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Natera
(NASDAQ:NTRA)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$288.00
▼(-14.47% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial trajectory (positive operating cash flow/free cash flow, low leverage, and narrowing losses) and a strong earnings call featuring raised revenue guidance and multiple commercialization/reimbursement milestones. Offsetting these positives are weak valuation signals due to ongoing unprofitability (negative P/E, no dividend) and only moderate/neutral near-term technical momentum.
Positive Factors
Positive Cash Generation
Natera has shifted to positive operating and free cash flow, a durable structural improvement that funds operations, clinical trials, and commercialization without immediate reliance on capital markets. This strengthens financial flexibility and reduces dilution pressure while supporting multi-quarter investments.
Negative Factors
Ongoing Unprofitability
Despite revenue scale and margin progress, the business is still loss‑making at the operating level. Persistent negative operating margins mean the firm must convert top‑line growth into sustained operating earnings to deliver durable returns and to relieve reliance on external capital or sustained tight cost control.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Positive Cash Generation
Natera has shifted to positive operating and free cash flow, a durable structural improvement that funds operations, clinical trials, and commercialization without immediate reliance on capital markets. This strengthens financial flexibility and reduces dilution pressure while supporting multi-quarter investments.
Read all positive factors
Natera (NTRA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$48.53B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth37.82%
EPS Growth28.02%
CountryUS
Employees6,138
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.36
Shares Outstanding144,144,170
10 Day Avg. Volume924,721
30 Day Avg. Volume1,435,349
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio230.60
Price to Book (P/B)18.29
Price to Sales (P/S)13.58
P/FCF Ratio287.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$335.29Price Target Upside-0.42% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering21
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.90B
Natera Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Natera, Inc. is a diagnostics company focused on developing and commercializing a wide array of molecular testing services globally. Its portfolio includes several key offerings: Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test (NIPT) that screens for chrom...
How the Company Makes Money
Natera makes money primarily by performing genetic and molecular diagnostic tests and recognizing revenue when those tests are delivered and reported. Key revenue streams include: (1) Oncology testing revenue, largely from Signatera, a personalize...
Natera Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum and multiple high‑impact milestones (record volumes, robust revenue growth, major regulatory approvals, new guideline support, improved ASPs and margins, raised guidance, and a deep prospective clinical program). These positives are partially offset by near-term margin pressure from new product ramps, substantial investment in early cancer detection that depresses near-term profitability, reliance on future coverage actions for major ASP upside, and some one-time/variable SG&A items. Overall, the balance of evidence points to accelerating commercialization and durable long‑term opportunity despite expected short‑term investment and mix effects.Positive Updates
Record Test Volume
Processed approximately 1.044 million tests in Q2 FY26, exceeding 1 million units and setting a new company record with broad volume strength across businesses.
Negative Updates
Short-Term COGS Pressure from New Product Ramp
Cost of goods sold increased slightly in Q2 due to volume uptick from recently launched products (fetal focus, Latitude, Signatera genome) that are not yet optimized for COGS; these launches constrained further near-term margin expansion.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Test Volume
Processed approximately 1.044 million tests in Q2 FY26, exceeding 1 million units and setting a new company record with broad volume strength across businesses.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company raised its 2026 revenue guide to $2.85–$2.91 billion (a $100M midpoint raise), which implies roughly 31% revenue growth for the year ex-true-ups; Q2 results that supported the reset included $753M revenue (+38% YoY, ~40% ex-true-ups), ~1.044M tests processed, 283k clinical MRD units (+~56% YoY, +34k sequential), $52M of revenue true-ups, and positive cash inflow with DSO improving to ~57 days (down ~4 days). Management reported gross margin of ~65% (sequential ex-true-ups improvement ~50 bps) while reiterating a long‑term >70% gross margin target, Signatera ASPs at about $12.75 today (long‑term mature ASP target ~$2,000), potential near‑term ASP upside of roughly $25 and an estimated $150–$200 ASP lift from pending MolDx submissions, R&D spend including ~ $100M this year for early cancer detection, and a plan to hold OpEx guidance steady while expecting stronger H2 volumes and continued cash generation for the year.Natera Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.71B | 2.31B | 1.70B | 1.08B | 820.22M | 625.49M |
| Gross Profit | 1.77B | 1.50B | 1.02B | 492.74M | 363.97M | 307.07M |
| EBITDA | -179.14M | -220.54M | -148.08M | -383.28M | -507.03M | -451.54M |
| Net Income | -192.35M | -208.16M | -190.43M | -434.80M | -547.80M | -471.72M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.66B | 2.51B | 1.66B | 1.44B | 1.39B | 1.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.09B | 1.08B | 968.28M | 878.98M | 898.39M | 914.28M |
| Total Debt | 238.49M | 214.38M | 187.12M | 441.99M | 446.22M | 397.23M |
| Total Liabilities | 836.00M | 795.62M | 465.31M | 676.37M | 688.73M | 583.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.82B | 1.71B | 1.20B | 765.33M | 705.74M | 653.30M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 71.70M | 109.11M | 69.24M | -286.15M | -479.20M | -376.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 228.24M | 215.30M | 135.66M | -246.96M | -431.50M | -335.24M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -187.06M | -132.21M | 137.62M | 168.50M | 330.34M | -205.19M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 50.30M | 47.46M | 30.20M | 254.46M | 482.64M | 576.19M |
Natera Technical Analysis
Positive
336.71
Price Trends
279.74
Positive
243.28
Positive
231.37
Positive
Market Momentum
17.71
Negative
72.25
Negative
90.43
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 336.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 306.18, above the 50-day MA of 279.74, and above the 200-day MA of 231.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 17.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.25 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.43 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTRA.
Natera Risk Analysis
Natera disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Natera reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Natera Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $33.97B | 41.56 | 31.08% | ― | 4.97% | -31.78% | |
67 Neutral | $48.53B | -248.86 | -11.73% | ― | 37.82% | 28.02% | |
60 Neutral | $2.16B | -8.76 | -6.31% | ― | 11.19% | 50.58% | |
60 Neutral | $22.13B | -48.97 | 211.46% | ― | 42.74% | -4.60% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $548.93M | -7.02 | -7.87% | ― | 6.83% | -69.59% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NTRA
Natera
338.70
170.82
101.75%
ILMN
Illumina
227.69
128.52
129.60%
NEO
NeoGenomics
18.64
11.43
158.53%
FLGT
Fulgent Genetics
19.95
-2.08
-9.44%
GH
Guardant Health
168.52
104.05
161.39%
Natera Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Natera Announces Board Resignation Amid Governance Transition
Neutral
Jul 6, 2026
On July 1, 2026, Natera director Monica Bertagnolli informed the company’s Board that she would resign from the Board and its committees, effective the same day, following her appointment to a new role at the National Academy of Medicine. Na...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Natera Shareholders Approve Equity Plan and Governance Proposals
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Natera, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where investors approved an amendment to the company’s 2015 Equity Incentive Plan, increasing the pool of shares available for equity awards by 3.2 million common shares...
Executive/Board Changes
Natera Expands Board, Appoints Thomas Lynch as Director
Neutral
Jun 5, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Natera’s board of directors expanded from eleven to twelve members and appointed Thomas Lynch as a Class I independent director, with a term running through the 2028 annual meeting of stockholders. The board also named Lynch...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.