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Cosan
(NYSE:CSAN)
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Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(0.00% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/04/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality (large net losses) and elevated balance-sheet leverage, which increase risk. Technicals add further pressure as the stock is in a clear downtrend with bearish momentum, while valuation is not supportive due to the negative P/E tied to losses.
Positive Factors
Diversified energy & logistics portfolio
Cosan’s portfolio spans fuel retail, lubricants, gas distribution/marketing, power generation/trading and logistics. This structural diversification reduces single-market exposure, enables cross-chain synergies and supply optimization, supporting more stable cash flows across commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Large TTM net losses
A substantial TTM net loss (around -24% net margin) undermines retained earnings and earnings quality. Persistent losses constrain internal reinvestment, may limit dividend capacity, and raise the risk of equity erosion, making sustained recovery and capital access more challenging.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified energy & logistics portfolio
Cosan’s portfolio spans fuel retail, lubricants, gas distribution/marketing, power generation/trading and logistics. This structural diversification reduces single-market exposure, enables cross-chain synergies and supply optimization, supporting more stable cash flows across commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Cosan (CSAN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.51B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.49
Revenue Growth-6.59%
EPS Growth40.75%
CountryUS
Employees51,755
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.56
Shares Outstanding991,642,760
10 Day Avg. Volume744,731
30 Day Avg. Volume1,171,724
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.07
Price to Book (P/B)5.09
Price to Sales (P/S)0.67
P/FCF Ratio366.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.20Price Target Upside6.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.53B
Cosan Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cosan S.A. engages in the fuel distribution business. It operates through Raízen, Compass, Moove, Rumo, and Radar segments. The company's Raízen segment engages in the production, marketing, origination, and trading of sugar, as well as ethanol; p...
How the Company Makes Money
Cosan makes money primarily through (1) consolidated operating revenues generated by its controlled subsidiaries and (2) earnings from equity-method investments in companies it does not fully consolidate.
1) Consolidated operating revenues (cash ...
Cosan Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of strong operational execution at core assets (Rumo, Compass, Moove), decisive liability management actions (BRL ~6.5 billion gross debt reduction, BRL 7.7 billion cash, and potential BRL 2.5 billion proceeds from Compass offering) and a clear deleveraging strategy. Offsetting these positives are important holding-level challenges: a net loss, deterioration in interest coverage (0.4x), quarter-on-quarter expansion of reported net debt driven by one-off and reclassification effects, and the removal of Raizen from equity-method contributions following impairments. Management emphasized ongoing portfolio simplification and intent to continue asset sales/divestments to further reduce leverage. Overall, the call balanced meaningful operational and balance sheet progress with notable near-term financial and accounting headwinds.Positive Updates
Net loss improved versus prior year
Net loss of BRL 1.6 billion in Q1 2026, an improvement of BRL 0.2 billion versus Q1 2025; part of the result reflects a ~BRL 1 billion non-cash impact from prepayment of 2029-2031 bonds.
Negative Updates
Raizen investment impairment and deconsolidation
Cosan no longer recognizes Raizen results in its financial statements after the carrying amount was reduced to zero following impairments at end of 2025; future stake likely to be minority and potentially monetized, removing Raizen as a meaningful equity-method contributor.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Net loss improved versus prior year
Net loss of BRL 1.6 billion in Q1 2026, an improvement of BRL 0.2 billion versus Q1 2025; part of the result reflects a ~BRL 1 billion non-cash impact from prepayment of 2029-2031 bonds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s guidance emphasized continued deleveraging and portfolio simplification with specific metrics: Q1‑26 net loss of BRL 1.6bn (improvement of BRL 0.2bn YoY) including ~BRL 1bn non‑cash impact from bond prepayments; expanded net debt at BRL 11.5bn (‑34% YoY, +18% q/q), expanded gross debt reduced by ~BRL 6.2–6.5bn (BRL 566m debenture redemptions + ~BRL 5.6bn bonds), cash BRL 7.7bn and potential Compass proceeds of ~BRL 2.5bn at BRL 28/share; average debt maturity extended to 6.1 years and cost ex‑perpetual ≈ CDI+1.15% p.a., interest coverage 0.4x (0.9x prior). Operational highlights: Rumo volumes +25% (EBITDA +7%), Compass EBITDA +2%, Moove lubricant sales +10% (Brazil market share 16.4%), Radar EBITDA −27%. Management reiterated priority on asset sales/capital recycling (vs. dividends) to further cut leverage and ultimately simplify or wind down the holding within a 3–5 year horizon.Cosan Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 39.78B | 40.42B | 43.95B | 39.47B | 39.32B | 26.09B |
| Gross Profit | 13.38B | 13.18B | 13.71B | 10.92B | 8.77B | 5.83B |
| EBITDA | 4.44B | 3.64B | 13.22B | 14.12B | 11.14B | 12.65B |
| Net Income | -9.52B | -9.72B | -9.42B | 1.09B | 1.18B | 6.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 126.99B | 135.12B | 141.27B | 139.87B | 134.48B | 97.84B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 21.74B | 30.17B | 20.18B | 18.27B | 15.96B | 21.04B |
| Total Debt | 64.88B | 70.64B | 72.97B | 62.18B | 56.52B | 48.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 97.60B | 104.11B | 101.87B | 88.88B | 86.32B | 68.97B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.49B | 5.30B | 10.90B | 20.96B | 20.65B | 14.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.71B | 73.75M | 5.25B | 4.01B | 5.44B | 372.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.14B | 8.37B | 13.08B | 10.28B | 9.97B | 5.15B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -9.54B | -5.94B | -4.49B | -4.30B | -20.61B | -5.48B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 499.34M | 7.97B | -6.61B | -4.52B | 8.17B | 2.35B |
Cosan Technical Analysis
Negative
3.00
Price Trends
2.90
Negative
3.39
Negative
3.95
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.12
Positive
29.70
Positive
9.07
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSAN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.96, above the 50-day MA of 2.90, and below the 200-day MA of 3.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.70 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.07 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CSAN.
Cosan Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $8.52B | 6.25 | 24.08% | 1.78% | 13.54% | ― | |
72 Outperform | $4.02B | 4.60 | 57.75% | ― | 13.19% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $6.74B | 10.02 | 20.80% | 4.91% | 20.26% | 31.82% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
61 Neutral | $4.01B | 17.94 | 95.27% | 1.61% | 11.40% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $3.54B | 51.10 | 10.48% | 1.41% | 17.88% | ― | |
42 Neutral | $2.51B | -1.10 | -173.91% | ― | -6.59% | 40.75% |
* Energy Sector Average
CSAN
Cosan
2.52
-1.70
-40.28%
CVI
CVR Energy
35.26
8.41
31.31%
DK
Delek US Holdings
65.47
43.09
192.55%
UGP
Ultrapar Participacoes SA
6.16
3.04
97.56%
PBF
PBF Energy
71.85
48.73
210.80%
PARR
Par Pacific Holdings
80.32
50.34
167.91%
Cosan Corporate Events
Cosan Advances R$1.85 Billion Mato Grosso Land Deal with Agricultural Lessees
Jul 9, 2026
Cosan S.A. has moved forward with the monetization of its land assets in Mato Grosso, announcing on July 9, 2026 that it has executed an agreement for the consensual segregation of these properties. The company also signed new purchase and sale ag...
Cosan to Sell 12% of Radar Farmland Portfolio in BRL 1.85 Billion Deal
Jun 17, 2026
On June 17, 2026, Cosan S.A. announced that Radar Group, its agricultural land investment platform, signed a purchase and sale commitment to dispose of part of its farmland portfolio in Mato Grosso. The assets represent 12% of Radar’s total ...
Cosan Files Routine May 2026 Form 6-K With U.S. SEC
May 15, 2026
Cosan S.A., a Brazilian foreign issuer that files annual reports on Form 20-F with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, submitted a Form 6-K for the month of May 2026, confirming its continued adherence to U.S. reporting requirements for o...
Cosan Publishes Reviewed Q1 2026 Interim Financial Statements With Clean PwC Conclusion
May 14, 2026
Cosan S.A. has released its condensed interim individual and consolidated financial statements for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, together with an independent review report. The company also disclosed detailed segment information, investment mo...
Cosan Prices Secondary Offering in Compass, Trims Stake While Retaining Control
May 8, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Cosan’s board approved the pricing of a secondary public offering of common shares in its gas subsidiary Compass Gás e Energia, following earlier disclosures in February, March and April. The company will sell 76,785,715...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.