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Constellation Brands
(NYSE:STZ)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$149.00
â–²(10.36% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/07/26
STZ scores well on valuation (low P/E and a solid dividend) and is supported by an upbeat earnings call with reiterated guidance and improving trends. Offsetting this, financial performance is mixed due to earnings volatility and weaker recent cash-flow conversion, and the technical setup remains bearish with the stock below key moving averages and negative momentum indicators.
Positive Factors
Beer brand momentum
Pacifico’s rapid growth and top-10 status strengthen Constellation’s branded beer platform beyond its established leaders. Continued distribution expansion can support durable volume growth, improve portfolio diversification, and reinforce the company’s position in U.S. beverage alcohol.
Negative Factors
Uneven revenue and earnings consistency
The history of revenue softness and repeated loss years indicates that attractive margins have not translated into consistently stable earnings. Such volatility can constrain planning, reduce confidence in durable profit growth, and make performance more sensitive to brand, category, or execution setbacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Beer brand momentum
Pacifico’s rapid growth and top-10 status strengthen Constellation’s branded beer platform beyond its established leaders. Continued distribution expansion can support durable volume growth, improve portfolio diversification, and reinforce the company’s position in U.S. beverage alcohol.
Read all positive factors
Constellation Brands Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Reports profitability for each segment, exposing which businesses generate the most earnings and margins, and revealing operational leverage, cost pressures, or efficiency gains that drive the company’s bottom-line performance.
Reports profitability for each segment, exposing which businesses generate the most earnings and margins, and revealing operational leverage, cost pressures, or efficiency gains that drive the company’s bottom-line performance.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyConstellation Brands (STZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.11B
Dividend Yield3.14%
Average Volume (3M)2.51M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.7
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth-4.31%
EPS Growth62.57%
CountryUS
Employees9,400
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.16
Shares Outstanding169,198,490
10 Day Avg. Volume1,984,373
30 Day Avg. Volume2,506,286
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)3.43
Price to Sales (P/S)3.03
P/FCF Ratio15.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.56
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.76
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.10
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$153.58Price Target Upside13.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)11.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.12B
Constellation Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. The company offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar...
How the Company Makes Money
Constellation Brands makes money primarily by selling beverage alcohol products—most significantly beer—into the U.S. market. Revenue is generated when the company ships branded products to customers (generally wholesalers/distributors and, in som...
Constellation Brands Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 06, 2026
(Q2-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 07, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly optimistic. Management reported a quarterly beat, reiterated fiscal 2027 guidance, cited improving September trends, leading share gains, healthy distributor inventories, strong growth from Pacifico, Victoria, Mi CAMPO, and SpikedAde, and substantial capital allocation flexibility. The main challenges were seasonal second-half margin pressures, higher planned marketing and SG&A spending, flat Q2 price/mix, Corona's performance still being below expectations, and a future depreciation headwind from Veracruz. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.Positive Updates
Quarterly Results Beat Expectations and Guidance Reiterated
Management stated that fiscal 2027 second-quarter results beat expectations and reiterated comparable EPS guidance of $11.20 to $11.90 per share. If the positive September trends continue, the company expects to land at the high end of that range.
Negative Updates
First-Half Inventory Rebuilding Created Channel Inefficiencies
Management said inventories had been overcorrected in fiscal 2026 and the company entered fiscal 2027 too light. This tested the lower limits of days on hand, created channel inefficiencies, required work to move product around, and contributed to distributor order backlogs and the need to avoid out-of-stocks.
Read all updates
Q2-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Results Beat Expectations and Guidance Reiterated
Management stated that fiscal 2027 second-quarter results beat expectations and reiterated comparable EPS guidance of $11.20 to $11.90 per share. If the positive September trends continue, the company expects to land at the high end of that range.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Constellation Brands reiterated fiscal 2027 guidance for comparable EPS of $11.20 to $11.90 per share and said that, if the positive September trends continue, it would expect to land at the high end of that range; it said there would need to be a real reversal in trends to contemplate the low end. For the full year, ships and depletes are expected to track within 99% of each other. In the second half, beer margins are expected to be 34.5% to 35.5% of operating margins, SG&A should be around 7%, and marketing should be about 10% of net sales, with the third quarter above 11%. Veracruz is now expected to come online in the first part of fiscal year '28, with annualized depreciation of about $75 million, or about 90 basis points of margin headwind. Pricing is expected to be somewhere between 1% to 2%, generally speaking, over the long run, with the company intending to be at the lower end of that range this year; most commodities and currencies are hedged at 90% or over 90%, with diesel fully hedged for the year.Constellation Brands Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Feb 2026 | Feb 2025 | Feb 2024 | Feb 2023 | Feb 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 9.21B | 9.14B | 10.21B | 9.96B | 9.45B | 8.82B |
| Gross Profit | 4.85B | 4.71B | 5.20B | 4.91B | 4.81B | 4.60B |
| EBITDA | 3.25B | 3.15B | 781.30M | 3.08B | 1.17B | 1.00B |
| Net Income | 1.92B | 1.69B | -81.40M | 1.73B | -71.00M | -40.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 22.06B | 21.90B | 21.65B | 25.69B | 24.66B | 25.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 98.50M | 102.40M | 68.10M | 152.40M | 133.50M | 199.40M |
| Total Debt | 10.32B | 11.20B | 12.11B | 12.56B | 12.96B | 10.95B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.18B | 13.51B | 14.52B | 15.63B | 15.93B | 13.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.59B | 8.08B | 6.88B | 9.74B | 8.41B | 11.73B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.84B | 1.79B | 1.94B | 1.51B | 1.72B | 1.68B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.66B | 2.67B | 3.15B | 2.78B | 2.76B | 2.71B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -798.70M | 16.50M | -974.80M | -1.29B | -999.40M | -1.04B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.83B | -2.66B | -2.26B | -1.47B | -1.82B | -1.93B |
Constellation Brands Technical Analysis
Positive
135.01
Price Trends
125.47
Positive
130.45
Positive
140.98
Negative
Market Momentum
4.01
Negative
67.78
Neutral
86.48
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 135.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 124.81, above the 50-day MA of 125.47, and below the 200-day MA of 140.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.48 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STZ.
Constellation Brands Risk Analysis
Constellation Brands disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Constellation Brands reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Constellation Brands Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $161.59B | 13.70 | 12.72% | 1.66% | 6.60% | 31.61% | |
72 Outperform | $45.04B | 14.97 | 18.13% | 4.21% | 4.24% | 19.95% | |
69 Neutral | $22.11B | 11.71 | 23.58% | 3.14% | -4.31% | 62.57% | |
67 Neutral | $13.20B | 18.51 | 17.80% | 3.16% | -0.18% | -13.00% | |
64 Neutral | $51.85B | 29.88 | 15.52% | 2.15% | -3.59% | -26.73% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
57 Neutral | $7.40B | -3.42 | -22.65% | 4.84% | -1.77% | -326.16% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
STZ
Constellation Brands
130.63
0.25
0.19%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
81.37
20.36
33.37%
BF.A
Brown Forman A
29.20
2.09
7.71%
DEO
Diageo
93.07
1.06
1.16%
TAP
Molson Coors
39.45
-3.83
-8.85%
ABEV
Ambev SA
2.87
0.77
36.67%
Constellation Brands Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Constellation Brands Posts Strong Q2 Results, Acquires SpikedAde
Positive
Oct 6, 2026
On October 6, 2026, Constellation Brands reported results for its second fiscal quarter ended August 31, 2026, posting net sales of $2.63 billion, reported EPS of $3.32 and comparable EPS of $3.74, driven by 5% net sales growth in its beer busines...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Brands Establishes New $300 Million Term Loan
Positive
Sep 18, 2026
On September 18, 2026, Constellation Brands entered into a new term loan credit agreement with Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company and other lenders, establishing a delayed draw facility of up to $300 million for general corporate purposes, in...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Brands Announces Early Redemption of 2027 Notes
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
On September 8, 2026, Constellation Brands announced it had delivered notice for the full redemption prior to maturity of all its outstanding 4.350% Senior Notes due 2027. The $600.0 million aggregate principal amount of notes is scheduled to be r...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.