National Vision Holdings AI Stock Analysis
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National Vision Holdings (EYE) AI Stock Analysis
National Vision Holdings
(NASDAQ:EYE)
EYE scores as moderately attractive, led by improving financial performance and a positive earnings narrative (profitability recovery, leverage improvement, margin expansion and upbeat guidance). Technicals are supportive with positive momentum and price above key short-term averages, but the stock is still below the 200-day trend. Valuation is only fair (P/E ~22.5) with no dividend support, and ongoing traffic pressure plus expected Q4 margin deceleration keep the overall score in the low 60s.
National Vision Holdings (EYE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $1.45B
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 2.15M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 22.0
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.82
- Revenue Growth
- 7.04%
- EPS Growth
- ―
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 13,138
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
National Vision Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Vision Holdings, Inc. operates as a leading optical retail chain across the United States, conducting business through its various subsidiary companies. The company's operations are categorized into two primary divisions: Owned & Host, and L...
How the Company Makes Money
National Vision primarily makes money by selling optical products and related services through its retail and digital channels. The core revenue stream is retail sales of prescription eyeglasses, including frames and lenses, where revenue is generate...
National Vision Holdings Earnings Call Summary
The call was predominantly positive. National Vision delivered revenue growth, positive comparable-store sales, significant adjusted operating margin expansion, more than doubled adjusted EPS, strong managed-care and higher-value customer performance, improved product attachment, cost savings, solid cash generation, and plans to accelerate store growth. The principal challenges were a 5.6% traffic decline, an extended purchase cycle among lower-value cash-pay consumers, a 2.5% comparable-sales decline at Eyeglass World, expected fourth-quarter margin deceleration, and gross-margin-rate dilution. Management remained confident in its strategy and emphasized that profitability and growth investments were progressing despite the challenging consumer environment.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For fiscal 2026, National Vision expects net revenue between $2.02 billion and $2.04 billion, adjusted comparable store sales growth of approximately 2% to 3%, adjusted operating income between $119 million and $131 million, depreciation and amortization of $92 million to $93 million, adjusted operating margin expansion of approximately 110 basis points at the midpoint excluding the 50 third week, interest expense between $11 million and $13 million, an effective tax rate of approximately 30%, adjusted diluted earnings per share between $0.95 and $1.03 per share based on approximately 81 million weighted average diluted shares outstanding, and CapEx between $72 million and $74 million, including approximately 30 new America's Best and Eyeglass World stores, with net growth of 17 stores excluding the 20 military locations; the company expects approximately $10 million in annualized savings, approximately 2.5 to $3 million more Q4 investment than the original guide, and a deceleration in its adjusted operating margin rate in Q4, while fiscal 2027 new store openings are planned at approximately 50 to 55 stores, versus its long-term target of investing about 4% to 5% of revenue into CapEx each year over the 5-year period and an algorithm of approximately 50 to 150 basis points of operating margin expansion on average each year with mid single digit comps and the assumption of no deterioration in the macroeconomic environment.
National Vision Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are improving but still somewhat fragile. Profitability has recovered (TTM net income $66.1M; ~3.2% net margin; ~5.1% EBIT margin) and leverage metrics are better (debt-to-equity ~0.76; ROE ~7.4%), but absolute debt remains sizable (~$688M) and cash conversion is only moderate (FCF $68.2M vs net income; FCF/NI ~0.46; OCF/debt ~0.36).
Income Statement
63PositiveBalance Sheet
58NeutralCash Flow
55Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.06B | 1.99B | 1.82B | 2.13B | 1.64B | 2.08B |
| Gross Profit | 1.16B | 1.08B | 1.06B | 1.13B | 977.01M | 1.17B |
| EBITDA | 196.94M | 158.52M | 89.58M | 56.29M | 152.72M | 276.74M |
| Net Income | 66.10M | 29.60M | -28.50M | -65.90M | 42.12M | 128.24M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.00B | 1.98B | 2.01B | 2.17B | 2.29B | 2.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 59.96M | 38.71M | 73.95M | 149.90M | 229.43M | 305.80M |
| Total Debt | 688.05M | 694.60M | 816.03M | 923.15M | 1.00B | 973.25M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.10B | 1.11B | 1.19B | 1.34B | 1.39B | 1.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 901.17M | 869.53M | 816.33M | 829.42M | 901.11M | 925.98M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 68.15M | 73.45M | 38.14M | 58.26M | 5.65M | 163.42M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 148.03M | 146.29M | 133.65M | 173.03M | 119.20M | 258.94M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -74.79M | -76.61M | -96.09M | -115.82M | -110.89M | -92.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -69.42M | -104.62M | -113.34M | -136.81M | -84.56M | -234.32M |
National Vision Holdings Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EYE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.30 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.70, above the 50-day MA of 17.13, and below the 200-day MA of 20.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for EYE.
National Vision Holdings Risk Analysis
National Vision Holdings disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Vision Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
3 New RisksNational Vision Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
SBH77.7Outperform
ULTA76Outperform
BBY72Outperform
BBWI66Neutral
EYE61Neutral
GPC46Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78Outperform | $1.67B | 9.03 | 23.39% | ― | 0.90% | 7.82% | |
| 76Outperform | $27.83B | 23.98 | 45.40% | ― | 11.16% | 5.20% | |
| 72Outperform | $21.69B | 17.29 | 42.82% | 3.68% | 1.45% | 65.55% | |
| 66Neutral | $4.25B | 5.70 | -61.76% | 3.74% | -2.18% | 14.77% | |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
| 61Neutral | $1.47B | 21.99 | 7.42% | ― | 7.04% | ― | |
| 46Neutral | $16.94B | 474.38 | 0.69% | 3.42% | 5.29% | -95.50% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EYE | National Vision Holdings | 18.30 | -6.16 | -25.20% | |
| BBY | Best Buy Co. | 104.07 | 33.19 | 46.84% | |
| GPC | Genuine Parts | 123.34 | 1.19 | 0.98% | |
| BBWI | Bath & Body Works, Inc. | 21.39 | 0.83 | 4.05% | |
| SBH | Sally Beauty Holdings | 18.96 | 4.73 | 33.24% | |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty | 660.66 | 151.09 | 29.65% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 13, 2026
