Alliance Aviation Services Limited AI Stock Analysis
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Alliance Aviation Services Limited (AQZ) AI Stock Analysis
Alliance Aviation Services Limited
(ASX:AQZ)
The score is held down primarily by weakened financial performance (latest-year loss, elevated leverage, and persistently negative free cash flow) and bearish technical trends (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). The earnings call provides partial offset via FY2027 guidance and cost-out initiatives, but execution risk remains high, and valuation support is limited by a negative P/E and no provided dividend yield.
Alliance Aviation Services Limited (AQZ) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
- Market Cap
- AUD 75.70M
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 704.80K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -0.8
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.87
- Revenue Growth
- -8.75%
- EPS Growth
- -258.45%
- Country
- Australia
- Employees
- 1,350
- Sector
- Industrials
- Sector Strength
- 63
- Industry
- Airlines, Airports & Air Services
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alliance Aviation Services Ltd. offers a comprehensive suite of aviation services, encompassing contract flying, charter operations, and related support, catering to the mining, energy, tourism, and government industries across Australia and internat...
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Earnings Call Summary
The call presented a business undergoing a significant turnaround. Management highlighted improving second-half profitability, cost reductions, a revised Qantas agreement, balance sheet actions, and FY2027 earnings guidance, but these positives were offset by lower revenue and flight hours, statutory losses, sharply reduced operating cash flow, higher net debt, elevated maintenance requirements, workforce rightsizing, and execution dependence on asset sales and the turnaround plan.
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For FY 2027, Alliance is guiding to underlying EBITDA between AUD 175 million and AUD 190 million and underlying profit before tax of AUD 55 million to AUD 60 million, with AUD 27 million of cost savings in FY 2027 and an annualized cost reduction of AUD 38 million from FY 2028; BAU CapEx and stay in business CapEx are AUD 137 million, D&A expense is AUD 90 million, interest is AUD 40 million, restructuring costs in total are about AUD 12 million and could be less, the operating fleet is expected to be around 72, the revised Qantas arrangement is expected to reach 23 aircraft by July 1 next year, asset-sale proceeds are targeted at approximately AUD 60 million to AUD 75 million or more through this financial year, and net debt to underlying EBITDA is targeted at approximately 2.1 times by 30 June 2027, subject to timing and execution risk on surplus asset sales and normal operating assumptions and risks, including aircraft utilization, customer demand, fuel costs, labor availability, and economic conditions.
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are pressured: the income statement shows a sharp swing to a net loss and a meaningful revenue pullback in the latest year despite positive operating profit. Leverage remains elevated and equity declined, while cash generation is the weakest area with inconsistent operating cash flow and persistently negative free cash flow.
Income Statement
46NeutralBalance Sheet
55NeutralCash Flow
34Negative| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 693.12M | 693.12M | 760.87M | 637.19M | 506.42M | 365.45M |
| Gross Profit | 68.83M | 68.83M | 493.29M | 192.76M | 75.81M | 23.42M |
| EBITDA | 142.34M | 142.34M | 205.74M | 177.53M | 122.27M | 47.61M |
| Net Income | -90.88M | -90.88M | 57.32M | 60.45M | 36.46M | -5.21M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.10B | 1.10B | 1.21B | 998.79M | 779.78M | 666.49M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 29.19M | 29.19M | 96.49M | 31.23M | 22.32M | 20.89M |
| Total Debt | 510.46M | 510.46M | 513.47M | 366.84M | 263.37M | 219.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 731.33M | 731.33M | 736.57M | 588.05M | 430.01M | 353.04M |
| Stockholders Equity | 373.10M | 373.10M | 468.54M | 410.74M | 349.77M | 313.45M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -73.75M | -73.75M | -70.04M | -90.41M | -56.06M | -46.86M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.70M | 17.70M | 105.64M | 24.74M | 40.88M | 52.45M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -91.45M | -91.45M | -175.67M | -115.09M | -81.91M | -99.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 6.45M | 6.45M | 135.28M | 99.26M | 42.45M | 31.53M |
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AQZ, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.41, below the 50-day MA of 0.50, and below the 200-day MA of 0.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:AQZ.
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
AU:QAN62Neutral
AU:VGN61Neutral- AU:AQZ45Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector * | 63Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
| AU:QAN | 62Neutral | AUD 14.79B | 11.73 | 90.68% | 4.00% | 7.60% | -18.83% |
| AU:VGN | 61Neutral | AUD 2.14B | 3.77 | -174.87% | 2.66% | 9.37% | 1.82% |
| AU:AQZ | 45Neutral | AUD 95.00M | -0.85 | -24.86% | ― | -8.75% | -258.45% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AU:AQZ | Alliance Aviation Services Limited | 0.43 | -0.83 | -65.61% | |
| AU:QAN | Qantas Airways Limited | 9.90 | 0.50 | 5.32% | |
| AU:VGN | Virgin Australia Holdings Limited | 2.86 | -0.21 | -6.90% |
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Corporate Events
Alliance Aviation Reports Stewart Tully’s Director Departure
Alliance Aviation Services Limited disclosed that Stewart Tully ceased being a director on 29 October 2026. At that date, Tully held a direct interest in 133,932 ordinary shares, including 38,303 performance rights that vested on the same day; the no...
Alliance Aviation Corrects Formatting Error in AGM Notice
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has issued a correction to its 2026 Notice of Annual General Meeting after discovering a formatting error that led to the omission of the bottom rows of a dilution table. The company has released a fully corrected n...
Alliance Aviation Performance Rights Lapse, Trimming Potential Share Dilution
Alliance Aviation Services Limited, an ASX-listed aviation services provider trading under the code AQZ, structures its capital to include performance-based rights alongside ordinary equity. These instruments support incentive schemes for staff and m...
Alliance Aviation Expands Quoted Share Capital With New ASX Listing
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 38,303 new ordinary fully paid shares under its ticker AQZ. The modest issuance expands the company’s quoted share capital, potentially improving liquidity for shareholders wh...
Alliance Aviation Sets Date for 2026 Annual General Meeting
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has released the Notice of its 2026 Annual General Meeting, along with the associated proxy form, to its shareholders. The meeting is scheduled for 26 November 2026 at 11:00 A.M. AEST in Brisbane, signaling the next...
Alliance Aviation Director Simon Lange Increases Indirect Shareholding
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has disclosed a change in director Simon Lange’s indirect shareholding, reflecting an increased personal stake in the company. Lange’s interest is held through Merino Peaks Pty Ltd, where he serves as a director and...
Alliance Aviation Director Boosts Stake Through Entitlement Offer
Alliance Aviation Services director Bernard Campbell has increased his direct holding in the company, signalling confidence in the group’s current capital management strategy. Following the latest transaction, Campbell’s stake rose from 107,231 to 16...
Alliance Aviation Director Boosts Stake Through Entitlement Offer
Alliance Aviation Services has disclosed a change in director James Jackson’s holdings, with an increase in both direct and indirect interests in ordinary shares of the company. The additional shares were acquired through participation in the retail...
Alliance Aviation Seeks ASX Quotation for 12.2 Million New Shares
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has applied for quotation of 12,236,462 ordinary fully paid shares on the Australian Securities Exchange, with the new securities to be issued and quoted on September 18, 2026. The move expands the company’s listed...
Alliance Aviation Sets Date and Director Nomination Deadline for 2026 AGM
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has scheduled its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 26 November in Brisbane, outlining key deadlines for governance-related processes. The company has invited written nominations for director positions, which must be...
Alliance Aviation Secures $40m in Capital Raising as Retail Entitlement Offer Closes
Alliance Aviation Services has completed the retail component of its accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer, providing one new share for every 5.6 existing shares at $0.70, with retail investors taking up around 10.6% of the $6.9 million avai...
Citigroup Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Alliance Aviation Services
Citigroup Global Markets Australia Pty Limited and related Citi group entities have notified Alliance Aviation Services that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders as of 11 September 2026, following a reduction in their relevant interests in...
Alliance Aviation Director Simon Lange Increases Indirect Shareholding
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has disclosed a change in director Simon Lange’s relevant interests in the company’s securities, reflecting an increase in his indirect shareholding via Merino Peaks Pty Ltd. The transaction, conducted as an on‑mark...
Alliance Aviation Expands Quoted Share Capital with New AQZ Securities
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has lodged an application with the ASX for quotation of 57,433 new ordinary fully paid shares in the company. The securities, issued on 8 September 2026 and to be traded under the existing AQZ code, arise from the e...
Alliance Aviation Issues New Shares via Institutional Placement
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has issued 44,997,660 fully paid ordinary shares as part of an institutional placement linked to an accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer announced in late August 2026. The new issuance expands the company’...
Alliance Aviation Seeks ASX Quotation for 44.9m New Shares
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 44,997,660 ordinary fully paid shares, with an issue date of 7 September 2026. The new securities, to be traded under the AQZ code, expand the company’s quoted capital base an...
Citi Group Exits Substantial Holder Position in Alliance Aviation
Alliance Aviation Services Limited, listed on the ASX under ticker AQZ, provides aviation transport services using a fleet focused on charter and fly-in fly-out operations that support corporate and resource-sector clients. Its ordinary fully paid sh...
Alliance Aviation Clarifies Oversubscription Terms in Entitlement Offer Update
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has updated its proposed securities issue announcement on the ASX, clarifying terms for an accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer. The revision confirms that investors will be allowed to oversubscribe for ad...
Alliance Aviation Opens Retail Offer in A$40m Capital Raising
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has opened the retail component of its fully underwritten accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer, giving eligible retail shareholders the chance to subscribe for new shares at A$0.70 each on a pro rata basis...
Alliance Aviation Director Increases Indirect Shareholding
Alliance Aviation Services has disclosed a change in director Simon Lange’s indirect shareholding following an on-market purchase by Merino Peaks Pty Ltd, a company of which he is a director. The transaction, completed on 1 September 2026, increased...
Alliance Aviation Director James Jackson Increases Indirect Shareholding
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has disclosed a change in the shareholding of director James Jackson, who holds interests in the company both directly and through associated entities Federal Pacific Holdings Pty Ltd and Mistover Pty Ltd. These str...
Alliance Aviation secures $33m from institutional equity raising
Alliance Aviation Services has completed the institutional component of its $40 million equity raising, securing about $33 million through a fully underwritten placement and accelerated entitlement offer at $0.70 per share. Strong demand from existin...
Alliance Aviation Corrects Details on Accelerated Entitlement Offer
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has updated its disclosure to the ASX regarding a proposed securities issue under an accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer. The company has corrected the previously stated maximum number of securities to be...
Alliance Aviation Corrects Timetable for Accelerated Capital Raising
Alliance Aviation Services has lodged an updated notice with the ASX regarding a proposed issue of securities, clarifying details of its capital-raising activities. The update corrects the closing date for both an institutional placement and an accel...
Alliance Aviation unveils major accelerated entitlement offer and placement
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has announced a proposed issue of new ordinary fully paid shares on the ASX, structured as both an accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer and a placement. The combined offers contemplate up to 28,473,256 new...
Alliance Aviation launches entitlement offer with limited impact on control
Alliance Aviation Services has launched a pro-rata accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer, giving eligible shareholders in Australia, New Zealand and certain other approved markets the chance to subscribe for one new fully paid ordinary share...
Alliance Aviation Files FY26 Annual Report with ASX
Alliance Aviation Services has notified the Australian Securities Exchange that it has lodged its Appendix 4E and FY26 Annual Report via the ASX Market Announcement Platform. The filing provides the market with the company’s full-year financial discl...
Alliance Aviation Extends Trading Halt for Accelerated Entitlement Offer
Alliance Aviation Services Limited, trading as Alliance Airlines, is an Australian aviation operator that provides commercial and charter air services to institutional, corporate and resource-sector clients. Listed on the ASX as AQZ, the company focu...
Alliance Aviation Seeks ASX Trading Halt Amid Capital Raising Talks
Alliance Aviation Services has requested a trading halt in its securities on the ASX from the start of trading on 24 August 2026. The halt will remain in place until either an announcement is made about a potential capital raising or normal trading r...
Alliance Aviation appoints industry veteran Steven Greenway as new CEO
Alliance Aviation Services has announced a leadership transition, with long-serving Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Stewart Tully stepping down after more than 11 years at the helm. Tully will remain with the business until late October...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 13, 2026