Virgin Australia Holdings Limited (AU:VGN)
ASX:VGN
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Virgin Australia Holdings Limited
(Sydney:VGN)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
AU$3.00
▲(18.11% Upside)
Action:N/A
Date:06/02/26
The score is held back primarily by elevated financial risk from persistently negative equity and a 2025 step-down in revenue/profitability despite continued positive cash generation. Offsetting this, technicals show improving near-term momentum and valuation looks favorable on a low P/E.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow across reported years provides durable liquidity and funding for operations. Persistent cash generation supports debt servicing, working capital and selective reinvestment, giving the airline operational resilience through cycle fluctuations.
Negative Factors
Weak balance sheet / negative equity
Persistently negative equity constrains financial flexibility, raising solvency and refinancing risk. For a capital-intensive, cyclical airline this reduces ability to invest in fleet, absorb shocks or negotiate favorable financing, increasing long-term vulnerability to downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow across reported years provides durable liquidity and funding for operations. Persistent cash generation supports debt servicing, working capital and selective reinvestment, giving the airline operational resilience through cycle fluctuations.
Read all positive factors
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited (VGN) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$1.99B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.98M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.3
Beta (1Y)1.78
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees8,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.30
Shares Outstanding784,231,900
10 Day Avg. Volume1,893,868
30 Day Avg. Volume1,979,654
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.19
Price to Book (P/B)-4.24
Price to Sales (P/S)0.60
P/FCF Ratio6.50
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$3.76Price Target Upside48.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$6.28B
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited provides domestic and international travel services to leisure, corporate and government, regional and charter travel, and air freight customers in Australia. It operates through Airlines and Velocity segments. Th...
How the Company Makes Money
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited primarily generated revenue from selling air travel. Key revenue streams included (1) passenger ticket sales across fare classes (economy and premium products) on domestic and international routes, where revenue d...
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2019 | Jun 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.81B | 3.79B | 5.63B | 5.01B | 4.07B | 3.99B |
| Gross Profit | 1.17B | 494.96M | 5.63B | 5.01B | 1.09B | 1.10B |
| EBITDA | 512.88M | 541.92M | 1.02B | 549.00M | 243.27M | 302.31M |
| Net Income | 231.69M | 313.50M | 545.00M | 129.00M | -244.04M | -501.27M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.46B | 3.19B | 2.66B | 2.47B | 4.52B | 4.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 854.68M | 730.35M | 685.10M | 792.74M | 1.22B | 1.04B |
| Total Debt | 1.56B | 1.50B | 1.56B | 1.50B | 2.12B | 1.89B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.76B | 3.73B | 3.44B | 3.37B | 4.09B | 3.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | -292.01M | -533.71M | -785.91M | -903.31M | 412.23M | 803.36M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 575.95M | 347.93M | 569.00M | 893.00M | -5.66M | 17.59M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.07B | 669.94M | 900.00M | 1.04B | 334.28M | 419.86M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -331.60M | -296.46M | -325.00M | 54.00M | -363.50M | -418.61M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -557.82M | -273.54M | -781.00M | -848.00M | 230.75M | -6.33M |
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | AU$1.17B | 17.05 | 6.99% | 4.06% | 10.31% | 33.06% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | AU$1.99B | 6.29 | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
58 Neutral | AU$13.75B | 8.63 | 151.46% | 4.90% | 6.88% | 26.75% | |
56 Neutral | AU$84.56M | -1.09 | -18.72% | 2.40% | 18.00% | -222.55% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AU:VGN
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited
2.61
-0.62
-19.20%
AU:QAN
Qantas Airways Limited
9.19
-1.07
-10.46%
AU:AQZ
Alliance Aviation Services Limited
0.53
-2.00
-79.17%
AU:KLS
Kelsian Group Limited
4.20
1.09
34.92%
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited Corporate Events
Pinnacle Investment Management Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Virgin Australia
May 22, 2026
Virgin Australia Holdings has disclosed that Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited and its listed subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial shareholders in the company as of 19 May 2026. The notice, lodged under Australia’s Corporati...
Virgin Australia Cancels Over 535,000 Lapsed Take-Off Grant Share Rights
Apr 16, 2026
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited has notified the cessation of 535,139 VA Take-Off Grant Share Rights, after these conditional rights lapsed because their performance or vesting conditions were not met by 31 March 2026. The lapse indicates no res...
Virgin Australia Holds FY26 Guidance as Fuel Hedging Cushions Oil Price Surge
Apr 14, 2026
Virgin Australia said strong customer demand and effective fuel hedging are helping offset a sharp rise in jet fuel prices linked to Middle East tensions, allowing it to maintain FY26 earnings guidance, with second-half underlying EBIT and margins...
Virgin Australia Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Shares
Apr 1, 2026
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 2,241,379 new ordinary fully paid shares issued on 26 March 2026. The shares were issued under an employee incentive scheme, signaling the airline’s continued use of e...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.