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National Vision Holdings Inc (EYE)
NASDAQ:EYE
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National Vision Holdings
(NASDAQ:EYE)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$23.50
▼(-14.23% Downside)
National Vision Holdings' overall stock score is primarily influenced by its strong earnings call performance, which reflects strategic growth initiatives and positive future outlook. However, financial performance challenges, particularly in profitability and high debt reliance, weigh heavily on the score. Mixed technical indicators and poor valuation metrics further contribute to a moderate overall score.
Positive Factors
Managed Care Business Growth
The strong growth in the managed care segment indicates a robust demand for services, which is a positive structural trend that can drive sustained revenue growth over the long term.
Brand Revitalization
Revitalizing the brand and launching new initiatives can enhance customer engagement and loyalty, leading to long-term competitive advantages and market share gains.
Product Assortment Expansion
Expanding product offerings with high-value items and designer partnerships can attract a broader customer base and improve profit margins, supporting long-term growth.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Ongoing profitability challenges suggest operational inefficiencies that could hinder long-term financial health and limit the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
High Debt Reliance
A high reliance on debt financing can strain financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to weather economic downturns or invest in strategic initiatives.
Decline in Customer Transactions
A decline in customer transactions could indicate weakening demand or competitive pressures, which may affect revenue growth and market position if not addressed.
National Vision Holdings (EYE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.25B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.14M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth-7.25%
EPS Growth82.63%
CountryUS
Employees13,411
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.18
Shares Outstanding79,196,380
10 Day Avg. Volume2,409,453
30 Day Avg. Volume2,137,846
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)1.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio21.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.34
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.29
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.28
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$28.50Price Target Upside4.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
National Vision Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNational Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Owned & Host and Legacy. It offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products; provides eye exams through its America's Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, Fred Meyer, and Vista Optical military, as well as Vision Center branded stores; and offers health maintenance organization and optometric services. As of January 1, 2022, the company operated through 1,278 retail stores, as well as various e-commerce websites. National Vision Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneyNational Vision Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of eyewear products, including both prescription and non-prescription glasses, contact lenses, and related accessories. The company operates several well-known retail chains, such as Vision Centers located within Walmart, as well as standalone stores under the brands America's Best Contacts & Eyeglasses and Eyeglass World. Additional revenue streams include eye examinations and vision services offered in-store. Significant partnerships with major eyewear manufacturers and suppliers enable National Vision to offer a diverse product selection at competitive prices, further enhancing its revenue potential. The company's focus on providing value through promotions and bundled offers also attracts a large customer base, contributing to sustained earnings growth.
National Vision Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong performance in Q2 with significant growth in managed care, the success of new brand initiatives, and improved product assortment. However, challenges persist with declining transactions, increased SG&A expenses, and macroeconomic uncertainties. Despite these challenges, the positive developments and strategic initiatives position the company well for future growth.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Q2 Performance
National Vision delivered the highest second quarter results seen in recent years with a 10th consecutive quarter of positive comp store sales growth. Adjusted comp store sales growth reached 5.9% and adjusted EPS was $0.18, supported by a 69% year-over-year growth in adjusted operating income, resulting in a 180 basis point adjusted operating income margin improvement to 4.9%.
Managed Care Business Growth
The managed care business delivered low double-digit comp growth, bolstered by strong growth in both ticket and traffic. Managed care growth and mix are around the 50% range, and the company continues to see this as a significant tailwind.
Brand Revitalization and New Initiatives
National Vision introduced new branding and launched a transformational campaign for America's Best. A new CRM platform is being implemented to attract new customers and retain existing ones, with the goal of creating new personalized customer journeys.
Expansion of Product Assortment
The company is expanding its frame assortment priced over $99 to approximate 40% this year, introducing new designer partnerships such as Jimmy Choo and HUGO BOSS, which are performing well with both cash pay and managed care customers.
Eyeglass World Positive Performance
Eyeglass World saw its best first half performance since 2021 with positive comps at 2.8%. A strategic decision to modify the doctor model in Florida is expected to enhance patient experience and provide greater access to care.
Negative Updates
Decline in Customer Transactions
Overall customer transactions declined by 0.4% as the company anniversaried last year's promotions. Traffic trends in the cash pay cohort were not as resilient, although average ticket gains helped offset the decline.
Higher SG&A Expenses
Adjusted SG&A increased primarily due to higher variable compensation expenses related to revenue and profitability performance, as well as higher health care costs. As a percentage of revenue, total adjusted SG&A deleveraged 20 basis points.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
The guidance for the second half of the year remains cautious due to continued uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. The company is prudent in not incorporating unproven benefits from new CRM and brand assets into their guidance.
Company Guidance
In the National Vision Holdings Q2 2025 earnings call, the company reported substantial growth and provided updated guidance reflecting a positive outlook for the year. The quarter marked the 10th consecutive period of positive comp store sales growth, with a notable increase of 5.9% and an adjusted EPS of $0.18, underpinned by a 69% year-over-year rise in adjusted operating income. This performance led to a 180 basis point improvement in adjusted operating income margin, reaching 4.9%. The growth was attributed to strategic pricing actions, enhanced product assortment, and improved customer experiences, contributing to low double-digit comp growth in the managed care business and positive growth in the cash pay segment. Consequently, the company raised its full-year revenue forecast to between $1.93 billion and $1.97 billion, with expectations of adjusted operating income between $85 million to $95 million and adjusted EPS ranging from $0.62 to $0.70. This upward revision reflects confidence in ongoing initiatives despite potential macroeconomic uncertainties.National Vision Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
National Vision Holdings is facing profitability challenges despite slight revenue growth. The balance sheet shows a high reliance on debt, and while cash flow generation is improving, it is not sufficient to cover net losses. The company needs to address operational inefficiencies to improve margins and reduce debt reliance.Income Statement
National Vision Holdings has shown a slight revenue growth in the TTM period with a 1.87% increase. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin remains stable, but the declining EBIT and net profit margins suggest operational challenges.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 0.96, indicating a significant reliance on debt financing. The return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's current unprofitability. However, the equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
There is a positive growth in free cash flow, with a 22.86% increase in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests that cash flow is not fully covering the net losses.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.89B | 1.82B | 2.13B | 2.01B | 2.08B | 1.71B |
| Gross Profit | 1.11B | 1.06B | 1.13B | 1.08B | 1.17B | 925.14M |
| EBITDA | 108.52M | 89.58M | 53.12M | 161.23M | 272.03M | 178.59M |
| Net Income | -14.15M | -28.50M | -65.90M | 42.12M | 128.24M | 36.28M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.97B | 2.01B | 2.17B | 2.29B | 2.29B | 2.33B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 48.47M | 73.95M | 149.90M | 229.43M | 305.80M | 373.90M |
| Total Debt | 719.34M | 816.03M | 923.46M | 1.00B | 973.25M | 1.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.12B | 1.19B | 1.34B | 1.39B | 1.37B | 1.43B |
| Stockholders Equity | 850.58M | 816.33M | 829.42M | 901.11M | 925.98M | 906.50M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 56.74M | 38.14M | 58.26M | 5.65M | 163.42M | 158.16M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 144.70M | 133.65M | 173.03M | 119.20M | 258.94M | 234.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -90.97M | -96.09M | -115.82M | -110.89M | -92.90M | -76.41M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -184.73M | -113.34M | -136.81M | -84.56M | -234.32M | 176.28M |
National Vision Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
27.40
Price Trends
24.30
Positive
22.68
Positive
17.21
Positive
Market Momentum
1.02
Negative
65.46
Neutral
87.60
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EYE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 27.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.40, above the 50-day MA of 24.30, and above the 200-day MA of 17.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.60 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EYE.
National Vision Holdings Risk Analysis
National Vision Holdings disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Vision Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
National Vision Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | 24.02B | 20.68 | 46.14% | ― | 2.94% | 4.57% | |
77 Outperform | 7.27B | 21.93 | 25.38% | 2.77% | 10.93% | -10.89% | |
76 Outperform | 1.62B | 35.05 | 9.66% | ― | 10.68% | 37.84% | |
73 Outperform | 1.53B | 8.36 | 25.43% | ― | -0.38% | 35.78% | |
63 Neutral | 5.52B | 7.96 | -47.03% | 3.10% | -0.18% | -18.95% | |
54 Neutral | $2.25B | ― | -1.77% | ― | -7.25% | 82.63% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
EYE
National Vision Holdings
27.40
16.49
151.15%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
25.84
-5.26
-16.91%
SBH
Sally Beauty
15.51
1.94
14.30%
ULTA
Ulta Beauty
539.48
150.36
38.64%
RVLV
Revolve Group
22.06
-2.72
-10.98%
MNSO
MINISO Group Holding
22.29
5.29
31.12%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.