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Hello Group (MOMO) AI Stock Analysis

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Hello Group

(NASDAQ:MOMO)

Select Model

Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:64Neutral

Price Target:

$6.00

▼(-14.04% Downside)

Action:Reiterated

Date:06/04/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial stability (very low leverage) but offset by deteriorating growth and profitability plus weakening free-cash-flow trends. Low valuation supports the rating, while weak technical momentum and mixed guidance—strong overseas growth but continued domestic pressure—cap upside.

Positive Factors

Very low leverage / strong balance sheet

Extremely low leverage and a large equity base materially reduce financial risk and increase strategic optionality. This balance-sheet strength supports continued buybacks/dividends, funds sustained R&D or overseas expansion, and provides a buffer versus cyclical domestic revenue shocks.

Negative Factors

Material domestic revenue decline

Regulatory tax enforcement and platform-payment policy changes have structurally impaired domestic live and membership monetization. Given China remains the core market, persistent mid‑teens declines will erode scale, reduce network effects, and limit long‑term monetization levers unless regulatory dynamics ease.

Read all positive and negative factors

Positive Factors

Negative Factors

Very low leverage / strong balance sheet

Read all positive factors

Hello Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Reveals how different parts of the business contribute to overall revenue, highlighting areas of strength and potential growth or decline within the company’s operations.

Chart InsightsHello Group's Mobile Games revenue has ceased entirely by mid-2024, indicating a strategic exit or significant market shift. Live Video Service revenue is declining steadily, suggesting challenges in maintaining user engagement or competition pressures. Conversely, Games and Related Value Added Services show a strong rebound in 2025, potentially driven by new offerings or market expansion. Mobile Marketing and Other Services also exhibit a resurgence in 2025, hinting at diversification efforts or successful marketing strategies. This mixed performance highlights the company's adaptation to changing market dynamics and strategic pivots.

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Hello Group (MOMO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$856.93M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)782.34K

Price to Earnings (P/E)8.7

Beta (1Y)0.55

Revenue Growth-1.21%

EPS Growth-41.09%

CountryUS

Employees1,390

SectorCommunication Services

Sector Strength97

IndustryInternet Content & Information

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)4.56

Shares Outstanding116,883,500

10 Day Avg. Volume1,139,584

30 Day Avg. Volume782,336

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.59

Price to Book (P/B)0.70

Price to Sales (P/S)0.73

P/FCF Ratio11.33

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.89

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.07

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.20

Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.43

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusN/A

Number of Analyst Covering0

EPS Forecast (FY)6.02

Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.14B

Hello Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hello Group Inc. delivers a suite of mobile-centric social and entertainment offerings across the People's Republic of China. The company's flagship "Momo" platform comprises its primary mobile application along with numerous associated features, ...

How the Company Makes Money

Hello Group generates revenue primarily from services offered within its mobile applications. Historically, a major revenue stream has been live video services on Momo, where the company earns money from users purchasing virtual gifts and other pa...

Hello Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 02, 2026

(Q1-2026)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The call presented a mixed picture: strong and fast-growing overseas momentum (44% YoY) and improved margins/operating income contrasted with meaningful domestic challenges—primarily tax enforcement impacts on Momo agencies and Alipay policy changes hitting Tantan's membership monetization—leading to notable revenue and net income declines. Management emphasized cost discipline, product and AI-driven initiatives, and a clear path for overseas products toward profitability, while revising domestic full-year expectations modestly downward and keeping margin targets intact. Overall, positives (overseas growth, margin resilience, product improvements, cost control) partially offset significant domestic headwinds and a sizable YoY net income decline.

Positive Updates

Group Revenue and Overseas Growth

Total group revenue of RMB 2.39 billion in Q1 2026 (down 5% YoY) with strong overseas growth: overseas revenue RMB 597 million, up 44% YoY and increasing to 25% of group revenue (vs 16% year-ago).

Negative Updates

Domestic Revenue Decline

Domestic revenue declined to RMB 1.79 billion, down 15% YoY. Mainland value-added service revenue was RMB 1.76 billion, down 15% YoY and 9% QoQ, driven primarily by tax scrutiny and softer consumer spending.

Read all updates

Q1-2026 Updates

Positive

Negative

Group Revenue and Overseas Growth

Total group revenue of RMB 2.39 billion in Q1 2026 (down 5% YoY) with strong overseas growth: overseas revenue RMB 597 million, up 44% YoY and increasing to 25% of group revenue (vs 16% year-ago).

Read all positive updates

Company Guidance

Management guided Q2 revenue of RMB 2.45–2.55 billion (a year‑over‑year decline of roughly 6.5% to 2.7%), noting that at the midpoint Mainland China revenue is expected to fall by high‑teens while overseas revenue is expected to grow by high‑50s y/y; for full‑year 2026 they now expect group revenue to be slightly down year‑over‑year (a couple percentage points), Mainland China revenue to decline around mid‑teens (worse than prior low‑teens view), overseas revenue to reach about RMB 3.0 billion (± ~RMB100 million), and adjusted operating margin still targeted in the low‑teens, with the company pursuing further cost and efficiency actions as needed.

Hello Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: a very strong, de-risked balance sheet (very low leverage) offsets weakening operations. Revenue is slightly down in the TTM and has trended lower for years, margins have compressed sharply versus 2023, and free cash flow declined with only moderate conversion versus net income.

Income Statement

Positive

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

Cash Flow

Neutral

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.23B	10.37B	10.56B	12.00B	12.70B	14.58B
Gross Profit	3.89B	3.92B	4.12B	4.98B	5.28B	6.19B
EBITDA	1.77B	1.82B	2.01B	2.79B	2.23B	-1.76B
Net Income	737.07M	804.01M	1.04B	1.96B	1.48B	-2.91B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.67B	13.79B	18.38B	16.23B	15.83B	18.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.50B	8.68B	6.15B	6.89B	10.62B	8.43B
Total Debt	90.40M	128.91M	4.58B	2.29B	2.77B	4.83B
Total Liabilities	2.85B	2.70B	6.95B	4.24B	4.90B	7.53B
Stockholders Equity	10.82B	10.88B	11.43B	11.80B	10.78B	10.45B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	622.85M	671.78M	1.35B	1.70B	1.15B	1.46B
Operating Cash Flow	1.10B	1.15B	1.64B	2.28B	1.23B	1.56B
Investing Cash Flow	-697.67M	159.99M	-558.89M	2.41B	1.72B	2.55B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.75B	-5.29B	236.20M	-1.70B	-3.43B	-1.79B

Hello Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price6.98

Price Trends

50DMA

5.96

Negative

100DMA

5.97

Negative

200DMA

6.33

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.12

Negative

RSI

45.63

Neutral

STOCH

34.47

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOMO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.64, above the 50-day MA of 5.96, and above the 200-day MA of 6.33, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MOMO.

Hello Group Risk Analysis

Hello Group disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hello Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Hello Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JOYY	79 Outperform	$3.32B	14.98	3.47%	4.25%	1.02%	―
TME	75 Outperform	$12.02B	9.91	10.97%	1.02%	17.25%	-3.49%
WB	67 Neutral	$1.77B	4.53	9.89%	8.13%	1.64%	4.56%
Z	65 Neutral	$7.21B	120.04	1.28%	―	16.83%	―
MOMO	64 Neutral	$856.93M	8.65	6.68%	―	-1.21%	-41.09%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
NBIS	60 Neutral	$69.50B	82.36	16.37%	―	443.93%	―

* Communication Services Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MOMO

Hello Group

5.80

-2.25

-27.91%

NBIS

Nebius Group

276.17

225.86

448.94%

Zillow Group Class C

31.52

-39.98

-55.92%

JOYY

65.99

18.69

39.50%

Weibo

7.26

-1.65

-18.56%

TME

Tencent Music Entertainment Group

8.35

-10.40

-55.47%

Hello Group Corporate Events

Hello Group Q1 2026 Results Highlight Revenue Dip in China, Fast-Growing Overseas Business and Capital Returns

Jun 2, 2026

Hello Group Inc. reported unaudited results for the first quarter of 2026 on June 2, showing a 5.3% year-on-year decline in net revenues to RMB2.39 billion as domestic Momo and Tantan businesses softened and paying users fell, while overseas reven...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 04, 2026