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Louisiana-Pacific
(NYSE:LPX)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$86.00
▲(11.73% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/02/26
LPX scores mid-range primarily due to compressed profitability and weaker free cash flow despite a strong balance sheet. Technicals are mixed (short-term strength but still below longer-term averages), valuation is a notable negative given the high P/E, and the latest call reinforced Siding resilience but highlighted OSB-driven earnings and cash-flow pressure plus cautious outlook.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage and sizable equity provide durable financial flexibility through cycles, enabling LPX to fund strategic capex, maintain dividends, and absorb OSB-driven earnings swings. A conservative balance sheet reduces refinancing risk and supports disciplined capital allocation during multi-quarter downturns.
Negative Factors
OSB price volatility & losses
Significant OSB weakness is a structural vulnerability: commodity panel prices can remain depressed for extended periods, directly eroding consolidated margins and cash flow. Persistent low OSB realizations can overwhelm Siding gains and limit LPX's ability to generate consistent earnings through the cycle.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage and sizable equity provide durable financial flexibility through cycles, enabling LPX to fund strategic capex, maintain dividends, and absorb OSB-driven earnings swings. A conservative balance sheet reduces refinancing risk and supports disciplined capital allocation during multi-quarter downturns.
Read all positive factors
Louisiana-Pacific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Reports each segment’s core profitability after removing one-time items, highlighting which operations drive the company’s earnings and how margins respond to price and cost swings. Stable or growing adjusted EBITDA in key segments indicates pricing power and operational strength, while declines suggest margin pressure from raw-material, energy, or freight cost increases.
Reports each segment’s core profitability after removing one-time items, highlighting which operations drive the company’s earnings and how margins respond to price and cost swings. Stable or growing adjusted EBITDA in key segments indicates pricing power and operational strength, while declines suggest margin pressure from raw-material, energy, or freight cost increases.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLouisiana-Pacific (LPX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.76B
Dividend Yield1.37%
Average Volume (3M)1.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)68.3
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth-12.99%
EPS Growth-79.48%
CountryUS
Employees4,300
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.18
Shares Outstanding69,864,880
10 Day Avg. Volume1,127,052
30 Day Avg. Volume1,113,846
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.60
Price to Book (P/B)3.27
Price to Sales (P/S)2.09
P/FCF Ratio62.12
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$89.29Price Target Upside16.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.56B
Louisiana-Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX), through its various subsidiaries, is a key manufacturer and distributor of building materials. These products primarily serve the needs of new residential construction, renovation and remodeling projects, and t...
How the Company Makes Money
LPX makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling building products, with revenue largely driven by shipment volumes and selling prices (which can be cyclical and influenced by housing activity and commodity input costs). Its key revenue stre...
Louisiana-Pacific Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of positive operating and strategic developments (safety excellence, pricing power and margin resilience in Siding, ExpertFinish capacity expansion, new builder partnerships, maintained liquidity and dividend returns) alongside significant near-term headwinds driven by OSB price declines, volume destocking (notably in sheds), reduced EBITDA and cash flow, and macro uncertainty that prompted downward guidance adjustments. Management emphasized long-term confidence in SmartSide and capacity investments while being appropriately cautious on near-term demand and commodity volatility.Positive Updates
Q1 EBITDA and EPS Delivery
Reported adjusted EBITDA of $82 million for Q1 2026 and adjusted EPS of $0.38; performance exceeded the high end of prior guidance for the quarter.
Negative Updates
OSB Price Decline and Profitability Pressure
OSB prices were ~28% lower year over year, which management attributed to a $66 million reduction in net sales and EBITDA; OSB pricing has been at or below EBITDA breakeven in recent months.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q1 EBITDA and EPS Delivery
Reported adjusted EBITDA of $82 million for Q1 2026 and adjusted EPS of $0.38; performance exceeded the high end of prior guidance for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company updated Q2 and full‑year outlook with Siding revenue now expected at $435–$445M and EBITDA $115–$120M for Q2, and full‑year Siding revenue of $1.40–$1.66B with EBITDA of $410–$425M; Q2 Siding volumes are expected to be down roughly 10% YoY with sequential improvement into year‑end, while ExpertFinish is forecast to grow mid‑single‑digits for the full year (ExpertFinish was 12% of Siding volume and 18% of Siding revenue in Q1), list prices should remain steady, and Q1 Siding unit volumes were down 18% YoY with a 28% Siding margin. For OSB the company is modeling prices flat from last Friday’s prints and expects Q2 OSB EBITDA to be a loss of about $10M (Q1 OSB prices were ~28% lower YoY, reducing revenue/EBITDA by about $66M and producing a roughly $12M OSB EBITDA loss in Q1). Q1 consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $82M, adjusted EPS $0.38, cash was $164M with $900M total liquidity, Q1 net operating cash outflow was $38M (vs. $64M inflow LY), strategic growth capex is ~$200M (≈$100M ExpertFinish, $20–30M next Siding mill), and sensitivity metrics include ~+$0.03/mile variable freight (≈$1M annual freight impact per $10/barrel crude given ~30M miles) and ~$1.5–$2.0M per quarter (~$6–$8M/yr) in raw‑material cost per $10/barrel crude (split ~75/25 Siding/OSB).Louisiana-Pacific Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.56B | 2.71B | 2.94B | 2.58B | 3.85B | 3.92B |
| Gross Profit | 507.00M | 589.00M | 831.00M | 593.00M | 1.50B | 1.96B |
| EBITDA | 270.00M | 354.00M | 659.00M | 381.00M | 1.36B | 1.86B |
| Net Income | 82.00M | 146.00M | 420.00M | 178.00M | 1.09B | 1.38B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.58B | 2.63B | 2.57B | 2.44B | 2.35B | 2.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 164.00M | 292.00M | 340.00M | 222.00M | 369.00M | 358.00M |
| Total Debt | 378.00M | 401.00M | 380.00M | 378.00M | 395.00M | 397.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 850.00M | 895.00M | 898.00M | 880.00M | 916.00M | 955.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.73B | 1.73B | 1.67B | 1.56B | 1.43B | 1.24B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -6.00M | 91.00M | 422.00M | 16.00M | 730.00M | 1.23B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 282.00M | 382.00M | 605.00M | 316.00M | 1.14B | 1.48B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -287.00M | -291.00M | -183.00M | -376.00M | -146.00M | -247.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -84.00M | -141.00M | -292.00M | -77.00M | -982.00M | -1.39B |
Louisiana-Pacific Technical Analysis
Positive
76.97
Price Trends
73.56
Positive
76.71
Positive
81.00
Positive
Market Momentum
1.91
Negative
65.06
Neutral
84.75
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LPX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 76.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.28, above the 50-day MA of 73.56, and below the 200-day MA of 81.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.91 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.75 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LPX.
Louisiana-Pacific Risk Analysis
Louisiana-Pacific disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Louisiana-Pacific reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Louisiana-Pacific Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $5.21B | 20.00 | 8.44% | 1.53% | -6.40% | -24.83% | |
64 Neutral | $9.68B | 4.31 | 25.27% | 1.96% | 3.06% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | $5.76B | 68.25 | 4.72% | 1.37% | -12.99% | -79.48% | |
52 Neutral | $1.56B | 14.63 | 10.51% | 3.51% | -10.95% | -63.39% | |
50 Neutral | $270.90M | -10.41 | -3.08% | ― | -11.89% | 79.35% | |
44 Neutral | $45.38M | -0.08 | -242.96% | 10.77% | -7.34% | -479.98% |
* Industrials Sector Average
LPX
Louisiana-Pacific
80.54
-4.22
-4.98%
CLW
Clearwater Paper
16.03
-11.21
-41.15%
MERC
Mercer International
0.65
-2.86
-81.57%
UFPI
UFP Industries
91.41
-6.45
-6.59%
SUZ
Suzano Papel e Celulose SA
7.67
-1.55
-16.79%
SLVM
Sylvamo Corp
37.52
-10.66
-22.12%
Louisiana-Pacific Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Louisiana-Pacific Announces CFO Succession and Leadership Transitions
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
On May 27, 2026, LP’s long-serving Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Alan J.M. Haughie informed the board he will retire from the CFO role effective Sept. 1, 2026, and then remain as an advisor through February 2027 to sup...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Louisiana-Pacific Shareholders Back Directors, Auditor and Pay Plan
Positive
May 5, 2026
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation held its annual meeting of stockholders on May 1, 2026, with 63,351,275 shares of common stock represented out of 69,848,440 shares outstanding and entitled to vote as of March 3, 2026. At the meeting, stockholders el...
Dividends
Louisiana-Pacific Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend for Shareholders
Positive
May 1, 2026
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation announced on May 1, 2026, that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share for common stockholders, payable on May 28, 2026, to shareholders of record as of May 14, 2026. The dividend declaration u...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.