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Ulta Beauty
(NASDAQ:ULTA)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$639.00
▲(17.64% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
ULTA scores well primarily on solid profitability and strong free cash flow, reinforced by a positive earnings update that raised full-year guidance and emphasized sizable share repurchases. Technicals are supportive in the near-to-medium term (above key moving averages with healthy momentum), but the stock remains below its 200-day average. Valuation is reasonable at ~19.6x earnings, while rising leverage/interest expense and signs of slower growth and category softness temper the overall score.
Positive Factors
Raised guidance and earnings growth
Raised full-year guidance indicates management sees durable demand and operating leverage despite a more moderate retail environment. Expected sales, operating profit, and EPS growth provide a stronger earnings base over the next several quarters and support continued investment in market-share initiatives.
Negative Factors
Moderating growth and profitability
The shift from stronger post-2022 growth to a low-single-digit trajectory suggests that demand is becoming harder to expand. Margin normalization further indicates less favorable mix, higher costs, or more competitive conditions, which could limit earnings growth even if sales continue rising.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Raised guidance and earnings growth
Raised full-year guidance indicates management sees durable demand and operating leverage despite a more moderate retail environment. Expected sales, operating profit, and EPS growth provide a stronger earnings base over the next several quarters and support continued investment in market-share initiatives.
Read all positive factors
Ulta Beauty Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Store Count
Indicates the total number of retail locations, reflecting the company's physical presence and potential market reach. A growing store count can signal expansion and increased market penetration.
Indicates the total number of retail locations, reflecting the company's physical presence and potential market reach. A growing store count can signal expansion and increased market penetration.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUlta Beauty (ULTA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.26B
Dividend Yield1.13%
Average Volume (3M)493.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.6
Beta (1Y)0.64
Revenue Growth11.16%
EPS Growth5.20%
CountryUS
Employees65,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)27.55
Shares Outstanding42,757,470
10 Day Avg. Volume374,649
30 Day Avg. Volume493,840
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio22.87
Price to Book (P/B)10.35
Price to Sales (P/S)2.34
P/FCF Ratio27.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.57
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$632.94Price Target Upside16.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)29.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.28B
Ulta Beauty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ulta Beauty, Inc. functions as a prominent beauty product retailer throughout the United States. Its physical locations feature a broad assortment of goods, including cosmetics, perfumes, skincare, haircare items, bath and body essentials, and pro...
How the Company Makes Money
Ulta Beauty primarily makes money by selling beauty and personal care products to consumers through its retail stores and online channel. Its core revenue stream is merchandise sales across key categories such as cosmetics, skincare, haircare, fra...
Ulta Beauty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive picture: strong top‑line growth (+8.9%), double‑digit EPS expansion (+13.3%), raised full‑year guidance, robust e‑commerce/omni‑channel momentum, loyalty expansion and successful category initiatives (fragrance, K‑Beauty, wellness). Headwinds were present but largely modest — category pockets of softness (mass makeup, some skin/body), a slight gross‑margin impact from Space NK, higher SG&A tied to investments and an uptick in promotional intensity. Management signaled prudent assumptions for the back half and continued focus on productivity, margin management and capital returns.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line, Profit and EPS Growth
Net sales increased 8.9% to $3.0B (vs $2.8B LY); comparable sales +3.8%. Operating profit rose 10.1% to $380M and operating margin was 12.5% (vs 12.4% LY). Net income increased 8.1% to $282M and diluted EPS grew 13.3% to $6.55.
Negative Updates
Pressure in Mass Makeup and Certain Skin/Body Categories
Makeup comps were roughly flat overall; mass makeup declined in the low single‑digit range (stalled by lapping last year’s newness). Total skin care and body care experienced modest declines (body care lapped meaningful expansions from last year).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line, Profit and EPS Growth
Net sales increased 8.9% to $3.0B (vs $2.8B LY); comparable sales +3.8%. Operating profit rose 10.1% to $380M and operating margin was 12.5% (vs 12.4% LY). Net income increased 8.1% to $282M and diluted EPS grew 13.3% to $6.55.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ulta raised fiscal 2026 guidance, now forecasting net sales growth of 6.7%–7.2% (comp sales +3.2%–3.7%), operating profit growth of 8.3%–9.3%, and diluted EPS of $28.70–$29.00 (implying EPS growth of 11.9%–13.1%), assuming ~43 million weighted average shares and a ~24.5% tax rate; management expects gross margin roughly flat for the year with up to a 20 basis‑point improvement in operating margin, SG&A to grow less than revenues, and interest expense of $14M–$16M. For the second half they project net sales +4%–5% (comps +2%–3%), a second‑half 2‑year stacked comp >8%, operating profit +6%–8%, and EPS growth of 9%–12% (with normal seasonality—less EPS growth in Q3 vs Q4). Capital allocation targets include $1.8 billion of share repurchases in FY26 (about $1.0 billion remaining under the current authorization) and continued disciplined reinvestment to support market‑share gains.Ulta Beauty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.96B | 12.39B | 11.30B | 11.21B | 10.21B | 8.63B |
| Gross Profit | 5.09B | 4.85B | 4.39B | 4.38B | 4.04B | 3.37B |
| EBITDA | 1.94B | 1.83B | 1.85B | 1.94B | 1.88B | 1.57B |
| Net Income | 1.21B | 1.15B | 1.20B | 1.29B | 1.24B | 985.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.96B | 7.00B | 6.00B | 5.71B | 5.37B | 4.76B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 213.45M | 494.24M | 703.20M | 766.59M | 737.88M | 431.56M |
| Total Debt | 2.52B | 2.18B | 1.92B | 1.91B | 1.90B | 1.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.32B | 4.20B | 3.51B | 3.43B | 3.41B | 3.23B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.64B | 2.80B | 2.49B | 2.28B | 1.96B | 1.54B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.07B | 1.07B | 964.15M | 1.04B | 1.17B | 887.08M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.57B | 1.50B | 1.34B | 1.48B | 1.48B | 1.06B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -601.00M | -931.35M | -383.09M | -441.43M | -314.58M | -176.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.09B | -850.67M | -1.02B | -1.01B | -861.01M | -1.50B |
Ulta Beauty Technical Analysis
Positive
543.19
Price Trends
541.41
Positive
510.25
Positive
554.44
Positive
Market Momentum
6.33
Negative
61.35
Neutral
93.12
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULTA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 543.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 548.56, above the 50-day MA of 541.41, and below the 200-day MA of 554.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.12 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ULTA.
Ulta Beauty Risk Analysis
Ulta Beauty disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ulta Beauty reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ulta Beauty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $24.26B | 20.60 | 45.40% | 1.13% | 11.16% | 5.20% | |
74 Outperform | $1.54B | 21.24 | 14.05% | ― | 10.80% | 59.70% | |
73 Outperform | $2.80T | 20.60 | 30.50% | ― | 15.77% | 88.63% | |
70 Outperform | $1.46B | 7.85 | 23.11% | ― | 1.08% | 3.88% | |
62 Neutral | $3.51B | 4.64 | -61.76% | 4.61% | -2.18% | 14.77% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $2.99B | 16.12 | 11.79% | 6.94% | 30.43% | -44.33% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ULTA
Ulta Beauty
567.47
24.54
4.52%
AMZN
Amazon
259.53
39.46
17.93%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
17.41
-7.31
-29.56%
SBH
Sally Beauty
15.63
1.13
7.79%
RVLV
Revolve Group
21.66
0.77
3.69%
MNSO
MINISO Group Holding
9.73
-12.19
-55.61%
Ulta Beauty Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ulta Beauty Adds Independent Director to Board
Positive
Aug 17, 2026
On August 13, 2026, Ulta Beauty’s board appointed Brieane L. Olson as an independent director, effective August 31, 2026, to fill the seat vacated by Kelly G. Garcia as he transitions to the role of chief technology officer. Olson, currently...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ulta Beauty Appoints Kelly Garcia as Chief Technology Officer
Positive
Jul 15, 2026
On July 14, 2026, Ulta Beauty announced that board member Kelly E. Garcia will transition to the role of Chief Technology Officer, with his appointment effective August 31, 2026, at which time he will resign from the board. Garcia brings more than...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.