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Dunelm Group
(OTC:DNLMY)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$13.00
▲(7.26% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:09/11/26
The score is driven by solid financial performance and a favorable valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield), reinforced by a mostly positive earnings call highlighting cash generation and market share gains. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (downtrend/negative MACD) and fundamental risks around leverage and cost pressures that contributed to flat earnings.
Positive Factors
Steady Revenue and Market Share Growth
Consistent sales growth alongside market-share gains indicates Dunelm is expanding within the UK homewares market rather than relying only on industry growth. This supports durable customer relevance, strengthens scale economics, and provides a foundation for continued revenue growth.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
The higher debt-to-equity position reduces balance-sheet flexibility and can constrain future investment or shareholder distributions if trading weakens. Although current net debt metrics are targeted, the longer-term leverage trend remains a structural financial risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Steady Revenue and Market Share Growth
Consistent sales growth alongside market-share gains indicates Dunelm is expanding within the UK homewares market rather than relying only on industry growth. This supports durable customer relevance, strengthens scale economics, and provides a foundation for continued revenue growth.
Read all positive factors
Dunelm Group (DNLMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.35B
Dividend Yield7.43%
Average Volume (3M)9.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.3
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth6.93%
EPS Growth3.60%
CountryUS
Employees12,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.78
Shares Outstanding201,621,230
10 Day Avg. Volume29
30 Day Avg. Volume9
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-8.52
Price to Book (P/B)11.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.93
P/FCF Ratio7.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.13
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.44
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.61
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Dunelm Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dunelm Group plc operates as a leading retailer of homewares across the United Kingdom. Its extensive product portfolio caters to nearly every aspect of home living. The company offers a broad selection of furniture and beds, encompassing items fo...
Dunelm Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 08, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive: Dunelm delivered sales growth, market share gains, gross margin expansion, strong cash generation, digital growth, improved customer satisfaction, and higher dividends despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. The main negatives were flat profit and earnings, inflationary and operating cost pressures, weaker third-party home delivery, fewer store openings than desired, execution gaps in some digital and social channels, and a mixed Q1 start.Positive Updates
Sales Growth and Market Share Gains
FY 2026 total sales increased 3.1% to GBP 1,825 million. Dunelm gained 10 basis points of market share year on year, reaching 7.9% of the GBP 25 billion U.K. homewares and furniture market.
Negative Updates
Flat Profit and Earnings
Profit before tax was GBP 211 million, flat year on year, despite sales growth. PBT margin decreased by 30 basis points to 11.6%, while diluted earnings per share was 76.8 pence, also flat year on year.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Sales Growth and Market Share Gains
FY 2026 total sales increased 3.1% to GBP 1,825 million. Dunelm gained 10 basis points of market share year on year, reaching 7.9% of the GBP 25 billion U.K. homewares and furniture market.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company said its net debt to EBITDA ratio was 0.3 times, within its targeted range of 0.2 to 0.6 times; Capital expenditure of GBP 43 million was in line with guidance; business rates would provide an annualized tailwind into next year; Made to Measure’s technology investment would support MTM's double-digit growth moving forward; operational and technology-led changes were in the plan to support improvement in home delivery; and planned scarcity will continue to be a key factor.Dunelm Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.82B | 1.77B | 1.71B | 1.64B | 1.58B |
| Gross Profit | 868.22M | 928.30M | 883.30M | 820.90M | 809.40M |
| EBITDA | 304.91M | 304.20M | 295.10M | 277.90M | 297.60M |
| Net Income | 154.90M | 156.30M | 151.20M | 151.90M | 171.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 752.23M | 741.50M | 682.00M | 696.80M | 737.90M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 22.26M | 30.00M | 23.40M | 46.30M | 30.20M |
| Total Debt | 383.90M | 377.70M | 326.60M | 334.10M | 330.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 604.63M | 622.70M | 544.10M | 559.30M | 559.60M |
| Stockholders Equity | 147.60M | 118.80M | 137.90M | 137.50M | 178.30M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 233.99M | 220.70M | 199.90M | 218.80M | 227.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 265.57M | 255.90M | 232.30M | 240.60M | 251.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -42.53M | -65.90M | -38.30M | -20.70M | -41.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -230.60M | -183.00M | -217.30M | -204.40M | -309.70M |
Dunelm Group Technical Analysis
Positive
12.12
Price Trends
10.75
Positive
10.84
Positive
10.91
Positive
Market Momentum
0.32
Negative
62.11
Neutral
29.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DNLMY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.90, above the 50-day MA of 10.75, and above the 200-day MA of 10.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DNLMY.
Dunelm Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $30.61B | 26.25 | 57.79% | 1.13% | 2.24% | 7.35% | |
70 Outperform | $2.35B | 11.29 | 99.65% | 7.43% | 6.93% | 3.60% | |
67 Neutral | $2.15B | 15.95 | 31.18% | ― | ― | ― | |
62 Neutral | $16.45B | -48.88 | 11.48% | ― | 7.46% | -2.70% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $1.80B | 25.64 | 17.23% | 4.92% | 5.44% | -3.28% | |
54 Neutral | $2.85B | 25.51 | 184.91% | ― | 3.35% | 3.38% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
DNLMY
Dunelm Group
11.62
-1.87
-13.84%
WSM
Williams-Sonoma
259.86
64.24
32.84%
RH
RH
150.79
-24.66
-14.06%
W
Wayfair
120.12
17.72
17.30%
ARHS
Arhaus
12.71
3.34
35.67%
BOBS
Bob's Discount Furniture, Inc.
16.43
-0.59
-3.47%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.