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Metcash Limited (AU:MTS)
ASX:MTS
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Metcash Limited (MTS) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:MTS

Metcash Limited

(Sydney:MTS)

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Outperform 70 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
AU$4.00
▲(3.90% Upside)
Metcash Limited's overall score is driven by strong financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and cash flow generation. The stock's valuation is reasonable, supported by a solid dividend yield. Technical indicators suggest a neutral outlook, with no immediate bullish or bearish signals.

Metcash Limited (MTS) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Metcash Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMetcash Limited operates as a wholesale distribution and marketing company in Australia and New Zealand. It operates through Food, Liquor, and Hardware segments. The Food segment distributes a range of products and services to independent supermarket and convenience retail outlets. The Liquor segment engages in the distribution of liquor products to independent retail outlets and hotels. The Hardware segment distributes hardware products to independent retail outlets; and operates company owned retail stores. The company sells its products under the IGA, Foodland, Mitre 10, Home Hardware, Total Tools, Cellarbrations, IGA Liquor, and the Bottle-O brand names. Metcash Limited was founded in 1920 and is based in Macquarie Park, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyMetcash generates revenue primarily through its wholesale distribution model, where it purchases products from manufacturers and sells them to independent retailers. The company earns money from the sale of grocery, liquor, and hardware products, and its revenue streams are diversified across these sectors. Key revenue streams include wholesale sales to supermarkets, liquor stores, and hardware outlets, alongside additional income from services such as marketing, logistics, and supply chain management. Significant partnerships with suppliers allow Metcash to negotiate favorable terms and ensure a steady supply of goods, which enhances its profitability. Moreover, Metcash benefits from economies of scale due to its large purchasing volumes, leading to cost efficiencies that can be passed on to retailers, thereby increasing sales volume and revenue.

Metcash Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Metcash Limited shows steady revenue growth and improving gross profit margins. Despite increased leverage, the company maintains a strong return on equity and robust cash flow generation. However, the low net profit margin and challenges in converting operating income into cash suggest areas for improvement.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Metcash Limited has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the past few years, with a notable increase of 4.7% in the latest year. The gross profit margin has improved steadily, reaching 12.95%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin remains relatively low at 1.64%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.16, indicating higher leverage, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. Return on equity is strong at 17.42%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is moderate, suggesting a balanced approach to financing assets.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Metcash Limited has shown a significant improvement in free cash flow growth, up by 39.86%, which is a positive indicator of financial health. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low, suggesting potential challenges in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 72.45%, indicating good cash generation relative to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue17.32B17.32B15.91B15.80B15.16B14.32B
Gross Profit1.51B2.24B1.94B1.81B1.65B1.45B
EBITDA633.90M701.40M624.60M511.80M467.70M389.00M
Net Income283.30M283.30M257.20M259.00M245.40M239.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.89B6.89B5.80B5.38B5.20B4.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments87.30M87.30M97.30M89.50M104.70M124.60M
Total Debt1.89B1.89B1.41B1.49B1.32B1.03B
Total Liabilities5.26B5.26B4.27B4.29B4.11B3.56B
Stockholders Equity1.63B1.63B1.52B1.07B1.08B1.28B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow390.50M390.50M346.70M220.60M310.60M389.90M
Operating Cash Flow539.00M539.00M482.60M372.70M432.30M475.50M
Investing Cash Flow-518.90M-482.80M-287.90M-156.60M-121.70M-171.70M
Financing Cash Flow-32.60M-68.70M-186.90M-231.30M-330.50M-454.30M

Metcash Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price3.85
Price Trends
50DMA
3.91
Negative
100DMA
3.92
Negative
200DMA
3.53
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Negative
RSI
51.99
Neutral
STOCH
66.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MTS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.80, below the 50-day MA of 3.91, and above the 200-day MA of 3.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:MTS.

Metcash Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
$4.23B14.8918.20%4.68%8.86%0.23%
70
Outperform
$4.76B10.969.13%6.78%6.47%281.30%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
62
Neutral
$29.59B27.3028.51%3.13%1.84%-3.62%
60
Neutral
€931.65M10.3936.84%7.92%-3.36%-11.53%
56
Neutral
$34.33B35.7818.56%2.98%1.70%796.48%
52
Neutral
€1.64B-0.68%2.24%0.49%-127.84%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:MTS
Metcash Limited
3.85
0.90
30.55%
AU:WOW
Woolworths Group Ltd
28.22
-0.61
-2.13%
AU:COL
Coles Group
22.08
5.13
30.24%
AU:TWE
Treasury Wine Estates Limited
5.83
-5.09
-46.60%
AU:ING
Inghams Group Ltd.
2.40
-0.38
-13.79%
AU:BGA
Bega Cheese Limited
5.36
0.10
1.82%

Metcash Limited Corporate Events

Metcash Limited Announces Cessation of Performance Rights
Oct 3, 2025

Metcash Limited announced the cessation of 57,722 performance rights due to the failure to meet certain conditions. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, as it reflects on the company’s performance metrics and the ability to meet set targets.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.35 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Limited Updates Director’s Interest with New Performance Rights Issuance
Sep 17, 2025

Metcash Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding the Group CEO, Douglas Jones. The company issued 772,870 Performance Rights to Mr. Jones under its Equity Incentive Plan as part of his long-term incentive award for FY26. This grant was approved by shareholders at the 2025 annual general meeting. The issuance of these Performance Rights reflects the company’s commitment to aligning executive compensation with long-term performance goals, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.35 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Limited Issues Performance Rights to Employees
Sep 17, 2025

Metcash Limited has announced the issuance of 47,090 performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move aims to incentivize employees and align their interests with the company’s long-term goals, potentially enhancing operational efficiency and market competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.35 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Issues New Performance Rights to Employees
Sep 17, 2025

Metcash Limited has announced the issuance of 772,870 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move reflects the company’s commitment to aligning employee incentives with corporate performance, potentially enhancing employee engagement and retention.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.35 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Limited Announces Cessation of Performance Rights
Sep 17, 2025

Metcash Limited announced the cessation of 14,222 performance rights due to the lapse of conditional rights that were not met or became unachievable. This announcement may impact the company’s capital structure and reflects the challenges in meeting performance conditions, potentially affecting stakeholder confidence and future strategic planning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.35 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Limited 2025 AGM Resolutions Passed with Strong Support
Sep 10, 2025

Metcash Limited announced the successful passing of all resolutions at its 2025 Annual General Meeting, reflecting the board’s recommendations. The resolutions included the election and re-election of directors and the approval of performance rights for the Group CEO, indicating strong shareholder support and stability in leadership, which could positively impact the company’s strategic direction and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Announces Director Retirement and Board Transition
Sep 10, 2025

Metcash Limited announced the retirement of Murray Jordan from its Board of Directors, effective 31 October 2025. Jordan, who joined the board in 2016, has significantly contributed to the company’s progress, particularly in safety, sustainability, and cultural areas. The company is in the advanced stages of searching for a new Non-Executive Director, indicating a smooth transition and continued focus on strategic governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Limited Reports FY25 Financial Performance with Revenue Growth
Sep 10, 2025

Metcash Limited reported its financial performance for FY25, highlighting a 7.2% increase in group revenue to $19.5 billion and an 8.6% rise in EBITDA to $747.8 million. Despite challenges in the hardware sector, the company saw strong cash performance and resilience in its food and liquor divisions, although underlying profit after tax declined by 2.4% due to increased costs and depreciation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Director Alters Shareholding Structure
Sep 5, 2025

Metcash Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest notice, involving an off-market transfer of ordinary shares by Director Douglas Jones to Kamasco Pty Ltd ATF The Kamasco Family Trust. This transfer, valued at approximately $1.05 million, reflects a strategic reallocation of shares, potentially impacting the company’s governance structure and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Ubique Asset Management Ceases Substantial Holding in Metcash
Aug 29, 2025

Ubique Asset Management Pty Ltd has ceased to be a substantial holder in Metcash Limited as of August 29, 2025. This change involved on-market sales and in-specie movements, affecting 14,675,076 voting securities, with a total consideration of $57,275,875.05, potentially impacting Metcash’s shareholder structure and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Director Increases Shareholding via Dividend Reinvestment
Aug 28, 2025

Metcash Limited has announced a change in the interest of its director, Marina Simone Go, in the company’s securities. The change involves the acquisition of 577 ordinary shares through the Metcash Dividend Reinvestment Plan, increasing her total holdings to 24,112 shares. This adjustment reflects the director’s ongoing engagement with the company’s financial mechanisms, potentially signaling confidence in the company’s future performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Director Increases Stake via Dividend Reinvestment
Aug 28, 2025

Metcash Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest notice, revealing that Director Margaret Anne Haseltine has acquired 1,702 ordinary shares through the company’s Dividend Reinvestment Plan, bringing her total to 71,057 shares. This transaction, valued at $6,586.74, reflects the director’s continued confidence in the company’s performance and aligns with Metcash’s strategy to enhance shareholder value through dividend reinvestment.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Limited Announces Director’s Interest Change
Aug 25, 2025

Metcash Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically involving Douglas Jones, who has adjusted his holdings of ordinary shares and performance rights. This change reflects the vesting of performance rights as part of the Group CEO’s deferred short-term incentive award for the fiscal year 2024. Such adjustments in director interests can impact the company’s governance and stakeholder perceptions, potentially influencing investor confidence and market dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Director’s Performance Rights Lapse Due to Unmet Hurdles
Aug 25, 2025

Metcash Limited has announced a change in the interests of its director, Douglas Jones, due to the lapse of performance rights. The lapse occurred because the performance hurdles for the FY23 long-term incentive grant were not met, resulting in a decrease in the number of performance rights held by the director. This change reflects the company’s adherence to performance-based incentives and may impact the director’s future engagement with the company’s strategic goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Limited Announces Change in Director’s Interest
Aug 21, 2025

Metcash Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest notice, specifically regarding the Group CEO, Mr. Douglas Jones. On August 15, 2025, Mr. Jones acquired 150,538 ordinary shares through the vesting of performance rights under the Metcash Equity Incentive Plan, which were part of his long-term incentive grant for FY23. This change reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning executive compensation with performance and shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Limited Issues New Securities to Enhance Capital Structure
Aug 21, 2025

Metcash Limited has announced the issuance of 512,047 ordinary fully paid securities as of August 15, 2025. This move indicates a strategic financial adjustment, potentially aimed at strengthening the company’s capital structure or supporting its operational initiatives, which could have implications for its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Limited Announces Cessation of Performance Rights
Aug 21, 2025

Metcash Limited has announced the cessation of 179,851 performance rights as of August 15, 2025. This update reflects changes in the company’s issued capital, which may impact stakeholders by altering the distribution of securities and potentially influencing market perceptions of the company’s financial strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Limited Releases 2025 Corporate Governance Statement
Aug 8, 2025

Metcash Limited has released its 2025 Appendix 4G and Corporate Governance Statement, in compliance with ASX Listing Rules. This announcement underscores Metcash’s commitment to transparency and adherence to corporate governance standards, which is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and ensuring regulatory compliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Limited Releases 2025 Annual Report
Aug 8, 2025

Metcash Limited has released its 2025 Annual Report, which is now available to shareholders and the public through the company’s website. This report, authorized by the Board of Directors, provides insights into the company’s operations and strategic positioning, reflecting its commitment to supporting independent retailers.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Limited Announces 2025 Annual General Meeting
Aug 8, 2025

Metcash Limited has announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM) scheduled for September 10, 2025, in Sydney. The meeting will cover key agenda items such as financial reports, director elections, and the approval of performance rights for the Group CEO. Shareholders are encouraged to participate either in person or via webcast, with options to submit proxies and questions ahead of the meeting. This AGM is a significant event for stakeholders to engage with the company’s management and discuss its strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Metcash Limited Updates Dividend Distribution Details
Aug 3, 2025

Metcash Limited has announced an update regarding its dividend distribution, specifically advising on the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) price. This update is part of the company’s ongoing financial management strategy, impacting shareholders by providing clarity on dividend-related financials for the period ending April 30, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MTS) stock is a Buy with a A$4.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metcash Limited stock, see the AU:MTS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 24, 2025