Natera (NTRA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $27.24B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.16
• Revenue Growth: 38.17%
• EPS Growth: -28.77%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,424
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.64
• Shares Outstanding: 137,248,110
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,364,300
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,217,788
• PEG Ratio: 1.74
• Price to Book (P/B): 16.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 11.63
• P/FCF Ratio: 285.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.00
• 1Y Price Target: $225.54
• Price Target Upside: 13.01% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): -2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.09B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $217.00 ▲(8.73% Upside)

Natera's overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and positive momentum, as highlighted in the earnings call and technical analysis. However, ongoing profitability challenges and a negative P/E ratio weigh on the valuation score. The company's strategic expansions and improved cash flow generation are promising, but increased operational expenses and early cancer detection challenges present risks.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong demand for Natera's products, enhancing its market position and supporting future expansion.

Product Expansion

Expanding product offerings can drive revenue growth and strengthen competitive advantage by meeting diverse customer needs.

Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow generation enhances financial flexibility, allowing for reinvestment in growth opportunities and debt management.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing profitability issues may limit the company's ability to reinvest in growth and could affect long-term financial stability.

Rising Operational Expenses

Higher operational expenses can pressure margins and reduce profitability, impacting the company's financial health over time.

Early Cancer Detection Challenges

Uncertainty in early cancer detection commercialization could hinder growth in a critical strategic area, affecting future revenue streams.

Natera Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, develops and commercializes molecular testing services worldwide. It offers Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test that screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus with a blood draw from the mother, as well as twin pregnancies for zygosity; Vistara, a single-gene mutations screening test to identify single-gene disorder; Horizon carrier screening to determine carrier status for various genetic diseases; and Spectrum to identify chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions during an in vitro fertilization cycle. The company also provides Anora miscarriage test products to analyze fetal chromosomes to understand the cause of miscarriage; and non-invasive paternity testing products to determine paternity by gestation using a blood draw from the pregnant mother and alleged father. In addition, it offers Constellation, a cloud-based software product that enables laboratory customers to gain access through the cloud to the company's algorithms and bioinformatics in order to validate and launch tests; Signatera, a circulating tumor DNA technology that screen for a generic set of mutations independent of an individual's tumor; and Prospera used to assess organ transplant rejection. The company offers products through its direct sales force, as well as through a network of approximately 100 laboratory and distribution partners. It has a partnership agreement with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize NGS-based genetic testing assays; and Foundation Medicine, Inc. to develop and commercialize personalized circulating tumor DNA monitoring assays. The company was formerly known as Gene Security Network, Inc. and changed its name to Natera, Inc. in 2012. Natera, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is based in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Natera generates revenue primarily through its genetic testing services. The key revenue streams include payments for tests performed in the reproductive health sector, such as NIPT and carrier screening, as well as oncology tests that detect genetic mutations related to cancer. The company also earns revenue from its organ transplantation services, which help assess compatibility between donors and recipients. Natera benefits from partnerships with healthcare providers, laboratories, and insurance companies that facilitate access to its testing services and contribute to patient referrals. Additionally, Natera invests in research and development to expand its test offerings, which can lead to increased revenue opportunities through new product launches and market expansion.

Natera Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Natera is demonstrating strong revenue growth and improving operational efficiency, as seen in the rising gross profit margin. However, the company continues to face profitability challenges, with negative net income and EBIT margins. The balance sheet shows a healthy equity position with low leverage, but profitability remains a concern with negative ROE. Cash flow metrics indicate positive trends, with significant growth in free cash flow, suggesting potential for future profitability improvements.

Income Statement

Natera has shown consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 7.28%. The gross profit margin has improved to 62.91% in the TTM, indicating strong operational efficiency. However, the company is still facing challenges in profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins, which are -12.89% and -12.57% respectively. The improvement in EBITDA margin to -11.83% suggests some progress in reducing operational losses.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.15, reflecting a relatively low level of leverage. However, the return on equity remains negative at -22.21%, indicating ongoing challenges in generating profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 70.93%, showing a strong equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Natera's free cash flow has grown by 22.73% in the TTM, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.49 suggests that the company is generating cash from operations, though not yet sufficient to cover net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.56 highlights progress in aligning cash flow with profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.12B	1.70B	1.08B	820.22M	625.49M	391.00M
Gross Profit	1.35B	1.02B	492.74M	363.97M	307.07M	187.38M
EBITDA	-280.06M	-148.08M	-383.28M	-507.03M	-451.54M	-205.95M
Net Income	-309.19M	-190.43M	-434.80M	-547.80M	-471.72M	-229.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.82B	1.66B	1.44B	1.39B	1.24B	932.15M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.04B	968.28M	878.98M	898.39M	914.28M	737.27M
Total Debt	184.72M	187.12M	441.99M	446.22M	397.23M	281.09M
Total Liabilities	569.29M	465.31M	676.37M	688.73M	583.18M	445.92M
Stockholders Equity	1.25B	1.20B	765.33M	705.74M	653.30M	486.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	69.08M	69.24M	-286.15M	-479.20M	-376.27M	-202.12M
Operating Cash Flow	134.91M	135.66M	-246.96M	-431.50M	-335.24M	-182.51M
Investing Cash Flow	-51.83M	137.62M	168.50M	330.34M	-205.19M	-331.46M
Financing Cash Flow	24.09M	30.20M	254.46M	482.64M	576.19M	500.85M

Natera Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 199.57
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 199.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 189.95, above the 50-day MA of 177.75, and above the 200-day MA of 161.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTRA.

Natera Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ILMN	73 Outperform	$18.71B	27.13	31.20%	―	-2.39%	―
NTRA	69 Neutral	$27.24B	―	-29.02%	―	38.17%	-28.77%
EXAS	62 Neutral	$13.19B	―	-34.54%	―	14.47%	-353.69%
FLGT	60 Neutral	$697.27M	―	-4.54%	―	4.31%	69.57%
GH	54 Neutral	$11.98B	―	―	―	30.38%	24.17%
NEO	53 Neutral	$1.35B	―	-12.99%	―	10.10%	-44.29%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Natera Corporate Events

Natera Inc. Reports Strong Revenue Growth in Q3 2025

Natera Inc. is a global leader in cell-free DNA and precision medicine, focusing on oncology, women’s health, and organ health, with a commitment to integrating personalized genetic testing into standard healthcare practices. In its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, Natera announced a significant revenue increase to $592.2 million, marking a 34.7% rise from the previous year, driven by a 35.3% growth in product revenues. The company also processed 893,600 tests, a 15.2% increase from the same quarter in 2024, with oncology tests showing a notable 53.9% growth. Natera’s gross margin improved to 64.9%, up from 61.8% the previous year, reflecting higher revenues and cost efficiencies. Despite these gains, the company reported a net loss of $87.5 million, or $0.64 per share, compared to a $31.6 million loss in the same period last year. Looking ahead, Natera has raised its 2025 annual revenue guidance, anticipating total revenues between $2.18 billion and $2.26 billion, and continues to focus on innovation and expanding its product offerings.

Natera Inc.’s New Prenatal Test Study: A Potential Game-Changer in Genetic Screening

Study Overview: Natera Inc. is conducting a study titled ‘EXpanding Prenatal Cell Free DNA Screening Across moNogenic Disorders (EXPAND).’ The study aims to develop and validate a single-gene Non-Invasive Prenatal Test (sgNIPT) for conditions like cystic fibrosis, spinal muscular atrophy, and thalassemias. This test could provide crucial information about potential genetic disorders in unborn children, especially when traditional reproductive partner screening is unavailable.

Natera’s New Study: A Potential Game-Changer in Breast Cancer Treatment

Natera Inc. has initiated a new clinical study titled ‘Signatera-Guided CDK4/6 Inhibitor Therapy in Breast Cancer.’ The study aims to evaluate the efficacy and safety of using the Signatera Genome test to guide the initiation of CDK4/6 inhibitor therapy in patients with intermediate-risk HR+/HER2- early-stage breast cancer. This approach seeks to optimize treatment timing based on ctDNA test results, potentially reducing unnecessary treatments while maintaining efficacy compared to historical controls.

Natera’s FIND-CRC Study: A Potential Game-Changer in Colorectal Cancer Screening

The FIND-CRC study, officially titled ‘Evaluation of the Natera Colorectal Cancer Screening Test in an Average Risk Population,’ aims to assess the clinical performance of Natera’s CRC Screening Test. The study focuses on collecting samples and data from individuals at average risk of developing colorectal cancer, providing valuable insights into the test’s effectiveness.

Natera Inc.’s Innovative Approach to Heart Transplant Rejection Monitoring: A Study Update

Study Overview: Natera Inc. is conducting a study titled A Comparative Effectiveness Study in Heart Transplant Patients of Rejection Surveillance With Cell-free DNA Versus Endomyocardial Biopsy (ACES-EMB). The primary objective is to compare the effectiveness of the Prospera cell-free DNA test against the traditional endomyocardial biopsy (EMB) in monitoring heart transplant rejection. This study is significant as it could potentially lead to less invasive monitoring methods for heart transplant patients.

Natera’s PROCEED-CRC Study: A Step Forward in Early Cancer Detection

Study Overview: The PROCEED-CRC study, officially titled ‘Prospective Collection of Samples to Enable the Development of Natera Screening Assay for Early Cancer Detection,’ aims to collect blood samples from individuals at average risk of colorectal cancer. This study is significant as it seeks to develop a blood-based screening test for early cancer detection, potentially transforming how colorectal cancer is diagnosed.

Natera Inc. Reports Strong Growth and Strategic Advances

Natera Inc. Reports Strong Quarter with Record Revenue Growth and Strategic Advancements

Natera Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Growth

Natera, Inc. is a global leader in cell-free DNA and genetic testing, focusing on oncology, women’s health, and organ health, with operations in ISO 13485-certified and CAP-accredited laboratories in Austin, Texas, and San Carlos, California.