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AutoNation
(NYSE:AN)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$180.00
▼(-9.43% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/18/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening financial performance (notably the sharp TTM revenue decline and near-zero free cash flow) and a very bearish technical setup with the stock well below key moving averages. These negatives are partially offset by an inexpensive valuation (low P/E) and a constructive earnings-call outlook emphasizing SG&A improvement, strong adjusted free cash flow generation, and continued scaling of higher-margin aftersales and finance.
Positive Factors
Aftersales growth
Record aftersales profit and customer-pay growth support a more recurring earnings base than vehicle sales alone. Repeat repair orders, warranty activity, and the installed vehicle base can sustain service demand and help offset cyclicality in new and used retail.
Negative Factors
Revenue and margin contraction
The sharp TTM revenue decline and lower net margin show that recent earnings have weakened materially from prior levels. Even with stable gross margins, continued pressure from volume, mix, pricing, or operating costs could constrain profit growth and reduce resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Aftersales growth
Record aftersales profit and customer-pay growth support a more recurring earnings base than vehicle sales alone. Repeat repair orders, warranty activity, and the installed vehicle base can sustain service demand and help offset cyclicality in new and used retail.
Read all positive factors
AutoNation (AN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.20B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)603.59K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.1
Beta (1Y)0.72
Revenue Growth-0.06%
EPS Growth35.87%
CountryUS
Employees24,800
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Dealerships
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)22.03
Shares Outstanding33,060,806
10 Day Avg. Volume628,495
30 Day Avg. Volume603,586
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-41.42
Price to Book (P/B)3.36
Price to Sales (P/S)0.28
P/FCF Ratio-39.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.36
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.64
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.72
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$225.11Price Target Upside13.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)21.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$27.67B
AutoNation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AutoNation, Inc. functions as an automotive retailer throughout the United States, organizing its operations across three primary segments: Domestic, Import, and Premium Luxury. The company offers a comprehensive array of automotive products and s...
How the Company Makes Money
AutoNation primarily makes money through a mix of vehicle retailing and higher-margin recurring service activities. Key revenue streams include: (1) New vehicle sales: Revenue is generated from selling new cars and trucks through franchised dealer...
AutoNation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and financial picture: strong and growing high-margin aftersales and CFS businesses, accelerating AutoNation Finance scale and profitability, robust free cash flow and meaningful share repurchases driving share count reduction and EPS growth. Headwinds included lower new vehicle volumes driven by BEV weakness, some compression in new vehicle per-unit profit versus the prior year, and mix-related margin impacts (wholesale parts growth is high-revenue but lower-margin). Management highlighted clear plans and progress on SG&A improvement, technician hiring, parts wholesale scaling, and disciplined capital allocation. On balance, the positive cash generation, durable recurring aftersales earnings and the scaling finance business outweigh the headwinds outlined on the call.Positive Updates
Continued EPS Growth
Adjusted EPS of $5.56 for Q2 2026, up from $5.46 a year ago (≈+1.8%), marking the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year adjusted EPS growth.
Negative Updates
Slight Decline in Total Gross Profit and Operating Income
Total gross profit was $1.23B in Q2 2026 versus $1.28B a year ago (≈-3.9% YoY). Adjusted operating income was $343M versus $369M a year ago (≈-7% YoY), reflecting tariff/BEV headwinds and mix shifts.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Continued EPS Growth
Adjusted EPS of $5.56 for Q2 2026, up from $5.46 a year ago (≈+1.8%), marking the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year adjusted EPS growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call management reiterated guidance for the second half and full year: SG&A should improve to a run‑rate of roughly 66%–67% of gross profit by year‑end, adjusted EPS is expected to grow in H2, and full‑year CapEx is targeted at about $325 million. They highlighted strong cash generation — adjusted free cash flow was $439M YTD (125% conversion) with >$180M in Q2 — and disciplined capital deployment (H1 buybacks $457M, M&A $317M, acquisitions adding ~$600M in annual revenue and ~9,700 units); covenant leverage remains comfortably inside the 2x–3x EBITDA target. Operationally they expect aftersales to deliver mid‑single‑digit customer‑pay gross profit growth, AutoNation Finance to keep scaling (portfolio $2.67B, 91% debt funded, $11M Q2 profit, $485M originations, 11% penetration of sales), off‑lease/lease returns to accelerate in H2 (up ~30%–40%), and overall unit volumes to track market SAARs while sustaining margin profiles (Q2: total gross margin ~17.8%, adj. operating income $343M/~5% margin; new GPU ~$2,381; used GPU ~$1,582).AutoNation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 27.45B | 27.63B | 26.77B | 26.95B | 26.98B | 25.84B |
| Gross Profit | 4.90B | 4.95B | 4.79B | 5.13B | 5.27B | 4.95B |
| EBITDA | 1.63B | 1.58B | 1.60B | 1.92B | 2.21B | 2.12B |
| Net Income | 774.70M | 649.10M | 692.20M | 1.02B | 1.38B | 1.37B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.48B | 14.39B | 13.00B | 11.98B | 10.06B | 8.94B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 123.90M | 58.60M | 101.50M | 60.80M | 72.60M | 60.40M |
| Total Debt | 11.33B | 10.18B | 8.65B | 8.12B | 6.42B | 4.95B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.23B | 12.05B | 10.54B | 9.77B | 8.01B | 6.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.26B | 2.34B | 2.46B | 2.21B | 2.05B | 2.38B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 12.10M | -197.50M | -13.80M | 313.70M | 1.34B | 1.41B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 293.30M | 111.90M | 314.70M | 724.00M | 1.67B | 1.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -904.40M | -687.00M | 12.30M | -569.90M | -479.30M | -460.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 646.10M | 557.50M | -300.60M | -172.50M | -1.15B | -1.68B |
AutoNation Technical Analysis
Negative
198.75
Price Trends
190.93
Negative
192.88
Negative
197.40
Negative
Market Momentum
-10.41
Negative
30.08
Neutral
26.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 198.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 168.73, above the 50-day MA of 190.93, and above the 200-day MA of 197.40, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -10.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 30.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AN.
AutoNation Risk Analysis
AutoNation disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AutoNation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AutoNation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $6.38B | 9.58 | 10.91% | 0.82% | 1.97% | -10.60% | |
66 Neutral | $12.88B | 14.44 | 16.43% | 2.88% | 4.13% | -5.43% | |
65 Neutral | $3.01B | 6.26 | 13.04% | ― | 4.12% | -2.47% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $5.20B | 7.14 | 33.18% | ― | -0.06% | 35.87% | |
54 Neutral | $2.77B | 9.59 | 9.96% | 0.93% | 0.81% | -33.60% | |
53 Neutral | $1.91B | 9.50 | 20.45% | 2.61% | 5.25% | 37.36% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AN
AutoNation
157.38
-58.47
-27.09%
ABG
Asbury
167.60
-71.75
-29.98%
GPI
Group 1 Automotive
232.01
-189.04
-44.90%
LAD
Driveway Vehicle Solutions
290.24
-10.00
-3.33%
PAG
Penske Automotive Group
196.16
33.12
20.31%
SAH
Sonic Automotive
60.56
-9.71
-13.82%
AutoNation Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
AutoNation Expands Revolving Credit Facility, Extends Maturity
Positive
Sep 15, 2026
On September 14, 2026, AutoNation, Inc. amended and restated its unsecured credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank and other lenders, expanding its revolving credit facility commitment from $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion and extending the maturity...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.