Grocery Outlet Holding (GO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.28B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.04M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.61
• Revenue Growth: 7.22%
• EPS Growth: -108.99%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,692
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.21
• Shares Outstanding: 98,103,294
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,624,010
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,039,335
• PEG Ratio: -0.77
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.28
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.35
• P/FCF Ratio: -20.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.60
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 29.73
• 1Y Price Target: $16.25
• Price Target Upside: 33.74% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $13.00 ▲(7.00% Upside)

Grocery Outlet Holding faces significant challenges with profitability and cash flow management, reflected in its financial performance score. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, with the stock trading below key moving averages and showing oversold conditions. Valuation is unattractive due to a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield. The earnings call provided some positive strategic insights, but concerns about sales performance and external factors like SNAP benefits remain.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The consistent revenue growth driven by new store openings and comparable store sales increase highlights the company's ability to expand its market presence and attract more customers, which is crucial for long-term sustainability.

Store Refresh Program

The success of the store refresh program indicates potential for improved customer experience and increased sales, positioning the company for enhanced competitive advantage and long-term growth.

Leadership Additions

The addition of experienced leaders in store operations and supply chain can drive operational improvements and strategic growth, enhancing the company's ability to execute its business model efficiently.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Significant leverage poses financial risks, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage economic downturns, impacting long-term financial health.

Cash Flow Challenges

Decreasing cash flow generation can hinder the company's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives, affecting its financial flexibility and long-term sustainability.

Low Profit Margins

Low profitability margins indicate challenges in converting sales into profits, which can affect the company's ability to reinvest in its business and maintain competitive positioning over time.

Grocery Outlet Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is a discount grocery retailer operating primarily in the United States. The company focuses on providing customers with brand-name grocery products at significant discounts, sourcing surplus and closeout inventory from manufacturers and wholesalers. Grocery Outlet operates a network of independently operated stores, offering a wide range of products including fresh produce, dairy, meat, and non-perishable items, catering to budget-conscious consumers seeking value in their grocery shopping.

How the Company Makes Money

Grocery Outlet makes money primarily through the sale of grocery products at discounted prices. The company's revenue model is based on purchasing excess inventory from manufacturers and distributors at lower costs, which allows them to sell these goods at competitive prices while maintaining healthy profit margins. Key revenue streams include sales from grocery items, private label products, and seasonal promotions. Additionally, Grocery Outlet benefits from a unique business model that involves partnerships with independent operators, who manage individual store locations and contribute to the overall sales performance. These partnerships enable the company to expand its footprint while leveraging local market knowledge, further driving revenue growth.

Grocery Outlet Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Grocery Outlet Holding shows stable revenue growth and gross profit margins, but faces challenges with profitability and cash flow management. The high leverage and declining return on equity highlight potential financial risks. Overall, the company needs to focus on improving operational efficiency and cash flow generation to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Grocery Outlet Holding shows a modest revenue growth rate of 1.15% in the TTM, with a stable gross profit margin of 30.5%. However, the net profit margin is quite low at 0.38%, indicating challenges in converting revenue into profit. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined compared to previous years, suggesting increased operational costs or inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.48, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed well. The return on equity has decreased to 1.42%, reflecting lower profitability on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has decreased significantly, with a negative growth rate of -30.19% in the TTM, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.42, showing some ability to generate cash from operations, but it has declined from previous periods.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2019	Dec 2018
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.47B	4.37B	3.97B	3.58B	2.56B	2.29B
Gross Profit	1.06B	1.32B	1.24B	1.09B	787.10M	695.40M
EBITDA	111.77M	192.35M	214.97M	173.09M	118.49M	129.52M
Net Income	-6.75M	39.47M	79.44M	65.05M	15.42M	15.87M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.37B	3.17B	2.97B	2.77B	2.19B	1.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	52.13M	62.83M	114.99M	102.73M	28.10M	21.06M
Total Debt	1.81B	1.66B	1.39B	1.41B	1.25B	857.37M
Total Liabilities	2.17B	1.98B	1.75B	1.66B	1.44B	1.08B
Stockholders Equity	1.20B	1.20B	1.22B	1.11B	745.38M	299.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-15.43M	-74.65M	111.46M	55.03M	32.57M	37.88M
Operating Cash Flow	164.29M	111.96M	303.45M	185.51M	132.84M	105.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-182.57M	-274.03M	-194.16M	-149.93M	-108.02M	-73.55M
Financing Cash Flow	7.58M	109.91M	-97.02M	-72.94M	-17.78M	-17.00M

Grocery Outlet Holding Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 12.15
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.49, below the 50-day MA of 15.82, and below the 200-day MA of 14.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.40 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GO.

Grocery Outlet Holding Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLGEA	67 Neutral	$435.10M	8.59	11.60%	3.06%	3.76%	12.17%
ACI	67 Neutral	$9.60B	10.34	32.04%	3.38%	2.08%	-1.63%
IMKTA	66 Neutral	$1.37B	24.88	3.58%	0.90%	-7.96%	-64.67%
WMK	66 Neutral	$1.63B	17.36	―	2.15%	3.11%	6.54%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
NGVC	58 Neutral	$744.40M	17.26	23.58%	1.53%	8.51%	40.83%
GO	51 Neutral	$1.28B	―	-0.37%	―	7.22%	-108.99%

Grocery Outlet Holding Corporate Events

Grocery Outlet’s Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges

The recent earnings call for Grocery Outlet Holding presented a mixed sentiment. While the company celebrated strategic advancements such as net sales growth and the success of its store refresh program, concerns were raised about underperformance in comparable store sales, the impact of SNAP benefits, and a decline in adjusted earnings. The introduction of new leadership was seen as a potential positive step towards addressing these operational challenges.

Grocery Outlet Reports Q3 2025 Earnings with Strategic Initiatives

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp., a high-growth retailer known for offering quality, name-brand consumables and fresh products at extreme value, operates over 560 independently operated stores across the United States. In its third quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report, Grocery Outlet reported a 5.4% increase in net sales to $1.17 billion, although net income declined to $11.6 million from $24.2 million the previous year. The company highlighted the launch of its store refresh program as a strategic initiative aimed at improving store layouts and expanding product assortments.

Grocery Outlet Appoints New Chief Store Operations Officer

On August 26, 2025, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. announced the appointment of Frank Kerr as Executive Vice President, Chief Store Operations Officer, effective September 15, 2025. Frank Kerr, with extensive experience in grocery retail, previously held leadership roles at Lidl US and Save A Lot, where he contributed to significant market share gains and operational improvements. His appointment is expected to enhance Grocery Outlet’s store operations and support its mission of providing exceptional value to customers, while driving sustainable growth and profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (GO) stock is a Hold with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grocery Outlet Holding stock, see the GO Stock Forecast page.

Grocery Outlet’s Earnings Call: Optimism Amid Challenges

Grocery Outlet Holding’s recent earnings call painted a picture of cautious optimism. The company reported strong financial performance that exceeded expectations, alongside strategic initiatives that are making headway and positive consumer feedback. However, this optimism was tempered by challenges such as ongoing systems implementation issues and a notable decrease in net income, which balanced the overall sentiment.

Grocery Outlet Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp., a prominent retailer in the extreme value sector, specializes in offering quality, name-brand consumables and fresh products through a network of independently operated stores across the United States.