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Alliance Aviation Services Limited
(Sydney:AQZ)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.57
â–¼(-54.19% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened FY2026 profitability, elevated leverage, and persistently negative free cash flow. Turnaround guidance and cost-out plans from the earnings call provide some support, while technicals remain weak overall despite oversold signals and valuation is mixed due to a negative P/E partially offset by a mid-single-digit dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Contracted Revenue Base
A predominantly contracted revenue base supports visibility and reduces reliance on retail ticket sales or spot demand. Long-term relationships with blue-chip customers can reinforce Alliance’s market position and provide a durable foundation for fleet and operating decisions.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Generation
Persistently negative free cash flow and the sharp operating cash flow decline weaken Alliance’s ability to fund fleet needs, maintenance and debt service internally. This increases reliance on financing, asset sales or improved earnings to restore financial flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Contracted Revenue Base
A predominantly contracted revenue base supports visibility and reduces reliance on retail ticket sales or spot demand. Long-term relationships with blue-chip customers can reinforce Alliance’s market position and provide a durable foundation for fleet and operating decisions.
Read all positive factors
Alliance Aviation Services Limited (AQZ) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$110.10M
Dividend Yield5%
Average Volume (3M)1.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.91
Revenue Growth-8.75%
EPS Growth-258.45%
CountryAU
Employees1,350
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.57
Shares Outstanding189,821,720
10 Day Avg. Volume925,127
30 Day Avg. Volume1,064,502
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.25
Price to Sales (P/S)0.13
P/FCF Ratio-1.24
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$0.87Price Target Upside-29.84% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$679.96M
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alliance Aviation Services Ltd. offers a comprehensive suite of aviation services, encompassing contract flying, charter operations, and related support, catering to the mining, energy, tourism, and government industries across Australia and inter...
How the Company Makes Money
Alliance Aviation Services makes money primarily by selling aircraft capacity and flight operations under contract, rather than relying mainly on retail ticket sales. Key revenue streams include: (1) Wet-lease / capacity services: Alliance provide...
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a business undergoing a significant turnaround. Management highlighted improving second-half profitability, cost reductions, a revised Qantas agreement, balance sheet actions, and FY2027 earnings guidance, but these positives were offset by lower revenue and flight hours, statutory losses, sharply reduced operating cash flow, higher net debt, elevated maintenance requirements, workforce rightsizing, and execution dependence on asset sales and the turnaround plan.Positive Updates
Underlying FY2026 Profitability and Second-Half Recovery
Alliance delivered underlying revenue of AUD 712.6 million, underlying EBITDA of AUD 177.5 million, underlying profit before tax of AUD 38.2 million, and underlying NPAT of AUD 26.8 million. Underlying profit before tax increased 61% from the first half to the second half, supported by improved cost control, stronger charter performance, and early benefits from the strategic reset and performance improvement programs.
Negative Updates
Lower Revenue and Flight Hours
Revenue and flight hours were lower than FY2025, reflecting the planned end of aviation trading activity and reduced wet lease flying under the revised Qantas arrangement.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Underlying FY2026 Profitability and Second-Half Recovery
Alliance delivered underlying revenue of AUD 712.6 million, underlying EBITDA of AUD 177.5 million, underlying profit before tax of AUD 38.2 million, and underlying NPAT of AUD 26.8 million. Underlying profit before tax increased 61% from the first half to the second half, supported by improved cost control, stronger charter performance, and early benefits from the strategic reset and performance improvement programs.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For FY 2027, Alliance is guiding to underlying EBITDA between AUD 175 million and AUD 190 million and underlying profit before tax of AUD 55 million to AUD 60 million, with AUD 27 million of cost savings in FY 2027 and an annualized cost reduction of AUD 38 million from FY 2028; BAU CapEx and stay in business CapEx are AUD 137 million, D&A expense is AUD 90 million, interest is AUD 40 million, restructuring costs in total are about AUD 12 million and could be less, the operating fleet is expected to be around 72, the revised Qantas arrangement is expected to reach 23 aircraft by July 1 next year, asset-sale proceeds are targeted at approximately AUD 60 million to AUD 75 million or more through this financial year, and net debt to underlying EBITDA is targeted at approximately 2.1 times by 30 June 2027, subject to timing and execution risk on surplus asset sales and normal operating assumptions and risks, including aircraft utilization, customer demand, fuel costs, labor availability, and economic conditions.Alliance Aviation Services Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 693.12M | 760.87M | 637.19M | 506.42M | 365.45M |
| Gross Profit | 68.83M | 493.29M | 192.76M | 75.81M | 23.42M |
| EBITDA | 142.34M | 205.74M | 177.53M | 122.27M | 47.61M |
| Net Income | -90.88M | 57.32M | 60.45M | 36.46M | -5.21M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.10B | 1.21B | 998.79M | 779.78M | 666.49M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 29.19M | 96.49M | 31.23M | 22.32M | 20.89M |
| Total Debt | 510.46M | 513.47M | 366.84M | 263.37M | 219.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 731.33M | 736.57M | 588.05M | 430.01M | 353.04M |
| Stockholders Equity | 373.10M | 468.54M | 410.74M | 349.77M | 313.45M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -73.75M | -70.04M | -90.41M | -56.06M | -46.86M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.70M | 105.64M | 24.74M | 40.88M | 52.45M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -91.45M | -175.67M | -115.09M | -81.91M | -99.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 6.45M | 135.28M | 99.26M | 42.45M | 31.53M |
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
1.24
Price Trends
0.67
Negative
0.61
Negative
0.76
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.03
Positive
30.72
Neutral
3.86
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AQZ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.75, above the 50-day MA of 0.67, and above the 200-day MA of 0.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.86 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AQZ.
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | AU$13.55B | 10.67 | 90.68% | 4.98% | 7.60% | -18.83% | |
58 Neutral | AU$2.05B | 3.55 | -174.87% | 0.00% | 9.37% | 1.82% | |
46 Neutral | AU$110.10M | -1.02 | -24.86% | 5.00% | -8.75% | -258.45% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AU:AQZ
Alliance Aviation Services Limited
0.58
-1.62
-73.67%
AU:QAN
Qantas Airways Limited
9.07
-1.71
-15.85%
AU:VGN
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited
2.73
-0.54
-16.51%
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Corporate Events
Alliance Aviation Director Simon Lange Increases Indirect Shareholding
Sep 8, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has disclosed a change in director Simon Lange’s relevant interests in the company’s securities, reflecting an increase in his indirect shareholding via Merino Peaks Pty Ltd. The transaction, conducte...
Alliance Aviation Expands Quoted Share Capital with New AQZ Securities
Sep 8, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has lodged an application with the ASX for quotation of 57,433 new ordinary fully paid shares in the company. The securities, issued on 8 September 2026 and to be traded under the existing AQZ code, arise from th...
Alliance Aviation Issues New Shares via Institutional Placement
Sep 6, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has issued 44,997,660 fully paid ordinary shares as part of an institutional placement linked to an accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer announced in late August 2026. The new issuance expands the compa...
Alliance Aviation Seeks ASX Quotation for 44.9m New Shares
Sep 4, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 44,997,660 ordinary fully paid shares, with an issue date of 7 September 2026. The new securities, to be traded under the AQZ code, expand the company’s quoted capita...
Citi Group Exits Substantial Holder Position in Alliance Aviation
Sep 3, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services Limited, listed on the ASX under ticker AQZ, provides aviation transport services using a fleet focused on charter and fly-in fly-out operations that support corporate and resource-sector clients. Its ordinary fully paid...
Alliance Aviation Clarifies Oversubscription Terms in Entitlement Offer Update
Sep 2, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has updated its proposed securities issue announcement on the ASX, clarifying terms for an accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer. The revision confirms that investors will be allowed to oversubscribe for...
Alliance Aviation Opens Retail Offer in A$40m Capital Raising
Sep 1, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has opened the retail component of its fully underwritten accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer, giving eligible retail shareholders the chance to subscribe for new shares at A$0.70 each on a pro rata ba...
Alliance Aviation Director Increases Indirect Shareholding
Sep 1, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services has disclosed a change in director Simon Lange’s indirect shareholding following an on-market purchase by Merino Peaks Pty Ltd, a company of which he is a director. The transaction, completed on 1 September 2026, i...
Alliance Aviation Director James Jackson Increases Indirect Shareholding
Aug 31, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has disclosed a change in the shareholding of director James Jackson, who holds interests in the company both directly and through associated entities Federal Pacific Holdings Pty Ltd and Mistover Pty Ltd. These ...
Alliance Aviation secures $33m from institutional equity raising
Aug 27, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services has completed the institutional component of its $40 million equity raising, securing about $33 million through a fully underwritten placement and accelerated entitlement offer at $0.70 per share. Strong demand from exis...
Alliance Aviation Corrects Details on Accelerated Entitlement Offer
Aug 26, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has updated its disclosure to the ASX regarding a proposed securities issue under an accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer. The company has corrected the previously stated maximum number of securities to...
Alliance Aviation Corrects Timetable for Accelerated Capital Raising
Aug 26, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services has lodged an updated notice with the ASX regarding a proposed issue of securities, clarifying details of its capital-raising activities. The update corrects the closing date for both an institutional placement and an ac...
Alliance Aviation unveils major accelerated entitlement offer and placement
Aug 26, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has announced a proposed issue of new ordinary fully paid shares on the ASX, structured as both an accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer and a placement. The combined offers contemplate up to 28,473,256 ...
Alliance Aviation launches entitlement offer with limited impact on control
Aug 26, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services has launched a pro-rata accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer, giving eligible shareholders in Australia, New Zealand and certain other approved markets the chance to subscribe for one new fully paid ordinary sh...
Alliance Aviation Files FY26 Annual Report with ASX
Aug 26, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services has notified the Australian Securities Exchange that it has lodged its Appendix 4E and FY26 Annual Report via the ASX Market Announcement Platform. The filing provides the market with the company’s full-year financ...
Alliance Aviation Extends Trading Halt for Accelerated Entitlement Offer
Aug 26, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services Limited, trading as Alliance Airlines, is an Australian aviation operator that provides commercial and charter air services to institutional, corporate and resource-sector clients. Listed on the ASX as AQZ, the company f...
Alliance Aviation Seeks ASX Trading Halt Amid Capital Raising Talks
Aug 24, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services has requested a trading halt in its securities on the ASX from the start of trading on 24 August 2026. The halt will remain in place until either an announcement is made about a potential capital raising or normal tradin...
Alliance Aviation appoints industry veteran Steven Greenway as new CEO
Aug 18, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services has announced a leadership transition, with long-serving Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Stewart Tully stepping down after more than 11 years at the helm. Tully will remain with the business until late Octo...
Alliance flags FY27 profit uplift as Qantas wet lease overhaul reshapes operations
Aug 6, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services has clarified that its revised wet lease agreement with Qantas, announced earlier this week, will be accompanied by operational initiatives and organisational changes, including right sizing the business. The company emp...
Alliance Aviation resets Qantas wet lease, trims fleet and confirms FY26 profit guidance
Aug 5, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services has renegotiated its wet lease agreement with Qantas, securing higher pricing from July 2026 and an improved annual escalation mechanism to better track future cost increases. The deal also introduces a staged reduction ...
Alliance Aviation Sets Date for FY26 Results and Investor Webcast
Jul 30, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services will release its full-year financial results for the year ended 30 June 2026 on 25 August 2026, marking a key disclosure event for shareholders and market participants. The company will follow the results announcement wi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.