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MINISO Group Holding
(NYSE:MNSO)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
â–¼(-16.81% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
The score is driven primarily by fundamentals that are mixed: strong growth and gross margins with continued positive free cash flow, but a notable 2025 profitability compression and a sharp increase in leverage raise risk. Technicals are meaningfully weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation is relatively attractive (P/E ~11 and ~6.16% yield). The latest earnings call adds caution due to margin/profit down-guidance and overseas execution/inventory challenges despite ongoing revenue growth expectations and shareholder returns.
Positive Factors
China growth
Strong mainland growth materially outpaces local retail growth, showing that MINISO’s product refresh, store formats, and value positioning are resonating with consumers. Continued same-store gains alongside network expansion can provide a durable base for revenue growth over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Profitability compression
The sharp decline in net and operating profitability weakens confidence that recent revenue growth is translating efficiently into earnings. If higher costs, mix changes, or other operating pressures persist, reduced margins could constrain reinvestment capacity and lower profit durability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
China growth
Strong mainland growth materially outpaces local retail growth, showing that MINISO’s product refresh, store formats, and value positioning are resonating with consumers. Continued same-store gains alongside network expansion can provide a durable base for revenue growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
MINISO Group Holding (MNSO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.78B
Dividend Yield6.94%
Average Volume (3M)994.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.9
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth30.43%
EPS Growth-44.33%
CountryUS
Employees8,329
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.60
Shares Outstanding303,510,380
10 Day Avg. Volume1,066,746
30 Day Avg. Volume994,843
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.63
Price to Book (P/B)3.78
Price to Sales (P/S)1.87
P/FCF Ratio24.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.55Price Target Upside9.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)7.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$24.78B
MINISO Group Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MINISO Group Holding Limited functions as an investment holding firm primarily engaged in the global retail and wholesale distribution of a broad spectrum of lifestyle products. The company's operations extend across China, various parts of Asia, ...
How the Company Makes Money
MINISO primarily makes money by selling merchandise to consumers through its MINISO-branded retail network and online channels. Revenue is generated from (1) retail sales at self-operated stores, where the company records product sales to end cust...
MINISO Group Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: strong, high-quality growth in China, rapid progress on proprietary IP and membership initiatives, healthy cash generation and shareholder returns are significant positives. However, meaningful execution and profitability challenges in overseas markets, elevated inventory days internationally, increased operating expenses and a more cautious profit/margin outlook introduce notable near-term risks. Management’s clear action plans (slowing overseas rollouts, focusing on ROI and refining store/product cadence) are constructive but indicate a transitional period.Positive Updates
Strong H1 Revenue and Growth
Group H1 revenue of RMB 11.5 billion, up 22.4% YoY; EPS grew 8.2% and operating cash flow/net cash inflow from operations rose ~45% (RMB 1.48 billion). Global store count reached 8,674.
Negative Updates
Overseas Profitability and Execution Challenges
Overseas performance fell short of expectations: overseas contribution to company profit declined from ~35–40% in 2023 to ~10–15% in H1. Management cited distributor revenue declines and directly-operated international markets still in early investment/refinement stage; they will slow overseas store openings and focus on ROI.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong H1 Revenue and Growth
Group H1 revenue of RMB 11.5 billion, up 22.4% YoY; EPS grew 8.2% and operating cash flow/net cash inflow from operations rose ~45% (RMB 1.48 billion). Global store count reached 8,674.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided company revenue to grow high single‑digits in H2 (mid‑double‑digits for the full year), with MINISO China revenue up mid‑to‑upper single‑digits in H2 while overseas revenue grows low single‑digits; they expect overseas distributor revenue to decline low‑double‑digits and overseas directly‑operated business to grow low‑double‑digits, TOP TOY to be roughly flat in H2 (low‑double‑digit growth for the full year), and same‑store growth guidance to remain low single‑digits for MINISO China and North America for the full year. They plan H2 net store moves of a 50–70 net reduction in overseas stores overall (including a net addition of 40–50 directly‑operated stores and a net reduction of 100–110 distributor stores). Profit guidance is more cautious: adjusted operating profit (ex‑FX) is expected to decline high single‑digits Y/Y with adjusted operating profit margin down ~3–4 percentage points; tariff‑refunds should add ~20–30 bps to gross margin over the next two quarters. Management also reiterated a shareholder‑return policy of buybacks plus dividends of no less than 50% of adjusted net profit (ex‑FX).MINISO Group Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 21.44B | 16.99B | 15.26B | 11.47B | 10.09B |
| Gross Profit | 9.65B | 7.64B | 6.48B | 4.44B | 3.07B |
| EBITDA | 3.60B | 4.29B | 3.90B | 2.43B | 1.02B |
| Net Income | 1.21B | 2.62B | 2.50B | 1.77B | 638.17M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 28.65B | 18.12B | 14.49B | 13.45B | 11.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.09B | 6.70B | 6.63B | 7.28B | 5.80B |
| Total Debt | 11.41B | 3.11B | 1.25B | 892.95M | 658.01M |
| Total Liabilities | 17.93B | 7.76B | 5.29B | 4.53B | 4.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.63B | 10.31B | 9.17B | 8.90B | 7.03B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.65B | 1.41B | 1.67B | 1.49B | 172.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.62B | 2.17B | 2.20B | 1.67B | 1.41B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.02B | -533.25M | 354.15M | -293.41M | -2.13B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.92B | -1.72B | -2.64B | -325.96M | -733.56M |
MINISO Group Holding Technical Analysis
Neutral
11.42
Price Trends
10.19
Negative
11.36
Negative
14.20
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.23
Negative
55.10
Neutral
58.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNSO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.98, above the 50-day MA of 10.19, and below the 200-day MA of 14.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MNSO.
MINISO Group Holding Risk Analysis
MINISO Group Holding disclosed 103 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MINISO Group Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Adverse developments affecting financial institutions or the financial services industry in general, such as actual events or concerns involving liquidity, defaults or non-performance by financial institutions or transactional counterparties, could adversely affect our current and projected business operations and our financial condition and results of operations. Q2, 2023
2.
Our business is operated globally. Global inflationary pressures could negatively affect our results of operations and cash flows. Q2, 2023
MINISO Group Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $649.92M | 9.12 | 17.36% | 7.71% | 15.53% | 136.38% | |
74 Outperform | $11.82B | 19.12 | 27.73% | ― | 25.56% | 126.16% | |
70 Outperform | $1.49B | 7.99 | 23.11% | ― | 1.08% | 3.88% | |
62 Neutral | $3.50B | 4.62 | -61.76% | 4.61% | -2.18% | 14.77% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $2.78B | 15.88 | 11.79% | 6.94% | 30.43% | -44.33% | |
47 Neutral | $6.39M | 0.89 | 1.71% | 13.50% | 77.22% | -89.32% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MNSO
MINISO Group Holding
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MINISO Group Holding Corporate Events
MINISO Details Late-September 2026 Share Buybacks Under Ongoing Repurchase Mandate
Oct 5, 2026
MINISO Group Holding filed a Form 6-K on October 5, 2026, detailing a series of Next Day Disclosure Returns tied to changes in its share capital and buyback activity in late September and early October 2026. The disclosures show that on September ...
MINISO Details September 2026 Share Repurchases Under Ongoing Buyback Program
Sep 23, 2026
MINISO Group Holding disclosed a series of Next Day Disclosure Returns in mid-September 2026, detailing changes in its share capital and repurchase activities linked to its Hong Kong listing. The filings, covering events through September 22, 2026...
MINISO Extends Cross-Border Share Buybacks Under 10b5-1 Program
Sep 17, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited reported to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on September 17, 2026 as a foreign private issuer, detailing recent changes in its share capital via a Form 6-K filing. The filing reflects its compliance obligat...
MINISO Steps Up Hong Kong Share Buybacks in September 2026
Sep 14, 2026
MINISO Group Holding filed a Form 6-K for September 2026, detailing multiple Next Day Disclosure Returns tied to changes in its share capital on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The filing, signed on September 14, 2026, reflects ongoing capital manag...
MINISO details early-September share buybacks in latest Form 6-K
Sep 8, 2026
On September 8, 2026, MINISO Group filed a Form 6-K in the United States summarizing a series of Hong Kong Next Day Disclosure Returns and a Monthly Return covering equity movements through August 31, 2026. The filings detail minor changes in its ...
MINISO Details Late-August 2026 Share Buybacks and Equity Movements in Latest SEC Filing
Sep 3, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited reported a series of share capital movements via Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosure returns for the period from August 28 to September 2, 2026, as filed with the U.S. SEC on September 3, 2026. On August 28, 2026, the ...
MINISO Posts Double-Digit Revenue Growth and Rapid Store Expansion in First Half of 2026
Aug 31, 2026
MINISO reported unaudited results for the June quarter and first half of 2026 on August 28, 2026, posting a 22.4% year-on-year rise in revenue to RMB 11.5 billion and a 22.5% increase in gross profit, while diluted earnings per ADS grew 8.2% and n...
MINISO Cancels Repurchased Shares, Trims Outstanding Equity in Dual Listings
Aug 25, 2026
On August 24, 2026, MINISO Group Holding Limited reported changes to its issued share capital following the cancellation of previously repurchased shares on the Hong Kong and New York exchanges. The disclosure shows that the company reduced its ou...
MINISO Group Sets August 28 Date for June Quarter and Interim Results
Aug 17, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited, the global value retailer behind the MINISO and TOP TOY brands, said from Guangzhou on August 14, 2026, that it will report its June quarter and interim financial results before the U.S. market opens on August 28, 202...
MINISO Files July 2026 Monthly Share Capital Return, Confirms Stable Float and Pending Buyback Cancellations
Aug 6, 2026
MINISO Group Holding reported to the U.S. SEC and Hong Kong stock exchange that its authorised share capital remained at 10 billion ordinary shares with a par value of US$0.00001 as of July 31, 2026, with no changes in issued share capital or trea...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.