.95%
CF
Cf Industries Holdings
102.93
4.73
4.81%
FMC
FMC
11.55
-28.37
-71.07%
IPI
Intrepid Potash
34.49
-2.27
-6.18%
SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
64.69
6.47
11.11%
ICL
Icl
5.14
-1.41
-21.55%
Mosaic Co Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Mosaic Establishes $1 Billion Delayed Draw Term Loan
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 10, 2026, The Mosaic Company entered into a new credit agreement establishing a committed delayed draw term loan facility totaling up to $1 billion, split evenly between a 364-day $500 million tranche and a three-year $500 million tranche....
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Mosaic Shareholders Back Directors, Executive Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 29, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Mosaic shareholders elected twelve directors, including CEO Bruce M. Bodine and several incumbent and independent board members, each to a one-year term expiring at the 2027 annual meeting. The vote tall...
Business Operations and Strategy
Mosaic to Idle Brazilian Phosphate Operations, Pursue Sale
Negative
Apr 8, 2026
Mosaic, a leading global supplier of potash and phosphate fertilizers based in Tampa, Florida, also invests in biological crop solutions through its Mosaic Biosciences platform, and serves farmers in more than 40 countries with about 13,000 employ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.