Skip to main content
TipRanks
Go Ultimate75% OFF

National Vision Holdings (EYE) AI Stock Analysis

244 Followers
EYE

National Vision Holdings

(NASDAQ:EYE)

Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:$19.50â–²(6.59% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:11/13/26

EYE scores as moderately attractive, led by improving financial performance and a positive earnings narrative (profitability recovery, leverage improvement, margin expansion and upbeat guidance). Technicals are supportive with positive momentum and price above key short-term averages, but the stock is still below the 200-day trend. Valuation is only fair (P/E ~22.5) with no dividend support, and ongoing traffic pressure plus expected Q4 margin deceleration keep the overall score in the low 60s.

Positive Factors
Revenue and earnings recoveryPositive comparable sales and sharply higher adjusted EPS indicate that National Vision is converting improving demand and customer mix into stronger earnings. Continued growth in revenue and profitability can support reinvestment, strengthen operating resilience, and improve the durability of its recovery.
Negative Factors
Persistent traffic pressureTraffic declines create a fundamental challenge because they reduce customer volume even when higher average tickets support reported sales. Continued weakness among lower-value shoppers could limit comparable growth, reduce operating leverage, and make future performance more dependent on mix improvement.

National Vision Holdings (EYE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%EYE-26.56%SPY+14.55%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$1.45B
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
2.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
22.0
Beta (1Y)
0.82
Revenue Growth
7.04%
EPS Growth
―
Country
US
Employees
13,138
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Specialty Retail

National Vision Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National Vision Holdings, Inc. operates as a leading optical retail chain across the United States, conducting business through its various subsidiary companies. The company's operations are categorized into two primary divisions: Owned & Host, and L...

How the Company Makes Money

National Vision primarily makes money by selling optical products and related services through its retail and digital channels. The core revenue stream is retail sales of prescription eyeglasses, including frames and lenses, where revenue is generate...

National Vision Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 12, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:1.13%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was predominantly positive. National Vision delivered revenue growth, positive comparable-store sales, significant adjusted operating margin expansion, more than doubled adjusted EPS, strong managed-care and higher-value customer performance, improved product attachment, cost savings, solid cash generation, and plans to accelerate store growth. The principal challenges were a 5.6% traffic decline, an extended purchase cycle among lower-value cash-pay consumers, a 2.5% comparable-sales decline at Eyeglass World, expected fourth-quarter margin deceleration, and gross-margin-rate dilution. Management remained confident in its strategy and emphasized that profitability and growth investments were progressing despite the challenging consumer environment.

Positive Updates

Revenue, Comparable Sales and Earnings Growth
Third-quarter net revenue increased 4.8% to $511 million, adjusted comparable store sales increased 2.8%, and adjusted earnings per share more than doubled to $0.30 from $0.13 in the prior-year period.

Negative Updates

Traffic Decline
Third-quarter customer traffic declined 5.6%, partially offsetting the 8.9% increase in average ticket. Management said traffic losses were concentrated in transactions below the average ticket amount.

Company Guidance

For fiscal 2026, National Vision expects net revenue between $2.02 billion and $2.04 billion, adjusted comparable store sales growth of approximately 2% to 3%, adjusted operating income between $119 million and $131 million, depreciation and amortization of $92 million to $93 million, adjusted operating margin expansion of approximately 110 basis points at the midpoint excluding the 50 third week, interest expense between $11 million and $13 million, an effective tax rate of approximately 30%, adjusted diluted earnings per share between $0.95 and $1.03 per share based on approximately 81 million weighted average diluted shares outstanding, and CapEx between $72 million and $74 million, including approximately 30 new America's Best and Eyeglass World stores, with net growth of 17 stores excluding the 20 military locations; the company expects approximately $10 million in annualized savings, approximately 2.5 to $3 million more Q4 investment than the original guide, and a deceleration in its adjusted operating margin rate in Q4, while fiscal 2027 new store openings are planned at approximately 50 to 55 stores, versus its long-term target of investing about 4% to 5% of revenue into CapEx each year over the 5-year period and an algorithm of approximately 50 to 150 basis points of operating margin expansion on average each year with mid single digit comps and the assumption of no deterioration in the macroeconomic environment.

National Vision Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are improving but still somewhat fragile. Profitability has recovered (TTM net income $66.1M; ~3.2% net margin; ~5.1% EBIT margin) and leverage metrics are better (debt-to-equity ~0.76; ROE ~7.4%), but absolute debt remains sizable (~$688M) and cash conversion is only moderate (FCF $68.2M vs net income; FCF/NI ~0.46; OCF/debt ~0.36).

Income Statement

63Positive

Balance Sheet

58Neutral

Cash Flow

55Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.06B1.99B1.82B2.13B1.64B2.08B
Gross Profit1.16B1.08B1.06B1.13B977.01M1.17B
EBITDA196.94M158.52M89.58M56.29M152.72M276.74M
Net Income66.10M29.60M-28.50M-65.90M42.12M128.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.00B1.98B2.01B2.17B2.29B2.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments59.96M38.71M73.95M149.90M229.43M305.80M
Total Debt688.05M694.60M816.03M923.15M1.00B973.25M
Total Liabilities1.10B1.11B1.19B1.34B1.39B1.37B
Stockholders Equity901.17M869.53M816.33M829.42M901.11M925.98M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow68.15M73.45M38.14M58.26M5.65M163.42M
Operating Cash Flow148.03M146.29M133.65M173.03M119.20M258.94M
Investing Cash Flow-74.79M-76.61M-96.09M-115.82M-110.89M-92.90M
Financing Cash Flow-69.42M-104.62M-113.34M-136.81M-84.56M-234.32M

National Vision Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral
Last Price18.30

Price Trends

50DMA17.13Positive
100DMA18.45Negative
200DMA20.89Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.34Negative
RSI55.12Neutral
STOCH65.31Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EYE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.30 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.70, above the 50-day MA of 17.13, and below the 200-day MA of 20.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for EYE.

National Vision Holdings Risk Analysis

National Vision Holdings disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Vision Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks
1.Our ability to source merchandise and services outside of the U.S. could be adversely impacted by changes in U.S. or international laws, including the imposition of tariffs by the U.S. and the resulting consequences.Q4, 2025
2.We may not be successful in implementing our transformation initiatives, or in anticipating the impact of important strategic initiatives, and our plans for implementing such initiatives may be altered or delayed due to various factors, which may have an adverse impact on our business and financial results.Q4, 2024
3.If we are unable to successfully implement our pricing strategies, it could have an adverse impact on our business.Q4, 2024

National Vision Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

EYE against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
SBHSBH78Outperform$1.67B9.0323.39%―0.90%7.82%
ULTAULTA76Outperform$27.83B23.9845.40%―11.16%5.20%
BBYBBY72Outperform$21.69B17.2942.82%3.68%1.45%65.55%
BBWIBBWI66Neutral$4.25B5.70-61.76%3.74%-2.18%14.77%
Sector *61Neutral$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
EYEEYE61Neutral$1.47B21.997.42%―7.04%―
GPCGPC46Neutral$16.94B474.380.69%3.42%5.29%-95.50%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%40%EYEBBYGPCBBWISBHULTADec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
EYE and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
EYENational Vision Holdings18.30-6.16-25.20%
BBYBest Buy Co.104.0733.1946.84%
GPCGenuine Parts123.341.190.98%
BBWIBath & Body Works, Inc.21.390.834.05%
SBHSally Beauty Holdings18.964.7333.24%
ULTAUlta Beauty660.66151.0929.65%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 13, 2026