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Chevron
(NYSE:CVX)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$233.00
â–²(16.56% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/07/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial strength (revenue rebound, robust absolute free cash flow, and conservative leverage) and a strong earnings-call outlook emphasizing cost reductions, capital efficiency, and debt reduction. Offsetting factors are margin/return normalization and weaker cash-to-earnings conversion in the latest period, while technical signals are mostly neutral and valuation is reasonable rather than clearly discounted.
Positive Factors
Production and operating scale
Record upstream production and refinery throughput demonstrate substantial operating scale and execution across Chevron’s integrated portfolio. Higher volumes can support stronger absolute cash generation, improve utilization of existing infrastructure, and reinforce the company’s ability to grow output over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Profitability below peak-cycle levels
The sharp decline in net margin indicates that Chevron’s earnings power has normalized materially from prior peak-cycle conditions. Lower profitability can reduce internally funded investment capacity and make returns more sensitive to operating performance, commodity realizations, and refining or chemical margin conditions.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production and operating scale
Record upstream production and refinery throughput demonstrate substantial operating scale and execution across Chevron’s integrated portfolio. Higher volumes can support stronger absolute cash generation, improve utilization of existing infrastructure, and reinforce the company’s ability to grow output over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Chevron Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Oil Production by Geography
Tracks oil output across various regions, indicating Chevron’s production capabilities, regional growth opportunities, and potential geopolitical risks.
Tracks oil output across various regions, indicating Chevron’s production capabilities, regional growth opportunities, and potential geopolitical risks.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyChevron (CVX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$424.79B
Dividend Yield3.24%
Average Volume (3M)8.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.8
Beta (1Y)0.09
Revenue Growth12.71%
EPS Growth34.53%
CountryUS
Employees43,039
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.47
Shares Outstanding1,975,771,200
10 Day Avg. Volume6,610,038
30 Day Avg. Volume8,767,204
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.72
Price to Book (P/B)1.51
Price to Sales (P/S)1.53
P/FCF Ratio16.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.85
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$230.00Price Target Upside15.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)16.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$242.21B
Chevron Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Chevron Corporation functions as a global energy and chemicals powerhouse, orchestrating its diverse operations worldwide. The company's business is organized into two primary divisions: Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment focuses on the...
How the Company Makes Money
Chevron makes money primarily by selling hydrocarbons and hydrocarbon-derived products across its integrated value chain. (1) Upstream revenue and earnings: Chevron generates substantial revenue from producing crude oil and natural gas and selling...
Chevron Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized very strong operational and financial performance in Q2: record production and refinery throughput, sizable cash generation (~$20B operating cash, $15.4B adjusted FCF), $3B of structural cost reductions achieved early, accelerated Hess synergies and clear capital-efficiency improvements (CapEx per boe down ~25%). Management announced a material commercial milestone in power (2.67 GW PPA with Microsoft) and significant upside from debottlenecking and exploration. Key risks highlighted include regional logistics (CPC pipeline and Black Sea), geopolitical constraints (Partitioned Zone, Strait of Hormuz), product-market tightness and some midstream/infrastructure uncertainties; China demand is also uncertain. On balance, the positives — strong earnings, cash flow, cost saves, debt reduction, and multiple forward-looking growth options — materially outweigh the listed challenges, though execution and geopolitical risks remain important to monitor.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Earnings and Cash Generation
Reported GAAP earnings of $12.1 billion ($6.11 per share) and adjusted earnings of $12.0 billion ($6.06 per share). Cash flow from operations (excluding working capital) was nearly $20 billion and adjusted free cash flow was $15.4 billion for the quarter.
Negative Updates
CPC Pipeline / Regional Logistics Risk
Intermittent activity in and around the Black Sea and CPC pipeline region tied to the Ukraine-Russia conflict has disrupted some flows; third SPM was offline for refurbishment but expected back in service in Q3. Management noted alternatives (Caspian shipments, rail, storage) but did not quantify full evacuation capacity if CPC were closed for an extended period.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Earnings and Cash Generation
Reported GAAP earnings of $12.1 billion ($6.11 per share) and adjusted earnings of $12.0 billion ($6.06 per share). Cash flow from operations (excluding working capital) was nearly $20 billion and adjusted free cash flow was $15.4 billion for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Chevron reiterated disciplined financial and operational guidance while updating several key metrics: Q2 GAAP earnings were $12.1B ($6.11/sh) and adjusted earnings $12.0B ($6.06/sh), cash from operations excl. working capital was ~$19.7B and adjusted free cash flow $15.4B, with organic CapEx of $4.4B in the quarter and an expectation to finish 2026 at the low end of the $18–19B budget (within a longer-term $18–21B range) and Permian CapEx below $3.5B; management also said 2026 CapEx per boe is expected to be ~25% lower than 2025. They affirmed a $6B affiliate distribution target at $70/bbl Brent (roughly $3B realized this quarter), reduced debt by >$8B (net debt/CFFO 0.6x), unwound working capital by $2.9B, and expect Venezuela debt recovery by early 2027. Operationally they cited global upstream production growth >5% q/q (up >200k boe/d q/q), U.S. upstream record near 2.1M boe/d, international ~2.0M boe/d, shale/tight ~1.7M boe/d, Permian >1.0M b/d for several quarters, and TCO/FGP debottlenecking raising 3GP oil capacity from 260k to 320k bbl/d (total processing just above 1.0M bbl/d). They also reported $3B of structural cost reductions achieved six months early (70% from efficiency gains), $1.5B of Hess synergies realized (50% above target) ahead of schedule, and reiterated 2030 objectives of 2–3% annual production growth, >10% adjusted FCF CAGR and >3% ROCE improvement at flat prices.Chevron Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 208.71B | 184.43B | 193.41B | 196.91B | 235.72B | 155.61B |
| Gross Profit | 64.69B | 56.09B | 56.93B | 60.39B | 65.59B | 45.43B |
| EBITDA | 55.63B | 41.09B | 45.38B | 47.38B | 66.51B | 40.28B |
| Net Income | 20.59B | 12.30B | 17.66B | 21.37B | 35.47B | 15.63B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 330.13B | 324.01B | 256.94B | 261.63B | 257.71B | 239.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.53B | 6.30B | 6.79B | 8.22B | 17.90B | 5.67B |
| Total Debt | 37.08B | 40.76B | 24.54B | 20.84B | 23.34B | 31.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 134.58B | 131.84B | 103.78B | 99.70B | 97.47B | 99.59B |
| Stockholders Equity | 189.88B | 186.45B | 152.32B | 160.96B | 159.28B | 139.07B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 27.01B | 16.59B | 15.04B | 19.78B | 37.63B | 21.09B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 45.32B | 33.94B | 31.49B | 35.61B | 49.60B | 29.19B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.13B | -15.91B | -8.94B | -15.23B | -12.11B | -5.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -26.96B | -19.06B | -23.47B | -30.11B | -24.98B | -23.11B |
Chevron Technical Analysis
Positive
199.89
Price Trends
204.75
Positive
192.98
Positive
186.44
Positive
Market Momentum
2.23
Negative
67.01
Neutral
89.18
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 199.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 207.93, below the 50-day MA of 204.75, and above the 200-day MA of 186.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.18 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CVX.
Chevron Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $424.79B | 20.81 | 10.98% | 3.24% | 12.71% | 34.53% | |
75 Outperform | $707.87B | 22.41 | 12.68% | 2.37% | 10.58% | 9.80% | |
75 Outperform | $289.93B | 11.22 | 14.66% | 2.93% | 7.37% | 103.01% | |
71 Outperform | $83.27B | 14.67 | 10.93% | 4.25% | 4.18% | 139.58% | |
66 Neutral | $105.51B | 12.21 | 21.61% | 3.38% | 6.81% | 21.88% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
58 Neutral | $120.54B | 23.47 | 9.53% | 4.16% | 15.84% | 791.90% |
* Energy Sector Average
CVX
Chevron
217.73
71.12
48.51%
BP
BP
48.53
17.03
54.05%
E
Eni SPA
57.45
24.59
74.83%
XOM
Exxon Mobil
174.08
64.95
59.52%
SHEL
Shell
102.99
33.91
49.09%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
45.02
22.77
102.31%
Chevron Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Chevron Restructures Bakken and DJ Basin Midstream Agreements
Positive
Oct 6, 2026
On October 6, 2026, Chevron announced that several subsidiaries had signed definitive agreements with Hess Midstream to restructure Bakken midstream contracts and establish new DJ Basin midstream arrangements. In exchange for extended Bakken terms...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Chevron Announces Senior Leadership Changes and CFO Transition
Neutral
Oct 5, 2026
On September 30, 2026, Chevron’s Board approved senior leadership changes effective January 1, 2027, reshaping oversight of its traditional oil and gas operations. Vice Chairman Mark A. Nelson will retain his vice chair role with expanded re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.