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Natural Grocers
(NYSE:NGVC)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
▲(16.90% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/11/26
Overall score reflects improving financial performance (better margins, deleveraging trend, stronger TTM cash flow) and a reasonable valuation, partially offset by weak technical momentum (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a mixed earnings call where margin pressure and trimmed guidance temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Improving revenue and profitability
Steady revenue expansion alongside stronger net and EBIT margins indicates improving operating leverage and business execution. Although grocery retail remains low margin, the higher profitability base can support reinvestment, strengthen earnings resilience, and improve long-term returns if sales momentum persists.
Negative Factors
Low-margin model and margin pressure
Natural Grocers operates with limited grocery margin headroom, so modest changes in product mix, shrink, or freight costs can materially affect earnings. Continued pressure would reduce the benefit of revenue growth and could constrain funds available for expansion, technology, and other investments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving revenue and profitability
Steady revenue expansion alongside stronger net and EBIT margins indicates improving operating leverage and business execution. Although grocery retail remains low margin, the higher profitability base can support reinvestment, strengthen earnings resilience, and improve long-term returns if sales momentum persists.
Read all positive factors
Natural Grocers Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Sales by Segment
Breaks down revenue by product lines and channels so investors can see which parts of the business drive sales and margins. Reveals concentration risks (reliance on a single category), where growth is coming from (groceries, supplements, e-commerce, etc.), and whether higher-margin segments are expanding — all of which affect profitability and valuation.
Breaks down revenue by product lines and channels so investors can see which parts of the business drive sales and margins. Reveals concentration risks (reliance on a single category), where growth is coming from (groceries, supplements, e-commerce, etc.), and whether higher-margin segments are expanding — all of which affect profitability and valuation.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNatural Grocers (NGVC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$681.70M
Dividend Yield2%
Average Volume (3M)139.89K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.6
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth2.01%
EPS Growth8.63%
CountryUS
Employees3,853
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.06
Shares Outstanding23,045,850
10 Day Avg. Volume106,947
30 Day Avg. Volume139,890
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.56
Price to Book (P/B)4.32
Price to Sales (P/S)0.69
P/FCF Ratio38.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.51
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.76
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.63
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$37.50Price Target Upside32.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.44B
Natural Grocers Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) operates as a retailer specializing in natural and organic food items and dietary supplements across the United States. Its stores provide an extensive array of natural and organic groceries, includi...
How the Company Makes Money
Natural Grocers primarily makes money through retail sales to consumers in its stores. Its core revenue stream is the sale of merchandise across major categories including (1) natural and organic grocery items (such as packaged foods, dairy, and f...
Natural Grocers Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of positive operational momentum — modest comparable store sales acceleration, strong membership penetration, continued unit growth, e-commerce rollouts, solid liquidity and recognized sustainability leadership — alongside notable near-term headwinds including gross margin compression, reduced adjusted EBITDA, slight EPS decline and a narrowed FY outlook. Management emphasized that some margin impacts were driven by one-time or transitory items (distributor cybersecurity aftereffects and ERP upgrade impacts) and is investing in store expansion and e-commerce to support long-term growth.Positive Updates
Comparable Store Sales Growth
Daily average comparable store sales increased 1.2% in the quarter (up from 0.5% in Q2), with sequential improvement through the quarter; company guidance for FY26 comps is 1.5% to 2.0%.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Compression
Gross margin decreased 60 basis points to 29.3%, driven by lower product margin from an unfavorable sales mix as well as higher merchandise shrink and freight costs; comparability affected by a prior distributor cybersecurity incident and temporary ERP-related operational impacts.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Comparable Store Sales Growth
Daily average comparable store sales increased 1.2% in the quarter (up from 0.5% in Q2), with sequential improvement through the quarter; company guidance for FY26 comps is 1.5% to 2.0%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Natural Grocers refined its fiscal 2026 guidance, now targeting 6–7 new store openings (previously 6–8), 2 relocations/remodels (previously 2–3), and daily average comparable store sales growth of 1.5%–2.0% (previously 1.5%–2.5%); diluted EPS is guided to $2.07–$2.11 (previously $2.07–$2.15) and includes roughly $0.08 of incremental investment for new stores, preopening costs are expected to impact full‑year EPS by about $0.08 (with $0.04 incurred in Q3), capital expenditures remain $45–$50 million, and management noted the fourth quarter will have one fewer selling day due to Labor Day store closures with most sales expected to shift to adjacent days.Natural Grocers Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.34B | 1.33B | 1.24B | 1.14B | 1.09B | 1.06B |
| Gross Profit | 390.41M | 397.88M | 364.81M | 326.93M | 304.88M | 292.19M |
| EBITDA | 95.73M | 93.80M | 77.91M | 60.58M | 58.06M | 57.96M |
| Net Income | 47.64M | 46.44M | 33.94M | 23.24M | 21.36M | 20.58M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 687.69M | 670.50M | 655.48M | 669.18M | 663.11M | 655.08M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 17.47M | 17.12M | 8.87M | 18.34M | 12.04M | 23.68M |
| Total Debt | 321.23M | 332.02M | 346.51M | 370.18M | 393.37M | 401.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 448.27M | 458.11M | 481.22M | 498.34M | 507.30M | 512.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 239.42M | 212.40M | 174.25M | 170.84M | 155.81M | 142.73M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 57.14M | 23.93M | 35.08M | 26.51M | 8.25M | 25.59M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 105.16M | 55.30M | 73.76M | 64.61M | 39.69M | 53.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -48.37M | -30.97M | -38.60M | -37.95M | -31.14M | -27.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -52.50M | -16.09M | -44.63M | -20.35M | -20.19M | -30.98M |
Natural Grocers Technical Analysis
Positive
28.23
Price Trends
29.11
Positive
30.09
Positive
28.23
Positive
Market Momentum
0.36
Negative
66.83
Neutral
46.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGVC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.31, below the 50-day MA of 29.11, and below the 200-day MA of 28.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NGVC.
Natural Grocers Risk Analysis
Natural Grocers disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Natural Grocers reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Natural Grocers Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $6.03B | 12.45 | 34.84% | ― | 7.20% | 7.23% | |
64 Neutral | $681.70M | 14.60 | 21.11% | 2.00% | 2.01% | 8.63% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $1.88B | 19.31 | 7.15% | 1.79% | 4.50% | -3.08% | |
54 Neutral | $37.87B | 34.66 | 17.17% | 2.25% | 1.58% | -53.21% | |
54 Neutral | $6.29B | -445.33 | -2.78% | 4.79% | 2.26% | -106.73% | |
53 Neutral | $1.29B | -3.40 | -40.07% | ― | 5.12% | -4889.01% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
NGVC
Natural Grocers
32.37
-7.50
-18.81%
KR
Kroger Company
67.87
0.73
1.09%
WMK
Weis Markets
80.29
13.05
19.41%
SFM
Sprouts Farmers
68.86
-39.42
-36.41%
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding
13.90
-1.59
-10.26%
ACI
Albertsons Companies
13.87
-4.56
-24.72%
Natural Grocers Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Natural Grocers Stockholders Approve Reincorporation Move to Texas
Neutral
Sep 15, 2026
On September 9, 2026, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. stockholders holding a majority of the company’s voting power approved by written consent a plan to reincorporate the company from Delaware to Texas by conversion. The move had p...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.