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Brightstar Lottery
(NYSE:BRSL)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(4.62% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is held back primarily by elevated financial risk: very high leverage and sharply deteriorated reported TTM operating/free cash flow. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E and high yield, and the earnings call was constructive with reiterated guidance and a stated path to stronger cash generation, but technicals remain mixed with the stock still below longer-term moving averages.
Positive Factors
Digital lottery growth
Strong iLottery growth in both the U.S. and Italy indicates expanding digital adoption across multiple established markets. Continued wager growth can deepen customer engagement, improve the mix toward scalable digital channels, and provide a durable avenue for revenue expansion.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Very high leverage and declining equity reduce balance-sheet flexibility and make the company more sensitive to earnings or cash-flow swings. A heavily debt-funded capital structure can constrain investment choices, increase financing exposure, and limit resilience if operating performance weakens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Digital lottery growth
Strong iLottery growth in both the U.S. and Italy indicates expanding digital adoption across multiple established markets. Continued wager growth can deepen customer engagement, improve the mix toward scalable digital channels, and provide a durable avenue for revenue expansion.
Read all positive factors
Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.85B
Dividend Yield9.11%
Average Volume (3M)2.14M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.1
Beta (1Y)0.88
Revenue Growth0.65%
EPS Growth-5.40%
CountryUS
Employees5,746
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.99
Shares Outstanding184,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,487,195
30 Day Avg. Volume2,138,900
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio30.27
Price to Book (P/B)3.49
Price to Sales (P/S)1.21
P/FCF Ratio-7.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.80
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.00Price Target Upside48.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.49B
Brightstar Lottery Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Brightstar Lottery PLC provides lottery solutions in the United States, Italy, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company designs, sells, operates, and leases a suite of point-of-sale machines that reconciles lottery funds between the retail...
How the Company Makes Money
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Brightstar Lottery Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a constructive operational and strategic picture: strong iLottery growth, margin improvement, meaningful cost-savings execution and major digital and retail milestones (notably in Italy and Sao Paulo). These achievements were offset by large upfront Italy license cash outflows, accounting-driven service revenue amortization that depresses reported metrics, near-term lumpy product sales and jackpot-driven revenue variability. Management reaffirmed guidance, highlighted improving leverage and a path to >$400M annual free cash flow after the CapEx cycle, and signaled continued shareholder returns and investments. On balance, the positive operational momentum, cash generation (adjusted for the license payment), and clear pathway to scale digital initiatives outweigh the near-term accounting and cash timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Q2 Profit and Margin Outperformance
Adjusted EBITDA rose 4% year-over-year to $286 million in Q2, delivering a reported EBITDA margin near 49% and 42% excluding upfront license fee amortization, outperforming expectations.
Negative Updates
Large Upfront Italy Lotto Payment Impacting Cash Flow
Completed a $1.7 billion upfront Lotto license payment in Q2; reported year-to-date cash from operations was negative $1.17 billion (positive $501M when adjusting for the Lotto payment). Brightstar is responsible for 61.5% of the payment.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q2 Profit and Margin Outperformance
Adjusted EBITDA rose 4% year-over-year to $286 million in Q2, delivering a reported EBITDA margin near 49% and 42% excluding upfront license fee amortization, outperforming expectations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated its full-year 2026 revenue, profit and cash-flow outlook, expecting accelerated revenue and profit in H2 as growth initiatives scale and the U.K. transition is anniversaryed; Q3 same-store sales are expected in line with last year (Italy flat in Q3 with low-single-digit H2 growth, U.S. low-single-digit instant/draw growth offset by lower multistate jackpots), and management expects Q3 organic revenue growth of ~4% year-over-year (about double Q2’s ~2% ex-U.K.) with adjusted EBITDA roughly in line with H1 (slightly down YoY). Financial targets and metrics called out include a FY cash-from-operations target of ~$750M (excluding the upfront Lotto fee) with a path >$800M thereafter, normalized mid-cycle CapEx materially below the recent ~$400M run rate (H1 CapEx $232M; Q2 $121M), an upgraded OPtiMa savings target of $100M (vs. $80M) with ~$70M realizable by end-2026, net debt leverage ~3.24x (below target) and total liquidity ~$1.7B, and an expected annual free cash flow opportunity of >$400M after minority distributions once the CapEx cycle completes. Other guidance/details: FY effective tax rate mid‑ to high‑30s (cash taxes ~ $150M vs. $220M prior year), noncash service‑revenue amortization of ~ $0.94 per share impact to adjusted EPS this year, YTD adjusted EPS $0.24 (or $0.71 ex‑amortization), LTM cash dividend yield ~9%, $140M returned to shareholders YTD ($85M dividends, $55M buybacks) with $175M remaining buyback authorization, and a $50M investment plan for new market/product initiatives.Brightstar Lottery Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
33
Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.47B | 2.51B | 2.51B | 2.53B | 2.60B | 4.09B |
| Gross Profit | 1.15B | 1.27B | 1.33B | 1.37B | 1.20B | 1.96B |
| EBITDA | 1.14B | 1.10B | 1.14B | 1.12B | 1.42B | 1.41B |
| Net Income | 248.00M | 147.00M | 348.00M | 156.00M | 275.00M | 482.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.04B | 9.16B | 10.28B | 10.46B | 10.43B | 11.32B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 558.00M | 1.45B | 584.00M | 508.00M | 590.00M | 591.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.43B | 4.25B | 5.47B | 5.78B | 6.03B | 6.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.02B | 7.57B | 8.22B | 8.51B | 8.45B | 9.35B |
| Stockholders Equity | 846.00M | 875.00M | 1.65B | 1.44B | 1.43B | 1.28B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.21B | -415.00M | 881.00M | 893.00M | 737.00M | 740.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.83B | -99.00M | 1.03B | 1.04B | 899.00M | 978.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.86B | 3.82B | -357.00M | -467.00M | 168.00M | 636.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.97B | -3.03B | -586.00M | -564.00M | -1.06B | -1.90B |
Brightstar Lottery Technical Analysis
Negative
11.47
Price Trends
10.75
Negative
10.76
Negative
11.80
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.24
Negative
41.31
Neutral
66.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRSL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.18, above the 50-day MA of 10.75, and below the 200-day MA of 11.80, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BRSL.
Brightstar Lottery Risk Analysis
Brightstar Lottery disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Brightstar Lottery reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Brightstar Lottery Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $5.77B | 15.81 | 45.70% | 3.81% | 17.33% | 176.52% | |
68 Neutral | $888.26M | 16.32 | 20.74% | ― | 8.70% | 65.14% | |
67 Neutral | $4.69B | 66.15 | 20.44% | ― | 34.29% | 14.69% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $17.03B | -59.00 | -26.30% | ― | 15.03% | 46.89% | |
51 Neutral | $1.85B | 10.09 | 28.84% | 9.11% | 0.65% | -5.40% | |
50 Neutral | $98.84M | -11.11 | 70.68% | ― | -6.73% | -114.46% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery
9.99
-5.84
-36.88%
INSE
Inspired Entertainment
3.52
-5.26
-59.91%
ACEL
Accel Entertainment
11.10
0.71
6.83%
DKNG
DraftKings
19.87
-15.33
-43.55%
RSI
Rush Street Interactive
20.32
1.49
7.91%
SGHC
Super Group (SGHC)
11.54
-1.28
-10.00%
Brightstar Lottery Corporate Events
Brightstar Lottery Refinances €500 Million Notes with New 2032 Issue
Sep 16, 2026
On September 16, 2026, Brightstar Lottery PLC reported the outcome of its cash tender offer for Regulation S interests in its €500 million 2.375% Senior Secured Notes due 2028. The offer, which expired on September 15, 2026, resulted in S...
Brightstar Lottery Prices €500 Million Senior Secured Notes to Refinance 2028 Debt
Sep 10, 2026
On September 9, 2026, Brightstar Lottery PLC announced it had successfully priced €500 million of 4.875% senior secured notes due 2032 at 99.360% of nominal value, with listing planned on Euronext Dublin’s Official List and Global Exch...
Brightstar Lottery Launches Tender Offer and New 2032 Note Issue to Extend Debt Maturities
Sep 8, 2026
On September 8, 2026, Brightstar Lottery PLC launched a tender offer to repurchase any and all Regulation S interests in its outstanding €500 million 2.375% senior secured notes due 2028 at €990 per €1,000 of principal, plus accr...
Brightstar Lottery Boosts Treasury Stock with August 2026 Share Buybacks
Aug 5, 2026
Brightstar Lottery PLC reported that it repurchased 945,593 ordinary shares in three transactions executed on July 17, July 24 and August 3, 2026, under its previously announced $500 million share buyback program. The company paid an aggregate $9,...
Brightstar Lottery Files Mid‑Year 2026 Unaudited Results and Risk Disclosures
Aug 4, 2026
In August 2026, Brightstar Lottery PLC furnished a Form 6-K containing unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for the quarter and six months ended June 30, 2026, including balance sheets, statements of operations, comprehensive inco...
Brightstar Lottery Posts Q2 Profit, Raises Cost-Savings Target and Declares Dividend
Aug 4, 2026
Brightstar Lottery PLC reported on August 4, 2026 that second-quarter 2026 revenue fell 7% year on year to $584 million, but income from continuing operations swung to a $56 million profit from a $60 million loss, driven by global same-store lotte...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.