Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.92B
• Dividend Yield: 1.18%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.70M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.31
• Revenue Growth: -3.57%
• EPS Growth: -17.43%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.76
• Shares Outstanding: 66,475,746
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,215,914
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,704,642
• PEG Ratio: 1.67
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.01
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.02
• 1Y Price Target: $52.82
• Price Target Upside: 20.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $51.00 ▲(15.91%Upside)

The overall stock score of 75 reflects Academy Sports and Outdoors' strong valuation and positive technical indicators, which are offset by mixed earnings call sentiment and financial performance challenges. The company's attractive valuation and effective cash flow management are significant strengths, while declining sales and high leverage pose risks.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Valuation stands at a relatively inexpensive ~7.6x NTM P/E, the balance sheet is clean, and cash generation remains strong (~$268m in the last 12 months), allowing ASO to pursue a long-term investment cycle to improve its fundamentals.

Loyalty Program

ASO enrolled 11M members shortly after launching its loyalty program, and there's potential for increased frequency and spending among the bottom 90% of customers.

Product Expansion

ASO has expanded its depth and breadth of Nike apparel by an average of ~20% in store, which could support ASO’s ability to receive more premium allocations from new and existing brands.

Negative Factors

Comparable Sales

A sustained inflection into positive comps proves elusive as May comps decelerate to -LSD% again, despite the Jordan brand launch and new store expansion.

Consumer Traffic

Overall traffic is down by 5.2%, with traffic outside of Quintiles 4 & 5 falling significantly, indicating potential challenges with the core customer.

Earnings

ASO reported 1Q25 adj. EPS of $0.76, below the consensus estimate of $0.90, and the company lowered FY25 guidance at the midpoint.

Academy Sports and Outdoors Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a sporting goods and outdoor recreational products retailer in the United States. The company sells coolers and drinkware, camping accessories, camping equipment, sunglasses, backpacks, and sports bags; marine equipment and fishing rods, reels, baits, and equipment; firearms, ammunition, archery and archery equipment, camouflage apparel, waders, shooting accessories, optics, airguns, and hunting equipment; team sports equipment, including baseball, football, basketball, soccer, golf, racket sports, and volleyball; fitness equipment and accessories, and nutrition supplies; and patio furniture, outdoor cooking, wheeled goods, trampolines, playsets, watersports, and pet equipment, as well as electronics products, watches, consumables, batteries, etc. It also offers outdoor apparel, seasonal apparel, denim, work apparel, graphic t-shirts, and accessories; boys and girls outdoor and athletic apparel; sporting apparel and apparel for fitness; professional and collegiate team licensed apparel and accessories; casual shoes and slippers, work and western boots, youth footwear, socks, and hunting and seasonal footwear; and boys and girls athletic footwear, running shoes, athletic lifestyle and training shoes, team and specialty sports footwear, and slides. The company sells its products under the Academy Sports + Outdoors, Magellan Outdoors, BCG, O'rageous, Outdoor Gourmet, and Freely brand names. As of June 14, 2022, it operated 260 retail locations in 16 contiguous states. The company also sells merchandise to customers through the academy.com website. Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Katy, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Academy Sports and Outdoors generates revenue primarily through the sale of sporting goods, outdoor products, and related apparel and footwear. The company's key revenue streams include in-store sales from its network of retail locations and e-commerce sales through its website. Academy Sports and Outdoors leverages strategic partnerships with well-known brands and suppliers to offer a diverse product selection, which attracts a wide customer base. Additionally, the company benefits from private label brands that contribute to higher profit margins. Seasonal promotions, merchandising strategies, and customer loyalty programs further enhance sales and drive revenue growth.

Academy Sports and Outdoors Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Academy Sports and Outdoors shows a balanced financial performance with good cash flow management and profitability. The main challenges include declining revenues and high leverage risk. The company maintains satisfactory profitability despite these challenges.

Income Statement

Academy Sports and Outdoors has experienced declining revenues over the past few years. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have remained relatively stable, indicating effective cost management. However, the decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins suggests some operational inefficiencies. Despite this, the company maintains a satisfactory level of profitability in a challenging retail environment.

Balance Sheet

The company has managed to improve its equity position over the years, with a positive trajectory in stockholders' equity. However, the debt-to-equity ratio remains high, indicating potential leverage risk. The equity ratio shows a solid level of asset financing through equity, highlighting financial stability improvements.

Cash Flow

Academy Sports and Outdoors has shown strong operating cash flow relative to net income, indicating good cash generation efficiency. The free cash flow remains positive, although the growth rate has slowed, reflecting prudent capital management. The company manages its cash flows effectively, ensuring liquidity and operational continuity.

Breakdown
Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
5.93B	6.16B	6.40B	6.77B	5.69B
	Gross Profit
2.01B	2.11B	2.21B	2.35B	1.73B
	EBIT
538.64M	677.86M	846.55M	907.95M	420.40M
	EBITDA
693.17M	820.14M	971.51M	1.00B	534.95M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
418.45M	519.19M	628.00M	671.38M	308.76M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
288.93M	347.92M	337.14M	486.00M	377.60M
	Total Assets
4.90B	4.68B	4.60B	4.58B	4.38B
	Total Debt
1.79B	1.70B	1.77B	1.85B	2.02B
	Net Debt
1.50B	1.35B	1.43B	1.36B	1.64B
	Total Liabilities
2.90B	2.72B	2.97B	3.12B	3.27B
	Stockholders Equity
2.00B	1.95B	1.63B	1.47B	1.11B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
328.49M	327.49M	443.20M	597.25M	970.33M
	Operating Cash Flow
528.08M	535.78M	552.00M	673.26M	1.01B
	Investing Cash Flow
-186.12M	-206.14M	-108.81M	-76.02M	-33.14M
	Financing Cash Flow
-400.95M	-318.87M	-592.05M	-488.85M	-750.23M

Academy Sports and Outdoors Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 44.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.01, above the 50-day MA of 41.06, and below the 200-day MA of 49.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ASO.

Academy Sports and Outdoors Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DKS	77 Outperform	$13.89B	12.40	40.22%	2.79%	3.33%	15.47%
ASO	75 Outperform	$2.92B	8.11	20.14%	1.18%	-3.57%	-17.43%
BBY	71 Outperform	$14.27B	16.50	30.21%	5.63%	-3.23%	-28.11%
ETSY	68 Neutral	$5.86B	39.89	-39.97%	―	2.18%	-32.87%
Sector *	65 Neutral	£1.80B	11.53	6.20%	3.27%	0.84%	-12.81%
SPWH	59 Neutral	$141.01M	―	-15.67%	―	-4.92%	-13.73%
BGFV	46 Neutral	$27.43M	―	-39.57%	4.17%	-8.85%	-397.36%

Academy Sports and Outdoors Corporate Events

Academy Sports Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results

On June 10, 2025, Academy Sports and Outdoors reported its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, ending May 3, 2025. The company experienced a 0.9% decline in net sales and a 3.7% drop in comparable sales, although eCommerce sales grew by 10.2%. Academy opened five new stores and launched the Jordan Brand, contributing to sequential monthly improvements despite economic challenges. The company revised its annual sales guidance to account for potential inflationary impacts, while continuing to focus on tariff mitigation and market share growth through its value-oriented strategy. The company returned $108 million to shareholders and plans to open 20 to 25 new stores in fiscal 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASO) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Academy Sports and Outdoors stock, see the ASO Stock Forecast page.

Academy Sports Approves Governance Changes at Annual Meeting

On June 5, 2025, Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting where stockholders approved significant amendments to the company’s governance structure. These included removing supermajority voting requirements, declassifying the board for annual director elections starting in 2026, and adding a provision to exculpate certain officers from liability under specific circumstances. Additionally, the stockholders elected three Class II directors, ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor, and approved executive compensation for fiscal year 2024. Monique Picou was appointed to the Nominating and Governance Committee of the Board.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASO) stock is a Buy with a $72.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Academy Sports and Outdoors stock, see the ASO Stock Forecast page.

Academy Sports and Outdoors Board Member Resigns

On May 5, 2025, Scott Boatwright resigned from his position as an independent Class III member of the Board of Directors at Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., effective immediately. Following his resignation, the Board reduced its size from eleven to ten members. The resignation was not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations or policies.