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Dollar General
(NYSE:DG)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$141.00
▲(15.03% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/03/26
DG’s score is anchored by improving fundamentals and a strong, guidance-raising earnings update (including resumed buybacks), plus a reasonable valuation (P/E ~15.4 and ~2.0% yield). Offsetting these positives, the technical picture is weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD), and leverage remains a constraint despite balance sheet improvement.
Positive Factors
Traffic and Market Share Gains
Consecutive traffic growth and market-share gains indicate that Dollar General continues attracting customers and strengthening its position in value retail. Broader gains across consumables and non-consumables support recurring demand, better store productivity, and a durable foundation for sales growth.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Debt remains high relative to equity even after balance-sheet improvement, limiting financial flexibility during periods of weaker sales or margin pressure. Meaningful leverage can also compete with store investment and shareholder returns for available cash, making sustained deleveraging important to long-term resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Traffic and Market Share Gains
Consecutive traffic growth and market-share gains indicate that Dollar General continues attracting customers and strengthening its position in value retail. Broader gains across consumables and non-consumables support recurring demand, better store productivity, and a durable foundation for sales growth.
Read all positive factors
Dollar General Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability.
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDollar General (DG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$29.60B
Dividend Yield1.79%
Average Volume (3M)2.25M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.1
Beta (1Y)-0.01
Revenue Growth4.77%
EPS Growth42.79%
CountryUS
Employees194,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.73
Shares Outstanding220,616,790
10 Day Avg. Volume1,948,337
30 Day Avg. Volume2,248,603
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.61
Price to Book (P/B)3.71
Price to Sales (P/S)0.74
P/FCF Ratio13.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.11
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$147.22Price Target Upside20.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)7.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$44.52B
Dollar General Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dollar General Corporation is a prominent discount retail chain that offers a wide array of merchandise across the southern, southwestern, Midwestern, and eastern regions of the United States. Its extensive product assortment primarily features co...
How the Company Makes Money
Dollar General primarily makes money by selling merchandise directly to customers in its retail stores. Its revenue model is based on high-frequency, value-oriented purchases—especially in consumables—which drive regular store traffic and repeat b...
Dollar General Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall. Dollar General reported broad-based sales, traffic, market share, margin, operating profit, EPS, inventory, and cash-flow improvements; raised fiscal 2026 guidance; and announced an earlier-than-planned resumption of share repurchases. Management also described continued progress in remodels, delivery, digital initiatives, store expansion, shrink reduction, and productivity. The main challenges were financially strained customers, elevated fuel and transportation costs, expected modest SG&A deleverage, the reduced contribution from tariff refunds in the second half, and a difficult Q4 comparison.Positive Updates
Second-Quarter Results Exceeded Expectations
Management said balanced top-line growth, healthy operating margin expansion, and strong double-digit EPS growth each exceeded expectations, even before considering tariff refunds.
Negative Updates
Consumer Financial Pressure
Management said core customers remain financially constrained due to stubborn inflation and higher and more volatile fuel prices. Low-income customers are coming more often but buying less per trip, while middle- and higher-income customers continue trading down toward value offerings.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Second-Quarter Results Exceeded Expectations
Management said balanced top-line growth, healthy operating margin expansion, and strong double-digit EPS growth each exceeded expectations, even before considering tariff refunds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For fiscal 2026, Dollar General expects net sales growth in the range of 4%-4.3%, same store sales growth in the range of 2.5%-2.9%, and EPS in the range of $7.80-$8, including the approximate $0.25 Q2 benefit from tariff refunds after related reinvestments; EPS guidance assumes an effective tax rate of approximately 24.5% and up to $700 million of share repurchases in the back half of the year. The company expects inventory to grow at a rate below its sales growth, gross margin expansion in the second half, modest SG&A deleverage in 2026, and no material impact from tariff refunds after related reinvestments in the second half, while capital spending and real estate projects remain unchanged from previously stated amounts. It expects 2,000 Project Renovate remodels, 2,250 Project Elevate remodels, 450 new stores in the U.S., approximately 10 stores in Mexico, and shrink and damages to contribute about 50 basis points of incremental gross margin expansion off the 2025 base.Dollar General Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 43.64B | 42.72B | 40.61B | 38.69B | 37.84B | 34.22B |
| Gross Profit | 13.60B | 13.10B | 12.02B | 11.72B | 11.82B | 10.81B |
| EBITDA | 3.52B | 3.24B | 2.69B | 3.30B | 4.05B | 3.86B |
| Net Income | 1.70B | 1.51B | 1.13B | 1.66B | 2.42B | 2.40B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 32.17B | 30.96B | 31.13B | 30.80B | 29.08B | 26.33B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.59B | 1.14B | 932.58M | 537.28M | 381.58M | 344.83M |
| Total Debt | 15.61B | 15.72B | 17.46B | 18.09B | 17.66B | 14.25B |
| Total Liabilities | 22.88B | 22.45B | 23.72B | 24.05B | 23.54B | 20.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.29B | 8.51B | 7.41B | 6.75B | 5.54B | 6.26B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.70B | 2.39B | 1.69B | 691.58M | 423.97M | 1.80B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.32B | 3.63B | 3.00B | 2.39B | 1.98B | 2.87B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.61B | -1.24B | -1.31B | -1.69B | -1.56B | -1.07B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.45B | -2.19B | -1.29B | -542.07M | -392.46M | -2.83B |
Dollar General Technical Analysis
Positive
122.58
Price Trends
124.97
Positive
121.11
Positive
125.11
Positive
Market Momentum
3.29
Negative
69.14
Neutral
81.91
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 122.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 126.49, below the 50-day MA of 124.97, and below the 200-day MA of 125.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.91 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DG.
Dollar General Risk Analysis
Dollar General disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dollar General reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Dollar General Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $5.50B | 20.41 | 14.58% | ― | 14.43% | 29.33% | |
68 Neutral | $69.96B | 15.74 | 26.66% | 3.01% | 1.95% | 12.49% | |
67 Neutral | $934.60B | 42.53 | 22.74% | 0.83% | 6.16% | 4.00% | |
64 Neutral | $29.60B | 17.09 | 19.56% | 1.79% | 4.77% | 42.79% | |
63 Neutral | $23.45B | 15.30 | 45.58% | ― | -7.85% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
54 Neutral | $37.87B | 34.66 | 17.17% | 2.25% | 1.58% | -53.21% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
DG
Dollar General
139.11
38.06
37.67%
DLTR
Dollar Tree
131.04
30.42
30.23%
KR
Kroger Company
67.87
0.73
1.09%
TGT
Target
158.11
67.53
74.55%
WMT
Walmart
121.12
15.15
14.30%
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
92.63
-28.55
-23.56%
Dollar General Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Dollar General Announces General Counsel Retirement and Transition
Neutral
Aug 28, 2026
Dollar General said that on August 25, 2026, Executive Vice President and General Counsel Rhonda M. Taylor notified the company of her intention to retire, marking a significant leadership change in its legal department. Taylor will move from her ...
Stock BuybackDividends
Dollar General Declares Dividend, Plans Share Repurchases
Positive
Aug 27, 2026
Dollar General announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.59 per share on August 26, 2026, payable on or before October 20, 2026, to shareholders of record as of October 6, 2026. The company also indicated it ex...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.