Bumble (BMBL) AI Stock Analysis

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Bumble

(NASDAQ:BMBL)

Select Model

Neutral 52 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:52Neutral

Price Target:

$6.50

▼(-7.80% Downside)

Bumble's overall stock score reflects significant challenges in financial performance, particularly with profitability and leverage. While strategic shifts have improved operational efficiency, they have also led to revenue and user base declines. Technical indicators and valuation metrics further highlight the stock's current risks.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

Bumble's focus on operational efficiency by reducing costs and restructuring enhances its ability to maintain profitability and invest in growth.

Cash Flow Strength

Strong cash flow generation supports Bumble's financial stability, enabling reinvestment in strategic initiatives and buffering against economic volatility.

Increase in Full-Price Payers

The shift towards full-price subscriptions indicates a more sustainable revenue model, enhancing long-term revenue stability and customer quality.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

The decline in revenue suggests challenges in maintaining growth, impacting Bumble's ability to scale and compete effectively in the market.

Impairment Loss

Significant impairment losses indicate potential overvaluation of assets, affecting financial health and investor confidence.

Decline in Paying Users

A decline in paying users can hinder revenue growth and market share, posing challenges to Bumble's competitive positioning and user engagement.

Bumble (BMBL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$733.27M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)3.90M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.86

Revenue Growth-5.06%

EPS Growth-2318.18%

CountryUS

Employees1,200

SectorCommunication Services

Sector Strength97

IndustrySoftware - Application

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-2.45

Shares Outstanding104,010,520

10 Day Avg. Volume3,053,778

30 Day Avg. Volume3,898,427

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio>-0.01

Price to Book (P/B)1.19

Price to Sales (P/S)0.92

P/FCF Ratio10.17

Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.01

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.43

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.03

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.28

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$6.75

Price Target Upside-4.26% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering17

Bumble Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBumble Inc. (BMBL) is a technology company that operates a suite of dating and social networking applications, including its flagship platform Bumble, as well as Badoo and Bumble BFF. Founded in 2014, Bumble distinguishes itself by empowering women to make the first move in heterosexual matches, promoting safety and respect in online dating. The company focuses on creating a positive and inclusive community for users seeking romantic relationships, friendships, or business networking opportunities.

How the Company Makes MoneyBumble generates revenue primarily through its subscription services and in-app purchases. The company offers various premium subscription tiers, such as Bumble Boost and Bumble Premium, which provide users with enhanced features like the ability to see who liked them, rematch with expired connections, and extend matches. Additionally, Bumble earns revenue through the sale of in-app features, such as SuperSwipes and Bumble Coins, which allow users to enhance their profiles and boost their visibility. Strategic partnerships and advertising opportunities further contribute to Bumble's earnings, as the company collaborates with brands to create engaging ad content within its platforms.

Bumble Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Total Paying Users

Total Paying Users
Counts the number of users who have subscribed or made purchases, indicating the company's success in converting free users to paying customers and driving revenue.

Chart InsightsBumble's total paying users have experienced a decline, reflecting a strategic pivot towards quality over quantity. Despite the drop to 3.8 million users, the focus on full-price subscriptions has increased their share to 80%, boosting ARPPU. This aligns with Bumble's cost-cutting measures and AI-driven product enhancements, which have led to record EBITDA margins. However, the company faces challenges with a projected revenue decline and user reduction, underscoring the importance of its new initiatives like the Bumble BFF app for future growth.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Bumble Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Bumble's earnings call reflects a strategic shift towards improving user quality and operational efficiency, resulting in cost savings and improved profitability metrics. However, this comes at the expense of a significant revenue decline and user base contraction. While the company is focused on long-term sustainable growth, current challenges suggest a balanced outlook.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Cost Reduction and Operational Efficiency

Bumble removed over $100 million from its cost base by streamlining operations, restructuring headcount, and shifting to a more efficient organic marketing engine. These efforts contributed to record EBITDA margins in Q2.

Increase in Full-Price Payers and ARPPU

Bumble's emphasis on sustainable full-price subscriptions led to an increase in full-price payer base quarter-over-quarter. Subscriptions now represent approximately 80% of total payers, up from 70% in Q1, reflected in ARPPU increases.

Strong Cash Flow and Adjusted EBITDA

Bumble reported strong cash flow of $71 million in Q2 and year-to-date adjusted EBITDA totaled $159 million, representing a 32% margin.

Introduction of Trust and Safety Features

Bumble introduced new trust-first product updates, including phone and ID verification, mandatory selfie checks, and richer profile building tools to enhance user experience and safety.

Negative Updates

Revenue Decline

Bumble's Q3 revenue guidance reflects a year-over-year decrease of 12% to 9%, attributed to ongoing efforts to improve member base quality and reduce performance marketing.

Impairment Loss

Bumble reported a GAAP net loss of $367 million in Q2, primarily driven by an impairment loss of $405 million.

Decline in Total Paying Users

Total paying users in Q2 were 3.8 million, showing a decline due to strategic shifts in member base improvement and reduced performance marketing.

Company Guidance

During the Bumble Q2 2025 earnings call, CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd highlighted the company's strategic shift towards prioritizing quality over quantity, which has included removing over $100 million from the cost base through streamlining operations and marketing strategies. This shift helped achieve record EBITDA margins in Q2. The company also emphasized improving the quality of its member base, noting that full-price subscriptions now account for approximately 80% of total payers, up from 70% in Q1. The focus on quality has resulted in a decline in payer numbers due to the phase-out of low-monetization promotions and the removal of low-quality profiles. Despite a GAAP net loss driven by a $405 million impairment, Bumble reported a Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $95 million, representing 38% of revenue, with $71 million in cash flow from operations. Guidance for Q3 includes expected revenue between $240 million and $248 million, and adjusted EBITDA between $79 million and $84 million, with marketing spend anticipated to increase in H2 2025 in support of brand initiatives.

Bumble Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bumble faces challenges with declining revenue growth and negative profit margins, as reflected in the income statement. The balance sheet shows increased leverage, posing potential risks. However, resilience in cash flow generation provides some support for future initiatives.

Income Statement

Neutral

Bumble's income statement shows a concerning trend with declining revenue growth and negative profit margins. The TTM data reveals a revenue decline of 1.94% and a significant net loss, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability. The gross profit margin remains strong at over 70%, but the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins highlight operational inefficiencies and cost management issues.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.07 in the TTM, indicating increased leverage. The return on equity is negative, suggesting that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholder investments. However, the equity ratio remains stable, showing a reasonable proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis shows some positive aspects, with a notable free cash flow growth of 23.52% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating good cash generation relative to reported earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests that cash flow is not fully translating into profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.03B	1.07B	1.05B	903.50M	760.91M	582.18M
Gross Profit	725.39M	752.81M	744.00M	654.13M	555.34M	332.59M
EBITDA	-647.19M	-634.68M	121.40M	7.60M	-19.03M	-20.28M
Net Income	-849.32M	-557.01M	-4.21M	-79.75M	309.81M	98.12M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.16B	2.52B	3.63B	3.69B	3.78B	3.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	261.74M	204.32M	355.64M	402.56M	369.18M	128.03M
Total Debt	626.99M	629.52M	635.37M	641.86M	654.59M	836.98M
Total Liabilities	1.16B	1.18B	1.29B	1.24B	1.31B	1.55B
Stockholders Equity	577.61M	824.53M	1.64B	1.63B	1.61B	2.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	191.87M	96.69M	167.15M	116.61M	91.18M	2.40B
Operating Cash Flow	202.58M	123.44M	182.09M	132.94M	104.84M	2.41B
Investing Cash Flow	-28.14M	-26.75M	-24.75M	-86.05M	-12.48M	-2.85B
Financing Cash Flow	-201.23M	-250.83M	-198.89M	-14.95M	151.49M	505.82M

Bumble Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price7.05

Price Trends

50DMA

6.91

Positive

100DMA

6.25

Positive

200DMA

6.34

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.10

Negative

RSI

57.81

Neutral

STOCH

75.58

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BMBL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.61, above the 50-day MA of 6.91, and above the 200-day MA of 6.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BMBL.

Bumble Risk Analysis

Bumble disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Bumble reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Bumble Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GTM	73 Outperform	3.77B	45.20	5.75%	―	-0.54%	626.94%
VMEO	72 Outperform	1.28B	101.84	0.00%	―	-1.35%	-59.67%
CXM	70 Neutral	1.90B	17.26	22.11%	―	6.08%	153.79%
SPT	62 Neutral	838.10M	-15.01	-37.20%	―	14.79%	27.52%
BMBL	52 Neutral	$733.27M	―	-75.71%	―	-5.06%	-2318.18%
LAW	49 Neutral	394.53M	-6.82	-41.02%	―	4.05%	-100.64%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%

* Communication Services Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BMBL

Bumble

7.05

1.14

19.29%

SPT

Sprout Social

14.24

-14.59

-50.61%

GTM

ZoomInfo Technologies

11.83

1.55

15.08%

VMEO

Vimeo

7.73

2.75

55.22%

CXM

Sprinklr

7.79

0.24

3.18%

LAW

CS Disco

6.39

0.70

12.30%

Bumble Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures

Bumble Appoints Kevin D. Cook as New CFO

Negative

Aug 6, 2025

Bumble Inc. announced the appointment of Kevin D. Cook as its new Chief Financial Officer, effective August 12, 2025, succeeding Ronald J. Fior. Cook brings over 30 years of financial management experience, having previously served as CFO at Cloudera, Inc. In its second quarter 2025 financial results, Bumble reported an 8% decrease in total revenue to $248 million, with a net loss of $367 million due to non-cash impairment charges. Despite the revenue decline, the company exceeded its adjusted EBITDA guidance and is focusing on improving operational efficiency and member quality.

Business Operations and Strategy

Bumble Announces Major Workforce Reduction for Realignment

Negative

Jun 25, 2025

On June 23, 2025, Bumble Inc. announced a significant reduction in its global workforce by approximately 240 roles, about 30% of its employees, as part of a strategic realignment to optimize execution on its priorities. The company expects to incur $13 million to $18 million in non-recurring charges due to this restructuring, with anticipated annual cost savings of up to $40 million, which will be reinvested in product and technology development. This move aims to enhance Bumble’s agility and focus on core product innovation, member health, and adapting to industry changes.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 05, 2025