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Red Rock Resorts
(NASDAQ:RRR)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$66.00
▲(10.61% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/07/26
RRR scores moderately due to strong underlying margins and improving recent cash flow, but the overall profile is held back by elevated leverage and a meaningful recent revenue/EBITDA slowdown with margin pressure from disruption and one-time items. Technicals are mixed/neutral, while valuation (mid-teens P/E) and the 3.15% dividend provide support.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, high cash conversion (48% of adjusted EBITDA in Q2; strong YTD OCF) indicates durable internal funding for capex, dividends and strategic investments. Reliable operating cash flow that historically exceeds net income supports flexibility through cycles and reduces reliance on external financing.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Substantial net debt (~$3.5B) and a net-debt/EBITDA ratio above 4x limit financial flexibility. Elevated leverage raises refinancing and covenant risk during slower revenue periods, constraining optionality for M&A, buybacks or faster deleveraging if cash flow weakens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, high cash conversion (48% of adjusted EBITDA in Q2; strong YTD OCF) indicates durable internal funding for capex, dividends and strategic investments. Reliable operating cash flow that historically exceeds net income supports flexibility through cycles and reduces reliance on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Red Rock Resorts Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Shows operating profitability for each segment after normalizing for one‑time items, indicating which parts of the business generate the cash flow needed to service debt, fund capital projects, or return capital to shareholders.
Shows operating profitability for each segment after normalizing for one‑time items, indicating which parts of the business generate the cash flow needed to service debt, fund capital projects, or return capital to shareholders.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRed Rock Resorts (RRR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.27B
Dividend Yield3.48%
Average Volume (3M)688.04K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.0
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth0.86%
EPS Growth-3.37%
CountryUS
Employees9,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.90
Shares Outstanding59,130,386
10 Day Avg. Volume588,935
30 Day Avg. Volume688,044
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.87
Price to Book (P/B)17.53
Price to Sales (P/S)1.82
P/FCF Ratio12.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$72.92Price Target Upside22.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)2.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.02B
Red Rock Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Red Rock Resorts, Inc. is a company that develops and operates casino and entertainment properties throughout the United States. This is primarily achieved through its investments in Station Holdco and Station LLC. The business is categorized into...
How the Company Makes Money
Red Rock Resorts generates revenue mainly from operating its resort casino properties. The largest component is casino gaming revenue, earned from slot machines and table games where the company retains the statistical “house hold” (the difference...
Red Rock Resorts Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call communicated a balanced picture: operational resilience and meaningful free cash flow generation (48% conversion, $100M in Q2), strong property-level execution (Durango, North Fork on track, GVR and Sunset improvements), and active, on-budget capital investments and a strategic brand campaign. Offsetting these positives were YoY declines in consolidated revenue (-3%) and adjusted EBITDA (-9.3%) and notable margin compression (down 281 bps), driven by renovation-related disruption, one-time items, and the absence of certain prior-year items. Leverage (net debt/EBITDA 4.21x) and ongoing construction impacts present manageable but material near-term risks. Overall, the positives around cash generation, project execution, and long-term growth initiatives were roughly balanced with the near-term operational and margin headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow & Shareholder Returns
Converted 48% of adjusted EBITDA to operating free cash flow in Q2, generating $100.0M ( $0.95 per share ); YTD operating free cash flow of $206.7M ( $1.97 per share ). Returned approximately $198M to shareholders year-to-date via dividends and repurchases; Board declared regular cash dividend of $0.26 per Class A share.
Negative Updates
Consolidated Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Declines
Consolidated Q2 net revenue was $510.3M, down 3% YoY. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $208.0M, down 9.3% YoY. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 40.8%, a decrease of 281 basis points YoY.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Free Cash Flow & Shareholder Returns
Converted 48% of adjusted EBITDA to operating free cash flow in Q2, generating $100.0M ( $0.95 per share ); YTD operating free cash flow of $206.7M ( $1.97 per share ). Returned approximately $198M to shareholders year-to-date via dividends and repurchases; Board declared regular cash dividend of $0.26 per Class A share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided clear near‑term and full‑year guidance: full‑year 2026 capital spending is expected at $375–$425 million (investment capex $275–$300M; maintenance $100–$125M); Durango North remains on schedule to open in H2‑2027 and North Fork is expected to open in early Q4‑2026 with total all‑in costs ~ $750M (Red Rock note receivable from the tribe ~$83.4M); Q2 results referenced as context were Las Vegas net revenue $503.2M (‑2% y/y), Las Vegas adjusted EBITDA $227.5M (‑5%) with a 45.2% margin (‑143 bps), consolidated net revenue $510.3M (‑3%), consolidated adjusted EBITDA $208.0M (‑9.3%) with a 40.8% margin (‑281 bps); the company converted 48% of adjusted EBITDA to operating free cash flow ($100M, $0.95/share in the quarter; $206.7M YTD, $1.97/share), ended Q2 with $136.5M cash, $3.6B debt (net debt ~$3.5B), and net debt/EBITDA 4.21x; expected seasonal cadence is Q3 ≈10% below Q2, with construction disruption modeled at ~$2.5M in Q3 (Q2 Green Valley impact ≈$7M from >21k lost room nights), a one‑time $8M 50th‑anniversary/brand marketing charge in Q3, a declared regular dividend of $0.26/share payable Sept 30 (record Sept 15), and ongoing project costs including Sunset Station ~$87M and the next phase at Green Valley Ranch ≈$56M—while the company has returned ~ $198M YTD to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.Red Rock Resorts Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.00B | 2.01B | 1.94B | 1.72B | 1.66B | 1.62B |
| Gross Profit | 1.14B | 1.06B | 1.19B | 1.10B | 1.08B | 1.07B |
| EBITDA | 780.51M | 801.60M | 744.12M | 694.32M | 693.14M | 546.54M |
| Net Income | 168.92M | 188.07M | 154.05M | 176.00M | 205.46M | 241.85M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.37B | 4.17B | 4.05B | 3.95B | 3.35B | 3.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 136.45M | 142.47M | 164.38M | 137.59M | 117.29M | 275.28M |
| Total Debt | 3.63B | 58.18M | 3.44B | 3.33B | 3.02B | 2.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.07B | 3.83B | 3.74B | 3.71B | 3.31B | 3.09B |
| Stockholders Equity | 171.07M | 208.33M | 215.07M | 168.84M | 43.78M | 59.49M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 537.83M | 288.87M | 249.42M | -207.29M | -19.12M | 544.02M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 622.62M | 609.51M | 548.26M | 494.34M | 542.22M | 609.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -432.08M | -251.36M | -321.79M | -653.85M | -442.14M | 586.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -199.29M | -380.07M | -199.67M | 179.81M | -290.05M | -1.01B |
Red Rock Resorts Technical Analysis
Negative
59.67
Price Trends
63.30
Negative
59.50
Negative
59.25
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.04
Positive
34.34
Neutral
4.42
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RRR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 59.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.00, below the 50-day MA of 63.30, and above the 200-day MA of 59.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.42 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RRR.
Red Rock Resorts Risk Analysis
Red Rock Resorts disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Red Rock Resorts reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Red Rock Resorts Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $5.86B | 3.50 | 70.49% | 0.87% | 1.75% | 249.96% | |
72 Outperform | $6.10B | 14.79 | 36.57% | 0.51% | 5.73% | -0.56% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $6.27B | 14.97 | 91.10% | 3.18% | 0.86% | -3.37% | |
58 Neutral | $10.93B | 25.73 | 16.96% | ― | 3.19% | -8.14% | |
52 Neutral | $2.39B | -2.73 | -48.48% | ― | 6.14% | -1168.84% | |
50 Neutral | $3.95B | -11.65 | -15.70% | 3.23% | 1.67% | -230.59% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
RRR
Red Rock Resorts
58.40
-2.56
-4.20%
BYD
Boyd Gaming
79.62
-6.46
-7.51%
CHDN
Churchill Downs
86.51
-15.95
-15.57%
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
111.44
36.35
48.40%
MGM
MGM Resorts
42.97
3.38
8.54%
PENN
PENN Entertainment
17.33
-2.85
-14.12%
Red Rock Resorts Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Red Rock Resorts Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
Red Rock Resorts reported the results of its Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 4, 2026, where all nominated directors, including Frank J. Fertitta III and Lorenzo J. Fertitta, were elected by a majority of votes cast, affirming continuit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.