Dollar Tree (DLTR)
NASDAQ:DLTR
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Dollar Tree
(NASDAQ:DLTR)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$123.00
▲(16.11% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/29/26
DLTR scores well on improving fundamentals and a positive earnings outlook (profitability rebound, strong cash flow, raised FY2026 guidance and buybacks). The score is tempered by moderate leverage and technical indicators that look overbought with cooling momentum, while valuation appears reasonable but not notably cheap.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation and free cash flow
Sustained operating cash flow and healthy FCF provide durable financial flexibility to fund capex, remodels and buybacks without relying on equity issuance. This cash conversion supports reinvestment in stores and shareholder returns while buffering earnings volatility over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Moderate leverage and covenant exposure
Meaningful debt and leverage constrain financial flexibility and magnify downside if sales or margins falter. The recent $500M term loan adds maturity visibility but introduces covenants that can limit capital allocation and require deleveraging under stress, reducing resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation and free cash flow
Sustained operating cash flow and healthy FCF provide durable financial flexibility to fund capex, remodels and buybacks without relying on equity issuance. This cash conversion supports reinvestment in stores and shareholder returns while buffering earnings volatility over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Dollar Tree Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Details revenue contributions from different business segments, helping to identify which areas are most lucrative and where there may be potential for expansion.
Details revenue contributions from different business segments, helping to identify which areas are most lucrative and where there may be potential for expansion.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDollar Tree (DLTR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.02B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.2
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth-19.68%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees153,032
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.41
Shares Outstanding192,174,590
10 Day Avg. Volume5,523,576
30 Day Avg. Volume4,321,554
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.13
Price to Book (P/B)6.44
Price to Sales (P/S)1.25
P/FCF Ratio17.32
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.32
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.79
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$122.61Price Target Upside15.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)6.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.64B
Dollar Tree Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and...
How the Company Makes Money
Dollar Tree primarily makes money by selling merchandise in its Dollar Tree and Family Dollar retail stores. Revenue is generated when customers purchase products across key categories such as consumables (which tend to drive frequent trips and re...
Dollar Tree Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid underlying momentum with strong top-line growth, significant margin expansion (gross margin +120 bps, operating margin +110 bps) and a 38% increase in adjusted EPS, supported by inventory improvement, shrink reduction and strong cash generation/repurchases. Management acknowledged persistent headwinds—traffic down 1%, higher fuel and tariff uncertainty, modest SG&A deleverage due to marketing and liability costs, and ongoing variability in store execution—but emphasized operational levers (multi-price assortment, gold store standards, targeted marketing) and a prudent, conservative outlook. On balance the positive operational and financial developments materially outweigh the challenges, though execution and macro volatility remain watch points.Positive Updates
Top-line Growth
Net sales increased 7.2% year-over-year to $5.0 billion in Q1 FY2026, driven by 3.5% comparable store sales and a 3.7% contribution from new stores.
Negative Updates
Traffic Decline
Traffic declined 1% in Q1 (though management notes a 20 basis point sequential improvement vs. Q4 and 2-year traffic acceleration), reflecting muted near-term traffic following prior pricing resets and earlier Easter timing headwind.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-line Growth
Net sales increased 7.2% year-over-year to $5.0 billion in Q1 FY2026, driven by 3.5% comparable store sales and a 3.7% contribution from new stores.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated FY2026 guidance to net sales of $20.5–$20.7 billion with comparable-store sales growth of 3.0%–4.0% and adjusted diluted EPS of $6.70–$7.10 (outlook assumes 194 million diluted shares outstanding after share repurchases); Q2 guidance is net sales of $4.8–$4.9 billion, comp growth of 2.5%–3.5% and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.00–$1.15. The outlook assumes current tariff rates remain through July then revert to pre‑Feb‑20 levels (no tariff refunds assumed) and incorporates higher fuel costs and the benefit of a lower share count from repurchases (Q1 repurchases ~5.5M shares for $595M plus $98M subsequent). Management cited the strong Q1 start underpinning the update (Q1 net sales $5.0B, comps +3.5% with +3.7% contribution from net new stores, traffic -1%, ticket +4.5%, Q1 adjusted EPS $1.74, +38% YoY; gross margin +120 bps; adjusted operating margin 9.5% up 110 bps), noted inventory was down 9% year‑over‑year, cash of $1.0B and free cash flow of $392M, and said any future tariff refunds would likely be reinvested in the business.Dollar Tree Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.75B | 19.41B | 17.58B | 16.78B | 15.41B | 26.32B |
| Gross Profit | 7.25B | 7.07B | 6.29B | 6.02B | 5.78B | 7.74B |
| EBITDA | 2.04B | 2.25B | 2.02B | 2.17B | 2.46B | 2.53B |
| Net Income | 1.29B | 1.28B | -3.03B | -998.40M | 1.62B | 1.33B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.82B | 13.47B | 18.64B | 22.02B | 23.02B | 21.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.01B | 717.80M | 1.26B | 425.20M | 642.80M | 984.90M |
| Total Debt | 4.66B | 4.62B | 7.83B | 7.37B | 10.13B | 9.97B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.32B | 9.71B | 14.67B | 14.71B | 14.27B | 14.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.51B | 3.75B | 3.98B | 7.31B | 8.75B | 7.72B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.56B | 1.40B | 1.56B | 576.90M | 361.00M | 408.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.69B | 2.53B | 2.86B | 2.68B | 1.61B | 1.43B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -737.10M | -728.50M | -1.70B | -2.11B | -1.25B | -1.02B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.22B | -2.55B | -411.30M | -530.00M | -686.80M | -836.50M |
Dollar Tree Technical Analysis
Positive
105.93
Price Trends
100.71
Positive
111.93
Positive
109.40
Positive
Market Momentum
3.20
Negative
64.53
Neutral
79.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DLTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 105.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 97.56, above the 50-day MA of 100.71, and below the 200-day MA of 109.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DLTR.
Dollar Tree Risk Analysis
Dollar Tree disclosed 4 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dollar Tree reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Dollar Tree Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $21.02B | 17.21 | 20.88% | ― | -19.68% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $4.83B | 19.46 | 13.30% | ― | 16.74% | 24.35% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $23.40B | 14.80 | 18.66% | 1.88% | 4.72% | 35.43% | |
60 Neutral | $37.96B | 37.91 | 13.04% | 2.15% | 0.35% | -57.81% | |
55 Neutral | $20.57B | 44.49 | 2.50% | 3.48% | 3.91% | -50.15% | |
51 Neutral | $7.71B | 36.83 | 8.17% | 3.49% | 3.46% | -80.55% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
DLTR
Dollar Tree
112.50
15.83
16.38%
DG
Dollar General
105.09
-6.48
-5.81%
KR
Kroger Company
61.23
-3.66
-5.63%
TSN
Tyson Foods
57.09
3.71
6.95%
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
79.74
-35.27
-30.67%
ACI
Albertsons Companies
15.71
-5.14
-24.64%
Dollar Tree Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Dollar Tree Delivers Strong Q1 2026 Earnings Growth
Positive
May 28, 2026
Dollar Tree reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on May 28, 2026, showing net sales up 7.2% to $5.0 billion and comparable store net sales up 3.5%, driven by higher average ticket despite slightly lower traffic. Operating income from continu...
Financial Disclosures
Dollar Tree Sets Date for Q1 2026 Earnings Release
Neutral
May 7, 2026
Dollar Tree, Inc. announced on May 7, 2026, that it will report financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, which ended on May 2, 2026, before U.S. markets open on Thursday, May 28, 2026. The company will host an earnings conference ca...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Dollar Tree Secures New $500 Million Term Loan
Neutral
Mar 23, 2026
On March 19, 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc. entered into a new $500 million term loan credit facility with Bank of America and a syndicate of lenders, maturing on March 19, 2029 and bearing interest at a rate tied to Term SOFR plus a margin that varies w...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Dollar Tree Posts Strong Q4, Sets Upbeat 2026 Outlook
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
On March 16, 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc. reported strong fourth-quarter and fiscal 2025 results from continuing operations, following the classification of its Family Dollar segment as discontinued operations. For the quarter ended January 31, 2026, n...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.