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Ambev SA
(NYSE:ABEV)
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Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$4.00
â–²(36.52% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/06/26
ABEV scores well primarily on strong financial quality (high margins, very low leverage, and dependable cash generation). Earnings-call commentary reinforces that operating momentum and cash flow are improving despite manageable cost, weather, and regional risks. The main constraints are an overbought technical setup (RSI ~73) and only moderate valuation support (P/E ~15.9, yield ~3.7%).
Positive Factors
Resilient profitability and margins
Ambev’s consistently high gross, EBITDA, and net margins indicate meaningful scale advantages and strong operating economics. This profitability provides room to keep investing in brands, distribution, and innovation while absorbing moderate cost inflation, supporting durable earnings quality over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Uneven top-line growth and Brazil NAB weakness
Although recent revenue growth is positive, uneven annual performance shows that volume and commercial momentum are not uniform across the portfolio. The strategic phase-out of a lower-return Brazil NAB channel creates a continuing comparison headwind, potentially limiting consolidated top-line growth over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Resilient profitability and margins
Ambev’s consistently high gross, EBITDA, and net margins indicate meaningful scale advantages and strong operating economics. This profitability provides room to keep investing in brands, distribution, and innovation while absorbing moderate cost inflation, supporting durable earnings quality over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Ambev SA (ABEV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$51.47B
Dividend Yield3.68%
Average Volume (3M)22.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.2
Beta (1Y)0.11
Revenue Growth4.24%
EPS Growth19.95%
CountryUS
Employees39,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.04
Shares Outstanding15,484,665,000
10 Day Avg. Volume26,984,738
30 Day Avg. Volume22,013,047
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.80
Price to Book (P/B)2.40
Price to Sales (P/S)2.39
P/FCF Ratio10.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.89
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.52
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.30Price Target Upside12.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$17.53B
Ambev SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ambev S.A., operating through its various subsidiaries, is a prominent player in the beverage and food industry across the Americas. The company is engaged in the manufacturing, marketing, and distribution of a diverse portfolio of products, inclu...
How the Company Makes Money
Ambev makes money mainly by selling beverages to a broad set of customers, including retailers (e.g., supermarkets and convenience stores), wholesalers/distributors, and on-premise accounts (e.g., bars, restaurants, and entertainment venues). Its ...
Ambev SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: volume growth (notably in Beer), double-digit EPS/net income expansion, robust operating cash flow, marketplace acceleration and market-share gains across key markets. These positives were tempered by several notable headwinds — Brazil NAB weakness (partly strategic), adverse weather effects that suppressed industry volumes, localized disruptions in Bolivia, higher Brazil COGS in H1, and elevated household financial pressure. On balance, the company's execution, margin expansion and cash generation substantially outweigh the challenges, which management positions as manageable or partially transitory.Positive Updates
Quarterly Volume and Beer Growth
Total volumes grew 1.4% year-over-year in Q2, with Beer volumes up mid-single digits; first half total volumes grew 0.7% with Beer volumes growing ahead of the total.
Negative Updates
Brazil NAB Volume Decline
Brazil Non-Alcoholic Beverages (NAB) volumes declined 4.4% in Q2; ~30% of the decline was due to strategic phase-out of a lower-return fast-food channel, prolonging a year-over-year headwind over subsequent quarters despite double-digit NAB EBITDA growth and >300 bps margin expansion.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Volume and Beer Growth
Total volumes grew 1.4% year-over-year in Q2, with Beer volumes up mid-single digits; first half total volumes grew 0.7% with Beer volumes growing ahead of the total.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management left full‑year Brazil beer cash COGS per hectoliter guidance unchanged at +4.5%–7.5% and framed the business to convert Q2 momentum into H2: Q2 volumes +1.4% YoY (beer mid‑single‑digit), Q2 net revenue +6%, Q2 normalized EBITDA +8.9% to BRL 6.4bn (+80bps margin expansion) and Q2 normalized EPS up ~24% to BRL 0.22; H1 totals were: volumes +0.7%, net revenue +7%, normalized EBITDA ≈+9.6%–10% (1.3x operational leverage), normalized net income +10.1% and operating cash flow ~BRL 7.9–8.0bn. They also noted cost and tax dynamics (consolidated cash COGS/hL ex‑Marketplace +2.2% in Q2; Brazil beer cash COGS/hL +9.7% H1), consolidated cash SG&A +10.7% in Q2, net financial expenses BRL 486m (‑50% YoY), ETR 19.9% in Q2 (20.6% H1), strong digital momentum (Bees GMV ≈+60% in Q2 and H1; H1 Marketplace gross margin +6.7pp to 22%), and continued shareholder returns (≈95% of 208m share buyback executed ~BRL 3.2bn, 2025 IOC BRL 4.2bn payable, 2026 IOC declared BRL 1.8bn; ~BRL 5.9bn returned to date).Ambev SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 88.27B | 88.24B | 89.45B | 79.74B | 79.71B | 72.85B |
| Gross Profit | 45.81B | 45.38B | 45.84B | 40.45B | 39.29B | 37.19B |
| EBITDA | 29.69B | 28.97B | 29.01B | 24.27B | 23.08B | 20.99B |
| Net Income | 16.25B | 15.50B | 14.44B | 14.50B | 14.46B | 12.67B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 138.21B | 148.11B | 162.51B | 132.64B | 137.96B | 138.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.35B | 20.32B | 29.84B | 16.34B | 15.38B | 18.54B |
| Total Debt | 2.95B | 5.35B | 3.45B | 3.50B | 3.85B | 3.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 49.32B | 59.34B | 62.93B | 52.50B | 54.63B | 54.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 88.31B | 87.91B | 98.64B | 78.97B | 81.96B | 82.64B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 24.02B | 19.86B | 21.35B | 18.71B | 14.11B | 15.22B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 28.04B | 24.45B | 26.10B | 24.71B | 20.64B | 22.90B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.47B | -4.95B | -5.46B | -5.77B | -5.00B | -7.74B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -19.63B | -26.77B | -10.35B | -16.12B | -16.34B | -16.04B |
Ambev SA Technical Analysis
Positive
2.93
Price Trends
2.98
Positive
3.04
Positive
2.98
Positive
Market Momentum
0.08
Negative
69.83
Neutral
75.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABEV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.08, below the 50-day MA of 2.98, and below the 200-day MA of 2.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ABEV.
Ambev SA Risk Analysis
Ambev SA disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ambev SA reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
New ESG regulations may be enacted and this may result in increased costs for Ambev to comply with them. Q4, 2023
2.
Our commitment to social responsibility may result in the incurrence of additional costs, and we are subject to laws, regulations and other obligations in furtherance of human rights, social justice and labor standards that may exposes us to additional contingencies. Q4, 2023
3.
Continuing high rates of inflation in Argentina may have an adverse effect on the economy and our business, financial condition and results of operations. Q4, 2023
Ambev SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $51.47B | 16.19 | 18.13% | 3.68% | 4.24% | 19.95% | |
74 Outperform | $49.82B | 22.52 | 24.78% | 2.02% | 9.67% | 42.56% | |
69 Neutral | $22.23B | 11.77 | 23.58% | 3.12% | -4.31% | 62.57% | |
69 Neutral | $25.52B | 22.93 | 13.60% | 5.95% | 18.16% | 89.79% | |
66 Neutral | $164.68B | 13.97 | 12.72% | 1.63% | 6.60% | 31.61% | |
66 Neutral | $53.11B | 30.58 | 15.52% | 2.10% | -3.59% | -26.73% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
ABEV
Ambev SA
3.29
1.13
52.53%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
82.59
21.35
34.87%
STZ
Constellation Brands
131.35
-5.87
-4.28%
DEO
Diageo
95.11
-0.73
-0.76%
FMX
Fomento Economico Mexicano
126.46
36.16
40.04%
CCEP
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners
112.40
23.98
27.12%
Ambev SA Corporate Events
Ambev Details August 2026 Insider Holdings and Management Share Transfer
Sep 9, 2026
From August 1 to 31, 2026, Ambev reported that members of its board of directors, management, and fiscal council conducted no market transactions in Ambev securities or derivatives beyond the movements detailed in its consolidated forms, leaving t...
Ambev Details Major Treasury Share Cancellations and Purchases for August 2026
Sep 9, 2026
In August 2026, Ambev reported a series of treasury stock movements under Brazil’s CVM Instruction 44, detailing transactions in its own common shares. The disclosure, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on September 9, 20...
Ambev Discloses July 2026 Insider Trades, Board Sells All ADR Holdings
Aug 10, 2026
Between July 1 and July 31, 2026, Ambev reported that its board of directors and related persons sold all 468,040 of their common-share ADRs via J.P. Morgan, fully eliminating the board’s ADR holdings while maintaining an unchanged position ...
Ambev Boosts Treasury Share Holdings with July 2026 Buybacks
Aug 10, 2026
In July 2026, Ambev S.A. executed a series of transactions involving its own common shares held in treasury, as disclosed in a regulatory filing under CVM Instruction 44/2021. The company delivered 203,463 restricted shares directly and purchased ...
Ambev Updates Corporate Governance Report Under Brazilian Code
Jul 31, 2026
On July 31, 2026, Ambev S.A. issued an updated report on its adherence to the Brazilian Code of Corporate Governance for publicly held companies, detailing which recommended practices it has adopted, partially adopted, or not adopted. The document...
Ambev Files July 2026 Form 6-K, Reaffirming U.S. Reporting Status
Jul 30, 2026
Ambev S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the month of July 2026, formally documenting its status and compliance as a foreign private issuer. The filing, signed on July 30, 2026 by Chief Financial and Investo...
Ambev Board Sets 2026 Interest-on-Capital Payouts and Confirms Logistics EVP Start Date
Jul 30, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Ambev’s board approved the payment schedule for shareholder remuneration related to interest on capital declared in December 2025, setting October 6, 2026, as the date for the third and final installment at a gross R$0.1185...
Ambev Approves R$2.7 Billion in Interest on Capital Payments for 2026
Jul 30, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Ambev’s board approved the payment of the third and final installment of interest on capital originally declared on December 9, 2025, with shareholders of record in December 2025 set to receive a net R$0.1007 per share on O...
Ambev Secures Clean Review on June 30, 2026 Interim Financials
Jul 30, 2026
Ambev released its interim consolidated financial statements for the quarter and six-month period ended June 30, 2026, which were reviewed by PricewaterhouseCoopers in accordance with international standards for interim reviews. The auditor issued...
Ambev Delivers Strong Q2 2026 Results, Boosts Payouts and Launches Spaten Pro
Jul 30, 2026
Ambev reported solid second-quarter and first-half 2026 results, highlighting beer-led growth and operational discipline. In 2Q26, consolidated volumes rose 1.4% and net revenue grew 6.1% year-on-year, with all business units contributing to top-l...
Ambev Boosts Treasury Stock with June 2026 Share Buybacks
Jul 10, 2026
In June 2026, Ambev reported that its only securities and derivatives transactions involved movements in its treasury stock, in line with Brazilian CVM Instruction 44 disclosure rules. The company detailed activity in its common shares and ADR-equ...
Ambev Reports No Insider Trading Activity for June 2026
Jul 10, 2026
From June 1 to June 30, 2026, Ambev S.A. reported consolidated positions in its common shares and ADRs held by board, management and fiscal council members under Brazilian CVM Instruction 44/2021. The disclosure covers both locally listed shares a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.