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Heineken
(OTC:HEINY)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$50.00
â–²(15.00% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is primarily driven by solid (but not peak) financial performance: stable cash generation and a 2025 earnings rebound are offset by softer recent revenue, below-prior net margins, and rising leverage. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation (P/E ~29 with a moderate ~2.39% yield) is the main drag on the overall score.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Heineken's consistent operating cash flow (~€5.0B) and free cash flow (~€2.6B) provide durable internal financing for capex, brand investment and dividends. Reliable cash conversion across cycles supports debt service and strategic reinvestment even if revenue growth is uneven.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
Leverage rising to roughly parity with equity reduces financial flexibility and raises interest service risk. For a cyclical consumer staples business, higher debt limits ability to absorb shocks, constrains M&A or investment optionality, and increases sensitivity to rate moves.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Heineken's consistent operating cash flow (~€5.0B) and free cash flow (~€2.6B) provide durable internal financing for capex, brand investment and dividends. Reliable cash conversion across cycles supports debt service and strategic reinvestment even if revenue growth is uneven.
Read all positive factors
Heineken (HEINY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$47.44B
Dividend Yield1.01%
Average Volume (3M)29.03K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.1
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth8.15%
EPS Growth35.87%
CountryUS
Employees87,160
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.06
Shares Outstanding1,130,860,800
10 Day Avg. Volume69,116
30 Day Avg. Volume29,026
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.25
Price to Book (P/B)2.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.34
P/FCF Ratio14.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)3.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$35.56B
Heineken Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Heineken N.V. specializes in the production and global distribution of alcoholic beverages, primarily beer and cider, supplemented by non-alcoholic options such as soft drinks and water. The company boasts an extensive portfolio of beer labels, fe...
How the Company Makes Money
Heineken makes money primarily by selling alcoholic beverages—predominantly beer—through a mix of owned brewing operations and distribution networks across multiple geographies. Revenue is generated from (1) sales of branded beer and related alcoh...
Heineken Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a resilient performance with strong profit growth and positive momentum in key markets like APAC and AME. However, challenges such as volume declines, currency impacts, and operational issues in Europe weigh on the overall outlook. Strategic initiatives and sustainability progress provide a positive long-term outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Profit Growth
Operating profit (beia) grew by 7.4%, with a margin increase of 26 basis points to 14.3%. Net profit (beia) increased by 7.5% organically.
Negative Updates
Decline in Beer Volume
Total beer volume was down by 1.2%, with Europe experiencing a 4.7% decline due to prolonged retail negotiations.
Read all updates
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Profit Growth
Operating profit (beia) grew by 7.4%, with a margin increase of 26 basis points to 14.3%. Net profit (beia) increased by 7.5% organically.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
In the 2025 half-year results call, Heineken reiterated its robust profit growth, despite facing macroeconomic challenges. The company reported a 7.4% increase in operating profit (beia) and a 2.1% organic growth in net revenue (beia) to €14.2 billion. Volume growth was slightly negative at -1.2%, but net revenue per liter (beia) improved by 3.3%. The Heineken brand showed a 4.5% volume growth, while operating margin increased by 26 basis points to 14.3%. Notably, Africa and the Middle East contributed significantly with a 19.8% organic net revenue rise and over 50% growth in operating profit (beia) in euros. The guidance for the full-year operating profit (beia) remains at an organic growth range of 4% to 8%.Heineken Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 29.71B | 28.75B | 29.82B | 30.36B | 28.72B | 21.94B |
| Gross Profit | 6.99B | 10.29B | 10.51B | 10.70B | 11.36B | 8.57B |
| EBITDA | 6.00B | 5.80B | 5.29B | 5.15B | 6.41B | 6.39B |
| Net Income | 2.28B | 1.89B | 978.00M | 2.30B | 2.68B | 3.32B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 58.02B | 53.75B | 53.77B | 55.15B | 53.42B | 49.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.83B | 4.77B | 2.35B | 2.38B | 2.77B | 3.25B |
| Total Debt | 20.64B | 19.28B | 17.05B | 18.24B | 16.38B | 16.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 36.32B | 33.14B | 31.37B | 32.36B | 31.50B | 30.12B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.11B | 17.98B | 19.58B | 20.06B | 19.55B | 17.36B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.00B | 2.61B | 3.04B | 1.75B | 2.48B | 2.58B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.94B | 5.01B | 5.50B | 4.43B | 4.50B | 4.18B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.99B | -2.46B | -2.44B | -3.58B | -2.29B | -2.29B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -329.05M | 153.00M | -2.57B | -816.00M | -3.13B | -2.87B |
Heineken Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $45.52B | 14.28 | 18.13% | 4.28% | 4.24% | 19.95% | |
71 Outperform | $23.82B | 19.71 | 13.60% | 6.08% | 18.16% | 89.79% | |
66 Neutral | $47.44B | 18.08 | 12.22% | 2.54% | 8.15% | 35.87% | |
65 Neutral | $159.90B | 13.31 | 12.72% | 1.65% | 6.60% | 31.61% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $2.22B | 19.22 | 7.53% | 2.49% | 0.56% | -28.00% | |
57 Neutral | $7.90B | -3.61 | -22.65% | 4.64% | -1.77% | -326.16% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
HEINY
Heineken
42.67
3.52
8.99%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
79.19
18.84
31.22%
CCU
Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA
11.65
-0.74
-5.99%
FMX
Fomento Economico Mexicano
117.50
37.09
46.13%
TAP
Molson Coors
41.57
-8.01
-16.16%
ABEV
Ambev SA
2.82
0.70
32.96%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.