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Dollar Tree
(NASDAQ:DLTR)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$143.00
▲(6.34% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/27/26
DLTR scores solidly on improving fundamentals and upbeat guidance, supported by strong cash generation and operational margin gains, but the overall score is held back by elevated leverage and the still-recent history of earnings volatility. Technically, the stock is in an uptrend with moderate momentum, while valuation (P/E ~20.6 and no dividend) looks only moderately attractive given remaining execution and macro risks.
Positive Factors
Sales Growth and Store Expansion
Positive comparable sales and continued store openings support durable revenue growth by expanding Dollar Tree’s physical reach. The combination of modest traffic improvement, higher tickets and new locations strengthens its position as a scaled value retailer.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
A relatively aggressive capital structure increases financial risk for a retailer exposed to labor, freight and consumer-demand swings. Elevated leverage can constrain investment flexibility and make weaker operating periods more damaging to equity holders.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sales Growth and Store Expansion
Positive comparable sales and continued store openings support durable revenue growth by expanding Dollar Tree’s physical reach. The combination of modest traffic improvement, higher tickets and new locations strengthens its position as a scaled value retailer.
Read all positive factors
Dollar Tree Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Shows the profitability of each business segment, highlighting which areas are driving earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for improvement.
Shows the profitability of each business segment, highlighting which areas are driving earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for improvement.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDollar Tree (DLTR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.75B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.0
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth-7.85%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees150,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.20
Shares Outstanding187,630,300
10 Day Avg. Volume2,876,350
30 Day Avg. Volume2,323,292
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.13
Price to Book (P/B)6.44
Price to Sales (P/S)1.25
P/FCF Ratio17.32
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$137.75Price Target Upside2.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)7.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.67B
Dollar Tree Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) operates as a leading discount retailer, managing its extensive operations through two principal divisions: Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment distinguishes itself by offering all its merchandise at a c...
How the Company Makes Money
Dollar Tree makes money primarily by selling merchandise directly to consumers in its retail stores. Revenue is generated at the point of sale across major product categories, with consumables (e.g., food, snacks, beverages, household essentials, ...
Dollar Tree Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid underlying momentum with strong top-line growth, significant margin expansion (gross margin +120 bps, operating margin +110 bps) and a 38% increase in adjusted EPS, supported by inventory improvement, shrink reduction and strong cash generation/repurchases. Management acknowledged persistent headwinds—traffic down 1%, higher fuel and tariff uncertainty, modest SG&A deleverage due to marketing and liability costs, and ongoing variability in store execution—but emphasized operational levers (multi-price assortment, gold store standards, targeted marketing) and a prudent, conservative outlook. On balance the positive operational and financial developments materially outweigh the challenges, though execution and macro volatility remain watch points.Positive Updates
Top-line Growth
Net sales increased 7.2% year-over-year to $5.0 billion in Q1 FY2026, driven by 3.5% comparable store sales and a 3.7% contribution from new stores.
Negative Updates
Traffic Decline
Traffic declined 1% in Q1 (though management notes a 20 basis point sequential improvement vs. Q4 and 2-year traffic acceleration), reflecting muted near-term traffic following prior pricing resets and earlier Easter timing headwind.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-line Growth
Net sales increased 7.2% year-over-year to $5.0 billion in Q1 FY2026, driven by 3.5% comparable store sales and a 3.7% contribution from new stores.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated FY2026 guidance to net sales of $20.5–$20.7 billion with comparable-store sales growth of 3.0%–4.0% and adjusted diluted EPS of $6.70–$7.10 (outlook assumes 194 million diluted shares outstanding after share repurchases); Q2 guidance is net sales of $4.8–$4.9 billion, comp growth of 2.5%–3.5% and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.00–$1.15. The outlook assumes current tariff rates remain through July then revert to pre‑Feb‑20 levels (no tariff refunds assumed) and incorporates higher fuel costs and the benefit of a lower share count from repurchases (Q1 repurchases ~5.5M shares for $595M plus $98M subsequent). Management cited the strong Q1 start underpinning the update (Q1 net sales $5.0B, comps +3.5% with +3.7% contribution from net new stores, traffic -1%, ticket +4.5%, Q1 adjusted EPS $1.74, +38% YoY; gross margin +120 bps; adjusted operating margin 9.5% up 110 bps), noted inventory was down 9% year‑over‑year, cash of $1.0B and free cash flow of $392M, and said any future tariff refunds would likely be reinvested in the business.Dollar Tree Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 20.07B | 19.41B | 17.58B | 16.78B | 15.41B | 26.32B |
| Gross Profit | 7.77B | 7.07B | 6.29B | 6.02B | 5.78B | 7.74B |
| EBITDA | 2.88B | 2.36B | 2.02B | 2.17B | 2.46B | 2.53B |
| Net Income | 1.61B | 1.28B | -3.03B | -998.40M | 1.62B | 1.33B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.03B | 13.47B | 18.64B | 22.02B | 23.02B | 21.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.06B | 717.80M | 1.26B | 425.20M | 642.80M | 984.90M |
| Total Debt | 7.67B | 7.06B | 7.83B | 7.37B | 10.13B | 9.97B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.60B | 9.71B | 14.67B | 14.71B | 14.27B | 14.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.43B | 3.75B | 3.98B | 7.31B | 8.75B | 7.72B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.85B | 1.40B | 1.56B | 576.90M | 361.00M | 408.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.99B | 2.53B | 2.86B | 2.68B | 1.61B | 1.43B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.13B | -728.50M | -1.70B | -2.11B | -1.25B | -1.02B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.64B | -2.55B | -411.30M | -530.00M | -686.80M | -836.50M |
Dollar Tree Technical Analysis
Positive
134.48
Price Trends
127.04
Positive
114.67
Positive
116.97
Positive
Market Momentum
1.24
Positive
53.53
Neutral
70.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DLTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 134.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 130.38, above the 50-day MA of 127.04, and above the 200-day MA of 116.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DLTR.
Dollar Tree Risk Analysis
Dollar Tree disclosed 4 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dollar Tree reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Dollar Tree Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $28.88B | 16.98 | 19.56% | 2.01% | 4.77% | 42.79% | |
68 Neutral | $74.21B | 16.94 | 26.66% | 3.33% | 1.95% | 12.49% | |
67 Neutral | $24.75B | 15.98 | 45.58% | ― | -7.85% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $841.69B | 39.14 | 22.74% | 0.88% | 6.16% | 4.00% | |
66 Neutral | $4.39B | 16.38 | 14.58% | ― | 14.43% | 29.33% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
53 Neutral | $1.19B | -3.17 | -40.07% | ― | 5.12% | -4889.01% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
DLTR
Dollar Tree
131.04
29.92
29.59%
DG
Dollar General
131.26
24.16
22.55%
TGT
Target
164.01
74.47
83.16%
WMT
Walmart
108.42
8.75
8.78%
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
73.69
-59.71
-44.76%
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding
12.30
-6.02
-32.86%
Dollar Tree Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Dollar Tree Lifts Outlook After Strong Q2 2026 Results
Positive
Aug 27, 2026
Dollar Tree reported strong second-quarter 2026 results on August 27, 2026, with net sales from continuing operations rising 7.0% to $4.9 billion and same-store sales up 3.7%, driven mainly by higher average ticket and modest traffic gains. Profit...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Dollar Tree Schedules Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Release
Neutral
Aug 6, 2026
Dollar Tree, Inc. announced on August 6, 2026, that it would release financial results for its second quarter of fiscal 2026, ended August 1, 2026, before markets open on Thursday, August 27, 2026. The company said Chief Executive Officer Mike Cre...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Dollar Tree Announces $2.5 Billion Share Repurchase
Positive
Jul 2, 2026
On July 1, 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc.’s Board of Directors approved a replenished share repurchase authorization totaling $2.5 billion, restoring the program to the limit previously set in July 2025. The decision follows a June 2026 block trade...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Dollar Tree Streamlines Board and Confirms Governance Decisions
Neutral
Jun 23, 2026
On June 16, 2026, Dollar Tree amended its by-laws to reduce the size of its board of directors from eleven to ten members, reflecting an adjustment in its governance structure. The same day, shareholders elected ten directors to one-year terms, in...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Dollar Tree Delivers Strong Q1 2026 Earnings Growth
Positive
May 28, 2026
Dollar Tree reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on May 28, 2026, showing net sales up 7.2% to $5.0 billion and comparable store net sales up 3.5%, driven by higher average ticket despite slightly lower traffic. Operating income from continu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.