eBay (EBAY) AI Stock Analysis

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eBay

(NASDAQ:EBAY)

Rating:78Outperform

Price Target:―

eBay's strong financial performance, driven by efficient profitability and cash flow management, underpins its solid stock score. Technical analysis suggests potential for near-term gains, while valuation remains fair. Positive earnings call sentiment and strategic corporate events further support the outlook, although challenges from international markets and trade policies persist.

Positive Factors

Platform Resilience

EBay is building a more resilient platform through recent fee optimizations, improvements in discoverability, and investments in AI to drive personalization and reduce listings friction.

Revenue Growth

Investments in Advertising and Payments are driving upside to revenue growth.

Strategic Goals

EBAY remains a hiding spot in tariff-ridden eCommerce, executing well against its broader strategic goals.

Negative Factors

Advertising Risk

Advertising slowdown remains a key fundamental risk.

Economic Outlook

The full-year guide is still at risk of being cut.

Growth Comparison

EBay should trade at a discount to its e-commerce peers due to slower projected top-line growth in the years ahead.

eBay (EBAY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$33.38B

Dividend Yield1.51%

Average Volume (3M)5.95M

Price to Earnings (P/E)17.3

Beta (1Y)0.59

Revenue Growth2.04%

EPS Growth-15.61%

CountryUS

Employees11,500

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength74

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.38

Shares Outstanding460,843,600

10 Day Avg. Volume4,860,635

30 Day Avg. Volume5,949,477

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio2.78

Price to Book (P/B)6.56

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio15.06

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.88

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.88

Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.70

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$68.75

Price Target Upside-3.95% Downside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering29

eBay Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptioneBay Inc. operates marketplace platforms that connect buyers and sellers in the United States and internationally. The company's Marketplace platform includes its online marketplace at ebay.com and the eBay suite of mobile apps. Its platforms enable users to list, buy, sell, and pay for items through various online, mobile, and offline channels that include retailers, distributors, liquidators, import and export companies, auctioneers, catalog and mail-order companies, directories, search engines, commerce participants, shopping channels, and networks. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyeBay primarily makes money through transaction fees and advertising. The company charges sellers a listing fee to post items for sale, as well as a final value fee, which is a percentage of the sale price when an item is sold. These fees constitute the bulk of eBay's revenue. Additionally, eBay generates revenue from its advertising services, where sellers can pay for promoted listings to increase their visibility on the platform. eBay also earns from subscription services and managed payments, enhancing its revenue by providing value-added services to sellers. Key partnerships with payment processors and logistics providers further support eBay's revenue generation by facilitating smooth transactions and shipping solutions.

eBay Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Active Buyers

Active Buyers
Measures the number of unique buyers who have made a purchase on eBay, indicating the platform's reach, customer engagement, and potential for sales growth.

Chart InsightseBay's active buyers have stabilized at around 132 million after a period of decline, reflecting strategic shifts and market challenges. The latest earnings call highlights positive momentum in GMV and revenue, driven by focus categories like collectibles and innovations in trading cards and fashion. Despite weaker international markets and trade policy challenges, eBay's strategic initiatives and leadership changes aim to sustain growth. The stabilization of active buyers suggests potential for renewed engagement as eBay leverages AI and strategic partnerships to enhance the shopping experience.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

eBay Financial Statement Overview

Summary

eBay exhibits strong financial health with consistent profitability, efficient cash generation, and a balanced capital structure. Despite modest revenue growth, the company manages its margins and cash flows effectively, providing stability and potential for sustainable growth.

Income Statement

Positive

eBay's income statement shows a strong performance with a solid gross profit margin of 71.8% and a net profit margin of 19.8% for the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Despite a modest revenue growth rate of 0.28%, the company maintains healthy profitability with an EBIT margin of 22.3% and an EBITDA margin of 27.1%. These results highlight eBay's ability to generate profits efficiently, although the revenue growth trajectory is relatively flat.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.42, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. With a return on equity (ROE) of 41.2% for the TTM, eBay demonstrates strong profitability relative to shareholder investment. The equity ratio stands at 26.1%, suggesting a reasonable proportion of assets financed by equity, which provides a stable financial foundation despite potential risks from leverage.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

eBay's cash flow statement is robust, with a free cash flow growth rate of 8.78% for the TTM, signaling effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.27 and a free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.04 illustrate strong cash generation relative to profits, underpinning the company's ability to fund operations and investments from cash flows.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
10.31B	10.28B	10.11B	9.79B	10.42B	8.89B
	Gross Profit
7.41B	7.40B	7.28B	7.12B	7.77B	7.10B
	EBIT
2.30B	2.32B	1.94B	2.35B	2.92B	2.64B
	EBITDA
2.80B	2.86B	4.37B	-924.00M	1.17B	4.23B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
2.04B	1.98B	2.77B	-1.27B	13.61B	5.67B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
4.79B	5.89B	9.02B	7.47B	7.32B	3.83B
	Total Assets
18.95B	19.36B	21.62B	20.85B	26.63B	19.31B
	Total Debt
7.18B	7.86B	8.23B	9.29B	9.28B	8.14B
	Net Debt
4.15B	5.43B	6.24B	7.13B	7.90B	6.71B
	Total Liabilities
14.00B	14.21B	15.22B	15.70B	16.85B	15.75B
	Stockholders Equity
4.95B	5.16B	6.40B	5.15B	9.78B	3.56B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
2.13B	1.96B	1.97B	1.80B	2.21B	1.93B
	Operating Cash Flow
2.59B	2.41B	2.43B	2.25B	2.66B	2.42B
	Investing Cash Flow
3.27B	2.21B	240.00M	2.46B	3.66B	3.79B
	Financing Cash Flow
-4.37B	-3.81B	-2.45B	-3.79B	-6.53B	-5.69B

eBay Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price71.58

Price Trends

50DMA

67.05

Positive

100DMA

66.60

Positive

200DMA

64.05

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.44

Negative

RSI

61.95

Neutral

STOCH

88.32

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EBAY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 71.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.50, above the 50-day MA of 67.05, and above the 200-day MA of 64.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.32 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EBAY.

eBay Risk Analysis

eBay disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. eBay reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks

Cyberattacks and data security breaches and incidents could significantly damage our reputation, reduce our revenues, increase our costs, result in litigation and regulatory penalties, and otherwise harm our business. Q4, 2024

We are subject to laws and regulations that are not primarily intended for online commerce, and interpretations of these laws and regulations could harm our business. Q4, 2024

eBay Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BABA	81 Outperform	$296.73B	16.39	13.04%	0.78%	4.28%	28.42%
MELI	80 Outperform	$130.72B	63.44	49.11%	―	41.92%	81.11%
EBAY	78 Outperform	$33.38B	17.31	36.48%	1.51%	2.04%	-15.61%
PDD	78 Outperform	$164.90B	11.12	45.06%	―	57.51%	82.28%
CPNG	74 Outperform	$49.24B	197.98	6.06%	―	20.88%	-80.08%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.97B	11.36	2.77%	3.91%	2.66%	-22.00%
ETSY	61 Neutral	$4.90B	33.50	-39.97%	―	2.18%	-32.87%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

EBAY

eBay

71.58

19.74

38.08%

MELI

Mercadolibre

2,601.97

865.19

49.82%

BABA

Alibaba

123.59

42.65

52.69%

ETSY

Etsy

46.49

-17.55

-27.40%

PDD

PDD Holdings

116.20

-30.89

-21.00%

CPNG

Coupang

27.38

4.97

22.18%

eBay Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 5.02%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance with growth in GMV, revenue, and non-GAAP earnings, driven by focus categories and innovative initiatives in areas like trading cards and fashion. However, challenges remain with trade policy uncertainties and pressures from weaker international markets. Despite these challenges, the overall sentiment is positive due to significant achievements and ongoing strategic initiatives.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Positive GMV and Revenue Growth

Gross merchandise volume grew nearly 2% to approximately $18.8 billion, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of positive GMV growth. Revenue increased over 1% to $2.58 billion.

Strong Non-GAAP Earnings

Non-GAAP earnings per share grew by 10% to $1.38. The company also returned approximately $760 million of capital to shareholders through repurchases and cash dividends.

Focus Category GMV Growth

Focus category GMV grew by over 6% in Q1, with collectibles being the largest contributor to growth for the second straight quarter.

Growth in First-Party Advertising

First-party advertising revenue grew 14%, with active Promoted Listings increasing and making up over $1.1 billion of the more than $2.3 billion total listings on eBay.

Innovation in Trading Cards

eBay's strategic partnership with collectors and PSA continues to yield benefits, with innovations such as grading services and seamless integrations enhancing the trading card marketplace.

Fashion Category Improvements

eBay launched new AI-powered shopping experiences and expanded inventory coverage for authenticity guarantee in the fashion category, generating over $10 billion of GMV annually.

Geo-Specific Initiatives Success

Significant improvements in the U.K. consumer-to-consumer (C2C) market, with initiatives materially improving GMV trends and outperforming internal expectations.

Negative Updates

Challenges from Tariffs and Trade Policy

Tariffs and changes to customer requirements in the U.S. have created significant uncertainty for small businesses, impacting cross-border trade and consumer confidence.

Depreciation and Margin Pressures

Non-GAAP gross margin declined by over 0.5 point due to headwinds from depreciation expense and traffic acquisition costs related to promoted offsite ads.

Weaker International Markets

The macro environment in international markets, particularly in Germany and the U.K., has been weaker compared to the U.S., impacting overall growth.

Company Guidance

In the eBay First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company reported that their Q1 results surpassed expectations across key financial metrics, with gross merchandise volume (GMV) increasing by nearly 2% to approximately $18.8 billion, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of positive GMV growth. Revenue grew over 1% to $2.58 billion, while non-GAAP earnings per share rose by 10% to $1.38. eBay also returned approximately $760 million to shareholders through repurchases and cash dividends. Focus category GMV, which includes areas such as collectibles, grew by over 6%, contributing more than one-third of total volume globally. Innovations like AI-powered shopping experiences and strategic partnerships have played a significant role in driving growth. The company also discussed the impacts of tariffs and trade policy changes, emphasizing their efforts to help sellers and buyers navigate these challenges, including the use of their SpeedPAK shipping program. Additionally, eBay announced changes to its leadership team, with Steve Priest stepping down as CFO and Peggy Alford taking over the role.

eBay Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

eBay Announces Leadership Changes and New CFO

Positive

Apr 30, 2025

On April 30, 2025, eBay announced several leadership changes, including the appointment of Peggy Alford as the new Chief Financial Officer, effective May 12, 2025. Alford brings extensive experience from her previous roles at PayPal and the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative. Additionally, eBay reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a revenue of $2.6 billion and a gross merchandise volume of $18.8 billion, both up by 1% on an as-reported basis. The company also introduced new AI-powered features and expanded services, such as the Authenticity Guarantee in Japan, contributing to its strategic growth and innovation efforts.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.