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Louisiana-Pacific
(NYSE:LPX)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$70.00
▼(-3.21% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
LPX scores in the mid-range primarily due to mixed financial performance—compressed profitability and slightly negative TTM free cash flow are partly offset by a strong, low-leverage balance sheet. Technicals are a clear headwind with price below key moving averages and weak momentum. Valuation is the largest fundamental constraint given a very high P/E versus currently normalized earnings power. Earnings-call details support the core Siding outlook, but expected OSB losses and soft demand (reinforced by the Jasper curtailment) cap the overall score.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage and growing equity provide financial flexibility while earnings are under pressure. This supports continued investment in strategic capacity, helps absorb cyclical weakness, and reduces the risk that near-term operating volatility forces defensive capital decisions.
Negative Factors
OSB curtailment and demand weakness
The Jasper curtailment confirms that weak OSB demand is significant enough to require a lasting network adjustment, not merely a short-term production change. Lower utilization and one-time costs may weigh on results, while the reduced footprint highlights ongoing commodity exposure.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage and growing equity provide financial flexibility while earnings are under pressure. This supports continued investment in strategic capacity, helps absorb cyclical weakness, and reduces the risk that near-term operating volatility forces defensive capital decisions.
Read all positive factors
Louisiana-Pacific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Reports each segment’s core profitability after removing one-time items, highlighting which operations drive the company’s earnings and how margins respond to price and cost swings. Stable or growing adjusted EBITDA in key segments indicates pricing power and operational strength, while declines suggest margin pressure from raw-material, energy, or freight cost increases.
Reports each segment’s core profitability after removing one-time items, highlighting which operations drive the company’s earnings and how margins respond to price and cost swings. Stable or growing adjusted EBITDA in key segments indicates pricing power and operational strength, while declines suggest margin pressure from raw-material, energy, or freight cost increases.
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The Fly
The FlyLouisiana-Pacific (LPX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.57B
Dividend Yield1.79%
Average Volume (3M)1.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)83.3
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth-14.37%
EPS Growth-81.88%
CountryUS
Employees4,300
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.79
Shares Outstanding69,923,410
10 Day Avg. Volume954,653
30 Day Avg. Volume1,079,082
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.60
Price to Book (P/B)3.27
Price to Sales (P/S)2.09
P/FCF Ratio62.12
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$93.00Price Target Upside28.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.51B
Louisiana-Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX), through its various subsidiaries, is a key manufacturer and distributor of building materials. These products primarily serve the needs of new residential construction, renovation and remodeling projects, and t...
How the Company Makes Money
LPX makes money primarily by manufacturing building products and selling them to customers through a combination of direct sales and distribution channels. Its revenue is driven mainly by: (1) Structural Panel products—principally oriented strand ...
Louisiana-Pacific Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Mixed but cautious: the call highlighted clear and durable strength in the Siding business (price power, volume recovery trajectory in ExpertFinish, normalized channel inventories, capacity investments, strong cash/liquidity and affirmed Siding guidance), while commodity OSB showed significant, near-term worsening (lower prices, falling volumes and an expected negative full-year EBITDA), and the quarter was affected by unplanned outages, weather-related logistics disruptions and inflationary freight pressures. Management is taking disciplined capital allocation steps (CapEx reduction, focus on Siding growth) and preserving liquidity, which mitigates near-term OSB weakness but the OSB drag remains a material headwind.Positive Updates
Siding Revenue and Pricing Strength
Siding sales increased 4% year-over-year with average selling prices up 7%, contributing $27M to revenue and EBITDA; Siding delivered a 26% EBITDA margin and performed above the midpoint of guidance.
Negative Updates
Overall Revenue and EBITDA Decline
Net sales were $664M, down $90M year-over-year (≈-12%); consolidated EBITDA declined to $79M, down $63M YoY (≈-44%), with most of the decline driven by lower OSB prices and weaker OSB volumes.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Siding Revenue and Pricing Strength
Siding sales increased 4% year-over-year with average selling prices up 7%, contributing $27M to revenue and EBITDA; Siding delivered a 26% EBITDA margin and performed above the midpoint of guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q3 2026 Siding revenue of $460–$470 million (the low end would tie the prior record) and Siding EBITDA of $110–$120 million (~25% margin), affirmed prior full‑year Siding revenue/EBITDA/margin guidance, and said they expect Siding year‑over‑year volume and revenue growth in Q3 driven mainly by higher selling prices and modest volume gains; for OSB they forecast Q3 EBITDA of about negative $45 million and full‑year OSB EBITDA of roughly negative $120 million assuming current prices hold (OSB prices were noted as roughly $12 lower since the May call and about $15 below the guidance algorithm at quarter‑end). They reduced 2026 CapEx to about $320 million (a $70 million cut from prior guidance), with Siding representing roughly 75% of total CapEx and essentially all growth CapEx; Q2 operating cash flow was $140 million, Q2 CapEx was $59 million, $21 million was returned to shareholders, cash on hand was $228 million and total liquidity was just under $1 billion (including a $750 million undrawn revolver). Management also reiterated ExpertFinish capacity additions — Green Bay ramping, ~20 million feet coming at Bath later this year, and a new North Branch painting facility underway — to support the expected Siding recovery.Louisiana-Pacific Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
53
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.47B | 2.71B | 2.94B | 2.58B | 3.85B | 3.92B |
| Gross Profit | 445.00M | 589.00M | 831.00M | 593.00M | 1.50B | 1.96B |
| EBITDA | 227.00M | 354.00M | 659.00M | 381.00M | 1.36B | 1.86B |
| Net Income | 54.00M | 146.00M | 420.00M | 178.00M | 1.09B | 1.38B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.61B | 2.63B | 2.57B | 2.44B | 2.35B | 2.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 228.00M | 292.00M | 340.00M | 222.00M | 369.00M | 358.00M |
| Total Debt | 377.00M | 401.00M | 380.00M | 378.00M | 395.00M | 397.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 863.00M | 895.00M | 898.00M | 880.00M | 916.00M | 955.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.74B | 1.73B | 1.67B | 1.56B | 1.43B | 1.24B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -19.00M | 91.00M | 422.00M | 16.00M | 730.00M | 1.23B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 260.00M | 382.00M | 605.00M | 316.00M | 1.14B | 1.48B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -278.00M | -291.00M | -183.00M | -376.00M | -146.00M | -247.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -84.00M | -141.00M | -292.00M | -77.00M | -982.00M | -1.39B |
Louisiana-Pacific Technical Analysis
Negative
72.32
Price Trends
71.84
Negative
72.81
Negative
77.12
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.05
Positive
38.13
Neutral
13.69
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LPX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 72.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.95, above the 50-day MA of 71.84, and below the 200-day MA of 77.12, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.69 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LPX.
Louisiana-Pacific Risk Analysis
Louisiana-Pacific disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Louisiana-Pacific reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Louisiana-Pacific Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $4.52B | 18.22 | 7.92% | 1.80% | -4.72% | -24.05% | |
65 Neutral | $11.41B | 7.17 | 17.50% | 2.30% | 0.87% | 12.10% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $1.43B | 19.22 | 7.84% | 4.89% | -7.13% | -64.17% | |
56 Neutral | $4.57B | 83.32 | 3.11% | 1.79% | -14.37% | -81.88% | |
55 Neutral | $340.62M | -6.91 | -6.13% | ― | -1.93% | 48.75% | |
39 Underperform | $24.93M | -0.05 | -638.67% | 8.62% | -4.81% | -372.95% |
* Industrials Sector Average
LPX
Louisiana-Pacific
65.82
-23.71
-26.48%
CLW
Clearwater Paper
21.00
-0.78
-3.58%
MERC
Mercer International
0.38
-2.69
-87.49%
UFPI
UFP Industries
79.25
-17.39
-18.00%
SUZ
Suzano Papel e Celulose SA
9.26
-0.11
-1.22%
SLVM
Sylvamo Corp
36.80
-6.61
-15.23%
Louisiana-Pacific Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Louisiana-Pacific to Curtail OSB Production at Jasper Mill
Negative
Sep 1, 2026
LP Building Solutions, a major producer of engineered wood and oriented strand board products, announced on September 1, 2026, that it will indefinitely curtail OSB production at its Jasper, Texas facility starting in October 2026 due to soft dema...
Dividends
Louisiana-Pacific Declares Quarterly Dividend, Reinforcing Shareholder Focus
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
On July 31, 2026, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation announced that its Board of Directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share for common stockholders, underscoring its ongoing commitment to shareholder returns. The dividend was s...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.