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Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)
:IPI
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Intrepid Potash
(NYSE:IPI)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$41.00
▲( 11.11% Upside)
Positive Factors
Gross Profit Revision
2Q25 gross profit is revised from $7.2M to $12.2M, which is above the consensus.
Segment Performance
Trio gross margins reached their highest levels since 2022, in both margin dollars and percentage terms, as production grew 17% y/y.
Negative Factors
Earnings Per Share
1Q25 EPS is initiated at -$0.12 versus $0.11 consensus.
Gross Profit Forecast
2027 gross profit is revised downward from $26.8M to $21.3M, which is below the consensus.
Intrepid Potash (IPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$492.72M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)244.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.06
Revenue Growth0.63%
EPS Growth-369.50%
CountryUS
Employees468
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength60
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.39
Shares Outstanding13,316,799
10 Day Avg. Volume293,800
30 Day Avg. Volume244,254
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.65
Price to Book (P/B)1.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio34.42
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.00Price Target Upside-48.51% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
Intrepid Potash Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionIntrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) is a leading producer and supplier of potash and specialty fertilizers in the United States. The company primarily operates in the agricultural sector, providing essential nutrients that enhance plant growth and crop yields. Intrepid Potash also produces a variety of other minerals, including salt and magnesium chloride, which are used in various industrial applications. The company's operations are centered around its production facilities located in Utah and New Mexico.
How the Company Makes MoneyIntrepid Potash makes money through the extraction, production, and sale of potash and other minerals, which are essential components for fertilizers used in agriculture. The company's revenue model is driven by the demand for potash in the agricultural sector, where it is used to improve crop yields by providing essential nutrients. Additionally, Intrepid Potash generates revenue from the sale of salt and magnesium chloride, which are used in de-icing, dust control, and other industrial processes. The company benefits from strategic partnerships and contracts with agricultural producers and distributors, contributing to its earnings. Fluctuations in agricultural demand, commodity prices, and operational efficiencies are significant factors influencing the company's revenue.
Intrepid Potash Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Intrepid Potash faces challenges with profitability and revenue growth, impacting its income statement. The balance sheet remains stable with low debt levels, but declining equity is concerning. Cash flow generation shows resilience, yet free cash flow volatility needs attention. Focus on improving profitability and maintaining financial stability is crucial for future growth.Income Statement
Intrepid Potash has shown inconsistent revenue growth with a recent decline in annual revenue. The TTM data indicates a slight recovery in revenue. The company has been facing challenges in profitability, evident from negative EBIT and net income, leading to negative net profit margins. Historical data shows fluctuations in gross profit margins, indicating instability.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet is relatively stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating low leverage. The return on equity has been negative due to the losses incurred. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid asset base supported by equity. However, declining stockholders' equity poses a risk.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Intrepid Potash has maintained positive operating cash flow, although there has been a decline in free cash flow recently. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable due to adjustments for non-cash charges, but the negative net income affects overall cash flow performance. Fluctuating free cash flow growth highlights the volatility in cash generation.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 273.17M | 254.69M | 279.08M | 337.57M | 270.33M | 196.95M | Gross Profit |
| 36.63M | 29.08M | 36.85M | 141.41M | 55.76M | 10.53M | EBIT |
| -16.14M | -19.86M | -43.97M | 95.44M | 32.27M | -17.04M | EBITDA |
| 14.39M | 18.76M | -2.52M | 133.60M | 80.25M | 14.99M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -205.11M | -212.84M | -35.67M | 72.22M | 249.83M | -27.15M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 46.16M | 42.30M | 7.04M | 24.47M | 36.45M | 19.52M | Total Assets |
| 601.28M | 594.52M | 768.47M | 794.20M | 766.89M | 550.19M | Total Debt |
| 3.77M | 2.62M | 8.54M | 2.21M | 1.88M | 56.88M | Net Debt |
| -41.89M | -38.69M | 4.44M | -16.31M | -34.57M | 37.36M | Total Liabilities |
| 121.82M | 120.13M | 84.05M | 79.13M | 103.49M | 138.93M | Stockholders Equity |
| 479.45M | 474.39M | 684.43M | 715.08M | 663.40M | 411.26M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 14.65M | 33.59M | -21.83M | 20.13M | 59.28M | 14.70M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 41.88M | 72.50M | 43.23M | 88.82M | 79.07M | 31.14M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -28.62M | -29.53M | -59.55M | -79.18M | -14.82M | -15.16M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -1.65M | -5.72M | 1.89M | -27.70M | -47.28M | -17.04M |
Intrepid Potash Technical Analysis
Positive
36.90
Price Trends
31.27
Positive
28.32
Positive
26.43
Positive
Market Momentum
1.80
Positive
61.92
Neutral
33.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IPI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.49, above the 50-day MA of 31.27, and above the 200-day MA of 26.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IPI.
Intrepid Potash Risk Analysis
Intrepid Potash disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Intrepid Potash reported the most risks in the “Production” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
We face risks related to cybersecurity threats and incidents. Q4, 2024
2.
Artificial intelligence presents risks and challenges that can impact our business including by posing security risks to our confidential information, proprietary information, and personal data. Q4, 2024
Intrepid Potash Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (50)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $47.19B | 42.18 | 4.66% | 0.97% | >-0.01% | 108.45% | |
74 Outperform | $882.88M | 11.71 | 25.16% | 8.13% | -7.27% | -9.30% | |
73 Outperform | $8.48B | 21.79 | 6.70% | 2.85% | -3.48% | -18.34% | |
69 Neutral | $11.21B | 30.51 | 3.09% | 2.39% | -13.37% | -50.63% | |
65 Neutral | $5.07B | 15.58 | 8.81% | 5.72% | 1.45% | -70.85% | |
64 Neutral | $492.72M | ― | -35.32% | ― | 0.63% | -369.50% | |
50 Neutral | $2.00B | -1.02 | -21.34% | 3.70% | 2.00% | -30.65% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
IPI
Intrepid Potash
36.90
10.02
37.28%
UAN
CVR Partners
82.86
7.30
9.66%
FMC
FMC
39.24
-18.17
-31.65%
MOS
Mosaic Co
35.54
5.48
18.23%
ICL
Icl
6.46
1.76
37.45%
CTVA
Corteva
68.96
14.02
25.52%
Intrepid Potash Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 13.29%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong start to 2025 with significant improvements in financial performance and operational efficiency, particularly in potash and Trio segments. However, there are concerns about decreased potash pricing and modest future production expectations. Overall, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Improvement in Financial Performance
Intrepid generated adjusted EBITDA of $16.6 million and adjusted net income of $4.6 million, compared to prior year adjusted EBITDA of $7.7 million and an adjusted net loss of $3.1 million.
Potash Production and Cost Reduction
Produced 93,000 tons of potash with a COGS per ton of $313, representing a 17% improvement from the 2023 baseline and a 25% improvement from the recent peak.
Record Trio Sales
Trio achieved a quarterly sales record of 110,000 tons with pricing increased to an average of $345 per ton, driven by strong market demand and tight supply.
Steady Oilfield Solutions Performance
Oilfield Solutions segment reported revenue of $4.4 million with a gross margin of $1.7 million, or approximately 38% of revenue.
Positive Market Trends
Global potash market shows a trend line growth of roughly 2% per year, with strong demand and relatively tight supplies leading to price increases.
Negative Updates
Decreased Potash Pricing
There was a 20% decrease in average net realized potash pricing compared to last year despite a 40% increase in potash tons sold.
Modest Future Production Expectations
Potash production for 2025 expected to be close to 2024 results, with a slight decrease in Trio production anticipated in the second half of 2025.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, Intrepid Potash, Inc. reported significant improvements in its financial and operational metrics. The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $16.6 million and an adjusted net income of $4.6 million, a substantial improvement from the prior year's adjusted EBITDA of $7.7 million and adjusted net loss of $3.1 million. Potash production increased to 93,000 tons with a cost of goods sold (COGS) per ton of $313, marking a 17% improvement from the 2023 baseline. Trio production was 63,000 tons with COGS per ton at $235, representing a 22% improvement from the previous year. The Oilfield Solutions segment also contributed positively, generating $4.4 million in revenue and a gross margin of $1.7 million. For the second quarter, Intrepid anticipates potash sales volumes between 60,000 to 70,000 tons at an average net realized sales price of $350 to $360 per ton, and Trio sales volumes between 57,000 to 67,000 tons at an average price of $365 to $375 per ton. The company maintains its capital expenditures guidance of $36 million to $42 million for 2025.Intrepid Potash Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Intrepid Potash Expands Board and Strengthens Governance
Positive
Jan 15, 2025
Intrepid Potash announced the appointment of Gonzalo Avendano as an independent director, effective January 14, 2025, expanding the board from seven to eight members. Avendano, with over 30 years in finance and wealth management, is expected to bring valuable insights into capital markets and business strategy. He joins various board committees and will receive compensation for his partial service term. The company also entered a cooperation agreement with Clearway Capital Management LLC, where Avendano is an investment advisor, to avoid proxy contests and adhere to voting commitments until the 2027 stockholders meeting. This move highlights Intrepid’s efforts to enhance governance and align with shareholder interests.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.