Mattel (MAT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.13B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.24M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.87
• Revenue Growth: -2.36%
• EPS Growth: -16.05%
• Country: US
• Employees: 34,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 0.89
• Shares Outstanding: 322,200,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,023,257
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,242,236
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.12
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.44
• 1Y Price Target: $24.13
• Price Target Upside: 26.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $20.50 ▲(7.72% Upside)

Mattel's overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with strong cash flow and improved leverage. Positive technical indicators suggest potential for upward momentum, while valuation remains reasonable. Challenges in revenue growth and profitability margins, along with shifts in U.S. retailer ordering patterns, are key risks. Optimism for a strong holiday season and international growth provide a positive outlook.

Positive Factors

Strong Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow generation enhances Mattel's ability to invest in growth opportunities, manage debt, and return capital to shareholders, supporting long-term financial health.

International Market Growth

Growth in international markets indicates successful global expansion strategies, diversifying revenue sources and reducing reliance on the U.S. market.

Digital and Licensing Expansion

Expanding digital and licensing initiatives positions Mattel to capitalize on new revenue streams and adapt to changing consumer preferences, enhancing long-term competitiveness.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A decline in revenue growth highlights challenges in maintaining sales momentum, potentially impacting profitability and market share if not addressed.

Gross Margin Pressure

Decreasing gross margins due to cost pressures can erode profitability, necessitating cost control measures to sustain long-term financial performance.

Inventory Management Challenges

Rising inventory levels may indicate inefficiencies in supply chain management, leading to potential write-downs and impacting cash flow if not managed effectively.

Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mattel, Inc. is a global leader in the design, manufacture, and marketing of toys and family products, known for iconic brands such as Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and American Girl. Founded in 1945, the company operates in the toy industry, creating engaging products that inspire creativity and play among children. Mattel also leverages its brands through licensing agreements in various sectors, including entertainment, fashion, and digital media, expanding its reach and influence in the marketplace.

How the Company Makes Money

Mattel generates revenue primarily through the sale of toys, games, and related products, with a significant portion of its earnings coming from its well-known brands. The company employs a multi-faceted revenue model that includes direct sales to retailers, e-commerce platforms, and licensing agreements. Key revenue streams include the sale of Barbie dolls, Hot Wheels cars, and Fisher-Price toys, as well as royalties from licensed merchandise and collaborations with entertainment franchises. Additionally, Mattel invests in digital gaming and content creation to diversify its offerings and tap into new markets. Strategic partnerships with film studios and entertainment companies further enhance its revenue potential by creating synergies with media properties and character-based products.

Mattel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mattel's financial performance is stable with strong cash flow generation and improved leverage. However, challenges in revenue growth and profitability margins persist, requiring focus on operational efficiency and cost control.

Income Statement

Mattel's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is strong at 50.32%, indicating efficient production and sales processes. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 8.27% from 10.07% in the previous year, reflecting challenges in controlling costs or pricing strategies. Revenue growth is negative at -2.02% TTM, suggesting a decline in sales compared to the previous period. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, indicating reduced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.76 TTM from 1.19 the previous year, showing reduced leverage and a more balanced capital structure. Return on equity is solid at 18.81% TTM, although it has decreased from 23.93% the previous year, indicating a slight decline in profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a consistent asset base.

Cash Flow

Mattel's cash flow statement is robust, with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 126.1% TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.33, although it has decreased from 0.61 the previous year, suggesting a need for improved cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 93.07%, reflecting efficient cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.23B	5.38B	5.44B	5.43B	5.46B	4.59B
Gross Profit	2.63B	2.73B	2.58B	2.48B	2.63B	2.24B
EBITDA	768.67M	987.23M	818.37M	875.37M	956.38M	569.44M
Net Income	432.26M	541.82M	214.35M	393.91M	902.99M	123.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.59B	6.54B	6.44B	6.18B	6.39B	5.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	691.90M	1.39B	1.26B	761.24M	731.36M	762.18M
Total Debt	1.99B	2.69B	2.67B	2.67B	2.93B	3.18B
Total Liabilities	3.97B	4.28B	4.29B	4.12B	4.83B	4.92B
Stockholders Equity	2.63B	2.26B	2.15B	2.06B	1.57B	610.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	613.13M	597.95M	709.49M	256.34M	334.11M	166.90M
Operating Cash Flow	658.80M	800.57M	869.79M	442.84M	485.46M	285.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-134.80M	-189.04M	-142.42M	-144.22M	-105.10M	-132.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-135.12M	-449.35M	-226.57M	-260.64M	-402.07M	-5.84M

Mattel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.03
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.24, above the 50-day MA of 17.95, and above the 200-day MA of 18.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.26 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MAT.

Mattel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GOLF	―	$4.63B	21.65	27.51%	1.14%	3.83%	28.57%
MAT	―	$6.13B	14.21	18.89%	―	-2.36%	-16.05%
JAKK	―	$198.86M	5.52	17.82%	4.20%	1.31%	23.14%
YETI	―	$2.81B	16.50	23.49%	―	3.63%	-2.60%
Sector *	―	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
HAS	―	$10.93B	―	-64.88%	3.59%	0.88%	14.02%
FNKO	―	$171.08M	-2.56	-32.24%	―	-9.07%	-38.09%

Mattel Corporate Events

Mattel Inc. Navigates Challenges with Optimism in Earnings Call

Mattel Inc.’s recent earnings call painted a picture of mixed sentiment, highlighting strong consumer demand and successful product launches. The company is making strategic expansions in digital gaming and global licensing. However, challenges persist due to shifts in U.S. retailer ordering patterns, which have led to declines in key financial metrics. Despite these hurdles, Mattel remains optimistic about a strong fourth quarter and holiday season.

Mattel Reports Decline in Q3 2025 Sales

Mattel Inc., a prominent player in the global toy and family entertainment industry, is known for its iconic brand portfolio, including Barbie, Hot Wheels, and Fisher-Price. The company engages consumers through toys, content, and digital experiences, collaborating with leading retail and e-commerce companies worldwide.