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Carlyle Group
(NASDAQ:CG)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$40.00
â–¼(-18.23% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/11/26
The score is held back primarily by weak TTM cash flow (deeply negative operating and free cash flow) alongside a steep revenue decline and still-elevated leverage. Offsetting these are a constructive earnings-call backdrop (record AUM, strong inflows, and record fee-related/distributable earnings) and moderately improving technical momentum. Valuation remains a constraint due to the high P/E despite a supportive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Record AUM and fundraising
Record assets under management and sustained fundraising expand Carlyle’s fee-generating capital base. Broad inflows across businesses improve revenue visibility, support investment in new strategies, and strengthen the platform’s ability to compound recurring management fees over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative cash generation
Deeply negative operating and free cash flow weaken earnings quality and reduce near-term financial flexibility. The deterioration from strongly positive 2025 cash flow, combined with prior negative years, indicates that reported profitability is not consistently converting into internally generated funds.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record AUM and fundraising
Record assets under management and sustained fundraising expand Carlyle’s fee-generating capital base. Broad inflows across businesses improve revenue visibility, support investment in new strategies, and strengthen the platform’s ability to compound recurring management fees over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Carlyle Group (CG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.69B
Dividend Yield3.64%
Average Volume (3M)3.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)37.9
Beta (1Y)1.78
Revenue Growth-44.06%
EPS Growth-71.02%
CountryUS
Employees2,500
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.01
Shares Outstanding356,332,800
10 Day Avg. Volume3,408,991
30 Day Avg. Volume3,243,295
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.25
Price to Book (P/B)3.69
Price to Sales (P/S)4.34
P/FCF Ratio15.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.48
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda30.99
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$54.29Price Target Upside10.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)3.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.72B
Carlyle Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Carlyle Group Inc. is a leading global investment firm that employs both direct investment and fund-of-fund strategies. Its direct investment expertise is extensive, encompassing management-led leveraged buyouts, privatizations, and divestitur...
How the Company Makes Money
Carlyle primarily makes money as an alternative asset manager by earning fees and performance-based income from investment funds and related products it sponsors and manages.
1) Management fees (recurring base revenue): Carlyle raises capital int...
Carlyle Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized broad and multi-dimensional momentum: record distributed and fee-related earnings, industry-leading realizations and strong fundraising drove AUM to a record $485 billion and produced multiple segment-level records (AlpInvest, Global Credit, transaction fees). Management highlighted disciplined reinvestment in growth (AI/technology, wealth platform) and continued fundraising momentum into a declared 'super cycle.' Offsetting factors include quarter-to-quarter volatility in realized performance revenues, deliberate reinvestment pressure that keeps margins steady near 47%, and macro/seasonal risks (Middle East war, energy pressures, inflation, and historically quieter summer months) that could impact near-term timing. On balance, the positive operational and financial achievements materially outweigh the noted risks and timing uncertainties.Positive Updates
Record Distributed Earnings and Fee-Related Earnings
Distributed earnings (DE) of $472 million in Q2 — the highest pretax DE quarter in nearly 4 years — and record fee-related earnings (FRE) of $358 million, up 11% year-over-year, with a 47% comp ratio/margin.
Negative Updates
Quarter-to-Quarter Volatility in Realized Performance Revenues
Net realized performance revenues increased more than fivefold from the prior quarter, but management emphasized that realizations are difficult to predict quarter-to-quarter and the third quarter historically sees lower transaction flow (seasonal risk to near-term revenue visibility).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Distributed Earnings and Fee-Related Earnings
Distributed earnings (DE) of $472 million in Q2 — the highest pretax DE quarter in nearly 4 years — and record fee-related earnings (FRE) of $358 million, up 11% year-over-year, with a 47% comp ratio/margin.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s guidance emphasized continued fundraising and realization-driven earnings growth: they said the firm expects 2026 comp ratio/FRE margin to remain roughly in line with last year at about 47% (with margin expansion as flagship fund flows hit in 2027–28), and that nearly all core strategies will be in-market raising capital over the next few years to support the 3‑year strategic plan. Carlyle enters H2 after $30B of organic inflows in H1 and $56B over the last 12 months, with record AUM of $485B; current-quarter metrics include distributable earnings of $472M and record FRE of $358M. Net accrued performance revenues were $2.4B (≈$7 of pretax EPS), realizations returned ~$7B this quarter ($37B over 12 months), Global Credit’s Unum block should add >$5B AUM on close, the quarterly dividend was $0.35/share, $304M of buybacks were executed in the quarter and $1.6B remains on a $2B repurchase authorization.Carlyle Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.96B | 4.90B | 4.09B | 1.87B | 3.68B | 5.82B |
| Gross Profit | 2.80B | 3.23B | 3.40B | 1.32B | 3.36B | 5.53B |
| EBITDA | 956.80M | 1.48B | 1.58B | -420.30M | 1.72B | 4.08B |
| Net Income | 363.90M | 808.70M | 1.02B | -608.40M | 1.23B | 2.97B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 28.20B | 29.12B | 23.10B | 21.18B | 21.40B | 21.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.04B | 3.21B | 2.10B | 1.79B | 1.57B | 2.62B |
| Total Debt | 14.25B | 13.89B | 9.50B | 9.26B | 8.68B | 8.50B |
| Total Liabilities | 20.98B | 22.06B | 16.76B | 15.39B | 14.58B | 15.54B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.21B | 5.76B | 5.61B | 5.19B | 6.22B | 5.28B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.00B | 1.36B | -837.20M | 138.30M | -419.90M | 1.75B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.87B | 1.46B | -759.50M | 204.90M | -379.30M | 1.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.46B | -4.25B | -77.60M | -43.60M | -828.80M | -32.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.31B | 3.28B | 682.80M | -99.60M | 114.80M | -242.50M |
Carlyle Group Technical Analysis
Negative
48.92
Price Trends
44.61
Negative
44.38
Negative
48.51
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.66
Negative
32.21
Neutral
21.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 48.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.79, above the 50-day MA of 44.61, and above the 200-day MA of 48.51, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CG.
Carlyle Group Risk Analysis
Carlyle Group disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carlyle Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carlyle Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $14.80B | 79.81 | 3.76% | 9.59% | 14.13% | -4.48% | |
73 Outperform | $141.93B | 25.40 | 40.87% | 4.58% | 22.60% | 20.33% | |
72 Outperform | $81.64B | 27.07 | 10.32% | 0.84% | 31.83% | 48.98% | |
70 Outperform | $17.40B | 37.10 | 18.59% | 4.95% | 29.91% | 507.73% | |
68 Neutral | $38.72B | 51.19 | 15.20% | 4.41% | 33.64% | 22.53% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
57 Neutral | $13.69B | 37.95 | 6.07% | 3.64% | -44.06% | -71.02% |
* Financial Sector Average
CG
Carlyle Group
38.42
-18.39
-32.37%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.