Want to see NTRA full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Natera
(NASDAQ:NTRA)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$462.00
▲(37.21% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/06/26
Overall score reflects strong operating momentum and an improving financial trajectory (positive cash flow, strong gross margin, low leverage) supported by a bullish technical trend and a positive earnings-call reset (raised revenue guidance and major milestones). The main constraint is valuation quality tied to ongoing unprofitability (negative P/E) and remaining profitability/FCF consistency risks.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue and volume growth
Rapid revenue growth, record test volumes, and a raised annual outlook indicate broadening clinical adoption across Natera’s businesses. Sustained volume expansion can improve laboratory utilization, strengthen payer and clinician relationships, and support durable operating leverage as newer products mature.
Negative Factors
Profitability remains unestablished
Natera has achieved substantial revenue scale and improved gross margins, but it still does not consistently convert that scale into operating earnings. Continued EBIT losses can constrain reinvestment capacity and leave results more sensitive to reimbursement, product mix, and spending decisions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue and volume growth
Rapid revenue growth, record test volumes, and a raised annual outlook indicate broadening clinical adoption across Natera’s businesses. Sustained volume expansion can improve laboratory utilization, strengthen payer and clinician relationships, and support durable operating leverage as newer products mature.
Read all positive factors
Natera (NTRA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$57.34B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.60M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth37.82%
EPS Growth28.02%
CountryUS
Employees6,138
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.36
Shares Outstanding144,144,170
10 Day Avg. Volume2,037,230
30 Day Avg. Volume1,598,912
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio230.60
Price to Book (P/B)18.29
Price to Sales (P/S)13.58
P/FCF Ratio287.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.66
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit21.52
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-212.86
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$387.45Price Target Upside15.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.91B
Natera Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Natera, Inc. is a diagnostics company focused on developing and commercializing a wide array of molecular testing services globally. Its portfolio includes several key offerings: Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test (NIPT) that screens for chrom...
How the Company Makes Money
Natera makes money primarily by performing laboratory-developed genetic and molecular diagnostic tests and recognizing revenue when it gets paid (or expects to be paid) for those tests by third-party payers and, in some cases, by patients or other...
Natera Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum and multiple high‑impact milestones (record volumes, robust revenue growth, major regulatory approvals, new guideline support, improved ASPs and margins, raised guidance, and a deep prospective clinical program). These positives are partially offset by near-term margin pressure from new product ramps, substantial investment in early cancer detection that depresses near-term profitability, reliance on future coverage actions for major ASP upside, and some one-time/variable SG&A items. Overall, the balance of evidence points to accelerating commercialization and durable long‑term opportunity despite expected short‑term investment and mix effects.Positive Updates
Record Test Volume
Processed approximately 1.044 million tests in Q2 FY26, exceeding 1 million units and setting a new company record with broad volume strength across businesses.
Negative Updates
Short-Term COGS Pressure from New Product Ramp
Cost of goods sold increased slightly in Q2 due to volume uptick from recently launched products (fetal focus, Latitude, Signatera genome) that are not yet optimized for COGS; these launches constrained further near-term margin expansion.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Test Volume
Processed approximately 1.044 million tests in Q2 FY26, exceeding 1 million units and setting a new company record with broad volume strength across businesses.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company raised its 2026 revenue guide to $2.85–$2.91 billion (a $100M midpoint raise), which implies roughly 31% revenue growth for the year ex-true-ups; Q2 results that supported the reset included $753M revenue (+38% YoY, ~40% ex-true-ups), ~1.044M tests processed, 283k clinical MRD units (+~56% YoY, +34k sequential), $52M of revenue true-ups, and positive cash inflow with DSO improving to ~57 days (down ~4 days). Management reported gross margin of ~65% (sequential ex-true-ups improvement ~50 bps) while reiterating a long‑term >70% gross margin target, Signatera ASPs at about $12.75 today (long‑term mature ASP target ~$2,000), potential near‑term ASP upside of roughly $25 and an estimated $150–$200 ASP lift from pending MolDx submissions, R&D spend including ~ $100M this year for early cancer detection, and a plan to hold OpEx guidance steady while expecting stronger H2 volumes and continued cash generation for the year.Natera Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.71B | 2.31B | 1.70B | 1.08B | 820.22M | 625.49M |
| Gross Profit | 1.77B | 1.50B | 1.02B | 492.74M | 363.97M | 307.07M |
| EBITDA | -178.71M | -220.54M | -148.08M | -397.80M | -520.80M | -451.54M |
| Net Income | -192.35M | -208.16M | -190.43M | -434.80M | -547.80M | -471.72M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.66B | 2.51B | 1.66B | 1.44B | 1.39B | 1.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.09B | 1.08B | 968.28M | 878.98M | 898.39M | 914.28M |
| Total Debt | 238.49M | 214.38M | 187.12M | 441.99M | 446.22M | 397.23M |
| Total Liabilities | 836.00M | 795.62M | 465.31M | 676.37M | 688.73M | 583.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.82B | 1.71B | 1.20B | 765.33M | 705.74M | 653.30M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 71.70M | 109.11M | 69.24M | -286.15M | -479.20M | -376.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 228.24M | 215.30M | 135.66M | -246.96M | -431.50M | -335.24M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -187.06M | -132.21M | 137.62M | 168.50M | 330.34M | -205.19M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 50.30M | 47.46M | 30.20M | 254.46M | 482.64M | 576.19M |
Natera Technical Analysis
Positive
336.71
Price Trends
348.02
Positive
296.37
Positive
254.20
Positive
Market Momentum
16.85
Positive
59.38
Neutral
28.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 336.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 393.75, below the 50-day MA of 348.02, and above the 200-day MA of 254.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 16.85 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTRA.
Natera Risk Analysis
Natera disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Natera reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Natera Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $3.27B | 29.33 | 32.81% | ― | 34.41% | 90.73% | |
72 Outperform | $4.39B | 134.86 | 7.87% | ― | 90.12% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $3.54B | 30.57 | 8.64% | ― | 17.28% | 323.64% | |
67 Neutral | $57.34B | -292.48 | -11.73% | ― | 37.82% | 28.02% | |
60 Neutral | $21.85B | -46.64 | 211.46% | ― | 42.74% | -4.60% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
46 Neutral | $401.73M | -3.52 | -32.59% | 13.45% | -3.16% | 72.02% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NTRA
Natera
397.77
223.60
128.38%
MYGN
Myriad Genetics
4.20
-3.64
-46.43%
VCYT
Veracyte
44.02
9.93
29.13%
CDNA
CareDx
63.12
48.59
334.41%
GH
Guardant Health
162.79
101.06
163.71%
BLLN
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A
93.07
-15.87
-14.57%
Natera Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Natera Announces Board Resignation Amid Governance Transition
Neutral
Jul 6, 2026
On July 1, 2026, Natera director Monica Bertagnolli informed the company’s Board that she would resign from the Board and its committees, effective the same day, following her appointment to a new role at the National Academy of Medicine. Na...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.