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JD
(NASDAQ:JD)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
▼(-11.39% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/09/26
The score is anchored by stable fundamentals and a strong TTM free-cash-flow rebound, but is held back by sharply slowed revenue growth and compressed thin margins. The technical setup is the biggest near-term drag, with the stock trading below major moving averages alongside weak momentum. Valuation is broadly reasonable and supported by a solid dividend yield, but not compelling enough to offset the weak trend.
Positive Factors
Logistics & Fulfillment Network
JD’s owned warehousing, last-mile delivery and tech-enabled fulfillment are durable strategic assets. They lower fulfillment costs per order as volume scales, improve service quality versus pure marketplaces, and create high switching costs for merchants and consumers, supporting long-term competitiveness and margin recovery.
Negative Factors
Slowed Revenue Growth
A ~1% TTM top-line growth rate is a structural concern: limited topline expansion constrains operating leverage benefits and makes it harder to absorb fixed logistics costs. Prolonged sluggish growth can reduce merchant and advertiser demand, slowing marketplace network effects and long-term margin recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Logistics & Fulfillment Network
JD’s owned warehousing, last-mile delivery and tech-enabled fulfillment are durable strategic assets. They lower fulfillment costs per order as volume scales, improve service quality versus pure marketplaces, and create high switching costs for merchants and consumers, supporting long-term competitiveness and margin recovery.
Read all positive factors
JD Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business segments, revealing which areas are the most lucrative and where JD might face opportunities or challenges.
Breaks down revenue by different business segments, revealing which areas are the most lucrative and where JD might face opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyJD (JD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$40.67B
Dividend Yield3.27%
Average Volume (3M)7.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.1
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth12.13%
EPS Growth-67.45%
CountryUS
Employees776,682
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.98
Shares Outstanding1,248,259,500
10 Day Avg. Volume7,619,417
30 Day Avg. Volume7,966,590
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.29
Price to Book (P/B)1.27
Price to Sales (P/S)0.22
P/FCF Ratio59.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$38.19Price Target Upside20.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)21.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.37T
JD Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
JD.com, Inc. is a prominent technology and service provider based in the People's Republic of China, distinguished by its robust, supply chain-centric operations. The company's retail segment offers a comprehensive array of products. This includes...
How the Company Makes Money
JD primarily makes money through a combination of (1) direct retail sales and (2) marketplace and service revenues. Direct retail: JD purchases inventory from brands and distributors and sells goods to consumers; revenue is recognized from product...
JD Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong full-year execution with diversified growth: significant user acquisition and engagement gains, double-digit full-year revenue growth, JD Retail margin improvement, rapid scaling of new businesses and major AI and logistics investments. At the same time, near-term headwinds remain—Q4 weakness in electronics/home appliances, a sharp drop in free cash flow versus prior year, ongoing losses at scaled new business operations and JD Logistics' year-over-year profit decline. Management emphasized improving unit economics for new businesses, disciplined investment, and confidence in 2026 momentum.Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total net revenues for 2025 increased 13% year-on-year to RMB 1.3 trillion, driven by diversified growth streams across retail, services and new businesses.
Negative Updates
Electronics and Home Appliance Weakness
Electronics and home appliances revenue declined 12% year-on-year in Q4 (attributed to a high prior-year trade-in base), causing JD Retail Q4 revenue to edge down ~1.7–2% YoY despite full-year retail growth.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total net revenues for 2025 increased 13% year-on-year to RMB 1.3 trillion, driven by diversified growth streams across retail, services and new businesses.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to sustained user and revenue momentum in 2026 with mix-driven, margin‑accretive growth: they expect JD Retail to rebound in H2 after a high base in electronics/Home Appliances in H1 and to deliver retail profit growth toward its long‑term high‑single‑digit operating‑margin target (JD Retail margin was 4.6% in 2025, +52 bps YoY), while marketplace & marketing (Q4 +15%, FY25 +18.9%) and service revenues (Q4 +20%, FY +24%) should maintain solid growth and advertising synergies (JD Food Delivery contributed ~2–3% to ad revenue in Q4) will continue; general merchandise (Q4 +12.1%, FY +15.3%), logistics (Q4 +22%, FY +19%) and new businesses (revenue +201% Q4, +157% FY) will be scaled with financial discipline — JD Food Delivery narrowed losses (new‑business non‑GAAP loss RMB14.8bn in Q4) and cut investment nearly 20% QoQ with management expecting further unit‑economics improvement and lower 2026 investment if competition normalizes — all while targeting continued group gross‑margin expansion (Q4 15.6%, FY25 16.0%), higher non‑GAAP profit beyond RMB1.1bn Q4 / RMB27bn FY25, strong liquidity (RMB225bn cash) and continued shareholder returns (USD1.4bn dividend; USD3bn share repurchases in 2025); AI investments (JoyAI token invocations ~100× YoY, Jingyan 150M AAC with an expected double in 2026) are cited as key enablers.JD Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.32T | 1.31T | 1.16T | 1.08T | 1.05T | 951.59B |
| Gross Profit | 126.44B | 121.85B | 113.44B | 159.70B | 147.07B | 129.07B |
| EBITDA | 30.97B | 36.83B | 47.36B | 42.82B | 23.21B | 4.87B |
| Net Income | 13.81B | 19.63B | 41.36B | 24.17B | 10.38B | -3.56B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 683.16B | 695.64B | 698.23B | 628.96B | 595.25B | 496.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 214.87B | 225.51B | 234.00B | 190.15B | 219.96B | 185.33B |
| Total Debt | 107.62B | 107.17B | 89.77B | 68.43B | 65.05B | 34.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 403.48B | 401.67B | 384.94B | 332.58B | 321.13B | 249.72B |
| Stockholders Equity | 215.68B | 225.18B | 239.35B | 231.86B | 213.37B | 208.91B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 20.88B | 4.81B | 44.28B | 39.51B | 35.84B | 23.74B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 37.81B | 18.99B | 58.09B | 59.52B | 57.82B | 42.30B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.26B | 41.83B | -871.00M | -59.54B | -54.03B | -74.25B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -24.89B | -26.73B | -21.00B | -5.81B | 1.18B | 19.50B |
JD Technical Analysis
Positive
31.60
Price Trends
28.91
Positive
28.57
Positive
28.94
Positive
Market Momentum
0.44
Negative
70.38
Negative
92.31
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 31.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.33, above the 50-day MA of 28.91, and above the 200-day MA of 28.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.38 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.31 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JD.
JD Risk Analysis
JD disclosed 111 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JD reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
JD Logistics may need to raise more capital, which could dilute our equity stake or impose debt service obligations on JD Logistics, if such capital is available at all. Q4, 2023
2.
Our business is subject to complex and evolving Chinese and international laws and regulations regarding data privacy and cybersecurity. Q4, 2023
3.
A severe or prolonged slowdown in the Chinese or global economy could materially and adversely affect our business and financial condition. Q4, 2023
JD Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $119.76B | 8.39 | 24.04% | ― | 11.69% | -1.85% | |
71 Outperform | $63.73B | 39.44 | 14.24% | ― | 40.54% | 78.98% | |
70 Outperform | $91.96B | 48.37 | 29.58% | ― | 42.11% | -6.84% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $40.67B | 21.05 | 6.15% | 3.37% | 12.13% | -67.45% | |
58 Neutral | $275.39B | 17.75 | 10.00% | 1.31% | 4.44% | -16.38% | |
54 Neutral | $29.83B | -170.19 | -3.67% | ― | 13.10% | -163.64% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
JD
JD
30.60
-1.67
-5.18%
MELI
Mercadolibre
1,832.42
-546.64
-22.98%
BABA
Alibaba
120.34
1.14
0.96%
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Sea
105.69
-49.60
-31.94%
PDD
PDD Holdings
86.05
-25.61
-22.94%
CPNG
Coupang
16.44
-14.95
-47.63%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.