Mattel AI Stock Analysis
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Mattel (MAT) AI Stock Analysis
Mattel
(NASDAQ:MAT)
The score is driven primarily by a stable-to-improving financial profile (strong cash generation and improved net profitability) but capped by weaker operating-margin consistency and meaningful leverage. Technicals are a clear headwind with weak momentum signals, while valuation is a positive offset due to a low P/E. The latest earnings call adds caution after lowered guidance tied to broad POS deceleration and tariff-refund-aided margins.
Mattel Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Gross Billings by CategoryReveals the sales performance across different product categories, highlighting which segments are driving revenue and where the company might focus its growth strategies.
Vehicles and challenger categories (action figures/building sets/games) are the clear growth engines, delivering consistent expansion and outsized holiday spikes, while Dolls are uneven and Infant/Toddler & Preschool show structural decline from strategic exits. Management’s Mattel 163 acquisition and heavier digital/marketing investments will push more mix into games (supporting future billings) but will depress 2026 margins and contribute to a soft Q1; if vehicle/games momentum holds, investors should expect faster revenue and operating‑income leverage in 2027.
The FlyMattel (MAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $4.32B
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 6.04M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 8.7
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.02
- Revenue Growth
- 6.37%
- EPS Growth
- 28.22%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 31,000
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Leisure
Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mattel, Inc. functions as a worldwide children's entertainment corporation, primarily engaged in the design and production of a diverse range of toys and consumer goods. The company's operations are segmented into North America, International, and th...
How the Company Makes Money
Mattel primarily makes money by selling toys and related consumer products to retail and e-commerce customers around the world. Revenue is generated from wholesale shipments of products under Mattel-owned brands (e.g., Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Pric...
Mattel Earnings Call Summary
The call presented strong third-quarter results, led by higher sales, profitability, vehicles, Hot Wheels, partner brands, and regional growth. However, the tone was cautious because point-of-sale trends decelerated broadly, full-year guidance was revised to lower sales and profitability ranges, Barbie and several categories remained under pressure, and underlying gross-margin performance was affected by inflation and higher royalties when excluding tariff refunds.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For the remainder of 2026, Mattel revised full-year guidance to net sales growth in the range of 1%-4% in constant currency, adjusted gross margin of roughly 48%, adjusted operating income in the range of $500 million-$570 million, and adjusted earnings per share in the range of $1.05-$1.20; foreign exchange is expected to have roughly a 1% benefit on full-year net sales based on current spot rates, and the adjusted effective tax rate is expected to be roughly 23% for the full year. The revised outlook reflects softer-than-expected point of sales, POS, including a deceleration in trends during the latter part of the third quarter that has continued into the fourth quarter with similar trends across major markets, excludes the benefits of tariff refunds recognized year to date and any additional tariff refunds that may be recognized during the remainder of the year, and the company expects to provide 2027 guidance in February 2027.
Mattel Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are stable-to-improving: strong TTM revenue growth and improved net margin, plus solid operating cash flow and strong free-cash-flow conversion. Offsetting this, operating margin is well below prior years and earnings/cash flow have been volatile, while leverage remains meaningful (debt-to-equity ~1.0).
Income Statement
63PositiveBalance Sheet
58NeutralCash Flow
66Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.56B | 5.35B | 5.38B | 5.44B | 5.43B | 5.46B |
| Gross Profit | 2.72B | 2.61B | 2.73B | 2.58B | 2.48B | 2.63B |
| EBITDA | 899.29M | 774.09M | 987.23M | 766.53M | 875.37M | 956.38M |
| Net Income | 502.60M | 397.60M | 541.82M | 214.35M | 393.91M | 902.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.90B | 6.64B | 6.54B | 6.44B | 6.18B | 6.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 541.41M | 1.24B | 1.39B | 1.26B | 761.24M | 731.36M |
| Total Debt | 2.73B | 2.68B | 2.69B | 2.67B | 2.67B | 2.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.56B | 4.41B | 4.28B | 4.29B | 4.12B | 4.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.34B | 2.23B | 2.26B | 2.15B | 2.06B | 1.57B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 631.53M | 411.26M | 597.95M | 709.49M | 256.34M | 334.11M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 749.14M | 593.30M | 800.57M | 869.79M | 442.84M | 485.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -307.33M | -154.90M | -189.04M | -142.42M | -144.22M | -105.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 28.84M | -620.57M | -449.35M | -226.57M | -260.64M | -402.07M |
Mattel Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.83, above the 50-day MA of 15.11, and below the 200-day MA of 15.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAT.
Mattel Risk Analysis
Mattel disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mattel reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
3 New RisksMattel Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
JAKK79Outperform
ESCA73Outperform
HAS71Outperform
FNKO61.3Neutral- MAT58Neutral
PLAY38Underperform
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAKK | 79Outperform | $416.07M | 15.83 | 10.30% | 2.78% | 9.22% | 330.79% |
| ESCA | 73Outperform | $288.76M | 11.95 | 13.48% | 2.89% | 0.05% | 90.86% |
| HAS | 71Outperform | $16.99B | 17.81 | 136.37% | 2.32% | 18.79% | ― |
| FNKO | 61Neutral | $389.45M | 90.21 | 1.96% | ― | 1.21% | ― |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
| MAT | 58Neutral | $4.43B | 8.69 | 23.17% | ― | 6.37% | 28.22% |
| PLAY | 38Underperform | $273.42M | -3.13 | -86.54% | ― | -1.49% | -795.27% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAT | Mattel Inc | 15.12 | -3.60 | -19.23% | |
| ESCA | Escalade | 21.03 | 8.47 | 67.49% | |
| HAS | Hasbro | 120.55 | 45.92 | 61.53% | |
| JAKK | Jakks Pacific | 35.93 | 20.86 | 138.37% | |
| PLAY | Dave & Busters Entertainment Inc | 8.02 | -6.72 | -45.59% | |
| FNKO | Funko Inc | 6.91 | 3.85 | 125.82% |
Mattel Corporate Events
Mattel Appoints Steve Totzke President and Chief Operating Officer
PositiveOn November 5, 2026, Mattel announced that Steve Totzke had been appointed president and chief operating officer, effective November 11. The announcement followed Roberto Stanichi’s resignation as president, chief marketing and brand officer, effecti...
Mattel Aligns Governance with EdgePoint Through Board Appointment
PositiveOn October 21, 2026, Mattel entered into a cooperation agreement with EdgePoint Investment Group, which holds about 18% of Mattel’s stock, and appointed EdgePoint partner Lee Matheson to its Board of Directors, expanding the board from nine to ten me...
Mattel Appoints Peter Griffith as New Chief Financial Officer
PositiveOn October 19, 2026, Mattel announced that Peter Griffith has been appointed Chief Financial Officer and non-independent board director, effective October 20, 2026, succeeding outgoing CFO Paul Ruh, who will remain as an executive advisor through yea...
Mattel Finalizes CEO Roger Lynch Compensation Agreement
PositiveOn October 12, 2026, Mattel amended the previously disclosed offer letter for incoming Chief Executive Officer Roger Lynch, formalizing October 12, 2026 as his start date and aligning the grant date for his equity awards with that date. The package i...
Mattel Announces CEO Transition to Roger Lynch Leadership
PositiveDuring late September 2026, Mattel’s board approved a leadership transition that will see director Roger Lynch become chairman on October 2, 2026 and chief executive officer no later than November 2, 2026, succeeding Ynon Kreiz, who is leaving to tak...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 06, 2026