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Academy Sports and Outdoors
(NASDAQ:ASO)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$66.00
▲(51.79% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/15/26
ASO scores well on valuation and a constructive earnings outlook (raised EPS and margin guidance), supported by a strong technical uptrend. The main constraints are normalized/eroded margins versus prior peak years, moderate leverage for a retailer, and momentum indicators that are currently overbought, increasing near-term volatility risk.
Positive Factors
E-commerce and customer engagement
Strong digital growth and expanding loyalty engagement deepen Academy’s relationship with customers beyond the store base. Higher online penetration, AI search, and a large membership pool can support repeat purchasing, better marketing efficiency, and durable omnichannel growth.
Negative Factors
Margin normalization
Profitability remains positive but materially below prior peak levels, showing that margin recovery is not yet fully established. The large tariff-related Q2 benefit will not recur, leaving future earnings more exposed to promotional intensity, pricing pressure, and operating costs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
E-commerce and customer engagement
Strong digital growth and expanding loyalty engagement deepen Academy’s relationship with customers beyond the store base. Higher online penetration, AI search, and a large membership pool can support repeat purchasing, better marketing efficiency, and durable omnichannel growth.
Read all positive factors
Academy Sports and Outdoors Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Stores
Indicates the number of retail locations, providing insight into the company's market presence and expansion strategy. More stores can signal growth and increased customer reach.
Indicates the number of retail locations, providing insight into the company's market presence and expansion strategy. More stores can signal growth and increased customer reach.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAcademy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.72B
Dividend Yield0.96%
Average Volume (3M)1.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.9
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth3.68%
EPS Growth12.68%
CountryUS
Employees22,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.12
Shares Outstanding61,578,890
10 Day Avg. Volume1,418,061
30 Day Avg. Volume1,578,989
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.72
Price to Book (P/B)1.69
Price to Sales (P/S)0.61
P/FCF Ratio16.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.76
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.48
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$57.55Price Target Upside32.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)6.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.32B
Academy Sports and Outdoors Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, operates as a significant retailer of sporting goods and outdoor recreational products throughout the United States. The company offers a vast and diverse inventory, encompassing...
How the Company Makes Money
Academy Sports + Outdoors generates revenue primarily by selling merchandise to consumers through its physical stores and online channels. Its core revenue streams come from product category sales such as (1) sports and recreation goods (e.g., equ...
Academy Sports and Outdoors Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 09, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly constructive. Academy reported sales, earnings, e-commerce, credit-card, cash-flow, new-store, and strategic-initiative progress, reaffirmed sales guidance, and raised gross-margin and EPS guidance. These strengths were tempered by a slightly negative Q2 comp, worsening traffic among households earning less than $50,000, footwear and softgoods pressure, higher promotional activity, elevated fuel and freight costs, and the non-recurring nature of tariff-refund benefits. Overall, the positive operating and financial developments significantly outweighed the stated challenges.Positive Updates
Second-Quarter Sales Growth and Guidance Reaffirmed
Second-quarter sales were $1.6 billion, up 3% in total, while full-year sales guidance was reaffirmed at $6.23 billion-$6.36 billion, representing growth of 3%-5%. Comparable sales guidance remains flat to +2% for fiscal 2026.
Negative Updates
Slightly Negative Second-Quarter Comparable Sales
Second-quarter comparable sales declined 0.4%. May and June sales were up 2% in total but down 1% on a comp basis. The two-year comp stack for Q2 remained slightly negative.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Second-Quarter Sales Growth and Guidance Reaffirmed
Second-quarter sales were $1.6 billion, up 3% in total, while full-year sales guidance was reaffirmed at $6.23 billion-$6.36 billion, representing growth of 3%-5%. Comparable sales guidance remains flat to +2% for fiscal 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 sales guidance of $6.23 billion-$6.36 billion, or growth of 3%-5%, and comp sales of flat to +2%; raised gross margin rate guidance to 35.5%-36.0%; affirmed net income guidance of $390 million-$415 million; raised earnings per share guidance to $6.05-$6.45 and adjusted earnings per share to $6.50-$6.90; and expects adjusted free cash flow of $300 million-$350 million. At the midpoint, total sales are expected to be up 4%, comp sales to be up approximately 1%, gross margin expansion of 100 basis points, net income to grow by approximately 7%, and EPS growth of over 12% when compared to fiscal year 2025. The company expects fall gross margin roughly flat, 22-24 stores this year, 11 additional stores in Q3, and continued share repurchases, though not to the same level as the first half of the year; its long-range plan calls for a 5% sales CAGR, double digit EPS growth, and high single digit unitary growth over the next five years.Academy Sports and Outdoors Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.19B | 6.05B | 5.93B | 6.16B | 6.40B | 6.77B |
| Gross Profit | 2.22B | 2.11B | 2.01B | 2.11B | 2.21B | 2.35B |
| EBITDA | 723.48M | 645.14M | 693.17M | 820.14M | 971.52M | 1.01B |
| Net Income | 395.85M | 376.77M | 418.45M | 519.19M | 628.00M | 671.38M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.51B | 5.28B | 4.90B | 4.68B | 4.60B | 4.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 298.21M | 330.32M | 288.93M | 347.92M | 337.14M | 486.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.97B | 1.89B | 1.79B | 1.70B | 1.77B | 1.84B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.33B | 3.11B | 2.90B | 2.72B | 2.97B | 3.12B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.18B | 2.17B | 2.00B | 1.95B | 1.63B | 1.47B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 330.88M | 222.13M | 328.49M | 327.49M | 443.20M | 597.25M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 547.77M | 434.80M | 528.08M | 535.78M | 552.00M | 673.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -175.60M | -172.04M | -186.12M | -206.14M | -108.81M | -76.02M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -374.82M | -221.37M | -400.95M | -318.87M | -592.05M | -488.85M |
Academy Sports and Outdoors Technical Analysis
Positive
43.48
Price Trends
50.04
Positive
49.29
Positive
52.42
Positive
Market Momentum
3.09
Negative
72.65
Negative
89.34
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.27, below the 50-day MA of 50.04, and below the 200-day MA of 52.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.65 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.34 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASO.
Academy Sports and Outdoors Risk Analysis
Academy Sports and Outdoors disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Academy Sports and Outdoors reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Academy Sports and Outdoors Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $2.68T | 19.68 | 30.50% | ― | 15.77% | 88.63% | |
72 Outperform | $12.29B | 19.88 | 27.73% | ― | 25.56% | 126.16% | |
69 Neutral | $3.72B | 9.86 | 18.38% | 0.96% | 3.68% | 12.68% | |
62 Neutral | $17.41B | 17.97 | 37.64% | 2.84% | 3.53% | -10.44% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $12.87B | 15.26 | 14.99% | 3.43% | 53.54% | -35.49% | |
51 Neutral | $41.88M | -0.87 | -26.33% | ― | 0.84% | -26.47% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors
60.33
11.40
23.31%
AMZN
Amazon
248.00
21.03
9.27%
DKS
Dick's Sporting Goods
144.67
-78.46
-35.16%
TSCO
Tractor Supply
33.42
-21.62
-39.28%
FIVE
Five Below
223.24
62.99
39.31%
SPWH
Sportsman's Warehouse
1.07
-1.64
-60.52%
Academy Sports and Outdoors Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Academy Sports Posts Strong Q2 Growth, Raises EPS Outlook
Positive
Sep 9, 2026
Academy Sports and Outdoors reported on September 9, 2026 that net sales for the second quarter ended August 1, 2026 rose 3.0% to $1.65 billion, with e-commerce revenue up 12.8%, while comparable sales declined 0.4%. Diluted GAAP EPS increased 17....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.