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Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
(NYSE:PBR)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$27.00
▲(51.26% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/06/26
Overall score reflects strong financial performance (high margins and sizable cash generation) as the main driver, supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and a constructive earnings-call outlook tied to production/refining outperformance. The score is tempered by meaningful leverage/cyclicality and overbought technical conditions (RSI ~78), which increase near-term volatility risk.
Positive Factors
Production growth
Production growth and successful FPSO ramp-ups strengthen Petrobras’s upstream scale and can support higher revenue and cash generation. The available additional capacity in the second half provides further operating momentum and reinforces its position in Brazil’s offshore sector.
Negative Factors
Leverage limits flexibility
Meaningful debt remains a structural constraint even with solid profitability and cash generation. If operating margins weaken, interest and repayment obligations could absorb more cash, limiting Petrobras’s flexibility to invest, deleverage, or maintain distributions through a weaker cycle.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production growth
Production growth and successful FPSO ramp-ups strengthen Petrobras’s upstream scale and can support higher revenue and cash generation. The available additional capacity in the second half provides further operating momentum and reinforces its position in Brazil’s offshore sector.
Read all positive factors
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras (PBR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$153.73B
Dividend Yield5.63%
Average Volume (3M)24.07M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.0
Beta (1Y)-0.22
Revenue Growth20.82%
EPS Growth86.33%
CountryUS
Employees50,687
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.97
Shares Outstanding3,721,115,700
10 Day Avg. Volume29,854,907
30 Day Avg. Volume24,069,119
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.87
P/FCF Ratio4.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.58
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.33Price Target Upside25.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)4.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$118.22B
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Brazilian energy giant Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) is deeply involved in the global oil and gas industry, conducting exploration, production, and sales activities both within Brazil and internationally. The company's diverse operations ar...
How the Company Makes Money
Petrobras primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons and by refining crude oil into higher-value products sold into domestic and export markets.
1) Upstream (Exploration & Production): A major source of revenue is the sale of cru...
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution and record financial results driven by production ramp-ups, higher refining utilization and robust cash generation. Management balanced this with caution on macro volatility (Brent/FX), operating-cost pressures (freight/logistics), some short-term balance-sheet recognition from lease amendments, regulatory uncertainty (gas policy), and ongoing exposure to Braskem. Overall the positive operational and financial momentum materially outweighs the challenges noted.Positive Updates
Record Recurring Profit and Gross Profit
Achieved the highest recurring net profit in dollars for a quarter in Petrobras' history (excluding one-offs). Gross profit reached $19.5 billion for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was ~$20 billion (≈70% QoQ increase and nearly 2x YoY).
Negative Updates
Exposure to Brent Price and FX Volatility
Management reiterated that Brent prices (above $100/bbl in period) and exchange rate remain outside company control; future project economics and cash flow may be materially affected by volatility and expected reversion of prices toward strategic-plan assumptions.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Recurring Profit and Gross Profit
Achieved the highest recurring net profit in dollars for a quarter in Petrobras' history (excluding one-offs). Gross profit reached $19.5 billion for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was ~$20 billion (≈70% QoQ increase and nearly 2x YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that strong operating delivery underpins its outlook: Q2 production was 2.7 million bbl/d (>3.0 million boe/d), beating the Q2 target of 2.5 m bbl/d by 200k and up 15% YoY (≈+350k bbl/d), with ~270k bbl/d of additional ramp‑up capacity available in H2; major FPSOs (225k nameplate) have hit up to ~270k bbl/d and six units already add >100k bbl/d above nameplate. CapEx was $5.3bn in Q2 (+4% vs Q1), $10.4bn YTD, ~82% to E&P and full‑year guidance ~ $16.9bn (±5%); activity rose (drilling +40%, completions +45%, interconnections +43%). Refining utilization exceeded 100% (Q2 ~101%, Apr–May ~102%), product output +6% QoQ, imports down 40% QoQ, exports +12% QoQ; adjusted EBITDA ex‑one‑offs was $20bn (+70% QoQ), gross profit $19.5bn, operating cash flow $12.3bn (+~50% QoQ). Balance‑sheet metrics: gross debt $70.8bn, net debt $60.4bn, target to converge to ~$65bn over the plan horizon (longer‑term net‑debt ambition cited), actions to save >$1bn cash over 2026–2030 and cut debt by >$400m by 2030; Q2 taxes/government take totaled BRL 88.6bn (BRL 500m municipalities, BRL 31.5bn states, BRL 34.2bn federal, BRL 22.4bn royalties).Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 104.22B | 88.10B | 91.42B | 105.54B | 124.47B | 83.97B |
| Gross Profit | 51.09B | 38.01B | 45.97B | 55.64B | 64.99B | 40.80B |
| EBITDA | 54.51B | 46.17B | 27.46B | 55.32B | 69.93B | 44.90B |
| Net Income | 25.55B | 19.71B | 7.53B | 25.69B | 36.62B | 19.88B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 247.08B | 223.28B | 181.65B | 217.07B | 187.19B | 174.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.39B | 9.24B | 7.53B | 15.55B | 10.77B | 11.12B |
| Total Debt | 70.81B | 70.09B | 60.31B | 62.60B | 53.80B | 58.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 153.99B | 147.07B | 122.30B | 138.09B | 117.36B | 104.54B |
| Stockholders Equity | 92.91B | 75.88B | 59.11B | 78.58B | 69.49B | 69.41B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 18.68B | 16.72B | 23.34B | 31.10B | 40.14B | 31.47B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 39.27B | 36.56B | 37.98B | 43.21B | 49.72B | 37.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -20.89B | -15.72B | -13.37B | -7.96B | -432.00M | 2.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -18.93B | -17.73B | -33.09B | -30.70B | -51.45B | -40.79B |
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Technical Analysis
Positive
17.85
Price Trends
20.13
Positive
18.77
Positive
17.74
Positive
Market Momentum
1.33
Negative
79.96
Negative
94.48
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.01, below the 50-day MA of 20.13, and above the 200-day MA of 17.74, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.96 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.48 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PBR.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $153.73B | 6.04 | 30.55% | 5.65% | 20.82% | 86.33% | |
76 Outperform | $424.79B | 20.53 | 10.98% | 3.33% | 12.71% | 34.53% | |
75 Outperform | $707.87B | 22.16 | 12.68% | 2.44% | 10.58% | 9.80% | |
75 Outperform | $288.87B | 11.09 | 14.66% | 3.02% | 7.37% | 103.01% | |
66 Neutral | $104.76B | 11.94 | 21.61% | 3.53% | 6.81% | 21.88% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
58 Neutral | $120.10B | 22.53 | 9.53% | 4.36% | 15.84% | 791.90% |
* Energy Sector Average
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Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
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14.43
131.32%
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Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Corporate Events
Petrobras Announces Second Oil Discovery at Ultra-Deep Morpho Well off Amapá
Oct 2, 2026
On October 2, 2026, Petrobras reported a new oil-bearing interval at the Morpho well in block FZA-M-59, in ultra-deep waters off Amapá, following an earlier discovery announced in August. The deeper drilling campaign, supported by electrical ...
Petrobras Details Tax Procedures for Non-Resident Investors Ahead of 2Q26 Dividend Payout
Oct 1, 2026
On September 30, 2026, Petrobras reiterated details of the dividend payment approved by its board on August 6, 2026, totaling R$17.4 billion, or R$1.34814262 per outstanding common and preferred share for the second quarter of 2026. The company cl...
Petrobras Receives New Fuel Subsidy Installments, Cumulative Support Reaches R$ 13.3 Billion
Oct 1, 2026
On September 30, 2026, Petrobras reported it had received new payments under Brazil’s gasoline and diesel Economic Subvention Programs, tied to sales recorded between June 16 and June 30, as well as a supplemental subsidy for gasoline sold f...
Petrobras to Fully Redeem 5.999% Global Notes Due 2028 in Late September 2026
Sep 23, 2026
On September 22, 2026, Petrobras announced that its subsidiary Petrobras Global Finance B.V. has set the redemption price for its outstanding 5.999% Global Notes due 2028, with the redemption scheduled for September 25, 2026. The company will rede...
Petrobras Secures Eight Offshore Exploration Blocks in Côte d’Ivoire
Sep 17, 2026
On September 17, 2026, Petrobras announced that its subsidiary Petrobras Netherlands B.V. signed production sharing contracts with the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire and PETROCI Holding for eight offshore exploration blocks. The agreements g...
Petrobras to Redeem US$1.08 Billion of 2028 Global Notes in September 2026
Aug 27, 2026
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras is Brazil’s state-controlled oil and gas company, operating across exploration, production, refining and distribution. Through subsidiaries such as Petrobras Global Finance B.V., the group also...
Petrobras Enters Direct Talks for Offshore Exploration Blocks in Ghana’s Keta Basin
Aug 21, 2026
On August 21, 2026, Petrobras announced it had submitted an expression of interest for offshore exploration blocks in Ghana’s Keta Basin and received approval from the country’s Ministry of Energy and Green Transition to negotiate cont...
Petrobras Posts Strong First-Half 2026 Results on Higher Oil Prices and Exports
Aug 20, 2026
For the first half of 2026, Petrobras reported a sharp improvement in financial performance, with sales revenues rising 35.7% year-on-year to US$57.1 billion and net income attributable to shareholders climbing 55.3% to US$16.6 billion, driven by ...
Petrobras Pays R$161 Billion in Taxes and Royalties in First Half of 2026
Aug 14, 2026
In the first half of 2026, Petrobras reported total tax and government take payments of R$161 billion on a cash basis, covering its own taxes, levies withheld from third parties and government take such as royalties and special participation. Of t...
Petrobras Posts Stronger Mid-2026 Balance Sheet on Revenue Growth
Aug 7, 2026
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras is Brazil’s state-controlled oil and gas major, operating across exploration, production, refining, transport and distribution. The company focuses on petroleum and natural gas products and rel...
Petrobras Sets Record 2Q26 Earnings on P-79 Start-Up and Refining Surge
Aug 7, 2026
In the second quarter of 2026, Petrobras delivered one of its strongest quarterly results on record, as higher oil and oil products output, including the start-up of the P-79 platform in the Búzios field and ramp-up of other systems, combined...
Petrobras Reports Mid‑2026 Interim Financial Position with Higher Assets and Debt
Aug 7, 2026
On August 2026, Petrobras filed interim financial information for the period ended June 30, 2026, providing detailed parent company and consolidated statements of financial position, income, cash flows, and changes in equity. The filing shows tota...
Petrobras Posts Record Output and Refining Utilization in 2Q26, Advances Pre-Salt and ESG Agenda
Aug 7, 2026
In the second quarter of 2026, Petrobras reported record total oil and natural gas production of 3.34 MMboed, driven by improved operational efficiency, enhanced reservoir management, and new platform start-ups such as P-79 in the Búzios fiel...
Petrobras Approves R$17.4 Billion 2026 Advance Payout to Shareholders
Aug 7, 2026
On August 6, 2026, Petrobras’ board approved R$17.4 billion in shareholder remuneration, equal to R$1.34814262 per outstanding common and preferred share, as an advance related to the 2026 fiscal year based on the June 30, 2026 balance sheet...
Petrobras Announces New Offshore Gas Discovery in Colombia’s Deep Waters
Aug 3, 2026
Petrobras reported a new natural gas discovery on August 3, 2026, at the Sandia-1 exploratory well in deep waters offshore Colombia, in Block GUA-OFF-O. The well, operated via its Colombian subsidiary PIB-COL in consortium with Ecopetrol, undersco...
Petrobras Sets Production and Refining Records in Second Quarter 2026
Jul 29, 2026
In the second quarter of 2026, Petrobras delivered record operational performance, with average own production of oil, NGL and natural gas reaching 3.34 million boe per day, up 14.1% year on year and 3.4% quarter on quarter, supported by higher ef...
Petrobras Receives New R$1.7 Billion Installment Under Brazil’s Diesel Subsidy Program
Jul 23, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Petrobras reported that it received a new R$1.7 billion installment under Brazil’s Diesel Economic Subvention Program, covering diesel commercialization between May 16 and May 31, 2026. This payment lifts the cumulative amo...
Petrobras Discloses GQG Partners’ 4.99% ADR Stake Following July 13 Notification
Jul 14, 2026
On July 13, 2026, Petrobras reported a change in a significant equity interest following a notification from asset manager GQG Partners LLC. GQG informed the company that the total exposure of its client portfolio reached 185,869,498 Petrobras ADR...
Petrobras Completes Acquisition of Offshore Block in São Tomé and Príncipe
Jul 10, 2026
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras is Brazil’s state-controlled energy giant, focused on exploration, production, refining and distribution of oil and natural gas. The company has been expanding its offshore portfolio, including...
Petrobras Schedules Late-July and Early-August Releases for 2Q26 Results
Jul 8, 2026
Petrobras announced from Rio de Janeiro on July 7, 2026 that it will publish its second-quarter 2026 Production and Sales Report on July 28, 2026, after market close. The Brazilian oil major will follow this with the release of its 2Q26 financial ...
Petrobras Receives R$ 2.7 Billion in New Diesel Subsidy Installments, Lifting Total to R$ 4.7 Billion
Jul 7, 2026
On July 6, 2026, Petrobras reported it had received two additional payments under Brazil’s Diesel Economic Subvention Program, totaling R$ 2.7 billion for diesel commercialization between April 20–30 and May 1–15, 2026. With thes...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.