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Cosan
(NYSE:CSAN)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▼(-16.67% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/20/26
The score is primarily held down by weak financial performance (persistent losses and high leverage with a thin equity buffer) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages and negative MACD). The earnings call provides a partial offset via credible deleveraging actions and guidance for improved coverage, but the outcome depends on transaction execution and cash flow realization; valuation support is limited due to the negative P/E and no provided dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Debt Reduction and Improved Maturity Profile
Debt prepayments, lower net debt and reduced 2028 amortizations improve liquidity and refinancing flexibility. The longer 6.2-year average maturity should reduce near-term funding pressure while management continues portfolio monetization.
Negative Factors
Very High Leverage and Thin Equity Cushion
Elevated debt combined with limited equity leaves Cosan vulnerable to refinancing costs, weaker subsidiary distributions and operating downturns. It also restricts financial flexibility until asset sales and cash generation provide further balance-sheet relief.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Debt Reduction and Improved Maturity Profile
Debt prepayments, lower net debt and reduced 2028 amortizations improve liquidity and refinancing flexibility. The longer 6.2-year average maturity should reduce near-term funding pressure while management continues portfolio monetization.
Read all positive factors
Cosan (CSAN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.87B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth-0.36%
EPS Growth50.99%
CountryUS
Employees51,755
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.39
Shares Outstanding991,642,760
10 Day Avg. Volume744,731
30 Day Avg. Volume1,171,724
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.07
Price to Book (P/B)5.09
Price to Sales (P/S)0.67
P/FCF Ratio366.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.42B
Cosan Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cosan S.A. engages in the fuel distribution business. It operates through Raízen, Compass, Moove, Rumo, and Radar segments. The company's Raízen segment engages in the production, marketing, origination, and trading of sugar, as well as ethanol; p...
How the Company Makes Money
Cosan makes money primarily through (1) consolidated operating revenues generated by its controlled subsidiaries and (2) earnings from equity-method investments in companies it does not fully consolidate.
1) Consolidated operating revenues (cash ...
Cosan Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 14, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong progress on capital structure optimization: substantial monetization initiatives (Compass IPO proceeds, Hadar and terminal deals), nearly BRL 9 billion of debt prepayments year-to-date, a 20% reduction in expanded net debt QoQ, and material G&A savings (≈36%). Operationally, key investees produced positive results (Rumo RTK +9% YoY and stable EBITDA, Compass EBITDA +5% YoY; Moove delivered strong sequential EBITDA). However, there are notable negatives: Cosan reported a net loss of BRL 320 million this quarter, a BRL 233 million impairment, a temporarily weak debt service coverage ratio (0.2x LTM) driven by dividend seasonality, some pressure at Bradar, and remaining execution/conditionality risk on several divestments. Overall, the positives from deleveraging, liquidity events and cost cuts materially outweigh the transitory and conditional negatives, though final outcomes depend on closing of announced transactions and dividend flows.Positive Updates
Compass IPO Proceeds Strengthen Capital Structure
Secondary offering of Compass generated BRL 2.3 billion in net proceeds for Cosan, contributing materially to deleveraging and liquidity.
Negative Updates
Negative Net Income for the Quarter
Cosan reported negative net income of BRL 320 million in Q2 2026, although management notes this is a significant improvement versus the same period last year driven by better financial results and lower taxes.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Compass IPO Proceeds Strengthen Capital Structure
Secondary offering of Compass generated BRL 2.3 billion in net proceeds for Cosan, contributing materially to deleveraging and liquidity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that it has reached an inflection point in its leverage metrics and now expects the debt service coverage ratio to improve from an LTM 0.2x (down 0.2x QoQ) to a range of 0.8x–1.2x by year‑end 2026, based on expected dividends/equivalent distributions in 2026 of BRL 1.2–1.8 billion (including up to BRL 586 million from the Hadar/Radar sale), the effects of liability‑management actions (nearly BRL 9 billion of debt prepayments/principal payments year‑to‑date, ~BRL 8.8 billion referenced since the start of the year), proceeds from Compass’s IPO (BRL 2.3 billion net to Cosan), an exclusive LOI for a terminal (BRL 300 million at closing plus a potential BRL 50 million earn‑out), and continued cash yield on financial investments and reduced financial expenses; operational and balance‑sheet metrics highlighted include expanded gross debt of BRL 16.5 billion, expanded net debt of BRL 9.2 billion (20% below Q1 2026 and down from BRL 11.5 billion), a >BRL 2.5 billion reduction in 2028 amortizations, an average debt term of 6.2 years at an average cost of CDI +1.15% p.a., Q2 net loss of BRL 320 million (including a BRL 233 million one‑off TUP San Luis impairment), BRL 399 million of dividends/interest received in the quarter, and ~36% G&A savings (BRL 49 million) in 1H26 versus 1H25; the company noted these guidance assumptions exclude potential new divestments still under evaluation.Cosan Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 40.33B | 40.42B | 43.95B | 39.47B | 39.32B | 26.09B |
| Gross Profit | 13.90B | 13.18B | 13.71B | 10.92B | 8.77B | 5.83B |
| EBITDA | 5.50B | 3.64B | 13.22B | 14.12B | 11.14B | 12.65B |
| Net Income | -8.90B | -9.72B | -9.42B | 1.09B | 1.18B | 6.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 126.50B | 135.12B | 141.27B | 139.87B | 134.48B | 97.84B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.86B | 30.17B | 20.40B | 18.27B | 15.96B | 21.04B |
| Total Debt | 60.80B | 70.64B | 72.97B | 62.18B | 56.52B | 48.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 90.57B | 104.11B | 101.87B | 88.88B | 86.32B | 68.97B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.96B | 5.30B | 10.90B | 20.96B | 20.65B | 14.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.78B | 73.75M | 5.25B | 4.01B | 5.44B | 372.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.48B | 8.37B | 13.08B | 10.28B | 9.97B | 5.15B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.66B | -5.94B | -4.49B | -4.30B | -20.61B | -5.48B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.11B | 7.97B | -6.61B | -4.52B | 8.17B | 2.35B |
Cosan Technical Analysis
Neutral
3.00
Price Trends
2.90
Negative
3.25
Negative
3.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
51.16
Neutral
84.31
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSAN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.75, above the 50-day MA of 2.90, and below the 200-day MA of 3.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.31 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CSAN.
Cosan Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $8.45B | 6.20 | 24.08% | 1.78% | 13.54% | ― | |
75 Outperform | $3.95B | 4.55 | 57.75% | ― | 13.19% | ― | |
72 Outperform | $7.07B | 10.44 | 20.80% | 4.91% | 20.26% | 31.82% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $4.42B | 19.79 | 95.27% | 1.61% | 11.40% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $4.20B | 60.52 | 10.48% | 1.41% | 17.88% | ― | |
44 Neutral | $2.87B | -1.45 | -180.84% | ― | -0.36% | 50.99% |
* Energy Sector Average
CSAN
Cosan
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-38.43%
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Cosan Corporate Events
Cosan Advances R$1.85 Billion Mato Grosso Land Deal with Agricultural Lessees
Jul 9, 2026
Cosan S.A. has moved forward with the monetization of its land assets in Mato Grosso, announcing on July 9, 2026 that it has executed an agreement for the consensual segregation of these properties. The company also signed new purchase and sale ag...
Cosan to Sell 12% of Radar Farmland Portfolio in BRL 1.85 Billion Deal
Jun 17, 2026
On June 17, 2026, Cosan S.A. announced that Radar Group, its agricultural land investment platform, signed a purchase and sale commitment to dispose of part of its farmland portfolio in Mato Grosso. The assets represent 12% of Radar’s total ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.