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GRAIL Inc
(NASDAQ:GRAL)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$145.00
▲(82.18% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/07/26
The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance (negative gross profit and substantial ongoing cash burn despite rapid revenue growth) and limited valuation support (negative P/E, no dividend). Offsetting these are strong technical momentum (price well above major moving averages with positive MACD) and a constructive earnings call highlighting growing test volumes, improving adjusted gross profit, substantial cash runway, and a defined regulatory timeline—tempered by continued losses, ASP pressure, and regulatory/clinical execution risks.
Positive Factors
Rapid revenue and test-volume growth
Strong growth in both revenue and test volume indicates increasing customer adoption of Galleri and expanding commercial reach. Continued volume gains can improve operating leverage, support broader provider engagement, and strengthen the company’s position in the emerging MCED screening market.
Negative Factors
Large losses and negative gross profit
GRAIL remains far from profitability despite strong revenue growth, with negative gross profit and operating losses that are very large relative to sales. This weak cost structure may require prolonged investment and makes future earnings dependent on substantial margin improvement and scale.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rapid revenue and test-volume growth
Strong growth in both revenue and test volume indicates increasing customer adoption of Galleri and expanding commercial reach. Continued volume gains can improve operating leverage, support broader provider engagement, and strengthen the company’s position in the emerging MCED screening market.
Read all positive factors
GRAIL Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
How much revenue comes from each region (U.S., Europe, rest of world), revealing where Galleri adoption, regulatory approvals and payer reimbursement are driving growth. Heavy concentration in one geography increases exposure to local policy or reimbursement shifts, while broader geographic traction signals a larger commercial runway and reduced single-market risk.
How much revenue comes from each region (U.S., Europe, rest of world), revealing where Galleri adoption, regulatory approvals and payer reimbursement are driving growth. Heavy concentration in one geography increases exposure to local policy or reimbursement shifts, while broader geographic traction signals a larger commercial runway and reduced single-market risk.
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The Fly
The FlyGRAIL Inc (GRAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.14B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.25M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.66
Revenue Growth23.07%
EPS Growth24.60%
CountryUS
Employees910
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-9.75
Shares Outstanding44,666,233
10 Day Avg. Volume1,251,393
30 Day Avg. Volume1,254,059
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)21.37
P/FCF Ratio-10.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.35
Enterprise Value/Revenue13.15
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-121.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$133.67Price Target Upside67.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)-9.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$180.80M
GRAIL Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GRAIL, Inc., a commercial-stage healthcare company, provides multi-cancer early detection testing and services in the United States and internationally. It offers Galleri, a cancer screening test for asymptomatic individuals over 50 years of age; ...
How the Company Makes Money
GRAIL primarily generates revenue by selling its Galleri blood test and related diagnostic services, typically on a per-test basis through laboratory testing workflows (sample collection, processing, analysis, and reporting). Revenue is recognized...
GRAIL Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive commercial and clinical momentum: strong year-over-year revenue and volume growth, meaningful gross profit improvement, substantial cash including a $110M Samsung strategic investment, and a robust, differentiated clinical evidence base with low false positive rate and high PPV. Key execution items — a completed PMA submission, anticipated FDA advisory committee and sales force expansion — support the company’s pathway to broader access. Offsetting these positives are continued large operating losses and a widened adjusted EBITDA shortfall, the NHS primary endpoint miss, pricing/ASP pressure from channel mix and competitive noise, and timing uncertainty around the FDA advisory committee and U.K. decision-making. Taken together, the highlights (growth, cash runway, unique clinical validation and commercialization readiness) outweigh the lowlights, though execution and regulatory timing risks remain significant.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue and Volume Growth
Total revenue of $44.7M in Q2 2026, up 26% year-over-year; screening revenue $42.6M, up 24% YoY. Q2 Galleri test volume >61,000, a 35% YoY increase. First half 2026 Galleri revenue grew ~30% YoY to >$80M and volume grew ~42% YoY to >117,000 tests.
Negative Updates
Large Ongoing Losses and Widening Adjusted EBITDA Loss
Net loss of $110.2M in Q2 (a 3% improvement YoY) but non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA loss widened to -$90.3M, an increase in loss of $11.9M or 15% YoY, signaling continued high operating investment and negative operating cash flow contribution.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue and Volume Growth
Total revenue of $44.7M in Q2 2026, up 26% year-over-year; screening revenue $42.6M, up 24% YoY. Q2 Galleri test volume >61,000, a 35% YoY increase. First half 2026 Galleri revenue grew ~30% YoY to >$80M and volume grew ~42% YoY to >117,000 tests.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated clear near-term regulatory and commercial guidance: it expects the FDA to convene an advisory committee in the fall and continues to target potential approval in the first part of 2027, after which CMS and payers would be more likely to define coverage; the PMA submitted focuses on roughly 25,000 PATHFINDER 2 participants (1-year follow-up) plus the NHS-Galleri prevalent round. Financial and commercial metrics for Q2 were strong — >61,000 Galleri tests sold (+35% YoY), screening revenue $42.6M (+24% YoY), total revenue $44.7M (+26% YoY), adjusted gross profit $21.6M (+34% YoY), adjusted EBITDA loss $(90.3)M (loss widened 15% YoY), net loss $(110.2)M (down 3% YoY), H1 test volume >117,000 (+42% YoY) and H1 revenue >$80M (+30% YoY) — and cash stood at $861.6M including a $110M Samsung strategic investment closed in June. Clinical-performance metrics highlighted as key to the regulatory case included a false positive rate <0.5% (3x–6x fewer false positives than competitors), PPVs of ~50%–60%, cancer detection rate increases of 4x–6.5% when added to standard of care, ~40%–50% of detected cancers at stages 1–2 (~70% at stages 1–3), PATHFINDER‑2 showing ~60% of cancers detected by screening, and NHS‑Galleri detecting 366 Stage I–II cancers versus 290 found by the U.K. screening program control arm. Operationally the field sales expansion was substantially complete at end of Q2 (new hires trained and active), self‑pay remains ~70% of volume, ~1,000 new ordering providers were added in Q2, electronic integrations (Quest/Athena) are scaling, and an Illumina royalty (~7%) will resume late Q4 with minimal Q4 impact.GRAIL Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 165.26M | 147.17M | 125.59M | 93.11M | 55.55M | 14.61M |
| Gross Profit | -17.89M | -62.57M | -78.02M | -95.61M | -116.45M | -100.00M |
| EBITDA | -374.10M | -378.16M | -610.17M | -638.22M | -587.70M | -1.21B |
| Net Income | -391.59M | -408.35M | -2.03B | -1.47B | -5.40B | -1.25B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.84B | 2.92B | 2.98B | 4.56B | 5.60B | 9.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 861.61M | 904.43M | 763.47M | 97.29M | 241.60M | 221.16M |
| Total Debt | 91.31M | 98.01M | 68.14M | 84.41M | 96.01M | 110.56M |
| Total Liabilities | 301.03M | 344.15M | 479.90M | 910.74M | 955.94M | 307.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.54B | 2.58B | 2.50B | 3.65B | 4.65B | 9.43B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -295.25M | -299.01M | -582.36M | -608.69M | -584.17M | -758.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -294.75M | -299.01M | -577.16M | -595.80M | -561.31M | -688.13M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -310.04M | -85.05M | -551.01M | -12.89M | -22.86M | 344.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 536.93M | 423.32M | 1.24B | 463.77M | 604.82M | 394.74M |
GRAIL Inc Technical Analysis
Positive
79.59
Price Trends
93.49
Positive
80.14
Positive
75.17
Positive
Market Momentum
14.81
Positive
64.70
Neutral
24.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 79.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 120.44, below the 50-day MA of 93.49, and above the 200-day MA of 75.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 14.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GRAL.
GRAIL Inc Risk Analysis
GRAIL Inc disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GRAIL Inc reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GRAIL Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $6.14B | -14.09 | -15.88% | ― | 23.07% | 24.60% | |
61 Neutral | $271.16M | -8.11 | -788.19% | ― | 34.46% | 43.48% | |
60 Neutral | $21.85B | -46.64 | 211.46% | ― | 42.74% | -4.60% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
55 Neutral | $157.77M | -1.56 | -12.97% | ― | -3.65% | 51.30% | |
50 Neutral | $1.69B | -14.50 | -46.47% | ― | -13.26% | 14.26% |
* General Sector Average
GRAL
GRAIL Inc
137.37
68.08
98.25%
GH
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162.79
100.23
160.21%
PSNL
Personalis
15.80
7.58
92.21%
BNR
Burning Rock Biotech
15.00
6.51
76.68%
BDSX
Biodesix
25.70
17.91
229.91%
FRNM
Freenome Inc
13.22
2.41
22.29%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.