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Apollo Global Management LLC (APO)
NYSE:APO

Apollo Global Management (APO) AI Stock Analysis

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AP

Apollo Global Management

(NYSE:APO)

73Outperform
Apollo Global Management's strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights underpin a robust outlook, though tempered by challenges in revenue growth and increased competition. The technical analysis indicates potential short-term volatility, while valuation metrics suggest the stock may be fully valued. Recent corporate leadership changes strengthen governance, supporting strategic initiatives.
Positive Factors
Interest Rates
Higher interest rates are expected to serve as a relative tailwind for Apollo Global compared to its peers, benefiting its spread and private credit returns.
Market Sentiment
Price target for Apollo Global Management is increased by 3% to $135, reflecting a positive market sentiment.
Strategic Acquisitions
APO acquiring BRDG for $1.5b in an all equity deal that adds approximately $33b AUM to APO's existing $77b real estate platform.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
Earnings per share estimate for the second quarter is revised downwards slightly by 1.1%, pointing to a minor negative adjustment in financial expectations.
Fundraising and Financial Results
Apollo Global reported mixed results with a miss on fundraising and strategic real estate due to higher liability costs.
Growth Expectations
In 2025, APO targets FRE growth of 15-20%, which is below the 5Y guidance of 20%.

Apollo Global Management (APO) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Apollo Global Management Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionApollo Global Management, Inc. is a private equity firm specializing in investments in credit, private equity and real estate markets. The firm's private equity investments include traditional buyouts, recapitalization, distressed buyouts and debt investments in real estate, corporate partner buyouts, distressed asset, corporate carve-outs, middle market, growth capital, turnaround, bridge, corporate restructuring, special situation, acquisition, and industry consolidation transactions. The firm provides its services to endowment and sovereign wealth funds, as well as other institutional and individual investors. It manages client focused portfolios. The firm launches and manages hedge funds for its clients. It also manages real estate funds and private equity funds for its clients. The firm invests in the fixed income and alternative investment markets across the globe. Its fixed income investments include income-oriented senior loans, bonds, collateralized loan obligations, structured credit, opportunistic credit, non-performing loans, distressed debt, mezzanine debt, and value oriented fixed income securities. The firm seeks to invest in chemicals, commodities, consumer and retail, oil and gas, metals, mining, agriculture, commodities, distribution and transportation, financial and business services, manufacturing and industrial, media distribution, cable, entertainment and leisure, telecom, technology, natural resources, energy, packaging and materials, and satellite and wireless industries. It seeks to invest in companies based in across Africa, North America with a focus on United States, and Europe. The firm also makes investments outside North America, primarily in Western Europe and Asia. It employs a combination of contrarian, value, and distressed strategies to make its investments. The firm seeks to make investments in the range of $10 million and $1500 million. The firm seeks to invest in companies with Enterprise value between $750 million to $2500 million. The firm conducts an in-house research to create its investment portfolio. It seeks to acquire minority and majority positions in its portfolio companies. Apollo Global Management, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in New York, New York with additional offices in North America, Asia and Europe.
How the Company Makes MoneyApollo Global Management makes money primarily through management fees and performance-based incentive fees. Management fees are recurring charges based on a percentage of the assets under management (AUM) that Apollo oversees. Performance-based incentive fees, also known as carried interest, are earned when the firm's investments exceed certain performance benchmarks. Additionally, the company generates revenue through its credit and real assets segments by investing in structured credit, direct origination, and real estate markets. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other financial institutions and investors also contribute to Apollo's earnings by expanding its investment capabilities and market reach.

Apollo Global Management Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Apollo Global Management displays strong financial health with robust revenue growth and profitability. The balance sheet is stable with high equity levels and no recent debt, though historical leverage needs monitoring. Cash flow is consistent, despite the volatility in investing and financing activities.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Apollo Global Management has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a significant increase from prior years, indicating a robust business expansion. The net profit margin has been healthy, showcasing effective cost management and profitability. However, the recent dip in revenue and net income suggests potential challenges in maintaining the same growth trajectory.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a high equity ratio, signifying financial stability. The absence of debt in the latest year reduces financial risk, but previous years' debt levels indicate historical leverage. The positive ROE highlights efficient use of equity capital, although it has varied significantly over the years.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Apollo has shown strong cash flow management with consistent free cash flow generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates effective cash conversion from operations. However, fluctuations in cash flow from investing and financing activities suggest potential volatility in cash management strategies.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
26.11B32.64B10.97B5.95B2.35B
Gross Profit
23.51B31.62B10.04B5.17B1.73B
EBIT
8.30B28.35B-3.84B2.63B1.41B
EBITDA
8.41B9.12B-1.69B2.66B1.43B
Net Income Common Stockholders
4.58B5.05B-1.96B1.84B157.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
205.98B170.24B1.31B917.18M2.45B
Total Assets
377.89B313.49B13.79B30.50B23.67B
Total Debt
10.59B8.09B3.53B3.64B14.62B
Net Debt
-5.58B-7.84B2.22B2.72B12.17B
Total Liabilities
346.92B288.24B9.30B20.31B17.37B
Stockholders Equity
17.25B14.04B1.85B3.79B1.43B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
3.25B6.32B3.59B999.31M-1.68B
Operating Cash Flow
3.25B6.32B3.79B1.06B-1.62B
Investing Cash Flow
-61.80B-42.41B-23.44B-1.55B-837.66M
Financing Cash Flow
57.97B42.64B28.71B109.00M3.30B

Apollo Global Management Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price143.84
Price Trends
50DMA
132.95
Positive
100DMA
146.68
Negative
200DMA
141.71
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.01
Negative
RSI
61.28
Neutral
STOCH
80.79
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 143.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 134.50, above the 50-day MA of 132.95, and above the 200-day MA of 141.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.79 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for APO.

Apollo Global Management Risk Analysis

Apollo Global Management disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Apollo Global Management reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Apollo Global Management Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
NUNU
78
Outperform
$62.88B29.0827.91%33.20%68.47%
75
Outperform
$55.57B98.3412.97%2.30%19.02%-22.75%
APAPO
73
Outperform
$82.20B25.4121.17%1.29%-27.96%-37.13%
KKKKR
71
Outperform
$112.13B54.589.03%0.56%-27.45%-46.67%
CGCG
70
Outperform
$17.13B16.0220.38%2.95%62.87%
OWOWL
69
Neutral
$30.05B196.274.62%3.69%32.99%8.06%
64
Neutral
$12.82B9.837.68%17000.34%12.38%-5.56%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
APO
Apollo Global Management
143.84
32.40
29.07%
KKR
KKR & Co
125.90
21.61
20.72%
CG
Carlyle Group
47.42
5.00
11.79%
ARES
Ares Management
170.15
29.33
20.83%
OWL
Blue Owl Capital
19.49
1.36
7.50%
NU
Nu Holdings
13.05
1.38
11.83%

Apollo Global Management Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 02, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 4.69%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights Apollo's strong start to 2025 with record fee-related earnings, significant AUM growth, and robust origination performance. However, challenges such as increased cost of funds, competitive pressures, and lowered spread-related earnings guidance indicate a cautious outlook. Overall, the positive highlights are tempered by some significant lowlights, suggesting a balanced sentiment.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Fee-Related Earnings
Apollo generated record fee-related earnings of $559 million, representing a 21% increase year over year.
Strong Asset Under Management (AUM) Growth
Apollo's AUM reached $785 billion, marking a 17% increase year over year.
Record Quarterly Organic Inflows
Apollo reported record quarterly organic inflows of $43 billion, with $18 billion from asset management and $20 billion from Athene.
Significant Origination Growth
Apollo originated $56 billion of assets during the quarter, representing nearly a 30% growth year over year.
Strong Performance in Private Equity
Apollo's most recent private equity fund, Fund Ten, achieved a net IRR of 19%, outperforming industry peers with 9%.
Negative Updates
Increased Cost of Funds
Apollo's cost of funds increased by 28%, attributed to funding agreements.
Competitive Pressure in Retail Channel
Apollo faced increased competition in retail sales of fixed annuities, leading to lower spreads.
Lower Spread-Related Earnings Guidance
Apollo adjusted its spread-related earnings growth target to mid-single digits for 2025, down from previous expectations.
Company Guidance
During Apollo Global Management's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, strong financial outcomes were highlighted, demonstrating significant growth and strategic positioning amidst volatile market conditions. Key financial metrics included record fee-related earnings of $559 million, or $0.91 per share, and spread-related earnings, excluding notable items, of $826 million, or $1.35 per share. The firm's adjusted net income reached $1.1 billion, equating to $1.82 per share. Apollo also declared a cash dividend of $0.51 per share, marking a 10% increase from the previous quarter. The discussion underscored the firm's asset management success, citing assets under management (AUM) of $785 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase, and record inflows of $43 billion. Notably, fund-level returns were strong, with credit business returns ranging from 8% to 12% and hybrid area returns at 19% on a last twelve months (LTM) basis. Apollo's strategic focus on origination and asset acquisition was emphasized, positioning the firm for potential acceleration in returns despite market volatility.

Apollo Global Management Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Apollo Global Management Issues Regulatory Clarification
Neutral
May 12, 2025

Apollo Global Management has issued a Current Report on Form 8-K, clarifying that the information provided is not considered ‘filed’ under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. This announcement outlines the legal framework for how the information is to be treated, potentially affecting how stakeholders perceive the company’s regulatory obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (APO) stock is a Buy with a $129.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Apollo Global Management stock, see the APO Stock Forecast page.

Spark’s Take on APO Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, APO is a Outperform.

Apollo Global Management shows strong financial performance and strategic positioning, backed by robust earnings and AUM growth. While the technical analysis points to short-term challenges, the company’s governance and strategic initiatives provide a positive outlook. Valuation appears fair, though dividend yield may not attract all investors. Overall, the company is well-positioned for growth, albeit with some risks to monitor.

To see Spark’s full report on APO stock, click here.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Apollo Global Management Announces Board Leadership Changes
Positive
Apr 17, 2025

Apollo Global Management announced significant changes to its Board of Directors, effective April 21, 2025. Gary Cohn, former Vice Chairman of IBM and a seasoned financial services leader, has been appointed as the Lead Independent Director, filling the vacancy left by Jay Clayton, who will become the Interim US Attorney for the Southern District of New York. Additionally, CEO Marc Rowan has been appointed as the Chair of the Board, reflecting Apollo’s commitment to strong governance and strategic leadership. These changes are expected to enhance Apollo’s governance and support its growth strategy in the financial services industry.

Spark’s Take on APO Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, APO is a Outperform.

Apollo Global Management demonstrates a solid financial foundation with strong revenue and profitability metrics. Despite the company’s robust strategic positioning and record achievements, the stock is currently trading below key moving averages, suggesting potential short-term challenges. Valuation metrics indicate a fair market price, but modest dividend yield may limit appeal to some investors. The company’s strategic initiatives and growth plans, as highlighted in the earnings call, offer a positive outlook, though interest rate challenges and increased competition need to be monitored.

To see Spark’s full report on APO stock, click here.

Financial Disclosures
Apollo Global Management Announces Q1 2025 Investment Estimates
Neutral
Apr 2, 2025

Apollo Global Management, Inc. and its subsidiary Athene Holding Ltd. have announced preliminary estimates for their alternative net investment income for the first quarter ending March 31, 2025. The company anticipates approximately $290 million in pre-tax income, translating to an estimated 9% annualized return on alternative net investments. Athene’s investments in a pooled vehicle are expected to yield a 10% return, while other investments, including retirement services platforms, are estimated to return 6%. These figures are preliminary and subject to change, as the financial closing procedures are not yet complete, and the results have not been audited.

Executive/Board Changes
Apollo Global Management CFO Transition Announcement
Neutral
Feb 26, 2025

On February 26, 2025, Apollo Global Management announced that Louis-Jacques Tanguy will resign as the Chief Accounting Officer and Controller, effective March 1, 2025, following his appointment as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Athene Holding Ltd. Martin Kelly, the current Chief Financial Officer, will temporarily take over the role of principal accounting officer while the company searches for a replacement, with no changes to his compensation.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.