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GRAIL Inc (GRAL)
NASDAQ:GRAL
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GRAIL Inc
(NASDAQ:GRAL)
60Neutral
Positive Factors
Market Position
GRAIL has a first-mover advantage in the multi-cancer early detection (MCED) testing market, driven by its leading generation of clinical data and large addressable market.
Partnerships and Expansion
New strategic partnerships with Quest Diagnostics and TRICARE Health Insurance are expected to expand Grail Inc's reach and grow the market ahead of significant study readouts.
Technology and Innovation
GRAIL's unique technology, protected by robust intellectual property, enables more efficient early cancer detection in asymptomatic individuals compared to other approaches.
Negative Factors
Financial Concerns
Management is making early progress extending the cash runway with ~$850MM currently in hand, but there is potential for ~$400MM in annual burn, which is well above management targets.
Market Penetration
Additional financing will likely be required to build out commercial infrastructure for successful market penetration.
Regulatory Challenges
There are inherent risks associated with broadly commercializing novel technologies such as MCEDs, including an uncertain regulatory and reimbursement pathway.
GRAIL Inc (GRAL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.14B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.92
Revenue Growth34.90%
EPS Growth-37.19%
CountryUS
Employees1,000
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.89
Shares Outstanding35,296,860
10 Day Avg. Volume1,305,825
30 Day Avg. Volume1,203,796
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap-0.08
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.16
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$26.00Price Target Upside-26.14% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
GRAIL Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGRAIL, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on developing technologies for early cancer detection. The company develops Galleri, a screening test for asymptomatic individuals over 50 years of age; and DAC, a diagnostic aid for cancer tests to accelerate diagnostic resolution for patients for whom there is a clinical suspicion of cancer. It is also developing minimal residual disease and other post-diagnostic tests. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Menlo Park, California. GRAIL, Inc. operates as a former subsidiary of Illumina, Inc.
How the Company Makes MoneyGRAIL Inc makes money primarily through the commercialization of its early cancer detection tests. The company generates revenue by selling these diagnostic tests to healthcare providers, hospitals, and clinics. Additionally, GRAIL may engage in partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and other healthcare organizations to expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings. These collaborations can provide additional revenue streams through research and development agreements, licensing, and co-marketing efforts. The company's revenue is also influenced by its ability to navigate regulatory environments and secure market access for its innovative diagnostic solutions.
GRAIL Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
GRAIL Inc. shows strong revenue growth but continues to face profitability challenges with negative margins. A robust equity position and low leverage provide financial stability, yet cash flow remains a concern due to negative free cash flow and reliance on external financing.Income Statement
GRAIL Inc. has shown substantial revenue growth with a 34.89% increase from 2023 to 2024. However, the company continues to operate at a loss with a negative gross profit margin of -62.12% and a net profit margin of -161.42% in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating ongoing operational challenges.58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
GRAIL Inc. maintains a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 83.92%. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.03, signifying limited leverage. However, the return on equity is negative due to ongoing losses. The company's high stockholders' equity relative to total assets suggests financial stability but profitability remains a concern.72
Positive
Cash Flow
The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.28, indicating cash flow challenges. Free cash flow has improved slightly, but remains negative at -$582.36 million. The company raised $1.24 billion in financing activities, aiding liquidity but highlighting reliance on external funding.65
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 125.59M | 93.11M | 55.55M | 0.00 | 0.00 | Gross Profit |
| -78.02M | -95.61M | -116.45M | 0.00 | -10.31M | EBIT |
| -2.19B | -1.52B | -742.46M | -316.30M | -253.46M | EBITDA |
| -610.17M | -620.90M | -575.57M | -308.73M | -243.14M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -2.03B | -1.47B | -5.40B | -312.16M | -244.85M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 763.47M | 97.29M | 241.60M | 583.48M | 544.34M | Total Assets |
| 2.98B | 3.91B | 5.60B | 706.30M | 635.52M | Total Debt |
| 68.14M | 84.41M | 96.01M | 57.54M | 42.04M | Net Debt |
| -146.09M | -12.88M | -145.59M | -112.66M | -101.15M | Total Liabilities |
| 479.90M | 267.63M | 955.94M | 144.46M | 84.99M | Stockholders Equity |
| 2.50B | 3.65B | 4.65B | 561.84M | 550.53M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -582.36M | -608.69M | -584.17M | -243.91M | -249.13M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -577.16M | -595.80M | -561.31M | -232.00M | -245.79M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -551.01M | -12.89M | -22.86M | -12.79M | 133.04M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 1.24B | 463.77M | 604.82M | 275.11M | 160.33M |
GRAIL Inc Technical Analysis
Positive
35.20
Price Trends
30.40
Positive
29.22
Positive
22.22
Positive
Market Momentum
1.76
Negative
56.65
Neutral
49.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.06, above the 50-day MA of 30.40, and above the 200-day MA of 22.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GRAL.
GRAIL Inc Risk Analysis
GRAIL Inc disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GRAIL Inc reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GRAIL Inc Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $19.66B | 22.44 | 13.35% | 1.72% | 9.38% | 6.43% | |
75 Outperform | $9.11B | 113.51 | 2.67% | ― | 3.31% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $21.23B | ― | -18.66% | ― | 51.50% | 53.23% | |
60 Neutral | $1.14B | ― | -65.92% | ― | 34.90% | -37.19% | |
56 Neutral | $4.46B | 10.72 | -18.54% | 5.13% | 17.31% | -65.90% | |
52 Neutral | $5.80B | ― | -4584.47% | ― | 28.20% | 13.87% | |
29 Underperform | $50.39M | ― | 138.92% | ― | 59.10% | 37.59% |
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GRAL
GRAIL Inc
35.20
20.90
146.15%
QGEN
Qiagen
41.86
-2.46
-5.55%
DGX
Quest Diagnostics
176.96
38.98
28.25%
VNRX
VolitionRX
0.50
-0.38
-43.18%
NTRA
Natera
151.95
48.62
47.05%
GH
Guardant Health
41.72
17.72
73.83%
GRAIL Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 20, 2025
(Q4-2024)
| % Change Since: -26.30%|
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant growth in Galleri revenue, improvements in cost efficiency, and strategic partnerships, while also noting a substantial net loss for the full year and a decrease in development services revenue. The company is focused on reducing cash burn and has a strong cash position. Overall, the positive aspects outweigh the negatives.Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
U.S. Galleri Revenue Growth
U.S. Galleri revenue grew by 45% year-over-year, with more than 137,000 Galleri tests sold.
Financial Performance
Fourth quarter revenue was $38.3 million, up 26% from Q4 2023. Full-year revenue was $125.6 million, up 35% from 2023.
Cost Efficiency Improvements
The company implemented a new version of the Galleri test, reducing sequencing costs and automating testing workflows, leading to expanded lab capacity.
Partnerships and Coverage
Integration with Quest Diagnostics allows easier test ordering, and TRICARE added Galleri to its list of approved lab-developed tests for certain patients.
Net Loss Improvement
Net loss for the fourth quarter improved by 48% compared to Q4 2023.
Cash Burn Reduction
Projected cash burn for 2025 is expected to decrease by more than 40% compared to 2024.
Negative Updates
Net Loss for Full Year
Net loss for the full year 2024 was $2 billion, an increase of 38% compared to 2023, driven by goodwill and intangible asset impairments.
Decrease in Development Services Revenue
Development services revenue was $17 million for the full year, a decrease of 6% from 2023.
Company Guidance
During the GRAIL Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance on various financial metrics and strategic initiatives. The call highlighted a significant restructure intended to extend the capital runway into 2028, with a focus on achieving key milestones such as the completion of the modular PMA submission for FDA approval of the Galleri test. GRAIL reported a 45% year-over-year growth in U.S. Galleri revenue, with over 137,000 tests sold, contributing to a total revenue of $38.3 million for Q4, up 26% from the previous year. The company's non-GAAP adjusted gross profit for the fourth quarter increased by 17% to $17.9 million, while the adjusted EBITDA improved by 32% to negative $84 million. For the full year, GRAIL's revenue reached $125.6 million, marking a 35% increase from 2023, with a screening revenue of $108.6 million, up 45% year-over-year. The call also emphasized the rollout of an enhanced version of Galleri to support testing at scale and the addition of the Galleri test to TRICARE's approved lab-developed tests list. GRAIL's cash burn for 2025 is projected to decrease by over 40%, aiming for no more than $320 million, with a strong cash position of $766.8 million at the end of 2024.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.