Match Group, Inc. (MTCH)
NASDAQ:MTCH
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Match Group
(NASDAQ:MTCH)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$41.00
▲(15.46% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
MTCH scores well on valuation and technical trend strength, supported by strong profitability and cash generation. The score is held back by balance-sheet risk (negative equity and sizable debt) and a cautious near-term revenue outlook from guidance, including payer pressure and Azar/Tinder test-related headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent OCF and robust FCF demonstrate durable cash conversion and internal funding capacity. That cash supports dividends, buybacks and product investments while enabling debt servicing and strategic optionality, reducing reliance on external financing through multiple quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak balance sheet / negative equity
Persistent negative equity and sizable fixed‑rate debt create structural leverage risk and reduce financial flexibility. This heightens vulnerability to prolonged revenue weakness, limits capital allocation choices, and raises refinancing or covenant sensitivity over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent OCF and robust FCF demonstrate durable cash conversion and internal funding capacity. That cash supports dividends, buybacks and product investments while enabling debt servicing and strategic optionality, reducing reliance on external financing through multiple quarters.
Read all positive factors
Match Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Shows where Match Group earns its revenue globally, highlighting regions with strong performance and potential areas for expansion or risk.
Shows where Match Group earns its revenue globally, highlighting regions with strong performance and potential areas for expansion or risk.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMatch Group (MTCH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.24B
Dividend Yield2.32%
Average Volume (3M)3.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.9
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth2.00%
EPS Growth30.81%
CountryUS
Employees2,500
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.76
Shares Outstanding233,266,530
10 Day Avg. Volume2,924,471
30 Day Avg. Volume3,528,370
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.66
Price to Book (P/B)-30.91
Price to Sales (P/S)2.25
P/FCF Ratio7.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.38
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.38
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.07
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.33Price Target Upside13.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)2.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.48B
Match Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Match Group, Inc. provides dating products worldwide. The company's portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Hinge, Pairs, PlentyOfFish, and OurTime, as well as a various other brands. The company was incorporated in 1986 and i...
How the Company Makes Money
Match Group generates the majority of its revenue from paid user features across its dating apps. The core revenue stream is direct-to-consumer subscriptions (often sold as weekly, monthly, or multi-month plans) that unlock premium functionality s...
Match Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call tilted positive: the company beat Q1 revenue and adjusted EBITDA expectations, demonstrated clear product-led momentum at Tinder with improving engagement metrics (Sparks, retention, registrations) and delivered strong growth and margins at Hinge. These operational gains, along with cost actions, cash generation, and strategic investments (Sniffies), outweigh near-term headwinds from Azar’s App Store disruption, payer declines, and short-term revenue impacts from UX tests and safety rollouts. Management reiterated a path to restore Tinder MAU and full-year targets while maintaining disciplined capital allocation.Positive Updates
Beat Revenue and EBITDA Expectations
Q1 total revenue of $864M, up 4% (flat FXN); adjusted EBITDA $343M, up 25% with a 40% margin. Outperformance driven by Tinder strength and a one-time benefit from Canada’s rescission of its digital services tax (~$11M).
Negative Updates
Azar App Store Removal and Continued Revenue Pressure
Azar was temporarily removed from the App Store (02/22/2026) and reinstated on 04/06/2026; registrations and MAU beginning to recover but monetization is lower. Azar incurred an estimated ~$3M direct revenue hit in Q1 and guidance assumes a $20M negative impact for Q2; continued pressure expected over multiple quarters.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Beat Revenue and EBITDA Expectations
Q1 total revenue of $864M, up 4% (flat FXN); adjusted EBITDA $343M, up 25% with a 40% margin. Outperformance driven by Tinder strength and a one-time benefit from Canada’s rescission of its digital services tax (~$11M).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Match Group guided Q2 2026 total revenue of $850–860 million (down 2% to flat year‑over‑year), assuming a one‑point FX tailwind (FX‑neutral down 1%–3% YoY) and explicitly modeling ~$10 million of downside from Tinder user‑experience tests and ~$20 million of downside from reduced Azar direct revenue; adjusted EBITDA is guided to $325–330 million (about a 13% YoY increase) implying roughly a 38% adjusted EBITDA margin at the midpoint. Management said the full‑year guide is unchanged, noted a $45 million user‑investment budget penciled into H2 (split between Q3/Q4), cautioned Azar pressure may persist for several quarters, and pointed to margin optionality from cost actions (≈$15 million annualized savings from MG Asia consolidation, ≈$10 million from winding down Archer) alongside Q1 liquidity/leverage metrics (≈$1.0 billion cash, TTM gross leverage 3.1x, net leverage 2.3x).Match Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.52B | 3.49B | 3.48B | 3.36B | 3.19B | 2.98B |
| Gross Profit | 2.60B | 2.54B | 2.49B | 2.41B | 2.23B | 2.14B |
| EBITDA | 1.03B | 999.21M | 951.63M | 1.05B | 566.63M | 428.04M |
| Net Income | 662.71M | 613.45M | 551.28M | 651.54M | 361.95M | 277.72M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.41B | 4.46B | 4.47B | 4.51B | 4.18B | 5.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.02B | 1.03B | 970.73M | 868.64M | 581.12M | 827.20M |
| Total Debt | 3.97B | 3.97B | 3.85B | 3.84B | 3.84B | 3.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.63B | 4.71B | 4.53B | 4.53B | 4.54B | 5.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | -218.12M | -253.50M | -63.66M | -19.55M | -359.88M | -203.77M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.02B | 1.02B | 882.14M | 829.38M | 476.56M | 832.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.08B | 1.08B | 932.72M | 896.79M | 525.69M | 912.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -50.72M | -46.83M | -58.54M | -76.58M | -71.70M | -939.83M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -423.97M | -984.89M | -758.30M | -534.07M | -689.17M | 111.11M |
Match Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
35.51
Price Trends
34.69
Positive
32.84
Positive
33.32
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Positive
46.90
Neutral
60.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTCH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 35.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.10, above the 50-day MA of 34.69, and above the 200-day MA of 33.32, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MTCH.
Match Group Risk Analysis
Match Group disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Match Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Match Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $3.46B | 15.01 | 3.47% | 4.25% | 1.02% | ― | |
76 Outperform | $1.52T | 21.45 | 33.22% | 0.32% | 26.18% | 6.07% | |
71 Outperform | $8.24B | 12.93 | -286.13% | 2.32% | 2.00% | 30.81% | |
70 Outperform | $1.99B | 5.15 | 9.89% | 8.13% | 1.64% | 4.56% | |
65 Neutral | $874.27M | 7.86 | 7.25% | ― | -1.21% | -41.09% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
56 Neutral | $396.51M | -0.48 | -108.85% | ― | -11.42% | -20.07% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
MTCH
Match Group
34.32
4.00
13.19%
META
Meta Platforms
622.98
-62.83
-9.16%
JOYY
JOYY
66.96
23.02
52.41%
WB
Weibo
7.91
-0.96
-10.79%
MOMO
Hello Group
5.76
-0.23
-3.78%
BMBL
Bumble
2.85
-2.44
-46.12%
Match Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Match Group Posts Strong Q1 Results, Declares Dividend
Positive
May 5, 2026
Match Group reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 5, 2026, showing total revenue up 4% year over year to $864 million and net income up 42% to $167 million, with adjusted EBITDA rising 25% and margins improving. The board also declared a quar...
Executive/Board Changes
Match Group Appoints Raina Moskowitz to Board
Neutral
Apr 30, 2026
On April 29, 2026, Match Group, Inc.’s board appointed Raina Moskowitz as a director, effective at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, to fill the vacancy created by the previously announced resignation of director Pamela S. Seymon, wit...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Match Group Eliminates COO Role, Hosseini to Depart
Negative
Mar 5, 2026
Match Group, Inc. announced that it informed Hesam Hosseini on March 4, 2026, that the company will eliminate the Chief Operating Officer role, effective June 2, 2026. Following this decision and after more than 15 years with the company, Hosseini...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Match Group Adds Tech Leaders to Refresh Board Governance
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 13, 2026, Match Group announced that directors Pamela S. Seymon and Sharmistha Dubey would leave its board at the 2026 annual meeting, with both departures stated as unrelated to any disagreements over company operations, policies or p...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.