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Intrepid Potash
(NYSE:IPI)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$35.00
▼(-6.37% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/07/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial strength (very low leverage and solid cash generation) and supportive price momentum (trading above key moving averages with positive MACD). These positives are tempered by only mid-range valuation on a ~20 P/E without a dividend yield provided, and by lingering top-line/margin volatility despite the recent return to profitability. A positive CFO appointment adds incremental support but is not a major standalone catalyst.
Positive Factors
Very low leverage
An exceptionally conservative capital structure gives Intrepid substantial resilience across commodity cycles and reduces interest and refinancing pressure. The large equity base relative to debt also preserves flexibility to maintain operations, fund projects, and respond to market changes without relying heavily on borrowing.
Negative Factors
Choppy revenue trajectory
A declining TTM revenue base indicates that the recent earnings recovery is not yet supported by consistent top-line expansion. Continued revenue variability can make operating planning less predictable and may limit the company’s ability to compound profits steadily across the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Very low leverage
An exceptionally conservative capital structure gives Intrepid substantial resilience across commodity cycles and reduces interest and refinancing pressure. The large equity base relative to debt also preserves flexibility to maintain operations, fund projects, and respond to market changes without relying heavily on borrowing.
Read all positive factors
Intrepid Potash (IPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$419.85M
Dividend Yield3.48%
Average Volume (3M)192.75K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.6
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth4.20%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees478
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.00
Shares Outstanding13,456,674
10 Day Avg. Volume206,157
30 Day Avg. Volume192,750
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.31
Price to Book (P/B)0.73
Price to Sales (P/S)1.21
P/FCF Ratio14.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.60
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.87
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$26.00Price Target Upside-30.44% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$270.17M
Intrepid Potash Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI), a company founded in 2000 and based in Denver, Colorado, specializes in the extraction and production of potash for markets within the United States and globally. The firm's operations are strategically divided into th...
How the Company Makes Money
Intrepid Potash makes money primarily by extracting/producing minerals and selling them into end markets under negotiated contracts and spot sales, with revenue driven by sales volumes and realized selling prices.
1) Potash fertilizer sales: The ...
Intrepid Potash Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated clear improvement in operational execution, pricing realization, and profitability, with notable increases in adjusted net income and EBITDA, stronger realized prices for potash and Trio, higher production, and a substantial $70 million asset sale that boosted liquidity. Management outlined ongoing operational projects and detailed 2026 guidance while flagging short-term COGS seasonality, fuel volatility, some mix-driven higher potash unit costs, and outstanding work required to de-risk lithium and other upside projects. Overall, positive operational momentum and a strengthened balance sheet outweigh the manageable near-term cost and execution risks.Positive Updates
Improved Profitability and EBITDA
Adjusted net income from continuing operations of $8.2 million in Q1 2026 versus $3.9 million in Q1 2025 (≈+110% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA of $19.0 million versus $14.6 million in Q1 2025 (≈+30% YoY).
Negative Updates
Higher Potash Unit Costs
Average potash segment cost of goods sold increased to $334/ton in Q1 2026 versus $313/ton in Q1 2025 (≈+6.7% YoY), attributed to higher production from higher-cost sites and mix effects.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Improved Profitability and EBITDA
Adjusted net income from continuing operations of $8.2 million in Q1 2026 versus $3.9 million in Q1 2025 (≈+110% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA of $19.0 million versus $14.6 million in Q1 2025 (≈+30% YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided specific near- and full‑year guidance: for Q2 it expects potash sales of 50,000–60,000 tonnes at an average net realized price of $380–$390/ton and Trio sales of 70,000–80,000 tonnes at $390–$400/ton; for full‑year 2026 it now expects potash production toward the upper end of its 270,000–285,000 tonne guidance and Trio production of 285,000–300,000 tonnes with Trio COGS around $230/ton. Capital spending for 2026 is expected to be $40–$50 million (primarily sustaining capex and the Wendover primary pond), and the company closed the sale of Intrepid South Ranch for $70 million (including an $8 million deposit), which has driven a post‑quarter cash balance of roughly $170 million (about $62 million incremental after quarter end) and will generate some interest income. Operationally, management highlighted recent quarter metrics that underpin the outlook — Q1 adjusted net income of $8.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $19.0 million, Q1 combined sales of 211,000 tons (potash 105,000; Trio 106,000) with Q1 average realized prices of $353/ton for potash and $387/ton for Trio — and flagged an early‑summer FEL‑3 milestone on the lithium project that should provide greater precision on build and operating costs.Intrepid Potash Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 294.46M | 298.33M | 254.69M | 279.08M | 337.57M | 270.33M |
| Gross Profit | 58.18M | 52.21M | 29.08M | 36.85M | 141.41M | 55.76M |
| EBITDA | 51.98M | 51.97M | 18.43M | -3.05M | 133.60M | 79.36M |
| Net Income | 26.31M | 11.19M | -212.84M | -35.67M | 72.22M | 249.83M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 649.92M | 632.18M | 594.52M | 768.57M | 794.20M | 766.89M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 184.99M | 83.54M | 42.30M | 7.04M | 24.47M | 36.45M |
| Total Debt | 3.24M | 5.31M | 4.25M | 6.19M | 2.21M | 1.88M |
| Total Liabilities | 134.73M | 140.75M | 120.13M | 84.14M | 79.13M | 103.49M |
| Stockholders Equity | 515.19M | 491.43M | 474.39M | 684.43M | 715.08M | 663.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 31.03M | 25.54M | 33.59M | -21.83M | 20.13M | 59.28M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 62.45M | 55.78M | 72.50M | 43.23M | 88.82M | 79.07M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 39.27M | -13.27M | -29.53M | -59.55M | -79.18M | -14.82M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.77M | -276.00K | -5.72M | 1.89M | -27.70M | -47.28M |
Intrepid Potash Technical Analysis
Negative
37.38
Price Trends
36.03
Negative
35.40
Negative
36.56
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.30
Positive
29.61
Positive
20.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IPI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 37.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.49, above the 50-day MA of 36.03, and above the 200-day MA of 36.56, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.61 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IPI.
Intrepid Potash Risk Analysis
Intrepid Potash disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Intrepid Potash reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Intrepid Potash Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $419.85M | 15.62 | 5.27% | 3.48% | 4.20% | ― | |
72 Outperform | $1.34B | 8.38 | 51.56% | 11.39% | 17.47% | 82.16% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
57 Neutral | $6.29B | 19.87 | 5.02% | 4.32% | 10.92% | -16.91% | |
52 Neutral | $3.25B | 44.74 | -21.87% | 4.72% | -1.95% | 44.91% | |
49 Neutral | $5.62B | 88.40 | 0.36% | 4.98% | 8.84% | -167.87% | |
45 Neutral | $782.40M | -0.23 | -118.57% | 6.36% | -21.31% | -2884.91% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
IPI
Intrepid Potash
30.77
2.54
9.00%
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ICL
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.