Want to see AU:EDV full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Endeavour Group Ltd
(Sydney:EDV)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
AU$3.00
▼(-10.45% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/26/26
The score is held back mainly by weakened financial performance (sharp FY2026 margin and ROE deterioration amid meaningful leverage) and bearish technicals (price below major moving averages with negative momentum). These are partly offset by moderate valuation with a high dividend yield and an earnings-call backdrop that combines improving sales/customer metrics and a defined cost-out plan, but with clearly elevated near-term investment, cash-flow, and leverage pressure.
Positive Factors
Retail momentum and digital engagement
Improving sales, value scores and digital engagement support stronger customer retention and purchasing frequency. These trends can reinforce Endeavour’s scale advantage and help sustain growth across its large omnichannel retail platform.
Negative Factors
Sharp profitability deterioration
The sharp earnings decline reduces operating leverage and leaves less room to absorb costs, competition or weaker demand. Sustained margin pressure would constrain reinvestment, debt reduction and dividend capacity even if revenue remains broadly stable.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Retail momentum and digital engagement
Improving sales, value scores and digital engagement support stronger customer retention and purchasing frequency. These trends can reinforce Endeavour’s scale advantage and help sustain growth across its large omnichannel retail platform.
Read all positive factors
Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$5.49B
Dividend Yield5.43%
Average Volume (3M)2.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)102.8
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth1.28%
EPS Growth-87.89%
CountryAU
Employees30,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding1,795,725,700
10 Day Avg. Volume2,547,397
30 Day Avg. Volume2,908,436
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.27
Price to Book (P/B)1.62
Price to Sales (P/S)0.48
P/FCF Ratio14.60
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$3.04Price Target Upside-9.13% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$12.47B
Endeavour Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Endeavour Group Limited, an Australian entity, operates across the retail drinks and hospitality sectors. The company's business model is structured around its Retail, Hotels, and Other segments. It is engaged in the production and sale of beverag...
How the Company Makes Money
Endeavour Group primarily makes money through two operating segments: (1) Retail liquor and (2) Hotels. In Retail liquor, revenue is generated mainly from selling alcoholic beverages (beer, wine, spirits and ready-to-drink products) and a smaller ...
Endeavour Group Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 23, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Feb 22, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call describes clear operational momentum (notably retail sales acceleration, record customer scores, strong hotels trading in key areas, successful hotel renewals and a disciplined strategic plan including a $300m cost-out target). However, that progress is tempered by material near-term financial pressures: declines in underlying EBIT and profit, a large pretax significant-item charge ($372m), negative free cash flow, higher net debt and elevated near-term CapEx/OpEx to fund transformation. Management emphasizes execution and expects returns from the investments, while also cautioning on consumer uncertainty. Overall the results present a balanced picture: solid strategic and operational positives offset by meaningful short-term profitability and cash-flow challenges.Positive Updates
Group Sales Growth
Group sales increased 1.3% year-on-year, with underlying operating cash flow of $933m and an underlying cash realization ratio of 93%.
Negative Updates
Profitability Decline
Group underlying EBIT declined 8.7% year-on-year; retail underlying EBIT fell 17.6% to $464m driven by gross margin compression and inflationary cost pressures; underlying profit before tax declined 13.1% to $544m.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Sales Growth
Group sales increased 1.3% year-on-year, with underlying operating cash flow of $933m and an underlying cash realization ratio of 93%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that FY27 will be a year of heavy investment and execution: total CapEx is targeted at $550–650m (including up to $60m incremental growth CapEx), One Endeavour spend is expected at $125–145m in FY27, OpEx is forecast to rise by $40–60m, and the group reaffirmed a $300m cost‑out target to F'29 (including $100m in F'27, ~70% of those initiatives already executed with roughly $85m from retail and $15m from hotels); hotels remediation is estimated up to $120m over three years and F'27 hotel renewals are budgeted at $130–160m to upgrade up to ~75 venues; finance costs are guided to $330–340m in F'27, net debt rose $198m in F'26 with underlying leverage 1.9x (pre‑AASB16) and $990m of undrawn facilities, underlying operating cash flow was $933m (cash realization 93%) with underlying free cash flow -$182m in F'26 and significant items of $372m pretax, the dividend policy was revised to a 50–75% payout ratio (FY26 payout 59%, final dividend $0.012), and management noted early FY27 trading of retail +4.6% and hotels +2.2% in the first seven weeks while accepting near‑term elevated leverage to fund the transformation.Endeavour Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.21B | 12.06B | 12.31B | 11.88B | 11.60B |
| Gross Profit | 4.20B | 4.23B | 4.25B | 4.02B | 3.63B |
| EBITDA | 1.07B | 1.42B | 1.47B | 1.42B | 1.28B |
| Net Income | 52.00M | 426.00M | 512.00M | 529.00M | 495.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 11.73B | 11.73B | 11.78B | 11.67B | 10.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 330.00M | 318.00M | 293.00M | 290.00M | 294.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.93B | 5.82B | 6.07B | 6.09B | 5.32B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.15B | 7.90B | 8.01B | 7.96B | 7.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.59B | 3.83B | 3.77B | 3.71B | 3.56B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 399.00M | 816.00M | 791.00M | 361.00M | 668.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 893.00M | 1.15B | 1.21B | 769.00M | 953.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -459.00M | -299.00M | -441.00M | -519.00M | -275.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -422.00M | -826.00M | -766.00M | -254.00M | -821.00M |
Endeavour Group Ltd Technical Analysis
Negative
3.35
Price Trends
3.41
Negative
3.30
Negative
3.46
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.06
Positive
29.41
Positive
13.48
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:EDV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.45, below the 50-day MA of 3.41, and below the 200-day MA of 3.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.41 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.48 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:EDV.
Endeavour Group Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$3.32B | 11.76 | 16.56% | 6.06% | 0.18% | -1.74% | |
63 Neutral | AU$32.28B | 29.25 | 26.38% | 3.06% | 2.78% | 0.88% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
57 Neutral | AU$48.88B | 41.95 | 12.60% | 2.27% | 3.56% | 18.13% | |
57 Neutral | AU$4.59B | -4.20 | -29.99% | 8.46% | -12.18% | -347.47% | |
49 Neutral | AU$5.49B | 102.83 | 1.37% | 4.96% | 1.28% | -87.89% | |
47 Neutral | AU$25.37M | -0.70 | -16.84% | ― | 0.14% | -594.48% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AU:EDV
Endeavour Group Ltd
3.06
-0.64
-17.32%
AU:WOW
Woolworths Group Ltd
39.55
11.99
43.53%
AU:AVG
Australian Vintage Ltd
0.08
-0.03
-29.57%
AU:COL
Coles Group
23.74
0.48
2.07%
AU:MTS
Metcash Limited
2.95
-1.03
-25.80%
AU:TWE
Treasury Wine Estates Limited
5.56
-2.14
-27.79%
Endeavour Group Ltd Corporate Events
Endeavour Group maps out ASX-aligned governance framework
Aug 23, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has detailed its corporate governance framework for the year ended 28 June 2026, confirming compliance with ASX Corporate Governance Council principles and ASX Listing Rules. The group outlines clear distinctions between bo...
Endeavour Group profit slumps despite modest revenue growth
Aug 23, 2026
Endeavour Group reported revenue of $12.21 billion for the 52 weeks to 28 June 2026, a modest 1.3% increase on the prior year, while profit after tax attributable to equity holders fell sharply to $52 million due largely to significant item expens...
Endeavour Group Sets Long-Term CFO Succession as Transformation Accelerates
Aug 17, 2026
Endeavour Group has announced that experienced finance executive Michael Casamento will join the company as Chief Financial Officer in November, succeeding current CFO Kate Beattie, who plans to retire from executive roles in late 2027. Casamento,...
Endeavour Group Flags Asset Write-downs as F26 Earnings Slip Amid Portfolio Reset
Aug 4, 2026
Endeavour Group has reported preliminary unaudited full-year F26 results showing total group sales rising 1.3% to $12.2 billion, with modest growth in Retail and stronger growth in Hotels, but a decline in underlying EBIT to $845 million and under...
Endeavour Group Issues New Ordinary Shares Following Option Conversion
Jul 6, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has notified the market of the conversion of unquoted securities into 119,737 ordinary fully paid shares, effective 30 June 2026. The issuance, disclosed via an Appendix 3G filing, modestly increases the company’s equ...
Endeavour Group Issues New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Jul 2, 2026
Endeavour Group Ltd has notified the market of the issue of 47,358 ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted securities. The new shares, dated June 26, 2026, modestly increase the company’s equity...
Endeavour Group Issues New Unquoted Equity Incentives Under Staff Scheme
Jul 1, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has notified the ASX of the issue of unquoted equity securities under its employee incentive schemes, comprising 318,058 share rights and 383,136 performance rights. These securities, issued on 18 June 2026 and not intended...
Endeavour Group advances board renewal as two directors to retire at 2026 AGM
Jul 1, 2026
Endeavour Group has announced further renewal of its board as it advances a new growth strategy, with independent non-executive directors Rod van Onselen and Joe Pollard to retire at the 2026 Annual General Meeting. Their departures, following sev...
Endeavour Group Issues 514,319 New Shares on Convertible Exercise
Jun 9, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has notified the Australian Securities Exchange of the issue of 514,319 ordinary fully paid shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities, with an issue date of J...
Endeavour Group Issues New Unquoted Share Rights Under Employee Scheme
Jun 9, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has notified the market of the issue of 8,710 unquoted share rights under its employee incentive scheme. The new share rights, recorded under the ASX security code EDVAB and issued on 2 June 2026, will not be quoted on the ...
Endeavour Group Updates Director Joanne Pollard’s Equity Holdings
Jun 4, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has disclosed a change in the security holdings of non-executive director Joanne Elizabeth Pollard, reflecting movements under the company’s Non-executive Director Equity Plan. The update details her direct and indire...
Endeavour Group Boosts Director’s Equity Stake With New Share Rights Grant
Jun 4, 2026
Endeavour Group has disclosed a change in the security holdings of non-executive director Joanne Elizabeth Pollard, who has received a grant of 8,710 non-executive director share rights under the company’s equity plan. The new rights, acquir...
Endeavour director Penelope Winn lifts indirect shareholding via on-market purchase
Jun 3, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has disclosed a change in director Penelope Ann Winn’s relevant interests in the company’s securities, as required under ASX listing rules. Winn’s interest is held indirectly through Winn Nominees Pty Ltd,...
Endeavour Group Director Ihlein Lifts Stake With On‑Market Share Purchase
Jun 3, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has disclosed a change in director Michael Francis Ihlein’s interests, reporting that he has acquired 88,000 ordinary shares in the company through an on-market transaction. The shares are held indirectly via Krol Pty...
Endeavour Group Targets Growth With Cost Cuts, Hotel Investment and Asset Shake-Up
May 26, 2026
Endeavour Group has unveiled a refreshed growth strategy following a board-led review, centring on resetting its multi-brand retail approach, unlocking growth in its hotels business and simplifying operations to lift efficiency and returns. The pl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.