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Dollar Tree
(NASDAQ:DLTR)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$121.00
▼(-10.02% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/06/26
DLTR scores in the low-to-mid 60s primarily due to improving profitability and strong cash generation, reinforced by a bullish earnings call with raised guidance and operational progress. Offsetting these positives are high balance-sheet leverage and a weak technical setup (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation is supportive at a mid-teens P/E.
Positive Factors
Comparable Sales Growth
Positive comparable-sales growth indicates improving customer demand across the existing store base, not merely expansion from new locations. Sustained traffic and ticket gains can strengthen revenue productivity, support fixed-cost leverage, and provide a durable foundation for further operational improvement.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
The aggressive capital structure leaves less financial flexibility if sales or margins weaken, which is important for a retailer with variable historical earnings. Higher leverage can constrain investment choices, increase sensitivity to financing conditions, and reduce the company's ability to absorb prolonged operating pressure.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Comparable Sales Growth
Positive comparable-sales growth indicates improving customer demand across the existing store base, not merely expansion from new locations. Sustained traffic and ticket gains can strengthen revenue productivity, support fixed-cost leverage, and provide a durable foundation for further operational improvement.
Read all positive factors
Dollar Tree Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Shows the profitability of each business segment, highlighting which areas are driving earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for improvement.
Shows the profitability of each business segment, highlighting which areas are driving earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for improvement.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDollar Tree (DLTR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.45B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.3
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth-7.85%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees150,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.20
Shares Outstanding187,630,300
10 Day Avg. Volume1,743,968
30 Day Avg. Volume2,529,700
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.13
Price to Book (P/B)6.44
Price to Sales (P/S)1.25
P/FCF Ratio17.32
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.32
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.54
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.97
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$138.65Price Target Upside3.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)7.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.68B
Dollar Tree Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) operates as a leading discount retailer, managing its extensive operations through two principal divisions: Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment distinguishes itself by offering all its merchandise at a c...
How the Company Makes Money
Dollar Tree makes money mainly by purchasing merchandise at scale and selling it through its Dollar Tree and Family Dollar retail stores at value-oriented price points, generating revenue at the point of sale. The core revenue stream is retail sal...
Dollar Tree Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall. Management reported better-than-expected sales, positive traffic, broad-based category strength, improved store execution, favorable shrink, strong cash flow and raised full-year EPS guidance. The principal challenges were helium supply constraints, inflation, fuel-driven freight costs, expected back-half gross-margin pressure, ongoing tariff uncertainty and remaining store-execution opportunities, but management expressed confidence in the underlying business momentum and long-term strategy.Positive Updates
Strong Second-Quarter Sales and Comparable Growth
Net sales increased 7% to $4.9 billion, driven by a 3.7% increase in comparable store sales and a 3.3% contribution from net new store growth. Comparable sales exceeded the high end of the company's outlook.
Negative Updates
Helium Supply Constraints Reduced Sales
Pockets of helium shortages reduced total second-quarter sales by approximately $15 million, or about 30 basis points of comparable sales. The impact was concentrated in the party business, and management said supply remained constrained and that it was not assuming a near-term recovery in its outlook.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Second-Quarter Sales and Comparable Growth
Net sales increased 7% to $4.9 billion, driven by a 3.7% increase in comparable store sales and a 3.3% contribution from net new store growth. Comparable sales exceeded the high end of the company's outlook.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For the full year, Dollar Tree expects net sales in the range of $20.5 billion to $20.7 billion, comparable sales growth of 3% to 4%, adjusted corporate SG&A of $515 million to $535 million including the $40 million charitable contribution, TSA income of $65 million, net interest expense of $70 million, and adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $7.70 to $8.05, including an approximately $0.60 benefit related to the net impact of tariff refunds, based on an outstanding share count of 191 million shares; the outlook includes $383 million of tariff refunds received in Q2, no additional refunds, and reinvestment of approximately $210 million. For the third quarter, net sales are expected in the range of $5 billion to $5.1 billion, comparable store sales growth of 3% to 4%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $0.80 to $0.95, including a negative impact of approximately $0.50 related to tariff refund reinvestments. The company expects gross margin to be up modestly for the year, flattish in Q3 and down in Q4 excluding tariff impacts, does not assume a recovery in helium availability in the near term, and said it did not bake in any real return in the incremental spend.Dollar Tree Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 20.07B | 19.41B | 17.58B | 16.78B | 15.41B | 26.32B |
| Gross Profit | 7.77B | 7.07B | 6.29B | 6.02B | 5.78B | 7.74B |
| EBITDA | 3.04B | 2.36B | 2.02B | 2.17B | 2.87B | 2.53B |
| Net Income | 1.61B | 1.28B | -3.03B | -998.40M | 1.62B | 1.33B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.03B | 13.47B | 18.64B | 22.02B | 23.02B | 21.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.06B | 717.80M | 1.26B | 425.20M | 642.80M | 984.90M |
| Total Debt | 7.67B | 7.06B | 7.83B | 7.37B | 10.13B | 9.97B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.60B | 9.71B | 14.67B | 14.71B | 14.27B | 14.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.43B | 3.75B | 3.98B | 7.31B | 8.75B | 7.72B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.85B | 1.40B | 1.56B | 576.90M | 361.00M | 408.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.99B | 2.53B | 2.86B | 2.68B | 1.61B | 1.43B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.13B | -728.50M | -1.70B | -2.11B | -1.25B | -1.02B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.64B | -2.55B | -411.30M | -530.00M | -686.80M | -836.50M |
Dollar Tree Technical Analysis
Positive
134.48
Price Trends
122.04
Positive
121.51
Positive
116.93
Positive
Market Momentum
2.06
Negative
70.38
Negative
88.17
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DLTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 134.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 118.79, above the 50-day MA of 122.04, and above the 200-day MA of 116.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.38 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.17 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DLTR.
Dollar Tree Risk Analysis
Dollar Tree disclosed 4 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dollar Tree reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Dollar Tree Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $5.50B | 20.41 | 14.58% | ― | 14.43% | 29.33% | |
68 Neutral | $69.96B | 15.74 | 26.66% | 3.01% | 1.95% | 12.49% | |
67 Neutral | $934.60B | 42.53 | 22.74% | 0.83% | 6.16% | 4.00% | |
64 Neutral | $29.60B | 17.09 | 19.56% | 1.79% | 4.77% | 42.79% | |
63 Neutral | $23.45B | 15.30 | 45.58% | ― | -7.85% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
53 Neutral | $1.29B | -3.40 | -40.07% | ― | 5.12% | -4889.01% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
DLTR
Dollar Tree
131.04
30.42
30.23%
DG
Dollar General
139.11
38.06
37.67%
TGT
Target
158.11
67.53
74.55%
WMT
Walmart
121.12
15.15
14.30%
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
92.63
-28.55
-23.56%
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding
13.90
-1.59
-10.26%
Dollar Tree Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dollar Tree Updates Corporate Bylaws and Governance Policies
Neutral
Sep 25, 2026
On September 24, 2026, Dollar Tree’s board amended the company’s by-laws, immediately updating shareholder voting and meeting processes to align more closely with Virginia corporate law. The changes address notice requirements, record ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Dollar Tree Lifts Outlook After Strong Q2 2026 Results
Positive
Aug 27, 2026
Dollar Tree reported strong second-quarter 2026 results on August 27, 2026, with net sales from continuing operations rising 7.0% to $4.9 billion and same-store sales up 3.7%, driven mainly by higher average ticket and modest traffic gains. Profit...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Dollar Tree Schedules Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Release
Neutral
Aug 6, 2026
Dollar Tree, Inc. announced on August 6, 2026, that it would release financial results for its second quarter of fiscal 2026, ended August 1, 2026, before markets open on Thursday, August 27, 2026. The company said Chief Executive Officer Mike Cre...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.