Want to see AU:QAN full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Qantas Airways Limited
(Sydney:QAN)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
AU$9.00
â–Ľ(-2.70% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
The score is held back primarily by financial quality concerns (high leverage, margin compression, and a return to slightly negative free cash flow) and weak technical momentum. These are partially offset by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and a generally positive earnings-call outlook with improving unit-revenue guidance and a multi-year efficiency/fleet plan.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Qantas has continued rebuilding and expanding its revenue base after the downturn, showing sustained demand across its domestic, regional and international operations. Positive profitability alongside growth supports ongoing fleet investment and indicates that the business retains meaningful earnings power.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
The aggressive capital structure leaves Qantas more exposed to earnings volatility than a less leveraged airline, particularly because aviation demand and costs can be cyclical. High debt relative to equity may constrain financial flexibility and compete with fleet investment for future cash resources.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Qantas has continued rebuilding and expanding its revenue base after the downturn, showing sustained demand across its domestic, regional and international operations. Positive profitability alongside growth supports ongoing fleet investment and indicates that the business retains meaningful earnings power.
Read all positive factors
Qantas Airways Limited (QAN) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$13.14B
Dividend Yield4.51%
Average Volume (3M)6.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.3
Beta (1Y)1.30
Revenue Growth7.60%
EPS Growth-18.83%
CountryAU
Employees32,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.85
Shares Outstanding1,513,199,200
10 Day Avg. Volume7,135,930
30 Day Avg. Volume6,053,378
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.66
Price to Book (P/B)10.70
Price to Sales (P/S)0.64
P/FCF Ratio-79.78
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$11.53Price Target Upside24.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$27.39B
Qantas Airways Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Headquartered in Mascot, Australia, Qantas Airways Limited is an airline providing extensive air transportation services, both domestically within Australia and internationally. Its business is organized into several key segments: Qantas Domestic,...
How the Company Makes Money
Qantas primarily makes money by selling passenger air travel and earning ancillary revenue tied to travel. The largest revenue stream is passenger ticket sales across its route network, with pricing influenced by cabin class, route demand, seasona...
Qantas Airways Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational and cash performance, robust loyalty growth, and a clear multi-year fleet-driven earnings uplift plan (notably for Qantas International and Project Sunrise). Management acknowledged near-term headwinds from the Middle East conflict, higher fuel and industry costs, one-off statutory impacts and entry-into-service costs, but emphasized balance-sheet strength, continued investment in fleet renewal, transformation savings ($455m) and an optimistic TRASK-led outlook for H1 FY'27. On balance, the positives around cash generation, fleet strategy, loyalty resilience and operational metrics outweigh the short-term challenges.Positive Updates
Strong cash generation and liquidity
Operating cash flow of $3.9 billion for FY'26 and liquidity in excess of $13 billion supported ongoing investment and balance sheet strength; net debt ended the year at $6.2 billion (midpoint of target range $5.5–$6.9bn).
Negative Updates
Underlying profit decline driven by geopolitical shock
Underlying profit before tax of $2.064 billion, down $330 million on FY'25; results included a net $420 million earnings impact from the Middle East conflict in Q4.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong cash generation and liquidity
Operating cash flow of $3.9 billion for FY'26 and liquidity in excess of $13 billion supported ongoing investment and balance sheet strength; net debt ended the year at $6.2 billion (midpoint of target range $5.5–$6.9bn).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management moved to TRASK-based guidance and expects group total unit revenue (TRASK) to rise 8–10% in H1 FY27 for both Domestic and International (inclusive of announced capacity), with H1 FY27 jet fuel cash cost ~A$3.6bn (assumes market jet fuel A$197/bbl) and Brent hedged ~85% for H1; FY27 CapEx is guided to A$4.3–4.6bn (FY26 CapEx A$4.0bn), Qantas Loyalty underlying EBIT is expected to grow 5–7% in FY27 (on track to a FY30 target of A$800m–A$1bn), and Qantas International aims to lift EBIT margin from 4% in FY26 to ~10% by FY31 (10–12% beyond) with Project Sunrise delivering ~A$400m uplift by FY31 (EIS costs ~A$150m in FY28–29). The group also flagged A380 retirements from mid‑2028 unlocking ~A$300m net cash flow benefit FY28–31, reiterated balance‑sheet strength (net debt A$6.2bn at FY26 within target A$5.5–6.9bn, liquidity >A$13bn) and confirmed a fully franked FY26 final base dividend of A$300m (A$600m total for FY26) while pausing the A$150m on‑market buyback.Qantas Airways Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 25.19B | 23.82B | 21.62B | 19.52B | 8.70B |
| Gross Profit | 4.81B | 7.95B | 11.46B | 10.97B | 4.52B |
| EBITDA | 4.19B | 4.49B | 3.90B | 4.60B | 945.00M |
| Net Income | 1.29B | 1.60B | 1.25B | 1.75B | -860.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 27.03B | 23.36B | 20.56B | 20.35B | 19.65B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.27B | 2.21B | 1.98B | 3.17B | 3.34B |
| Total Debt | 10.35B | 7.96B | 6.59B | 6.73B | 7.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 25.53B | 22.57B | 20.27B | 20.34B | 19.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.50B | 778.00M | 289.00M | 5.00M | -197.00M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -201.00M | 335.00M | 680.00M | 2.49B | 1.75B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.77B | 4.25B | 3.35B | 5.05B | 2.65B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.85B | -3.81B | -2.89B | -2.59B | -225.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.16B | 42.00M | -2.01B | -2.63B | -1.31B |
Qantas Airways Limited Technical Analysis
Neutral
9.25
Price Trends
8.82
Negative
9.42
Negative
9.19
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.09
Negative
51.78
Neutral
72.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:QAN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.53, above the 50-day MA of 8.82, and above the 200-day MA of 9.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:QAN.
Qantas Airways Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | AU$1.09B | 17.39 | 6.66% | 4.50% | 8.77% | 16.48% | |
59 Neutral | AU$13.14B | 10.34 | 90.68% | 4.51% | 7.60% | -18.83% | |
58 Neutral | AU$6.55B | 18.61 | 8.96% | 5.91% | 5.89% | 21.43% | |
58 Neutral | AU$1.81B | 3.13 | -174.87% | 3.15% | 9.37% | 1.82% | |
45 Neutral | AU$85.16M | -0.69 | -24.86% | 5.74% | -8.75% | -258.45% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AU:QAN
Qantas Airways Limited
8.79
-0.95
-9.79%
AU:AZJ
Aurizon Holdings
3.89
0.66
20.32%
AU:AQZ
Alliance Aviation Services Limited
0.39
-2.05
-84.04%
AU:KLS
Kelsian Group Limited
4.00
-0.65
-14.03%
AU:VGN
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited
2.41
-0.81
-25.09%
Qantas Airways Limited Corporate Events
Qantas Director Alison Watkins Lifts Indirect Shareholding via Family Super Fund
Oct 13, 2026
Qantas Airways has reported a change in the securities held indirectly by non-executive director Alison Watkins through the RJ AM Watkins Superannuation Fund Pty Ltd, a private investment vehicle for the Watkins family. Following on-market trades...
Qantas Files 2026 AGM Notice and Materials with ASX
Sep 24, 2026
Qantas Airways has released the official notice for its 2026 Annual General Meeting, lodging the documentation with the ASX in line with listing requirements. The package includes the AGM notice, voting and question forms, a virtual meeting guide ...
Qantas CEO Vanessa Hudson Boosts Equity Stake Through Incentive Share Awards
Sep 11, 2026
Qantas has disclosed changes in CEO Vanessa Hudson’s interests in Qantas securities, reflecting awards and vesting under the airline’s executive incentive schemes. Hudson received 71,424 restricted shares under the 2025/26 Short Term I...
Qantas Updates Director John Mullen’s Equity Holdings Under Fee Sacrifice Plan
Sep 4, 2026
Qantas has disclosed changes in the indirect shareholdings of non-executive director John Patrick Mullen under the company’s Non-Executive Director Fee Sacrifice Share Plan. The update details the automatic conversion of previously granted r...
Qantas Issues New Unquoted NED Rights Under Incentive Scheme
Sep 4, 2026
Qantas Airways Limited has notified the market of the issue of 32,654 unquoted securities classified as NED Rights under an employee incentive scheme. The rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, were issued on 4 September 2026, und...
Qantas Issues New Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Sep 4, 2026
Qantas Airways Limited is Australia’s flagship carrier and one of the country’s largest airlines, operating domestic and international passenger and freight services. Listed on the ASX under the ticker QAN, the company plays a central ...
Qantas CEO Adjusts Shareholding After Incentive Vesting and Tax-Driven Sale
Aug 28, 2026
Qantas Airways has disclosed a change in the shareholdings of its CEO and Managing Director, Vanessa Hudson, following the vesting of long-term incentive rights and a subsequent share sale. The airline reported that Hudson sold 74,750 Qantas share...
Qantas Reports Lapse of 236,689 Performance Rights
Aug 27, 2026
Qantas Airways Limited has notified the market of the lapse of 236,689 performance rights, which were conditional rights to securities that ceased because the vesting conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation of...
Qantas Issues New Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Aug 27, 2026
Qantas Airways Limited has notified the market of the issue and transfer of 1,793,169 ordinary fully paid shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted equity securities. The move modestly increases the company’s share c...
Qantas Files 2026 Corporate Governance Statement with ASX
Aug 26, 2026
Qantas Airways has lodged its 2026 Appendix 4G and Corporate Governance Statement with the ASX, confirming compliance with disclosure obligations under the exchange’s listing rules. The governance statement, current as at 27 August 2026, is ...
Qantas Flags Draft Investor Update on International Operations
Aug 26, 2026
Qantas Airways Limited has lodged an investor presentation providing an update on its Qantas International and Freight division. The update, presented by division CEO Cam Wallace, is described as a draft with no decisions yet made, indicating that...
Qantas Publishes FY26 Results and Hosts Investor Webcast
Aug 26, 2026
Qantas Airways has released its FY26 results investor presentation and a supplementary deck, signalling the latest financial and operational update for the group. Senior executives, including the Group CEO, CFO and the head of Qantas International...
Qantas Lodges 2026 Group Sustainability Report with ASX
Aug 26, 2026
Qantas Airways Limited has released its Qantas Group Sustainability Report 2026, outlining the company’s latest disclosures on environmental, social and governance performance. The report’s publication underscores Qantas’ ongoing...
Qantas Scraps Planned $150 Million Share Buy-Back
Aug 26, 2026
Qantas Airways Limited has announced that its board will not proceed with the previously planned $150 million on-market share buy-back that was unveiled in February 2026. The buy-back related to ordinary shares under the ASX code QAN and was part ...
Qantas Declares Interim Dividend for June 2026 Period
Aug 26, 2026
Qantas Airways has announced a new interim dividend of AUD 0.198 per ordinary fully paid share for the six‑month period ending 30 June 2026. The stock will trade ex‑dividend on 15 September, with a record date of 16 September and payme...
Qantas Grows Revenue but Profits Slip as It Prioritises Dividends Over Buy-Back
Aug 26, 2026
Qantas reported revenue and other income of $25,516 million for the year to 30 June 2026, up 7.1 per cent on the prior year, but statutory profit before tax fell 19.2 per cent to $1,828 million and profit after tax declined 19.7 per cent to $1,289...
Perpetual Ends Substantial Holding in Qantas
Jul 29, 2026
Perpetual Limited and its related bodies corporate have notified Qantas that they ceased to be a substantial holder in the airline on 27 July 2026. The change reflects a reduction in Perpetual’s relevant interest in Qantas voting securities ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.