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Carmax Inc (KMX)
NYSE:KMX
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CarMax (KMX) AI Stock Analysis

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KMX

CarMax

(NYSE:KMX)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - Gpt-5.6Sol)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$62.00
▼(-1.02% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/30/26
Overall score reflects mixed fundamentals: improving revenue and cash flow are offset by thin margins, inconsistent operating profitability, and high leverage. A strongly positive earnings call (strong sales/EPS growth and cost-savings progress) lifts the outlook, while technicals are neutral and valuation (P/E ~28.6 with no dividend yield provided) is a modest drag.
Positive Factors
Strong used-vehicle sales growth
Strong comparable sales and unit growth indicate improving customer demand and effective execution in CarMax’s core used-vehicle retail model. Outperformance versus the described industry trend can support greater inventory throughput, operating leverage, and sustained revenue expansion over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Thin and inconsistent operating profitability
Very low net profitability leaves limited room to absorb weaker pricing, higher operating costs, or changes in demand. Repeatedly negative annual EBIT also suggests that recent improvement has not yet established a durable earnings base, limiting operating resilience over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong used-vehicle sales growth
Strong comparable sales and unit growth indicate improving customer demand and effective execution in CarMax’s core used-vehicle retail model. Outperformance versus the described industry trend can support greater inventory throughput, operating leverage, and sustained revenue expansion over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors

CarMax Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Gross Profit by Segment
Gross Profit by Segment
Highlights profitability across different segments, providing insight into which areas contribute most to the bottom line and where cost efficiencies or pricing power are strongest.
Chart InsightsUsed remains CarMax’s largest gross‑profit engine but has suffered persistent margin erosion—profit per used unit has fallen and management has taken GPU concessions to regain share—so recent May spikes look seasonal rather than durable. Wholesale and Other (CAF/EPP/F&I) are the clearest offsets, steadily improving on stronger wholesale prices and rising CAF penetration. Management is counting on EPP rollout and $200M exit‑rate SG&A savings to rebuild used margins, but recon, digital conversion and ongoing GPU tradeoffs keep near‑term profitability at risk.
Data provided by:The Fly

CarMax (KMX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

CarMax Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
CarMax, Inc., together with its associated entities, functions as a prominent purveyor of previously owned automobiles across the United States. Its business operations are strategically structured into two principal divisions: CarMax Sales Operat...
How the Company Makes Money
CarMax makes money through multiple, complementary revenue streams tied to used-vehicle retailing and related services. (1) Retail used vehicle sales: The largest source of revenue is the sale of used cars to consumers. CarMax buys vehicles via cu...

CarMax Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 29, 2026
(Q2-2027)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive, with substantial year-over-year growth in sales, comparable units, EPS, gross profit, CAF income, EPP margins, and SG&A productivity. Management also highlighted improved pricing competitiveness, resilient consumers, AI and digital initiatives, strategy execution, and the planned resumption of share repurchases. The main negatives were lower gross profit per unit, declining CAF penetration, an expectation for slightly lower FY2027 CAF income, upcoming pension and severance charges, higher transportation costs, and affordability pressure from elevated interest rates. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.
Positive Updates
Strong Sales Growth
Second-quarter total sales were $7.9 billion, up 19% year-over-year. Approximately 388,000 vehicles were sold across retail and wholesale channels, up 15%. Used unit comps increased 13%, total used unit sales grew 14%, and wholesale unit sales increased 16%.
Negative Updates
Used Retail Gross Profit Per Unit Declined
Used retail profit per unit was $2,105, down $111 year-over-year. Management expects FY2027 full-year retail margins to be down less than $200 per unit versus FY2026.
Read all updates
Q2-2027 Updates
Negative
Strong Sales Growth
Second-quarter total sales were $7.9 billion, up 19% year-over-year. Approximately 388,000 vehicles were sold across retail and wholesale channels, up 15%. Used unit comps increased 13%, total used unit sales grew 14%, and wholesale unit sales increased 16%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CarMax expects FY '27 full year retail margins will be down less than the $200 per unit as compared to FY '26, with GPUs expected to be down less than $200 year-over-year for the year and to decrease in the third quarter and in the fourth quarter as well, both year-over-year; it remains on track to deliver $200 million in identified savings as an FY '27 exit rate target, drive approximately $35 per unit in incremental EPP margin for the full fiscal year, and record approximately $50 million in total settlement-related noncash, nonrecurring charges, with relatively similar amounts expected to be recognized in the third and fourth quarters; CAF's FY '27 income is anticipated to be slightly lower than FY '26 while planning to originate nearly $1 billion in Tier 2 by year-end, and share repurchases are expected to restart in the third quarter at a modest pace below the average quarterly pace prior to the pause.

CarMax Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financials are mixed: TTM revenue is growing (+4.87%) and operating/free cash flow have rebounded (TTM OCF ~$1.6B; FCF ~$1.15B). Offsetting this, profitability is thin (net margin ~0.8%), operating performance has been inconsistent (EBIT negative in most annual periods vs. positive in 2022), and leverage remains elevated (~3.0x debt-to-equity) with ROE down to low single-digits (~3.7% TTM).
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
41
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
BreakdownTTMFeb 2026Feb 2025Feb 2024Feb 2023Feb 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue27.63B25.88B26.35B26.54B29.68B31.90B
Gross Profit2.78B2.81B2.90B2.71B2.80B3.29B
EBITDA1.04B1.61B1.84B1.67B1.33B2.09B
Net Income292.44M247.29M500.56M479.20M484.76M1.15B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets26.07B26.37B27.40B27.20B26.18B26.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments170.53M122.83M246.96M574.14M314.76M102.72M
Total Debt17.87B17.78B19.43B19.31B18.93B19.27B
Total Liabilities19.76B20.48B21.16B21.12B20.57B21.10B
Stockholders Equity6.30B5.89B6.24B6.07B5.61B5.24B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.15B1.24B156.50M-6.69M860.62M-2.86B
Operating Cash Flow1.60B1.78B624.44M458.62M1.28B-2.55B
Investing Cash Flow-437.84M-540.04M-461.00M-467.00M-425.77M-523.75M
Financing Cash Flow-1.55B-1.34B-453.54M307.79M-710.18M3.10B

CarMax Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price62.64
Price Trends
50DMA
58.69
Negative
100DMA
54.95
Negative
200DMA
48.61
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.84
Positive
RSI
30.79
Neutral
STOCH
5.48
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KMX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 62.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.11, above the 50-day MA of 58.69, and above the 200-day MA of 48.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.84 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.48 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KMX.

CarMax Risk Analysis

CarMax disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CarMax reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

CarMax Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$65.49B20.5746.57%―53.98%159.43%
66
Neutral
$6.30B9.4510.91%0.83%1.97%-10.60%
65
Neutral
$2.94B6.1213.04%―4.12%-2.47%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
58
Neutral
$7.20B23.804.80%―4.09%-40.01%
56
Neutral
$5.14B7.0633.18%―-0.06%35.87%
53
Neutral
$1.92B9.5320.45%2.60%5.25%37.36%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KMX
CarMax
50.69
6.69
15.20%
ABG
Asbury
163.93
-82.28
-33.42%
AN
AutoNation
155.44
-65.55
-29.66%
LAD
Driveway Vehicle Solutions
286.45
-22.80
-7.37%
SAH
Sonic Automotive
60.81
-13.44
-18.10%
CVNA
Carvana Co
59.51
-9.67
-13.98%

CarMax Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
CarMax announces leadership transition and consulting arrangement
Neutral
Jul 31, 2026
On July 31, 2026, CarMax announced that Executive Vice President and Chief Innovation and People Officer Diane Cafritz will leave the company effective December 31, 2026, with changes to her severance terms. Her payout will be based on one-and-a-h...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 30, 2026