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Virgin Australia Holdings Limited
(Sydney:VGN)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.50
â–¼(-1.57% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/29/26
The score is held back primarily by elevated financial risk from persistent negative equity and meaningful debt, alongside the latest-year revenue decline and a sharp drop in free cash flow. These risks are partly offset by improved recent profitability and solid operating cash generation, while a low P/E provides additional support. Technical indicators are broadly neutral and do not materially strengthen the outlook.
Positive Factors
Improved profitability
Virgin Australia has moved from the 2022 loss year to materially stronger recent profitability, including an approximately 11% EBIT margin and 19% EBITDA margin in 2026. This improvement indicates better earnings capacity and provides a stronger base for sustaining operations and funding future priorities.
Negative Factors
Negative equity and rising debt
Persistent negative shareholders’ equity materially limits financial flexibility and leaves Virgin Australia more exposed to adverse conditions in the cyclical airline industry. Increasing debt adds further pressure to the capital structure, potentially constraining investment, resilience, and management’s ability to absorb weaker operating periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved profitability
Virgin Australia has moved from the 2022 loss year to materially stronger recent profitability, including an approximately 11% EBIT margin and 19% EBITDA margin in 2026. This improvement indicates better earnings capacity and provides a stronger base for sustaining operations and funding future priorities.
Read all positive factors
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited (VGN) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$1.81B
Dividend Yield3.15%
Average Volume (3M)1.07M
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.1
Beta (1Y)1.57
Revenue Growth9.37%
EPS Growth1.82%
CountryAU
Employees8,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.77
Shares Outstanding784,231,900
10 Day Avg. Volume958,373
30 Day Avg. Volume1,065,914
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)-10.17
Price to Sales (P/S)0.37
P/FCF Ratio7.64
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$3.55Price Target Upside39.76% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$6.60B
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited provides domestic and international travel services to leisure, corporate and government, regional and charter travel, and air freight customers in Australia. It operates through the Airlines and Velocity segments...
How the Company Makes Money
Virgin Australia makes money primarily by selling air travel and related products and services. Its core revenue stream is passenger revenue generated from ticket sales on scheduled flights, with pricing typically varying by route, cabin/fare type...
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.32B | 5.78B | 5.63B | 5.01B | 2.06B |
| Gross Profit | 959.60M | 757.80M | 5.63B | 5.01B | 41.18M |
| EBITDA | 1.20B | 829.70M | 1.02B | 549.00M | -347.33M |
| Net Income | 501.20M | 478.50M | 545.00M | 129.00M | -565.16M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.24B | 3.19B | 3.98B | 3.72B | 3.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.84B | 762.04M | 1.03B | 1.19B | 1.13B |
| Total Debt | 3.00B | 1.50B | 2.34B | 2.26B | 2.00B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.47B | 3.73B | 5.15B | 5.08B | 4.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | -227.20M | -533.71M | -1.18B | -1.36B | -730.46M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 302.40M | 532.56M | 569.00M | 893.00M | 160.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.18B | 1.03B | 900.00M | 1.04B | 262.83M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -832.20M | -453.78M | -325.00M | 20.15M | -300.16M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 23.50M | -418.69M | -781.00M | -814.10M | -51.28M |
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
2.54
Price Trends
2.66
Negative
2.72
Negative
2.68
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.09
Positive
37.71
Neutral
45.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:VGN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.54, below the 50-day MA of 2.66, and below the 200-day MA of 2.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:VGN.
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$225.38M | 9.27 | 17.03% | 5.04% | 9.74% | 67.42% | |
67 Neutral | AU$255.15M | 11.10 | 11.42% | 5.47% | 26.82% | 13.18% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | AU$1.09B | 17.39 | 6.66% | 4.50% | 8.77% | 16.48% | |
59 Neutral | AU$13.14B | 10.34 | 90.68% | 4.51% | 7.60% | -18.83% | |
58 Neutral | AU$1.81B | 3.13 | -174.87% | 3.15% | 9.37% | 1.82% | |
45 Neutral | AU$85.16M | -0.69 | -24.86% | 5.74% | -8.75% | -258.45% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AU:VGN
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited
2.41
-0.82
-25.32%
AU:QAN
Qantas Airways Limited
8.79
-1.11
-11.19%
AU:LAU
Lindsay Australia Limited
0.70
0.13
22.79%
AU:AQZ
Alliance Aviation Services Limited
0.39
-2.05
-84.04%
AU:CLX
CTI Logistics Limited
2.78
1.01
56.88%
AU:KLS
Kelsian Group Limited
4.00
-0.63
-13.68%
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited Corporate Events
Virgin Australia Publishes 2026 Impact Report Highlighting Sustainability Focus
Oct 30, 2026
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited has released its Impact Report for the year ended 30 June 2026, detailing the group’s activities and performance under its sustainability and broader impact agenda. The publication underscores the airline...
Virgin Australia Issues Over 6 Million Unquoted Share Rights Under Staff Incentive Plan
Oct 22, 2026
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited has notified the market of the issue of 6,128,868 unquoted share rights under an employee incentive scheme. These share rights were issued on October 16, 2026 and are subject to transfer restrictions, meaning they...
Virgin Australia Reports Lapse of Conditional Share Rights
Oct 13, 2026
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 146,267 VA Take-Off Grant Share Rights, which lapsed on September 30, 2026. The rights expired because the specified conditions for conversion into securities were not m...
Virgin Australia Issues New Employee Share Rights Under Incentive Scheme
Oct 12, 2026
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited has notified the market of the issue of 12,408 unquoted VA Take-Off Grant Share Rights under its employee incentive scheme. These securities, identified by ASX code VGNAD, were issued on 14 September 2026 and are ...
Virgin Australia sets hybrid 2026 AGM and director nomination deadline
Sep 18, 2026
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited has scheduled its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 20 November 2026 at 10:00am AEST, to be conducted as a hybrid event in Brisbane and online, ensuring shareholders can reasonably participate regardless of location...
Virgin Australia to Acquire Up to 9.6 Million Shares for Employee Incentive Trust
Aug 27, 2026
Virgin Australia has directed the trustee of its employee share trust, Computershare’s CPU Share Plans Pty Limited, to purchase up to 9.6 million fully paid ordinary shares on the market to meet future obligations under the airline’s e...
Virgin Australia Issues FY26 Results Presentation with Extensive Disclaimers
Aug 27, 2026
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited has released its unaudited FY26 results presentation, which provides high-level financial and operational information for the year ended 30 June 2026, largely drawn from its audited annual report. The document emp...
Virgin Australia posts higher FY26 earnings and declares first dividend since relisting
Aug 27, 2026
Virgin Australia reported a 13.4% rise in underlying EBIT to $753 million and a 21.9% increase in underlying NPAT to $404 million for FY26, supported by strong travel demand, disciplined capacity, fuel hedging and over $450 million in Transformati...
Virgin Australia Declares Ordinary Dividend for FY2026
Aug 27, 2026
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited has announced a new ordinary dividend of AUD 0.076 per fully paid share, relating to the 12‑month period ended 30 June 2026. The dividend will trade ex‑dividend on 14 September, with a record date of 1...
Virgin Australia lifts FY26 profit and declares franked dividend
Aug 27, 2026
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited, an Australian airline group listed as VGN, operates passenger and related aviation services, with a focus on domestic and regional markets. The company provides commercial air transport and associated services to...
Virgin Australia to Release 39.86% of Share Capital from Voluntary Escrow
Aug 23, 2026
Virgin Australia has announced that a large block of shares held in voluntary escrow by BC Hart Investments, L.P. will be released following the company’s full‑year financial results for the year ending 30 June 2026. The release is sch...
Virgin Australia Sets Date for FY26 Results and Investor Briefing
Aug 20, 2026
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited has announced that it will publish its financial results for the full year ended 30 June 2026 on 28 August 2026, and will host a live webcast market briefing at 10:30 a.m. AEST the same day. The scheduled release ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.