Mercedes-Benz Group AG Unsponsored ADR (DAII) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For 2026, Mercedes-Benz continues to target volume growth ex-China, with Q4 cars sales expected above Q3 but below previous year and full-year sales slightly below 2025 levels; the xEV share is expected to finish the full-year well within the 23%-25% guidance, while cars’ adjusted return on sales guidance is lowered and narrowed to 2%-3%, with R&D unchanged, investments in PP&E significantly below prior year, and adjusted cash conversion rate raised to 1.2 to 1.4. Cars’ Q4 profitability is expected to be below Q3. Vans sales are expected at prior year level for the full-year, with xEV share unchanged, adjusted return on sales confirmed at 8%-10% and the full-year expected to finish in the upper half of the range; PP&E, R&D, and CCR are unchanged. Financial Services’ full-year adjusted return on equity is expected in the upper half of the 12%-14% range. Group revenue guidance is unchanged at slightly below previous year, group EBIT is now seen at prior year level, and industrial free cash flow is expected to be significantly below prior year, with an increased likelihood of crossing the threshold of slightly below EUR 4.1 billion, including positive cash generation in Q4 and smaller Daimler Truck disposals completed in October but no further potential disposals going forward.