Miniso Group Holding Ltd. (MNSO)
NYSE:MNSO
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MINISO Group Holding
(NYSE:MNSO)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
▼(-15.84% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/28/26
The score is supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and a positive earnings-call outlook driven by strong revenue growth and international expansion. These are tempered by fundamental risk from 2025 margin compression and higher leverage, and by weak technicals with the stock in a pronounced downtrend.
Positive Factors
Sustained high revenue growth
Consistent high single- to double-digit top-line growth (28%+ recent quarters) signals durable demand for MINISO’s product assortment and successful execution. Sustained revenue expansion supports scale benefits in sourcing, funds international store rollouts, and underpins reinvestment capacity over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
A rapid increase in leverage to ~1.07 materially reduces financial flexibility and raises interest and refinancing risk. Higher debt limits capacity to invest and increases vulnerability if margins or cash flows weaken, making the capital structure a persistent risk over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained high revenue growth
Consistent high single- to double-digit top-line growth (28%+ recent quarters) signals durable demand for MINISO’s product assortment and successful execution. Sustained revenue expansion supports scale benefits in sourcing, funds international store rollouts, and underpins reinvestment capacity over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
MINISO Group Holding (MNSO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.14B
Dividend Yield3.1%
Average Volume (3M)518.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.5
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth30.50%
EPS Growth-13.32%
CountryUS
Employees7,003
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.56
Shares Outstanding309,740,100
10 Day Avg. Volume795,092
30 Day Avg. Volume518,229
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.63
Price to Book (P/B)3.78
Price to Sales (P/S)1.93
P/FCF Ratio24.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap8.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.80
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.43Price Target Upside27.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)9.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)$25.24B
MINISO Group Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of lifestyle products in China, Asia, the Americas, and Europe. The company offers products in various categories, including home decor products, smal...
How the Company Makes Money
MINISO primarily makes money by selling consumer goods through its retail network under the MINISO brand. Revenue is generated mainly from merchandise sales to customers in company-operated stores and via e-commerce/digital channels where applicab...
MINISO Group Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 31, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reported strong top-line outperformance, record revenue and GMV milestones, successful international execution (notably the U.S.) and rapid proprietary-IP traction (Youyou), supported by robust cash generation and shareholder returns. However, profitability has near-term pressure from accelerated operating expenses, direct-operated expansion, increased licensing and financing-related adjustments (notably a large YH loss and higher SBC), plus elevated overseas inventory and mixed results in parts of Southeast Asia. Management expects continued high-quality growth and plans significant store upgrades and IP investment in 2026, while acknowledging near-term investment-related margin headwinds.Positive Updates
Quarterly and Full-Year Revenue Milestones
Q4 revenue rose 32.7% YoY to a quarterly record (RMB 6.25 billion+), single-quarter GMV exceeded RMB 10 billion for the first time, and full-year 2025 revenue crossed RMB 21.44 billion (group revenue growth ~26.2% for the year).
Negative Updates
Margin Pressure from Investment and Channel Mix
Q4 gross profit margin slipped to 46.4% (vs 47% YoY) and full-year GP margin 45% was flat YoY; margin compression attributed to higher direct-operated store costs, increased licensing fees and other operating investments, with group-level adjusted operating margin impact noted around ~3 percentage points for the year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly and Full-Year Revenue Milestones
Q4 revenue rose 32.7% YoY to a quarterly record (RMB 6.25 billion+), single-quarter GMV exceeded RMB 10 billion for the first time, and full-year 2025 revenue crossed RMB 21.44 billion (group revenue growth ~26.2% for the year).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 toward continued high‑quality growth, targeting group revenue growth in the high‑teens (management also stated at one point a floor of ≥25%) and a 3‑year CAGR (2023–2026) of no less than 22%; they plan 510–550 net new store adds globally (≈120 in China, ~250 internationally) while driving same‑store sales improvement—China expected to be low‑ to high‑single‑digit and North America mid‑ to high‑double‑digit growth—and expect adjusted operating profit and adjusted net profit growth to accelerate. Management reiterated seasonality (~60% of revenue in H2, 40% in H1), will exclude an RMB 850–900 million Q1 investment gain from adjusted metrics, and emphasized a push for profitability and cash‑flow‑backed growth via store upgrades (290 renovations in 2025 drove ~40–50% sales uplifts) and a focus on MINISO Land large‑format openings.MINISO Group Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 18.63B | 20.86B | 16.99B | 15.26B | 11.47B | 10.09B |
| Gross Profit | 8.40B | 9.39B | 7.64B | 6.48B | 4.44B | 3.07B |
| EBITDA | 3.26B | 4.22B | 4.29B | 3.62B | 2.43B | 1.02B |
| Net Income | 2.35B | 1.17B | 2.62B | 2.50B | 1.77B | 638.17M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 26.65B | 28.65B | 18.12B | 14.49B | 13.45B | 11.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.46B | 7.09B | 6.70B | 6.63B | 7.28B | 5.80B |
| Total Debt | 10.36B | 11.41B | 3.11B | 1.25B | 892.95M | 658.01M |
| Total Liabilities | 15.75B | 17.93B | 7.76B | 5.29B | 4.53B | 4.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.85B | 10.63B | 10.31B | 9.17B | 8.90B | 7.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.65B | 1.41B | 1.67B | 1.49B | 172.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 2.62B | 2.17B | 2.20B | 1.67B | 1.41B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -7.02B | -533.25M | 354.15M | -293.41M | -2.13B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 4.92B | -1.72B | -2.64B | -325.96M | -733.56M |
MINISO Group Holding Technical Analysis
Negative
16.04
Price Trends
14.72
Negative
16.36
Negative
18.77
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.49
Negative
40.47
Neutral
65.42
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNSO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.77, above the 50-day MA of 14.72, and below the 200-day MA of 18.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MNSO.
MINISO Group Holding Risk Analysis
MINISO Group Holding disclosed 103 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MINISO Group Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Adverse developments affecting financial institutions or the financial services industry in general, such as actual events or concerns involving liquidity, defaults or non-performance by financial institutions or transactional counterparties, could adversely affect our current and projected business operations and our financial condition and results of operations. Q2, 2023
2.
Our business is operated globally. Global inflationary pressures could negatively affect our results of operations and cash flows. Q2, 2023
MINISO Group Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $6.83B | 6.01 | 18.50% | 2.46% | 0.97% | 10.77% | |
67 Neutral | $12.32B | 24.11 | 18.14% | ― | 25.87% | 66.82% | |
66 Neutral | $4.14B | 13.51 | 18.85% | 3.10% | 30.50% | -13.32% | |
66 Neutral | $6.36B | 22.66 | -25.47% | ― | 1.78% | 75.71% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $3.63B | 4.98 | -52.40% | 4.16% | -1.40% | -4.34% | |
52 Neutral | $9.16B | -31.14 | 10.98% | ― | 6.80% | 18.24% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MNSO
MINISO Group Holding
13.31
-4.21
-24.04%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
17.94
-7.72
-30.10%
VIPS
Vipshop
13.85
-0.06
-0.44%
FIVE
Five Below
192.17
64.15
50.11%
W
Wayfair
72.49
27.57
61.38%
ETSY
Etsy
67.05
4.33
6.90%
MINISO Group Holding Corporate Events
MINISO Posts Strong Q1 2026 Growth as Global Store Network Expands
May 27, 2026
MINISO reported unaudited results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, highlighting robust top-line and profit growth across its expanding global footprint. Group revenue rose 28.5% year on year to RMB 5.69 billion, driven by mid-single digit sam...
MINISO Issues Positive Profit Alert as Q1 2026 Profit Triples on AI Investment Gains
May 14, 2026
MINISO Group Holding issued a positive profit alert on May 13, 2026, indicating a strong performance for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, with preliminary unaudited figures pointing to revenue of RMB5.68–5.73 billion, up 28–29% year o...
MINISO Reports Stable Share Base and New RSU Grants in April 2026 Monthly Equity Return
May 8, 2026
MINISO Group Holding filed a Form 6-K on May 8, 2026, submitting its monthly return of equity movements for the period ended April 30, 2026 to regulators in the United States and Hong Kong. The filing shows no change in its authorised share capita...
MINISO Sets June 18, 2026 AGM and Files 2025 Annual Reports in U.S. and Hong Kong
Apr 27, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited, a global value retailer of trendy lifestyle products sold under its MINISO and TOP TOY brands, has built a broad international store network since its first mainland China outlet opened in 2013. The company focuses on...
MINISO Adjusts Equity-Linked Securities and Call Spread Terms After 2025 Final Dividend
Apr 22, 2026
On April 21, 2026, MINISO Group Holding Limited announced adjustments to the exercise prices and share quantities of its previously issued equity-linked securities and associated call spread instruments, following board approval on March 31, 2026 ...
MINISO Reports April 1 NYSE Share Buyback Under Ongoing Repurchase Mandate
Apr 9, 2026
MINISO Group Holding reported in an April 9, 2026 filing that it had no change in its total issued ordinary shares on April 1, 2026, maintaining 1,238,960,393 shares outstanding in Hong Kong. However, it disclosed that 61,584 ordinary shares, repr...
MINISO Extends Hong Kong Share Buybacks as 2025 Results Filed
Apr 1, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited, a Chinese value-focused lifestyle and household goods retailer listed in Hong Kong and the U.S., reported no change in its total issued share capital on March 30, 2026, despite active buyback activity. The company con...
MINISO Details March 18 NYSE Share Buyback Under Ongoing Repurchase Program
Mar 25, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited, the China-based lifestyle retailer listed in Hong Kong under stock code 09896 and on the New York Stock Exchange, reported no change to its total issued share capital on March 18, 2026, with 1,238,960,393 ordinary sha...
MINISO Continues NYSE Buybacks Under 10b5-1 Plan in Mid-March 2026
Mar 19, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited, the China-based lifestyle retailer listed in Hong Kong under stock code 09896 and on the NYSE, reported no change to its total issued share capital on March 13, 2026, with 1,237,564,177 ordinary shares outstanding. Th...
MINISO Steps Up NYSE Buybacks as 2025 Preliminary Results and Board Meeting Near
Mar 13, 2026
MINISO Group Holding filed a March 2026 Form 6-K indicating several Hong Kong “Next Day Disclosure Returns” and an inside-information announcement on its preliminary financial performance for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, al...
MINISO Details Early-March 2026 Share Buybacks Under Ongoing Repurchase Mandate
Mar 12, 2026
MINISO Group Holding disclosed a series of Hong Kong Next Day Disclosure Returns and a March Form 6-K filing detailing changes in its share capital structure during early March 2026. On March 5, 2026, the company repurchased 55,552 ordinary shares...
MINISO Details March Share Buybacks and February Equity Movements in Latest SEC Filing
Mar 6, 2026
MINISO Group Holding disclosed a series of routine equity and share movement filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on March 6, 2026, covering Hong Kong regulatory returns through early March and a monthly return for February 202...
MINISO Discloses February 25 Share Buyback on NYSE Under Ongoing Repurchase Mandate
Mar 2, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited reported in a March 2, 2026 filing that it had repurchased 50,768 ordinary shares, represented by 12,692 ADSs, on February 25, 2026 U.S. time under its existing share repurchase program on the New York Stock Exchange. ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.