JD (JD) AI Stock Analysis

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JD

(NASDAQ:JD)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:72Outperform

Price Target:

$38.00

▲(19.31% Upside)

JD's overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and a solid valuation, offset by concerns over declining profit margins and cash flow issues. The company's strategic investments in new ventures present both challenges and opportunities for long-term growth.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term expansion and stability.

User Growth and Engagement

Increasing user engagement and customer base enhance JD's market position, driving sustained revenue and profitability growth over time.

Logistics Expansion

Expanding logistics capabilities strengthens JD's competitive edge in delivery efficiency, supporting global growth and customer satisfaction.

Negative Factors

Declining Profit Margins

Declining profit margins can erode financial health and limit reinvestment potential, posing a challenge to sustaining long-term profitability.

Cash Flow Constraints

Reduced cash flow generation limits JD's ability to invest in growth initiatives and manage financial obligations, impacting future operations.

Rising Leverage

Increasing leverage heightens financial risk, potentially affecting JD's flexibility to navigate economic downturns and invest in new opportunities.

JD (JD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$55.78B

Dividend Yield3.08%

Average Volume (3M)20.20M

Price to Earnings (P/E)9.6

Beta (1Y)0.93

Revenue Growth14.61%

EPS Growth32.78%

CountryUS

Employees570,895

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength84

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.70

Shares Outstanding1,490,500,000

10 Day Avg. Volume17,058,486

30 Day Avg. Volume20,204,759

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.12

Price to Book (P/B)1.63

Price to Sales (P/S)0.34

P/FCF Ratio8.80

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.74

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.03

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.25

Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.88

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$41.04

Price Target Upside28.85% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering11

JD Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China. The company offers computers, communication, and consumer electronics products, as well as home appliances; and general merchandise products comprising food, beverage and fresh produce, baby and maternity products, furniture and household goods, cosmetics and other personal care items, pharmaceutical and healthcare products, industrial products, books, automobile accessories, apparel and footwear, bags, and jewelry. It also provides online marketplace services for third-party merchants; marketing services; and omni-channel solutions to customers and offline retailers, as well as online healthcare services. In addition, the company develops, owns, and manages its logistics facilities and other real estate properties to support third parties; offers asset management services and integrated service platform; leasing of storage facilities and related management services; and engages in online retail business. Further, it provides integrated data, technology, business, and user management industry solutions to support the digitization of enterprises and institutions; and technology-driven supply chain solutions and logistics services. The company was formerly known as 360buy Jingdong Inc. and changed its name to JD.com, Inc. in January 2014. JD.com, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes MoneyJD.com generates revenue primarily through the sale of products on its platform, acting as both a direct retailer and a marketplace for third-party sellers. The company earns money from direct sales of goods, which contribute significantly to its revenue, as well as from commissions charged to third-party sellers for listing their products on JD's platform. Additionally, JD monetizes its logistics services by offering delivery solutions to other businesses and third-party sellers, creating another revenue stream. Partnerships with various brands and manufacturers also enhance its product offerings and drive sales. Furthermore, JD has been expanding its services into areas like cloud computing and technology solutions, which are anticipated to contribute to future revenue growth.

JD Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business segments, revealing which areas are the most lucrative and where JD might face opportunities or challenges.

Chart InsightsJD.com is experiencing robust growth across its segments, with electronics and home appliances leading the charge at a 17% increase, bolstered by strategic focus on user experience and 3P ecosystem expansion. General merchandise and marketplace revenues also show strong gains, reflecting effective customer engagement strategies. Despite challenges in new business operations, JD's commitment to leveraging AI and enhancing supply chain efficiency suggests a promising outlook. The company's strategic initiatives and revenue growth signal a positive trajectory, aligning with its optimistic earnings guidance and strong profit performance.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

JD Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 14, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 13, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted strong revenue growth and improvements in core retail profitability, driven by robust user engagement and supply chain capabilities. However, significant investments in new business initiatives like food delivery have impacted short-term profitability and cash flow. While the long-term outlook remains positive, the current financial impact of these investments presents challenges.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Solid Top-Line Growth

JD.com reported a solid top-line growth of 22% year-on-year in the second quarter, with total revenues reaching RMB 357 billion.

JD Retail Profitability Improvement

JD Retail's non-GAAP operating profit increased by 38% year-on-year to RMB 13.9 billion in the second quarter, with an operating margin of 4.5% up from 3.9% in the same period last year.

Record User Growth and Engagement

Quarterly active customers (QAC) accelerated notably to over 40% year-on-year in Q2, with shopping frequency on JD's platform rising by over 40%. JD Plus members saw an even faster shopping frequency growth of over 50% year-on-year.

Strong Performance in Electronics and Home Appliances

Revenues in electronics and home appliances were up 23% year-on-year, driven by strong supply chain capabilities.

General Merchandise Growth

General merchandise business delivered strong performance with revenues up 16% year-on-year, maintaining double-digit growth for major categories like supermarkets and fashion.

Negative Updates

Decline in Non-GAAP Net Income

Non-GAAP net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 7.4 billion, down 49% year-on-year, primarily due to investments in new businesses like food delivery.

Operating Loss in New Business

The non-GAAP operating loss for New Business widened to RMB 14.8 billion, primarily driven by the rapid expansion of food delivery and Jingxi business.

Impact on Free Cash Flow

The last 12 months' free cash flow as of the end of the second quarter was RMB 10 billion, compared to RMB 56 billion in the same period last year, due to cash outflows associated with the trading program and decline in operating income.

Company Guidance

During JD.com's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a robust year-on-year revenue growth of 22%, reaching RMB 357 billion. The electronics and home appliances category saw a 23% increase in revenues, while general merchandise revenues rose by 16%. JD Retail's operating profit improved by 38% year-on-year to RMB 13.9 billion, with an operating margin expansion to 4.5%. The company also noted a significant rise in quarterly active customers, which grew by over 40%, and a similar increase in user shopping frequency. Despite a decrease in non-GAAP net income attributable to ordinary shareholders to RMB 7.4 billion due to investments in new businesses like JD Food Delivery, JD remains confident in its core retail business and its strategic initiatives to drive long-term sustainable growth.

JD Financial Statement Overview

Summary

JD's financial performance is strong, with significant revenue growth, improved profitability, and a solid balance sheet. While cash flow management is effective, there are areas for potential optimization.

Income Statement

Positive

JD has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from previous periods, particularly the jump from 2020 to the recent TTM. The gross profit margin is healthy, reflecting efficient cost management, while net profit margin has improved drastically over the years, indicating better profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown improvement, depicting operational efficiency and strong earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

Balance Sheet

Positive

JD maintains a robust balance sheet with a solid equity base, as evidenced by a favorable equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity shows an upward trend, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits despite some fluctuations in earlier years.

Cash Flow

Positive

JD's cash flow statements show a positive trend in operating cash flow, indicating strong cash generation from core operations. Free cash flow has been positive and growing, although there was a dip in the latest TTM compared to the previous year. The ratios of cash flow to net income highlight efficient cash conversion, although recent decreases suggest potential areas for improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.27T	1.16T	1.08T	1.05T	951.59B	745.80B
Gross Profit	166.25B	113.44B	159.70B	147.07B	129.07B	60.41B
EBITDA	46.98B	47.36B	42.82B	25.58B	9.61B	58.01B
Net Income	38.65B	41.36B	24.17B	10.38B	-3.56B	49.41B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	706.94B	698.23B	628.96B	595.25B	496.51B	422.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	213.84B	234.00B	190.15B	219.96B	185.33B	146.66B
Total Debt	100.79B	89.77B	68.43B	65.05B	34.14B	31.55B
Total Liabilities	409.65B	384.94B	332.58B	321.13B	249.72B	200.67B
Stockholders Equity	227.16B	239.35B	231.86B	213.37B	208.91B	187.54B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	8.16B	44.28B	39.51B	35.84B	23.74B	34.87B
Operating Cash Flow	24.82B	58.09B	59.52B	57.82B	42.30B	42.54B
Investing Cash Flow	33.70B	-871.00M	-59.54B	-54.03B	-74.25B	-57.81B
Financing Cash Flow	-24.32B	-21.00B	-5.81B	1.18B	19.50B	71.07B

JD Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price31.85

Price Trends

50DMA

32.99

Negative

100DMA

32.86

Negative

200DMA

35.50

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.28

Positive

RSI

38.81

Neutral

STOCH

15.33

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 31.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.76, below the 50-day MA of 32.99, and below the 200-day MA of 35.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.33 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JD.

JD Risk Analysis

JD disclosed 111 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JD reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

JD Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SE	78 Outperform	$107.05B	91.75	14.48%	―	34.12%	―
BABA	75 Outperform	$405.68B	17.98	15.22%	1.25%	5.48%	128.65%
PDD	73 Outperform	$172.58B	13.55	31.78%	―	20.09%	-1.83%
JD	72 Outperform	$55.78B	9.59	17.26%	3.08%	14.61%	32.78%
MELI	71 Outperform	$115.34B	52.69	43.83%	―	38.27%	46.21%
CPNG	62 Neutral	$56.93B	157.25	8.55%	―	18.69%	-65.55%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

31.85

-12.29

-27.84%

MELI

Mercadolibre

2,133.67

53.71

2.58%

BABA

Alibaba

159.01

52.97

49.95%

Sea

180.82

80.63

80.48%

PDD

PDD Holdings

124.27

-11.76

-8.65%

CPNG

Coupang

31.23

5.59

21.80%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 10, 2025