National Vision Holdings (EYE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.58B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.81M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.84
• Revenue Growth: -12.14%
• EPS Growth: 64.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,411
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 77
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 79,053,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,058,051
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,814,798
• PEG Ratio: 0.60
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 35.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.26
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.11
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.03
• 1Y Price Target: $18.25
• Price Target Upside: -7.87% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.50 ▼(-1.56%Downside)

National Vision Holdings presents a mixed investment case. While it showcases strong revenue growth and positive strategic initiatives, profitability challenges and valuation concerns persist. The recent upward momentum in stock price is promising, but caution is advised due to overbought technical indicators and potential tariff impacts.

Positive Factors

Competitive Pricing

EYE offers an eye exam and two pairs of glasses for an affordable price, making them a leader on price in the marketplace.

Marketing Strategy

EYE expects its marketing composition to change as the company looks to become more impactful and efficient, with a higher emphasis on the mid-funnel.

Sales Growth

EYE has enjoyed a 13.5% sales CAGR since 2012, outpacing the industry and posting the most consistently positive comp performance.

Negative Factors

Customer Base Impact

Increased prices may deter EYE's core value-oriented customer, which could result in declining traffic and ultimately, customers.

Sustainability of Growth

A ticket-growth driven strategy may be a temporal fix and not sustainable for driving medium-to-long-term topline growth.

National Vision Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) is one of the largest optical retail companies in the United States. The company operates a network of retail locations that offer a comprehensive range of eye care services, including eye exams, eyewear, and contact lenses. National Vision Holdings operates various store brands such as America's Best Contacts & Eyeglasses and Eyeglass World, as well as providing vision care products and services through partnerships with Walmart and other retailers.

How the Company Makes Money

National Vision Holdings makes money primarily through the sale of optical products and services, including prescription eyeglasses, contact lenses, and eye exams. The company generates revenue from its retail locations under various in-house brands and through strategic partnerships with retailers such as Walmart, where it manages the optical departments in selected store locations. In addition to direct retail sales, National Vision Holdings benefits financially from its membership program, which offers discounts and other incentives to customers, thereby driving repeat business and customer loyalty. The company's revenue is bolstered by its expansive network of stores and its ability to provide affordable eye care solutions to a broad customer base.

National Vision Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Vision Holdings faces profitability challenges with a negative net profit margin and erratic revenue growth. The balance sheet shows a stable equity position but high leverage, and the cash flow is volatile with concerns about sustainability.

Income Statement

National Vision Holdings shows inconsistent profitability with a negative net profit margin in the latest year. The revenue growth rate is erratic, and EBIT margins have turned negative, indicating challenges in maintaining operational profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a stable equity ratio, but the debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, indicating reliance on debt financing. Return on equity has been fluctuating, reflecting inconsistent profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash flows show volatility, with free cash flow growth being inconsistent. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unavailable for the latest year, which raises concerns about cash flow sustainability.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.82B	2.13B	2.01B	2.08B	1.71B
	Gross Profit
1.06B	1.13B	1.08B	1.17B	925.14M
	EBIT
-10.36M	-46.83M	61.27M	174.94M	87.01M
	EBITDA
89.58M	53.12M	161.23M	272.03M	178.59M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-28.50M	-65.90M	42.12M	128.24M	36.28M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
73.95M	149.90M	229.43M	305.80M	373.90M
	Total Assets
2.01B	2.17B	2.29B	2.29B	2.33B
	Total Debt
816.03M	923.46M	1.00B	973.25M	1.04B
	Net Debt
742.08M	773.56M	773.40M	667.45M	667.18M
	Total Liabilities
1.19B	1.34B	1.39B	1.37B	1.43B
	Stockholders Equity
816.33M	829.42M	901.11M	925.98M	906.50M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
38.14M	58.26M	5.65M	163.42M	158.16M
	Operating Cash Flow
133.65M	173.03M	119.20M	258.94M	234.98M
	Investing Cash Flow
-96.09M	-115.82M	-110.89M	-92.90M	-76.41M
	Financing Cash Flow
-113.34M	-136.81M	-84.56M	-234.32M	176.28M

National Vision Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.81
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EYE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.80, above the 50-day MA of 14.44, and above the 200-day MA of 11.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 79.05 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.28 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EYE.

National Vision Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MNSO	75 Outperform	$5.59B	15.52	24.98%	3.32%	9.80%	-6.33%
SBH	72 Outperform	$892.91M	5.00	29.74%	―	0.17%	20.26%
RVLV	72 Outperform	$1.44B	29.31	11.97%	―	9.09%	106.50%
ULTA	70 Outperform	$19.04B	16.62	50.44%	―	1.06%	-0.29%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.93B	11.20	2.94%	3.91%	2.68%	-25.01%
BBWI	59 Neutral	$6.49B	7.64	-52.83%	2.80%	-0.93%	-4.07%
EYE	57 Neutral	$1.58B	―	-2.95%	―	-12.14%	64.36%

National Vision Holdings Corporate Events

National Vision Holdings Announces New CEO Appointment

On April 28, 2025, National Vision Holdings announced a CEO succession plan, appointing Alex Wilkes as the new Chief Executive Officer effective August 1, 2025. Reade Fahs, the current CEO, will transition to the role of Executive Chairman. This leadership change is part of the company’s strategic transformation and aims to continue its growth trajectory. Alex Wilkes, who joined National Vision as president in August 2024, brings extensive experience from his previous roles at CooperVision and EssilorLuxottica. The transition is expected to ensure a seamless continuation of the company’s strategic direction, with Mr. Wilkes’ leadership anticipated to drive new growth opportunities.

National Vision Holdings Expands Board with New Directors

On March 17, 2025, National Vision Holdings announced the appointment of Jim McGrann and Michael Nicholson as new independent directors to its Board, expanding it from nine to eleven members. This move is part of a Cooperation Agreement with Engine Capital, aimed at overseeing transformation initiatives and enhancing the company’s strategic direction. The new appointments are expected to bring valuable expertise in the optical and retail industries, supporting National Vision’s long-term growth objectives and potentially improving shareholder value.