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Kroger Company (KR) AI Stock Analysis

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KR

Kroger Company

(NYSE:KR)

Select Model
Rating:54.4Neutral
Price Target:$71.00â–²(1.70% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/06/26

KR’s score is primarily weighed down by balance-sheet leverage and thin/volatile profitability despite resilient scale and steady cash generation. The latest earnings call supports the outlook with maintained profit/EPS guidance and strong progress in e-commerce, retail media, and cost savings, but reduced identical sales guidance and ongoing cost/sales headwinds temper the upside. Technically, indicators are neutral, and valuation remains a drag due to the high P/E relative to the business profile.

Positive Factors
Profitable e-commerce growthRapid e-commerce growth combined with improving profitability strengthens Kroger’s omnichannel model and broadens customer access beyond stores. Continued digital adoption can support recurring engagement, improve fulfillment economics, and create a durable platform for additional retail media and loyalty monetization.
Negative Factors
Elevated financial leverageThe reduced equity cushion and elevated leverage make Kroger’s financial position more sensitive to margin pressure or earnings volatility. Higher debt obligations can constrain capital allocation, increase refinancing exposure, and reduce resilience if operating conditions weaken over the next several quarters.

Kroger Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Store Count Indicates the total number of retail locations, highlighting the company's market reach and potential for customer engagement. A growing store count can signal expansion and increased market penetration.

0.00500.001000.001500.002000.002500.00Dec 21Dec 22Dec 23Dec 24Dec 25
Chart Insights

Kroger’s store base has generally shrunk with a brief 2024 uptick then a 2025 drop, reflecting inconsistent store strategy and execution—management concedes it hasn’t opened enough locations and ~20% of stores underperform, creating a self-imposed cap on physical sales growth. The bright spot: a stronger balance sheet, ahead‑of‑plan cost savings and profitable e‑commerce give Kroger optionality to invest rather than retrench, but regaining share will require targeted openings and fixing underperformers to convert digital momentum into sustained total‑company growth.

Data provided by:The Fly

Kroger Company (KR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%KR+5.39%SPY+14.97%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$41.23B
Dividend Yield
2.06%
Average Volume (3M)
6.83M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
37.7
Beta (1Y)
-0.35
Revenue Growth
1.58%
EPS Growth
-53.21%
Country
US
Employees
403,000
Sector
Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength
62
Industry
Grocery Stores

Kroger Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Kroger Co. functions as a significant retail entity throughout the United States, encompassing a varied collection of store formats. Its operations include integrated food and drug stores, which stock a broad range of products from natural and or...

How the Company Makes Money

Kroger primarily makes money by selling consumer goods through its retail stores and digital channels. The largest revenue stream is retail sales of food and everyday essentials, including fresh items (e.g., produce and meat), packaged groceries, bev...

Kroger Company Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 11, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:22.58%|Next Earnings Date:Dec 03, 2026
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was broadly positive on execution and profitability, with strong e-commerce, retail media, private-label brands, cost savings, gross-margin performance, market-share progress, cash flow and balance-sheet flexibility. However, sales growth was weak, full-year identical sales guidance was reduced, and the company faces ongoing pressure from cyclospora, pharmacy changes, consumer budget constraints, shrink, transportation costs and softer fuel margins. The highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights because Kroger maintained its full-year profit and EPS outlook while reporting progress across multiple strategic initiatives.

Positive Updates

Profit Delivery Despite Softer Sales
Adjusted FIFO operating profit was $1.1 billion, and adjusted earnings per diluted share was $1.09, representing 5% growth versus last year. Management said the company delivered the profit it committed to despite a softer top line.

Negative Updates

Soft Identical Sales Growth
Identical sales without fuel grew 0.2%. Sales tracked well through most of the quarter but were affected in the final period by the cyclospora outbreak.

Company Guidance

Kroger lowered full year identical sales without fuel guidance to a new range of 0.2% to 0.8% from its initial range of 1% to 2%, while maintaining adjusted FIFO operating profit guidance of $5 billion to $5.2 billion and adjusted net earnings per diluted share guidance of $5.10 to $5.30; it expects ID sales without fuel to be slightly better in Q3 than in Q4, consistent year over year earnings growth between the third and fourth quarters, cost saving initiatives to build through the second half, FIFO gross margin growth to be positive, on a full year basis, and gross margin to be positive through the second half of the year, with inflation within this 1 to 2.5 range for the balance of the year and below CPI, while the Inflation Reduction Act headwind is projected to accelerate to approximately 150 basis points in the fourth quarter, with no impact on profit in the fourth quarter, or in 2027; fuel margins are expected to be softer than H1, and after repurchasing approximately $1.2 billion of shares under the existing $2 billion authorization, Kroger expects to complete the remaining repurchases during the second half of the year and continues to expect the Giant Eagle transaction to close in 2027.

Kroger Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash generation is a relative strength (TTM operating cash flow ~$6.6B; consistently positive free cash flow), but profitability is structurally thin (TTM EBIT margin ~0.9%, net margin ~1.3%) and earnings have been volatile year-to-year. The main financial constraint is leverage and a reduced equity cushion (TTM debt-to-equity ~4.13x), which increases sensitivity to any margin pressure.

Income Statement

56Neutral

Balance Sheet

44Neutral

Cash Flow

63Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMJan 2026Jan 2025Jan 2024Jan 2023Jan 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue149.33B147.64B147.12B150.04B148.26B137.89B
Gross Profit34.51B34.40B33.40B33.36B31.78B30.35B
EBITDA5.55B5.76B7.64B7.03B7.02B6.05B
Net Income1.08B1.02B2.67B2.16B2.24B1.66B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets49.49B49.94B52.62B50.51B49.62B49.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.68B4.58B5.27B3.10B2.14B2.90B
Total Debt24.16B24.68B25.08B19.25B20.41B20.44B
Total Liabilities43.65B44.01B44.34B38.90B39.61B39.66B
Stockholders Equity5.84B5.93B8.29B11.62B10.04B9.45B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.27B3.35B1.78B2.88B1.23B3.58B
Operating Cash Flow6.60B7.21B5.79B6.79B4.31B6.19B
Investing Cash Flow-4.20B-3.91B-3.23B-3.75B-3.02B-2.61B
Financing Cash Flow-5.67B-3.98B-490.00M-2.17B-2.29B-3.44B

Kroger Company Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price69.81

Price Trends

50DMA62.54Positive
100DMA59.97Positive
200DMA63.44Positive

Market Momentum

MACD2.02Negative
RSI65.53Neutral
STOCH60.50Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 69.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.80, above the 50-day MA of 62.54, and above the 200-day MA of 63.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KR.

Kroger Company Risk Analysis

Kroger Company disclosed 13 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kroger Company reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Production - Risks related to the company’s ability to manufacture goods and services

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Kroger Company Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

KR against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
WMKWMK70Outperform$2.00B19.397.37%1.73%4.06%6.87%
SFMSFM63Neutral$4.66B9.7833.82%―5.25%0.53%
Sector *62Neutral$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
IMKTAIMKTA62Neutral$1.57B15.006.30%0.79%1.02%84.32%
GOGO56Neutral$1.30B-3.27-44.12%―3.97%-8190.34%
KRKR54Neutral$41.04B37.6717.17%2.06%1.58%-53.21%
ACIACI54Neutral$6.12B-438.17-2.78%5.01%2.26%-106.73%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-40%-20%0%20%KRIMKTAWMKSFMGOACIDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
KR and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
KRKroger Company69.814.837.43%
IMKTAIngles Markets Inc83.8910.4814.28%
WMKWeis Markets78.5714.3322.31%
SFMSprouts Farmers Market51.38-31.20-37.78%
GOGrocery Outlet Holding12.851.7215.45%
ACIAlbertsons Companies, Inc.13.18-4.12-23.82%

Kroger Company Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Kroger Announces Senior Notes Offering to Refinance Debt

Positive
Oct 5, 2026

On April 21, 2026, Kroger filed a shelf registration with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, enabling the company to issue an indeterminate amount of securities over time. Under this framework, Kroger has arranged underwriting and pricing a...

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Kroger appoints Mark Ibbotson to lead store operations

Positive
Sep 2, 2026

On August 31, 2026, Kroger appointed veteran retail executive Mark Ibbotson, 63, as Executive Vice President and Chief Store Operations Officer, with his role effective September 14, 2026. The decision was publicly announced in a September 2, 2026 pr...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 05, 2026