Mattel (MAT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.07B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.73M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: -0.73%
• EPS Growth: 88.76%
• Country: US
• Employees: 34,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 322,900,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,214,916
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,726,919
• PEG Ratio: -0.28
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 24.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.38
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.99
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.30
• 1Y Price Target: $23.50
• Price Target Upside: 25.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $21.00 ▲(11.70%Upside)

Mattel's strong financial performance and strategic initiatives, coupled with a well-managed supply chain, provide a solid foundation for growth. While technical indicators and valuation suggest neutrality, the new CFO appointment adds a positive outlook. However, global trade uncertainties and high debt levels pose risks.

Positive Factors

Content and Licensing

Optimism for 2026 is supported by new movies, a solid Marvel slate, the DC comic license, and the launch of self-published video games.

Industry Growth

Management remains optimistic that the industry has returned to growth with the consumer consistent, while tariffs remain manageable.

Negative Factors

Brand Health

Concerns exist about the company's ability to realize incremental pricing without significant elasticity impacts.

Retailer Dynamics

Near term, MAT continues to expect sales to shift as retailers push the risk back to vendors on seasonal merchandise.

Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading global toy company that specializes in the design, manufacture, and marketing of a wide range of toy products. Founded in 1945 and headquartered in El Segundo, California, Mattel operates in the consumer goods sector, focusing on developing innovative toys and games. Its portfolio includes iconic brands such as Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and American Girl, which are sold in over 150 countries worldwide. The company aims to inspire wonder in children and families through its diverse range of products and experiences.

How the Company Makes Money

Mattel generates revenue primarily through the sale of toys and games, which are distributed through various channels, including mass retailers, specialty retailers, e-commerce platforms, and direct-to-consumer sales. Key revenue streams include its core product lines such as Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and American Girl, each contributing significantly to its overall earnings. The company also benefits from licensing agreements and collaborations with entertainment giants like Disney and Warner Bros., allowing it to produce toys based on popular TV shows and movies, thus broadening its market appeal. Additionally, Mattel leverages its intellectual property by extending its brands into digital and media content, including TV shows, movies, and online games, which further enhances brand visibility and drives consumer engagement.

Mattel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mattel demonstrates a solid financial performance with consistent revenue and effective cost control, leading to healthy profit margins. The balance sheet shows a well-managed leverage strategy, although the debt level poses potential risks. The cash flow statement supports a positive outlook with strong cash generation, enabling strategic investments and operational stability.

Income Statement

Mattel's income statement reveals a stable revenue base with a slight positive growth trajectory. The Gross Profit Margin stands at 51.0% for TTM, indicative of strong cost management, while the Net Profit Margin is at 9.8%, showing a modest profitability level. Although there was a decrease in Net Income from the previous year, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 14.5% and 16.7%, respectively, demonstrating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 1.26, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. The Return on Equity (ROE) is 24.9%, showcasing effective use of equity for generating profits. With an Equity Ratio of 34.3%, Mattel maintains a solid equity cushion, though the overall debt level remains relatively high, indicating potential risk in financial stability.

Cash Flow

Mattel's cash flow statement indicates strong cash generation capabilities. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.1, reflecting efficient cash conversion. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.5 highlights robust cash flow relative to accounting profits. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is slightly negative, but overall cash flow management remains strong, supporting ongoing operational investments.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
5.40B	5.38B	5.44B	5.43B	5.46B	4.59B
	Gross Profit
2.75B	2.73B	2.58B	2.48B	2.63B	2.25B
	EBIT
781.44M	694.28M	561.66M	675.51M	729.56M	374.74M
	EBITDA
901.07M	909.24M	766.53M	819.33M	956.38M	569.44M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
529.80M	541.82M	214.35M	393.91M	902.99M	123.58M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.24B	1.39B	1.26B	761.24M	731.36M	762.18M
	Total Assets
6.21B	6.54B	6.44B	6.18B	6.39B	5.53B
	Total Debt
2.68B	2.69B	2.67B	2.67B	2.93B	3.18B
	Net Debt
1.36B	1.30B	1.41B	1.91B	2.20B	2.42B
	Total Liabilities
4.08B	4.28B	4.29B	4.12B	4.83B	4.92B
	Stockholders Equity
2.13B	2.26B	2.15B	2.06B	1.57B	610.14M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
581.54M	597.95M	709.49M	256.34M	334.11M	166.90M
	Operating Cash Flow
789.87M	800.57M	869.79M	442.84M	485.46M	285.70M
	Investing Cash Flow
-191.91M	-189.04M	-142.42M	-144.22M	-105.10M	-132.10M
	Financing Cash Flow
-479.94M	-449.35M	-226.57M	-260.64M	-402.07M	-5.84M

Mattel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 18.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.18, above the 50-day MA of 17.42, and below the 200-day MA of 18.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAT.

Mattel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GOLF	81 Outperform	$4.11B	19.42	27.15%	1.34%	2.07%	24.87%
JAKK	75 Outperform	$230.62M	5.07	21.81%	4.83%	2.89%	41.09%
YETI	75 Outperform	$2.48B	14.47	25.01%	―	8.38%	3.69%
MAT	73 Outperform	$6.07B	12.11	25.50%	―	-0.73%	88.76%
HAS	72 Outperform	$9.50B	22.37	39.16%	4.13%	-10.31%	―
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.82B	11.05	2.80%	4.32%	2.67%	-24.92%
JOUT	61 Neutral	$302.42M	―	-9.70%	4.46%	-7.28%	-924.86%

Mattel Corporate Events

Mattel Stockholders Approve Key Amendments at Annual Meeting

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 28, 2025, Mattel‘s stockholders approved an amendment to the company’s Restated Certificate of Incorporation, extending exculpation from liability to certain officers as permitted by Delaware law. Additionally, all director nominees were elected, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and executive compensation was approved. However, a proposal to disclose a plan to reduce climate change contributions was not approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAT) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mattel stock, see the MAT Stock Forecast page.

Mattel Appoints Paul Ruh as New CFO

On May 2, 2025, Mattel announced the appointment of Paul Ruh as Chief Financial Officer, effective May 19, 2025. Ruh, who has extensive experience in financial leadership roles at Kenvue and Johnson & Johnson, will succeed Anthony DiSilvestro, who will remain as an advisor until August 15, 2025. Ruh’s appointment is seen as a strategic move to enhance Mattel’s financial operations and support its multi-year strategy to unlock the full value of its intellectual property. Ruh’s expertise in guiding consumer brands to operational excellence is expected to contribute significantly to Mattel’s growth and shareholder value.