Want to see MOMO full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Hello Group
(NASDAQ:MOMO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▼(-13.34% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
The score is anchored by strong balance-sheet strength and positive cash generation, plus a low P/E that suggests inexpensive valuation. These positives are tempered by weakening revenue trajectory and cautious guidance (domestic pressure and margin headwinds), and by a clearly bearish technical backdrop with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative momentum indicators.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet strength
Very low leverage and substantial liquidity give Hello Group meaningful financial flexibility. This supports continued investment in product development and overseas expansion while reducing refinancing pressure and improving resilience if domestic monetization remains weak over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Domestic revenue pressure
Mainland China remains a major source of revenue, yet its decline reflects more than ordinary volatility: tax tightening is affecting agencies and broadcasters, while consumer spending is weaker. Persistent pressure could limit monetization and offset gains from the overseas portfolio.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet strength
Very low leverage and substantial liquidity give Hello Group meaningful financial flexibility. This supports continued investment in product development and overseas expansion while reducing refinancing pressure and improving resilience if domestic monetization remains weak over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Hello Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Reveals how different parts of the business contribute to overall revenue, highlighting areas of strength and potential growth or decline within the company’s operations.
Reveals how different parts of the business contribute to overall revenue, highlighting areas of strength and potential growth or decline within the company’s operations.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHello Group (MOMO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$677.96M
Dividend Yield4.75%
Average Volume (3M)1.04M
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.6
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth-0.36%
EPS Growth45.28%
CountryUS
Employees1,400
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.94
Shares Outstanding103,453,450
10 Day Avg. Volume1,172,677
30 Day Avg. Volume1,038,876
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.61
Price to Book (P/B)0.70
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio11.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap-0.50
Enterprise Value/Revenue-0.03
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-0.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.23
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)5.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.78B
Hello Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hello Group Inc. delivers a suite of mobile-centric social and entertainment offerings across the People's Republic of China. The company's flagship "Momo" platform comprises its primary mobile application along with numerous associated features, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Hello Group primarily monetizes its apps through value-added services and live/interactive entertainment-related spending by users. Key revenue streams historically include: (1) Live video and interactive entertainment: users purchase virtual gift...
Hello Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call had a mixed but cautiously constructive tone. Overseas operations delivered strong growth, MENA diversification improved, several products showed better profitability, Momo user engagement remained resilient, and the company returned to non-GAAP profitability. However, domestic revenue faced significant pressure from weaker spending among high-value users, tax-related agency challenges, and Alipay-related effects on Tantan, while Q3 and full-year revenue expectations were reduced and margins remained under pressure. The highlights outweighed the lowlights due to strong overseas momentum, improving profitability in newer businesses, and resilient platform metrics.Positive Updates
Overseas Revenue Growth and Diversification
Overseas revenue increased 52% year over year and 13% quarter over quarter to RMB 673 million, representing 27% of total revenue versus 17% in the same period last year. Growth was driven by strong momentum from new MENA products, consolidation of overseas dating products acquired last year, recovery from the seasonal Ramadan low, and new product and seasonal features.
Negative Updates
Film Production Losses
With both movies released, the company recognized roughly RMB 60 million of additional losses in Q2, creating incremental pressure on the full-year bottom line relative to earlier expectations.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Overseas Revenue Growth and Diversification
Overseas revenue increased 52% year over year and 13% quarter over quarter to RMB 673 million, representing 27% of total revenue versus 17% in the same period last year. Growth was driven by strong momentum from new MENA products, consolidation of overseas dating products acquired last year, recovery from the seasonal Ramadan low, and new product and seasonal features.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q3, the company estimates revenue in the range from RMB 2.4 billion to RMB2.5 billion, representing a decrease of 9.4% to 5.7% year-over-year; at midpoint, Mainland China business will decline by high-teens percentage-wise while overseas revenue is expected to grow by high-thirties percentage-wise. Q3 guidance implies roughly a high teens year over year decline for the domestic business, while no specific Q4 number was provided. The original 3 billion renminbi target for overseas revenue for 2026 looks a little bit of a stretch, and the company would rather take 100 or 200 million down from that target. Full year group revenue decline is expected to be somewhat larger, maybe to the mid-single-digit range, while the low teens adjusted operating margin for 2026 remains achievable provided that the company executes well on the cost side and continues to improve operating efficiency. The combined revenue of the 2 new MENA products will surpass SoulChill in Q3; Yahalan has already crossed breakeven, Ammar is likely around half a year away, and both products are expected to contribute to group profit next year.Hello Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 10.10B | 10.37B | 10.56B | 12.00B | 12.70B | 14.58B |
| Gross Profit | 3.77B | 3.92B | 4.12B | 4.98B | 5.28B | 6.19B |
| EBITDA | 1.49B | 1.82B | 2.01B | 2.79B | 2.23B | -1.76B |
| Net Income | 1.11B | 804.01M | 1.04B | 1.96B | 1.48B | -2.91B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.34B | 13.79B | 18.38B | 16.23B | 15.83B | 18.11B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.52B | 8.68B | 6.15B | 6.89B | 10.62B | 8.43B |
| Total Debt | 68.19M | 128.91M | 4.58B | 2.29B | 2.77B | 4.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.47B | 2.70B | 6.95B | 4.24B | 4.90B | 7.53B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.88B | 10.88B | 11.43B | 11.80B | 10.78B | 10.45B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.02B | 671.78M | 1.35B | 1.70B | 1.15B | 1.46B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.49B | 1.15B | 1.64B | 2.28B | 1.23B | 1.56B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 398.67M | 159.99M | -558.89M | 2.41B | 1.72B | 2.55B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.84B | -5.29B | 236.20M | -1.70B | -3.43B | -1.79B |
Hello Group Technical Analysis
Negative
5.77
Price Trends
5.35
Negative
5.60
Negative
5.89
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.18
Negative
32.18
Neutral
31.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOMO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.87, above the 50-day MA of 5.35, and below the 200-day MA of 5.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MOMO.
Hello Group Risk Analysis
Hello Group disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hello Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hello Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $3.97B | 18.96 | 3.35% | 6.66% | 7.52% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $9.43B | 13.83 | -303.57% | 1.92% | 1.70% | 40.52% | |
64 Neutral | $677.96M | 4.56 | 10.19% | 4.75% | -0.36% | 45.28% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
52 Neutral | $335.20M | -0.66 | -88.98% | ― | -13.33% | 45.52% | |
49 Neutral | $119.81M | -25.14 | -1.63% | 408.47% | -11.02% | 82.53% | |
45 Neutral | $41.17M | -0.48 | -86.55% | ― | -5.38% | -2490.76% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
MOMO
Hello Group
4.72
-2.06
-30.39%
JOYY
JOYY
81.05
29.21
56.34%
SJ
Scienjoy Holding
0.97
0.46
90.00%
DOYU
DouYu International Holdings
3.97
-3.03
-43.29%
MTCH
Match Group
41.09
9.68
30.83%
BMBL
Bumble
2.54
-2.70
-51.53%
Hello Group Corporate Events
Hello Group Swings to Profit as Overseas Social Apps Soften China Slowdown
Sep 3, 2026
Hello Group Inc., a major China-based online social networking and social entertainment provider best known for its Momo and Tantan apps, continues to pivot toward a more geographically diversified portfolio. The company is increasingly leveraging...
Hello Group COO Sichuan Zhang Steps Down but Remains on Board
Jul 31, 2026
Hello Group Inc., a Beijing-based Chinese social and online services company listed in the United States, operates consumer-focused digital platforms and mobile applications in the broader social networking and internet services sector. Its govern...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.