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Brightstar Lottery
(NYSE:BRSL)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(15.27% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is held back primarily by elevated financial risk: very high leverage and sharply deteriorated reported TTM operating/free cash flow. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E and high yield, and the earnings call was constructive with reiterated guidance and a stated path to stronger cash generation, but technicals remain mixed with the stock still below longer-term moving averages.
Positive Factors
Digital lottery growth
Strong iLottery growth across Italy and the U.S. supports a durable shift toward digital channels, expanding engagement and creating scalable opportunities beyond traditional retail lottery operations.
Negative Factors
High financial leverage
The highly leveraged capital structure reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to earnings or cash-flow volatility, potentially constraining investment and shareholder returns if performance weakens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Digital lottery growth
Strong iLottery growth across Italy and the U.S. supports a durable shift toward digital channels, expanding engagement and creating scalable opportunities beyond traditional retail lottery operations.
Read all positive factors
Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.23B
Dividend Yield7.52%
Average Volume (3M)1.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.2
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth0.65%
EPS Growth-5.40%
CountryUS
Employees5,746
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.99
Shares Outstanding183,991,460
10 Day Avg. Volume1,457,243
30 Day Avg. Volume1,471,451
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio30.27
Price to Book (P/B)3.49
Price to Sales (P/S)1.21
P/FCF Ratio-7.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.50Price Target Upside48.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.49B
Brightstar Lottery Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Brightstar Lottery PLC provides lottery solutions in the United States, Italy, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company designs, sells, operates, and leases a suite of point-of-sale machines that reconciles lottery funds between the retail...
How the Company Makes Money
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Brightstar Lottery Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a constructive operational and strategic picture: strong iLottery growth, margin improvement, meaningful cost-savings execution and major digital and retail milestones (notably in Italy and Sao Paulo). These achievements were offset by large upfront Italy license cash outflows, accounting-driven service revenue amortization that depresses reported metrics, near-term lumpy product sales and jackpot-driven revenue variability. Management reaffirmed guidance, highlighted improving leverage and a path to >$400M annual free cash flow after the CapEx cycle, and signaled continued shareholder returns and investments. On balance, the positive operational momentum, cash generation (adjusted for the license payment), and clear pathway to scale digital initiatives outweigh the near-term accounting and cash timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Q2 Profit and Margin Outperformance
Adjusted EBITDA rose 4% year-over-year to $286 million in Q2, delivering a reported EBITDA margin near 49% and 42% excluding upfront license fee amortization, outperforming expectations.
Negative Updates
Large Upfront Italy Lotto Payment Impacting Cash Flow
Completed a $1.7 billion upfront Lotto license payment in Q2; reported year-to-date cash from operations was negative $1.17 billion (positive $501M when adjusting for the Lotto payment). Brightstar is responsible for 61.5% of the payment.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q2 Profit and Margin Outperformance
Adjusted EBITDA rose 4% year-over-year to $286 million in Q2, delivering a reported EBITDA margin near 49% and 42% excluding upfront license fee amortization, outperforming expectations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated its full-year 2026 revenue, profit and cash-flow outlook, expecting accelerated revenue and profit in H2 as growth initiatives scale and the U.K. transition is anniversaryed; Q3 same-store sales are expected in line with last year (Italy flat in Q3 with low-single-digit H2 growth, U.S. low-single-digit instant/draw growth offset by lower multistate jackpots), and management expects Q3 organic revenue growth of ~4% year-over-year (about double Q2’s ~2% ex-U.K.) with adjusted EBITDA roughly in line with H1 (slightly down YoY). Financial targets and metrics called out include a FY cash-from-operations target of ~$750M (excluding the upfront Lotto fee) with a path >$800M thereafter, normalized mid-cycle CapEx materially below the recent ~$400M run rate (H1 CapEx $232M; Q2 $121M), an upgraded OPtiMa savings target of $100M (vs. $80M) with ~$70M realizable by end-2026, net debt leverage ~3.24x (below target) and total liquidity ~$1.7B, and an expected annual free cash flow opportunity of >$400M after minority distributions once the CapEx cycle completes. Other guidance/details: FY effective tax rate mid‑ to high‑30s (cash taxes ~ $150M vs. $220M prior year), noncash service‑revenue amortization of ~ $0.94 per share impact to adjusted EPS this year, YTD adjusted EPS $0.24 (or $0.71 ex‑amortization), LTM cash dividend yield ~9%, $140M returned to shareholders YTD ($85M dividends, $55M buybacks) with $175M remaining buyback authorization, and a $50M investment plan for new market/product initiatives.Brightstar Lottery Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
33
Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.47B | 2.51B | 2.51B | 2.53B | 2.60B | 4.09B |
| Gross Profit | 1.15B | 1.27B | 1.33B | 1.37B | 1.20B | 1.96B |
| EBITDA | 1.07B | 882.00M | 1.14B | 1.12B | 1.42B | 1.41B |
| Net Income | 248.00M | 147.00M | 348.00M | 156.00M | 275.00M | 482.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.04B | 9.16B | 10.28B | 10.46B | 10.43B | 11.32B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 558.00M | 1.45B | 584.00M | 508.00M | 590.00M | 591.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.43B | 4.25B | 5.47B | 5.78B | 6.03B | 6.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.02B | 7.57B | 8.22B | 8.51B | 8.45B | 9.35B |
| Stockholders Equity | 846.00M | 875.00M | 1.65B | 1.44B | 1.43B | 1.28B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.21B | -415.00M | 881.00M | 893.00M | 737.00M | 740.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.83B | -99.00M | 1.03B | 1.04B | 899.00M | 978.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.86B | 3.82B | -357.00M | -467.00M | 168.00M | 636.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.97B | -3.03B | -586.00M | -564.00M | -1.06B | -1.90B |
Brightstar Lottery Technical Analysis
Positive
10.41
Price Trends
10.81
Positive
11.22
Positive
12.51
Negative
Market Momentum
0.28
Negative
68.46
Neutral
59.70
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRSL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.88, below the 50-day MA of 10.81, and below the 200-day MA of 12.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BRSL.
Brightstar Lottery Risk Analysis
Brightstar Lottery disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Brightstar Lottery reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Brightstar Lottery Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $2.26B | 19.79 | 20.63% | 1.00% | 5.10% | 17.23% | |
72 Outperform | $5.98B | 83.98 | 20.44% | ― | 34.29% | 14.69% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $1.72B | -0.97 | -79.20% | ― | 1496.68% | 30.32% | |
51 Neutral | $2.23B | 12.22 | 28.84% | 37.27% | 0.65% | -5.40% | |
49 Neutral | $2.50B | -2.94 | -48.48% | ― | 6.14% | -1168.84% | |
44 Neutral | $516.30M | -0.84 | -103.53% | ― | 20.38% | -24.51% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery
12.10
-3.15
-20.65%
SBET
SharpLink Gaming
7.91
-11.26
-58.74%
MCRI
Monarch Casino & Resort
126.09
23.22
22.57%
PENN
PENN Entertainment
18.65
-1.23
-6.21%
RSI
Rush Street Interactive
25.80
4.80
22.86%
BALY
Bally's Corporation
10.23
0.49
5.03%
Brightstar Lottery Corporate Events
Brightstar Lottery Boosts Treasury Stock with August 2026 Share Buybacks
Aug 5, 2026
Brightstar Lottery PLC reported that it repurchased 945,593 ordinary shares in three transactions executed on July 17, July 24 and August 3, 2026, under its previously announced $500 million share buyback program. The company paid an aggregate $9,...
Brightstar Lottery Files Mid‑Year 2026 Unaudited Results and Risk Disclosures
Aug 4, 2026
In August 2026, Brightstar Lottery PLC furnished a Form 6-K containing unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for the quarter and six months ended June 30, 2026, including balance sheets, statements of operations, comprehensive inco...
Brightstar Lottery Posts Q2 Profit, Raises Cost-Savings Target and Declares Dividend
Aug 4, 2026
Brightstar Lottery PLC reported on August 4, 2026 that second-quarter 2026 revenue fell 7% year on year to $584 million, but income from continuing operations swung to a $56 million profit from a $60 million loss, driven by global same-store lotte...
Brightstar Lottery Continues $500 Million Buyback with June Treasury Share Purchases
Jul 2, 2026
Brightstar Lottery PLC disclosed that it repurchased 215,800 ordinary shares on June 18, 2026, and a further 87,700 shares on June 26, 2026, under its $500 million buyback program launched in July 2025. The shares, bought at prices ranging between...
Brightstar Lottery Buys Back 935,500 Shares Under Ongoing $500 Million Program
Jun 18, 2026
Brightstar Lottery PLC reported that it repurchased 935,500 ordinary shares between May 22 and June 5, 2026, under its previously announced $500 million buyback program. The company paid a total of $10,483,880.54 for these shares, which were acqui...
Brightstar Lottery Reshapes Global Lottery Leadership as Renato Ascoli Departs
Jun 11, 2026
Brightstar Lottery PLC, a London-based pure-play global lottery operator listed on the NYSE, specializes in secure technology platforms, end-to-end lottery operations, and retail and digital solutions for government-run lotteries. Serving nearly 9...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.