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Blue Owl Capital
(NYSE:OWL)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
â–¼(-19.42% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:10/16/26
The score is anchored by strong financial performance (especially cash flow strength and improving profitability) and a constructive earnings outlook with a sizable embedded fee-growth pipeline. These positives are offset by a clearly bearish technical backdrop (price below key moving averages and negative MACD) and a stretched earnings multiple despite the high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Embedded fee growth pipeline
The substantial pool of capital that has not yet begun paying fees provides visible internal growth potential beyond current fundraising. As deployment and capital calls progress, recurring management-fee revenue can expand, supporting earnings growth and operating leverage over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Lumpy fee conversion
Although the unfunded fee pipeline is strategically valuable, its contribution to recurring revenue is not immediate or linear. Delayed deployment or capital calls could defer expected fee growth, making near-term earnings progression less predictable despite strong underlying fundraising.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Embedded fee growth pipeline
The substantial pool of capital that has not yet begun paying fees provides visible internal growth potential beyond current fundraising. As deployment and capital calls progress, recurring management-fee revenue can expand, supporting earnings growth and operating leverage over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Blue Owl Capital (OWL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.30B
Dividend Yield9.92%
Average Volume (3M)18.85M
Price to Earnings (P/E)77.1
Beta (1Y)1.91
Revenue Growth14.13%
EPS Growth-4.48%
CountryUS
Employees1,365
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.12
Shares Outstanding683,908,570
10 Day Avg. Volume19,103,338
30 Day Avg. Volume18,852,267
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.11
Price to Book (P/B)4.50
Price to Sales (P/S)3.46
P/FCF Ratio8.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.52
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.00Price Target Upside1.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)0.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.84B
Blue Owl Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Blue Owl Capital Inc., an asset management firm based in New York City, leverages a robust and permanent capital base to deliver a comprehensive suite of financial solutions. It serves a diverse clientele, including mid-sized businesses, leading a...
How the Company Makes Money
Blue Owl makes money primarily by earning management fees and performance-based fees for managing third-party capital in its private-market strategies.
1) Management fees (recurring)
• The largest and most stable revenue stream is management fees...
Blue Owl Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized broad‑based, durable growth: strong fundraising (quarter and last‑12‑month totals), notable expansion and performance in real assets and alternative credit, meaningful embedded fee pipeline ($31B not yet paying fees), and achieved FRE margin guidance. Challenges discussed were largely manageable and improving — retail/BDC redemption headlines, a still‑recovering wealth channel, and near‑term direct lending deployment that is tepid and dependent on a higher M&A backdrop. Given the weight and scale of the positive fundraising, performance, and diversification metrics versus the contained and improving lowlights, the overall tone is constructive.Positive Updates
Earnings and Dividend
Reported FRE of $0.25 per share and DE of $0.22 per share for Q2; declared a dividend of $0.23 per share payable August 27.
Negative Updates
Wealth Channel Recovery Is Incomplete
Evergreen inflows have bottomed but remain below historical levels; May 1 close bottomed and July 1 close showed >50% increase versus May 1 but overall volumes are still recovering and require time to return to prior norms.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Earnings and Dividend
Reported FRE of $0.25 per share and DE of $0.22 per share for Q2; declared a dividend of $0.23 per share payable August 27.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Blue Owl reiterated it expects to beat Visible Alpha 2026 consensus, reconfirming prior 2026 reference points of FRE per share $1.02 and DE per share $0.89 (Q2 FRE $0.25, DE $0.22; dividend $0.23 payable Aug 27), reported FRE margin of 58.5% (in line with full‑year outlook), management fees up 8% y/y (FRE and DE +9% y/y), AUM not yet paying fees at $31.0 billion (≈$380 million of annual management fees, ~15% embedded growth vs 2025), guidance that management‑fee growth should build over the next two quarters and be higher in 2027, expected 2026 equity‑based stock‑comp of ~$365 million (business‑combination grants to go to $0 in Q4), and line‑of‑sight deployment/capital‑call activity (net‑lease Fund VI 65% drawn at quarter end, ~77% drawn next month and expected virtually fully called by year‑end).Blue Owl Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.99B | 2.87B | 2.30B | 1.73B | 1.37B | 823.88M |
| Gross Profit | 1.83B | 1.59B | 1.28B | 860.97M | 475.04M | -673.11M |
| EBITDA | 951.82M | 935.96M | 866.04M | 632.65M | 269.67M | -1.73B |
| Net Income | 80.91M | 78.83M | 109.58M | 54.34M | -9.29M | -376.17M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.33B | 12.47B | 10.99B | 8.82B | 8.89B | 8.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 169.06M | 194.51M | 152.09M | 104.16M | 68.08M | 42.57M |
| Total Debt | 4.34B | 3.86B | 2.98B | 2.00B | 1.86B | 1.26B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.72B | 6.41B | 5.19B | 3.54B | 3.34B | 2.42B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.00B | 2.21B | 2.13B | 1.53B | 1.60B | 1.66B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.32B | 1.20B | 935.37M | 881.24M | 662.91M | 276.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.38B | 1.26B | 999.55M | 949.14M | 728.45M | 281.66M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -90.14M | -270.57M | -638.14M | -118.03M | -485.22M | -1.60B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.24B | -943.04M | -313.48M | -795.03M | -217.72M | 1.35B |
Blue Owl Capital Technical Analysis
Neutral
11.79
Price Trends
10.34
Negative
9.97
Negative
10.19
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.24
Negative
54.38
Neutral
66.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OWL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.15, above the 50-day MA of 10.34, and above the 200-day MA of 10.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OWL.
Blue Owl Capital Risk Analysis
Blue Owl Capital disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blue Owl Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Blue Owl Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $65.96B | 24.18 | 8.58% | 1.92% | 39.52% | -48.06% | |
72 Outperform | $80.08B | 26.75 | 10.32% | 0.85% | 31.83% | 48.98% | |
71 Outperform | $137.02B | 24.35 | 31.17% | 4.33% | 22.60% | 20.33% | |
68 Neutral | $38.65B | 51.10 | 15.20% | 4.42% | 33.64% | 22.53% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $14.30B | 77.12 | 3.76% | 9.92% | 14.13% | -4.48% | |
57 Neutral | $13.29B | 36.81 | 6.07% | 3.76% | -44.06% | -71.02% |
* Financial Sector Average
OWL
Blue Owl Capital
9.71
-5.74
-37.15%
APO
Apollo Global Management
114.83
-8.14
-6.62%
KKR
KKR & Co
93.09
-27.28
-22.66%
BX
Blackstone Group
118.75
-29.82
-20.07%
CG
Carlyle Group
39.20
-17.69
-31.09%
ARES
Ares Management
123.70
-19.71
-13.74%
Blue Owl Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Blue Owl Capital Expands Revolving Credit Facility Capacity
Positive
Oct 15, 2026
On October 14, 2026, Blue Owl Finance LLC and various affiliated guarantors entered into a fourth amendment to their amended and restated credit agreement with a syndicate of lenders and MUFG Bank, Ltd. as administrative agent. The amendment incre...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Blue Owl Capital Completes $750 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Aug 18, 2026
On August 18, 2026, Blue Owl Finance LLC, an indirect subsidiary of Blue Owl Capital Inc., completed a $750 million offering of unsecured, unsubordinated 6.750% senior notes due 2036, fully and unconditionally guaranteed on the same basis by multi...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Blue Owl Capital Prices $750 Million Senior Notes
Positive
Aug 12, 2026
On August 11, 2026, Blue Owl Finance LLC, an indirect subsidiary of Blue Owl Capital Inc., priced an offering of $750 million aggregate principal amount of 6.750% senior unsecured notes due 2036. The notes, structured with a 10-year maturity, will...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Blue Owl Capital Posts Strong Q2 2026 Growth
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Blue Owl Capital reported second-quarter 2026 results showing continued growth and strong investment performance across its diversified platforms and geographies. Co-CEOs Doug Ostrover and Marc Lipschultz highlighted that assets ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.