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Galp Energia SGPS SA
(OTC:GLPEY)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
â–²(15.70% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/29/26
Overall score reflects solid underlying financial performance and strong free cash flow tempered by normalized margins and meaningful leverage, plus a positive earnings call with upgraded guidance and higher dividends/buybacks. Technicals and valuation are more neutral, with the stock sitting near key moving averages and a P/E that is not especially cheap for a cyclical business.
Positive Factors
Strong Free Cash Flow
Robust operating and free cash flow gives Galp funding for dividends, buybacks, investment and debt reduction. The sharp year-over-year FCF increase supports financial resilience, although conversion consistency should still be monitored.
Negative Factors
Meaningful Leverage
Debt roughly matching equity reduces financial flexibility when commodity prices or refining margins weaken. Although leverage has improved, the capital structure can amplify earnings volatility and constrain investment or shareholder distributions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Free Cash Flow
Robust operating and free cash flow gives Galp funding for dividends, buybacks, investment and debt reduction. The sharp year-over-year FCF increase supports financial resilience, although conversion consistency should still be monitored.
Read all positive factors
Galp Energia SGPS SA (GLPEY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.56B
Dividend Yield3.35%
Average Volume (3M)30.70K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.7
Beta (1Y)0.26
Revenue Growth13.02%
EPS Growth20.29%
CountryUS
Employees7,095
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.35
Shares Outstanding1,357,886,700
10 Day Avg. Volume22,763
30 Day Avg. Volume30,696
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.67
Price to Book (P/B)4.78
Price to Sales (P/S)1.08
P/FCF Ratio67.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Galp Energia SGPS SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. functions as a diversified energy enterprise, managing integrated operations both within Portugal and across various international markets. Its business is structured into four principal divisions. The Upstream segment con...
How the Company Makes Money
Galp makes money primarily by generating revenue across multiple parts of the energy value chain: (1) Upstream (Exploration & Production): it earns revenue from the sale of its share of produced hydrocarbons (crude oil, natural gas, and associated...
Galp Energia SGPS SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 27, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational execution (notably upstream ramp‑up, renewables scale‑up, upgraded EBITDA/OCF guidance and a material dividend increase) alongside active strategic moves (renewables acquisitions, partnerships, Move JV discussions). Key risks highlighted include market volatility, Brazil export taxes, deal‑related uncertainty (affecting future distribution policy) and some medium‑term sourcing/repowering questions. On balance the positive operational and financial developments outweigh the noted uncertainties.Positive Updates
Upgraded Full‑Year Guidance
Galp updated 2026 guidance to ~EUR 4.0 billion EBITDA and ~EUR 3.0 billion operating cash flow. Guidance is based on conservative macro assumptions (average Brent ~$70/bbl and refining margin ~$10/bbl for H2). Management states ~25% of the upgrade is from operational improvements with the remainder from macro tailwinds.
Negative Updates
Persistent Market Volatility and Macro Uncertainty
Management repeatedly flagged a 'highly volatile' market environment. Guidance uses conservative macro assumptions (Brent ~$70/bbl, refining margin ~$10/bbl for H2) despite spot margins currently >$30/bbl, reflecting uncertainty and potential for both upside and downside in realized results.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Upgraded Full‑Year Guidance
Galp updated 2026 guidance to ~EUR 4.0 billion EBITDA and ~EUR 3.0 billion operating cash flow. Guidance is based on conservative macro assumptions (average Brent ~$70/bbl and refining margin ~$10/bbl for H2). Management states ~25% of the upgrade is from operational improvements with the remainder from macro tailwinds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated full‑year guidance to about EUR 4.0bn EBITDA and roughly EUR 3.0bn operating cash flow (implying ~75% EBITDA→OCF conversion), based on assumptions including average Brent of $70/bl and an H2 refining margin of $10/bl (management also discussed sensitivities like $80/bl Brent and $13/bl refining); they raised the 2026 dividend by 10% to $0.70/share with the first advance in August, left the EUR 250m 2026 buyback unchanged and reaffirmed the ~1/3 of CFFO distribution policy, and said ~25% of the EBITDA upgrade comes from operational gains and ~75% from macro; operational metrics cited include upgraded production to ~130,000 boe/d (Koala ramp‑up), pro‑forma renewables capacity of 2.7 GW after acquiring a 361 MW Spanish portfolio (pro‑forma renewables EBITDA ~$110m for 2026), an underlift impact of ~$5m, and an expected Brazil export‑tax impact of around EUR 100m overall (≈EUR 20m cash hit recorded so far).Galp Energia SGPS SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 21.45B | 19.51B | 21.31B | 20.77B | 26.84B | 16.11B |
| Gross Profit | 3.03B | 2.34B | 2.73B | 3.98B | 2.67B | 1.83B |
| EBITDA | 3.31B | 2.37B | 3.50B | 3.75B | 4.54B | 1.81B |
| Net Income | 1.09B | 1.08B | 1.04B | 1.24B | 1.48B | 191.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.75B | 15.32B | 16.82B | 16.61B | 16.10B | 14.91B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.54B | 2.87B | 2.44B | 2.37B | 2.74B | 2.93B |
| Total Debt | 4.60B | 4.90B | 4.91B | 5.41B | 5.26B | 5.48B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.08B | 10.15B | 11.18B | 11.28B | 10.98B | 10.94B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.75B | 4.42B | 4.69B | 4.41B | 4.16B | 3.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.48B | 315.05M | 1.15B | 1.57B | 1.99B | 273.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.52B | 1.32B | 2.53B | 2.63B | 3.07B | 1.05B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.20B | -118.15M | -1.05B | -1.02B | -1.27B | -460.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.60B | -996.07M | -1.35B | -1.91B | -1.26B | -530.00M |
Galp Energia SGPS SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $266.20B | 10.17 | 14.66% | 3.25% | 7.37% | 103.01% | |
72 Outperform | $124.31B | 6.15 | 27.02% | 7.14% | 20.82% | 86.33% | |
71 Outperform | $78.38B | 13.04 | 10.93% | 4.56% | 4.18% | 139.58% | |
68 Neutral | $17.56B | 14.66 | 24.72% | 3.35% | 13.02% | 20.29% | |
66 Neutral | $101.09B | 11.52 | 21.61% | 3.61% | 6.81% | 21.88% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
58 Neutral | $112.68B | 21.16 | 9.53% | 4.60% | 15.84% | 791.90% |
* Energy Sector Average
GLPEY
Galp Energia SGPS SA
11.92
2.80
30.68%
BP
BP
43.81
11.55
35.79%
E
Eni SPA
53.58
19.99
59.53%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
20.12
8.74
76.80%
SHEL
Shell
92.95
23.81
34.44%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
42.09
18.68
79.79%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.