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YPF Sociedad Anonima
(NYSE:YPF)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$54.00
▲(5.06% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals and a very strong, guidance-up earnings call (record profitability, higher EBITDA/FCF outlook, and deleveraging). These positives are tempered by inconsistent bottom-line results/leverage reflected in the financial statements, a mostly neutral technical setup, and weak valuation signals due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Stronger free cash flow & liquidity
Recent FCF of $824M and record consolidated liquidity of ~$2.5B materially improve YPF's ability to fund capex, service debt, and pursue strategic transactions. Sustained cash generation and a larger liquidity buffer increase financial flexibility and reduce refinancing risk across the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Earnings volatility & recent net losses
Despite strong operating margins, reported net income has swung into losses in 2025 and TTM and ROE remains weak. This volatility signals that non‑operating items, FX/tax effects or timing issues materially affect retained earnings, creating uncertainty around sustainable profitability and returns to equity holders.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stronger free cash flow & liquidity
Recent FCF of $824M and record consolidated liquidity of ~$2.5B materially improve YPF's ability to fund capex, service debt, and pursue strategic transactions. Sustained cash generation and a larger liquidity buffer increase financial flexibility and reduce refinancing risk across the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$20.99B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.18
Revenue Growth-26.93%
EPS Growth-130.82%
CountryUS
Employees21,594
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1630.12
Shares Outstanding393,261,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,290,973
30 Day Avg. Volume1,500,760
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)<0.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00053
P/FCF Ratio-0.08
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$54.33Price Target Upside5.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)6.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$21.48B
YPF Sociedad Anonima Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
YPF Sociedad Anónima stands as an Argentine energy corporation, actively involved in both the upstream and downstream segments of the oil and gas industry within the country. The company's upstream division is dedicated to the exploration, develop...
How the Company Makes Money
YPF primarily makes money by selling hydrocarbons and refined products across an integrated model spanning upstream and downstream operations. (1) Upstream (exploration & production): YPF generates revenue from the production and sale of crude oil...
YPF Sociedad Anonima Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong positive operational and financial turnaround driven by shale growth, record EBITDA and margins, significant cash generation, liquidity and deleveraging, plus major project milestones (Loma La Lata, Argentina LNG, VMOS). Key risks remain around gas evacuation/VMOS timing, working capital timing from seasonal gas sales, pending large-project approvals and sensitivity to oil price volatility. Overall, the positive achievements and record financial metrics substantially outweigh the operational and timing risks discussed.Positive Updates
Record Adjusted EBITDA and Margins
Adjusted EBITDA reached $2.8 billion in Q2 (up 76% sequentially and ~2.5x year-over-year), driving an adjusted EBITDA margin of 43% — the highest in two decades; H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA was ~$4.4 billion, already above full-year 2023.
Negative Updates
Natural Gas Production and Market Constraints
Natural gas production averaged 37.3 mcm/d in Q2, down 6% year-over-year driven by exit from conventional fields; gas remains constrained by domestic consumption limiting near-term gas commercialization and evacuation.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Adjusted EBITDA and Margins
Adjusted EBITDA reached $2.8 billion in Q2 (up 76% sequentially and ~2.5x year-over-year), driving an adjusted EBITDA margin of 43% — the highest in two decades; H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA was ~$4.4 billion, already above full-year 2023.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
YPF raised its 2026 guidance assuming Brent at $75/bbl in H2 (implying an ~ $82/bbl average for 2026 vs prior $63), lifting full‑year adjusted EBITDA to ~ $8.0 billion (vs prior ~$6.0 billion and ~$4.0 billion in 2023), with average shale oil production of ~215,000 bpd for 2026 and an exit rate of ~250,000 bpd by year‑end; full‑year CapEx was increased ~5% to $5.8–$6.2 billion (~70% allocated to shale), expected free cash flow of ~ $2.0 billion (including M&A proceeds), net leverage forecast to fall to nearly 1.0x (previously guided 1.6–1.7x), and operational targets including ~19 rigs by year‑end (21 rigs by early 2027) and VMOS COD by end‑Q4 with first oil early 2027.YPF Sociedad Anonima Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 30.00T | 26.53T | 17.90T | 5.48T | 2.53T | 1.27T |
| Gross Profit | 10.69T | 7.16T | 4.94T | 969.46B | 650.78B | 243.15B |
| EBITDA | 9.97T | 7.32T | 3.90T | 1.08T | 631.62B | 162.45B |
| Net Income | 1.16T | -1.20T | 2.08T | -1.56T | 289.06B | 257.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 48.39T | 42.72T | 30.27T | 17.96T | 4.59T | 22.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.70T | 1.73T | 1.55T | 995.29B | 193.36B | 1.07B |
| Total Debt | 16.19T | 16.18T | 9.98T | 6.35T | 1.36T | 7.66B |
| Total Liabilities | 29.27T | 26.69T | 18.05T | 11.47T | 2.72T | 14.53B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.11T | 15.69T | 12.00T | 6.42T | 1.85T | 7.91B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.00T | -171.22B | 477.00M | 240.00M | 1.69B | 1.75B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.07T | 7.20T | 5.87B | 5.91B | 5.69B | 4.20B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.81T | -8.02T | -5.51B | -5.33B | -4.02B | -2.55B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.00T | 750.17B | -293.00M | 278.00M | -1.23B | -1.60B |
YPF Sociedad Anonima Technical Analysis
Positive
51.40
Price Trends
49.90
Positive
47.58
Positive
42.15
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Positive
51.00
Neutral
30.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YPF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.50, above the 50-day MA of 49.90, and above the 200-day MA of 42.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for YPF.
YPF Sociedad Anonima Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $109.60B | 6.15 | 27.02% | 6.18% | 20.82% | 86.33% | |
73 Outperform | $7.79B | 11.30 | 18.72% | 2.62% | 12.53% | 167.56% | |
71 Outperform | $80.28B | 13.39 | 10.93% | 4.66% | 4.18% | 139.58% | |
70 Outperform | $35.35B | 8.85 | 15.34% | 4.06% | 11.09% | 18.12% | |
66 Neutral | $97.83B | 11.15 | 21.61% | 3.72% | 6.81% | 21.88% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | $20.99B | -54.48 | -3.62% | ― | -26.93% | -130.82% |
* Energy Sector Average
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
50.05
16.31
48.34%
EC
Ecopetrol SA
17.17
8.74
103.65%
E
Eni SPA
55.28
21.42
63.27%
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
81.92
-1.41
-1.69%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
17.88
6.54
57.62%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
40.77
17.49
75.11%
YPF Sociedad Anonima Corporate Events
YPF Posts Strong Mid-2026 Profit and Confirms State Control in Latest Filing
Aug 11, 2026
YPF reported that its board of directors approved the condensed interim financial statements for the six-month period ended June 30, 2026, at a meeting held on August 10, 2026. The company disclosed a total net profit of ARS 2,314,934 million for ...
YPF Delivers Record EBITDA and Stronger Balance Sheet in 2Q26 on Shale and Refining Gains
Aug 11, 2026
In the second quarter of 2026, YPF reported a sharp improvement in financial performance, with revenues rising to US$6,574 million, adjusted EBITDA reaching a record US$2,804 million and net income climbing to US$1,205 million. The EBITDA margin h...
YPF Agrees to US$780 Million Sale of MetroGAS and MetroENERGÍA Stakes to EDENOR
Aug 11, 2026
On August 10, 2026, YPF accepted a US$780 million offer from electricity and gas distributor Empresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte S.A. (EDENOR) to buy its 70% stake in MetroGAS S.A. and 5% stake in MetroENERGÍA S.A., effectively exi...
YPF Appoints Government-Backed Director Santilli to Board Without Compensation
Aug 11, 2026
YPF S.A. reported that its Board of Directors, meeting on August 10, 2026, acknowledged the Argentine National State, acting through the Secretariat of Energy under the Ministry of Economy, had appointed Diego Cesar Santilli as a director represen...
YPF to Redeem Entire U.S.$134 Million Class XXXV Bond Series Early on August 27, 2026
Aug 7, 2026
On August 6, 2026, YPF S.A. announced it will carry out an early redemption of its Class XXXV Notes, initially issued on February 27, 2025, with a total nominal value of U.S.$139.9 million at a fixed annual interest rate of 6.25% and scheduled to ...
YPF Sells Mendoza Conventional Assets for $200 Million Under 4×4 Portfolio Plan
Aug 6, 2026
On August 5, 2026, YPF announced it had entered into an agreement to assign its interests in the Chachahuén cluster of conventional oil and gas blocks in Mendoza province to Energía Mendocina and Compañía Andina de Petróle...
YPF S.A. Sells Mendoza Non-Operated Oil and Gas Cluster for US$205 Million
Aug 6, 2026
On August 5, 2026, YPF S.A. announced that it had entered into an agreement to assign its interests in the Mendoza Non-Operated cluster, located in the provinces of Mendoza and La Pampa, to San Benito Upstream S.A.U. The cluster includes stakes of...
YPF Announces Ten-for-One Share Split to Boost Liquidity and Retail Access
Jul 21, 2026
YPF Sociedad Anónima has announced a ten-for-one share split for shareholders of record as of August 3, 2026, effective August 4, 2026, converting each ARS 10 par value ordinary share into ten ordinary shares with a par value of ARS 1. Follow...
YPF Repurchases Portion of 2026 Class XXVII Notes in July Liability Management Move
Jul 13, 2026
Between July 2 and July 8, 2026, YPF S.A. repurchased Class XXVII notes for a total of 5,474,570,617.50 pesos, equivalent to a par value of US$3,712,450, paying on average 98.92% of their nominal value. The notes, originally issued in October 2023...
YPF Announces Resignation of Class A Director Manuel Adorni
Jul 8, 2026
YPF Sociedad Anónima, the Argentine integrated oil and gas producer and fuel marketer, is a key player in the country’s energy sector and a prominent foreign private issuer for U.S. investors. The company’s securities are listed i...
YPF Repurchases Class XXX Notes Ahead of July 2026 Maturity
Jun 29, 2026
Between June 22 and June 26, 2026, YPF S.A. repurchased Class XXX Notes (YMCWO) for a total of approximately Ps. 16.44 billion, equivalent to a par value of US$11.1 million, which will be held in the company’s portfolio. The notes, originall...
YPF Buys Back Class XXX Notes Ahead of July 2026 Maturity
Jun 22, 2026
Between June 16 and June 19, 2026, YPF S.A. repurchased its Class XXX Notes (YMCWO) for a total of Ps. 33.7 billion, equivalent to a par value of US$23.2 million, and will hold the securities in its portfolio. These notes, originally issued in Jul...
YPF Repurchases US$14.9 Million of Class XXX Notes Ahead of July 2026 Maturity
Jun 16, 2026
Between June 8 and June 12, 2026, YPF repurchased Class XXX notes with a par value of US$14.924 million, paying 21.4 billion Argentine pesos at an average price of 99.93% of nominal value. The securities, originally issued in July 2024 and April 2...
YPF Completes Board-Approved Share Buyback Program in Mid-June 2026
Jun 16, 2026
Between June 8 and June 12, 2026, YPF completed a share buyback on Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos, acquiring 461,311 Class D ordinary shares at an average price of Ps. 83,321.2504, for a total outlay of Ps. 38.44 billion. The company stated that all...
YPF Repurchases Short‑Term Notes Ahead of July 2026 Maturity
Jun 8, 2026
Between June 1 and June 5, 2026, YPF S.A. repurchased Class XXX Notes for a total of Ps. 24.27 billion, equivalent to a par value of US$16.86 million, and will hold these securities in its own portfolio. The notes, originally issued in July 2024 a...
YPF Announces Resignation of Class D Alternate Director Carla Matarese
Jun 5, 2026
On June 4, 2026, YPF Sociedad Anónima announced a change in its board of directors, highlighting ongoing adjustments in its corporate governance structure. The board accepted the resignation of Class D Alternate Director Carla Antonela Matare...
YPF Launches AR$38.5 Billion Share Buyback Program to Support Compensation Plans
Jun 5, 2026
On June 4, 2026, YPF’s board approved a share repurchase program of up to AR$38.468 billion to acquire its own Class D shares on the Buenos Aires and New York stock exchanges, primarily to fund share-based compensation plans. The plan, finan...
YPF Repurchases US$51 Million of Class XXX Notes Ahead of 2026 Maturity
Jun 1, 2026
Between May 26 and May 29, 2026, YPF S.A. repurchased Class XXX Notes for a total of approximately ARS 71.9 billion, equivalent to a par value of US$51 million, which will be held in the company’s portfolio. The notes, originally issued in J...
YPF Buys Back Portion of Class XXX Notes Ahead of July 2026 Maturity
May 26, 2026
Between May 18 and May 22, 2026, YPF repurchased Class XXX Notes traded under the YMCWO symbol for a total of Ps. 15.79 billion, equivalent to a par value of US$11.33 million, which will be held in the company’s portfolio. The transaction, d...
YPF Completes Transfer of Manantiales Behr Conventional Area Under Upstream Portfolio Overhaul
May 22, 2026
On May 21, 2026, YPF closed the assignment of 100% of the conventional exploitation concession over the Manantiales Behr area in Chubut province, along with the associated hydrocarbon transportation concession, to Pecom Servicios Energía S.A....
YPF Repurchases Class XXX Notes Ahead of July 2026 Maturity
May 18, 2026
Between May 12 and May 15, 2026, YPF repurchased Class XXX Notes (YMCWO) for a total of approximately Ps. 8.75 billion, equivalent to a par value of US$6.28 million, which will be held in the company’s portfolio. The buyback, disclosed to Ar...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.