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Bumble
(NASDAQ:BMBL)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(45.45% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/14/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed fundamentals—strong cash generation and gross margins but declining revenue and large GAAP losses. Technicals are supportive with the stock above major moving averages, though elevated RSI suggests near-term overheating risk. The earnings call reinforced near-term revenue headwinds and delayed platform-driven upside into 2027, partially offset by strong non-GAAP profitability and cash flow. The go-private deal is a significant positive catalyst that lifts the overall score despite ongoing operating challenges.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Bumble is converting its revenue base into substantial operating and free cash flow despite reported accounting losses. This internally generated liquidity can support product investment, marketing, and platform modernization while reducing reliance on external financing over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Sustained revenue decline
A nearly 15% year-over-year revenue decline shows that Bumble is still facing a meaningful transition in its member base and monetization performance. Continued top-line contraction can weaken operating leverage, constrain reinvestment capacity, and delay recovery in earnings power.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Bumble is converting its revenue base into substantial operating and free cash flow despite reported accounting losses. This internally generated liquidity can support product investment, marketing, and platform modernization while reducing reliance on external financing over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Bumble Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Paying Users
Counts the number of users who have subscribed or made purchases, indicating the company's success in converting free users to paying customers and driving revenue.
Counts the number of users who have subscribed or made purchases, indicating the company's success in converting free users to paying customers and driving revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBumble (BMBL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$785.21M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)9.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth-13.33%
EPS Growth45.52%
CountryUS
Employees580
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.86
Shares Outstanding131,968,300
10 Day Avg. Volume23,441,063
30 Day Avg. Volume9,236,120
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.70
Price to Sales (P/S)0.41
P/FCF Ratio1.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.92
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.30
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.96Price Target Upside43.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$833.89M
Bumble Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Specializing in online dating and social networking, Bumble Inc. delivers its platforms to users across North America, Europe, and various other global markets. The firm generates revenue by offering dating products through both subscription model...
How the Company Makes Money
Bumble makes money primarily through paid user features on its apps, delivered via subscriptions and à la carte in-app purchases.
1) Subscription revenue (core stream)
- Bumble and Badoo offer premium tiers (e.g., Bumble Premium/Boost and Badoo p...
Bumble Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced picture: the company is executing a deliberate transformation with visible early wins in product testing, AI, gross margin expansion, and strong cash generation, and it outperformed guidance on adjusted EBITDA. However, material near-term headwinds persist, including a meaningful year-over-year revenue decline (~15%), a GAAP impairment charge, and a delayed full rollout of the new platform (now pushed into early 2027) that postpones larger-scale product-driven revenue upside. Management plans to accelerate marketing and product spend in H2 to drive future growth, which will weigh on near-term margins but is presented as purposeful reinvestment to capture long-term durable engagement and monetization.Positive Updates
Revenue in Line / Above Guidance
Total revenue of $211.0M finished in the upper half of guidance for the quarter, with management noting the company came in where expected despite year-over-year pressures.
Negative Updates
Year-Over-Year Revenue Decline
Total revenue of $211M compared with $248M a year ago, a decline of approximately 14.9% year-over-year, reflecting the impact of the prior quality reset and a transitioning member base.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue in Line / Above Guidance
Total revenue of $211.0M finished in the upper half of guidance for the quarter, with management noting the company came in where expected despite year-over-year pressures.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Bumble guided Q3 total revenue of $205M–$213M (Bumble app revenue $167M–$173M) and adjusted EBITDA of $56M–$60M (≈28% margin at the midpoint), noting Q2 finished with $211M revenue and $73M adjusted EBITDA (35% margin) and that Q2 results were in the upper half of guidance with adjusted EBITDA above the high end. Management said adjusted EBITDA margins will "normalize" over the rest of 2026 as they accelerate investment in product, technology and brand (marketing to ramp in Q3/Q4), while gross margin should continue to benefit from alternative billing (Q2 gross margin expanded ~380 bps with cost of revenue 26% vs 29% a year ago). They reiterated strong cash generation to fund this phase: Q2 operating cash flow $54M, free cash flow $51M, YTD OCF $131M and FCF $125M, and $154M of cash on the balance sheet.Bumble Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 893.24M | 965.66M | 1.07B | 1.05B | 903.50M | 760.91M |
| Gross Profit | 636.83M | 659.20M | 683.16M | 675.97M | 564.30M | 448.68M |
| EBITDA | 91.50M | 280.09M | 328.64M | 116.76M | 102.39M | 77.19M |
| Net Income | -526.92M | -693.14M | -557.01M | -4.21M | -79.75M | 309.81M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.22B | 1.41B | 2.52B | 3.63B | 3.69B | 3.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 153.96M | 175.76M | 204.32M | 355.64M | 402.56M | 369.18M |
| Total Debt | 459.82M | 599.41M | 629.52M | 635.37M | 641.86M | 654.59M |
| Total Liabilities | 603.61M | 743.97M | 1.18B | 1.29B | 1.24B | 1.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 516.06M | 560.21M | 824.53M | 1.64B | 1.63B | 1.61B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 255.04M | 238.68M | 96.69M | 167.15M | 116.61M | 91.18M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 266.73M | 250.36M | 123.44M | 182.09M | 132.94M | 104.84M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.70M | -11.68M | -26.75M | -24.75M | -86.05M | -12.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -363.25M | -268.12M | -250.83M | -198.89M | -14.95M | 151.49M |
Bumble Technical Analysis
Positive
2.75
Price Trends
3.28
Positive
3.11
Positive
3.29
Positive
Market Momentum
0.89
Negative
89.25
Negative
99.04
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BMBL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.98, below the 50-day MA of 3.28, and below the 200-day MA of 3.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 89.25 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 99.04 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BMBL.
Bumble Risk Analysis
Bumble disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Bumble reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Bumble Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $4.14B | 19.78 | 3.35% | 6.39% | 7.52% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $10.63B | 15.54 | -303.57% | 1.71% | 1.70% | 40.52% | |
66 Neutral | $1.57B | 4.79 | 8.15% | 9.64% | 1.59% | -14.96% | |
64 Neutral | $650.67M | 4.36 | 10.19% | 4.75% | -0.36% | 45.28% | |
61 Neutral | $785.21M | -1.54 | -88.98% | ― | -13.33% | 45.52% | |
61 Neutral | $10.79B | -34.40 | -14.61% | ― | 12.65% | 42.94% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
BMBL
Bumble
5.94
0.18
3.13%
JOYY
JOYY
83.42
28.49
51.85%
WB
Weibo
6.32
-4.33
-40.69%
MOMO
Hello Group
4.54
-2.06
-31.20%
SNAP
Snap
6.35
-1.52
-19.31%
MTCH
Match Group
45.92
13.90
43.39%
Bumble Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDelistings and Listing ChangesFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Bumble to Go Private in Ithaca Holdings Acquisition
Positive
Oct 13, 2026
On October 12, 2026, Bumble Inc. agreed to be acquired by Ithaca Holdings in an all-cash deal that will take the dating-app operator private and value the company at about $1.3 billion. Common shareholders of Class A stock are set to receive $6.05...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.