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TPG
(NASDAQ:TPG)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$54.00
â–²(26.08% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/05/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (strong TTM growth, solid free cash flow conversion, and sharply improved TTM leverage) and a bullish earnings-call outlook (fundraising, AUM, and fee-related earnings momentum with maintained margin guidance). Offsetting these positives are an extended technical setup (overbought signals) and a demanding valuation (high P/E despite a supportive dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Fee-related Revenue and FRE Margin
Sustained fee-related revenue growth and a high FRE margin reflect durable, recurring economics from management fees and operating leverage. Higher FRE margins expand cash earnings sensitivity to AUM growth, improving long-term free cash flow conversion and resilience versus transaction-driven earnings.
Negative Factors
Realization Timing Volatility
TPG's accrued carry and realized performance are inherently lumpy and tied to exit timing; when realizations slow, performance fees and PRE drop materially. This creates multi-quarter volatility in earnings and cash flows and limits predictability of incentive income over investment cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Fee-related Revenue and FRE Margin
Sustained fee-related revenue growth and a high FRE margin reflect durable, recurring economics from management fees and operating leverage. Higher FRE margins expand cash earnings sensitivity to AUM growth, improving long-term free cash flow conversion and resilience versus transaction-driven earnings.
Read all positive factors
TPG Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Categorizes revenue by its sources, providing clarity on how the firm earns money and the stability or volatility of its income streams.
Categorizes revenue by its sources, providing clarity on how the firm earns money and the stability or volatility of its income streams.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTPG (TPG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$16.78B
Dividend Yield5.13%
Average Volume (3M)2.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)53.7
Beta (1Y)1.64
Revenue Growth11.60%
EPS Growth28307.69%
CountryUS
Employees1,900
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.22
Shares Outstanding153,854,050
10 Day Avg. Volume1,563,078
30 Day Avg. Volume2,048,487
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)7.48
Price to Sales (P/S)1.90
P/FCF Ratio8.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$59.64Price Target Upside39.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)2.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.63B
TPG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TPG Inc. operates globally as a specialized manager of alternative investments. The firm delivers a suite of services, including investment management for diverse pooled vehicles such as unconsolidated funds and collateralized loan obligations. Ad...
How the Company Makes Money
TPG primarily makes money by earning fees and investment-related income from the funds and vehicles it manages. The main revenue streams typically include: (1) Management fees: recurring fees charged to investors based on committed capital during ...
TPG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized broad-based operational momentum: strong fee-related revenue and FRE growth, record deployment and fundraising progress, accelerated AUM growth, notable AI and strategic investments (DeployCo, OpenAI/Anthropic) and rising accrued carry. Near-term headwinds include timing variability in realizations and capital markets fees, modest fee-rate mix shifts as the firm scales into new markets, and industry-wide retail flow volatility. On balance, the positive growth drivers, significant fundraising and deployment activity, and improving accrued carry materially outweigh the documented short-term timing and market uncertainties.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line and FRE Growth
Fee-related revenue increased 27% year-over-year to $628 million; fee-related earnings (FRE) were $315 million in the quarter (up 43% y/y) with a 50% FRE margin. LTM FRE has grown at a 31% annualized rate since IPO and margins have expanded by over 1,000 basis points.
Negative Updates
Timing and Volatility in Monetizations
Realized performance allocations (PRE) were only $35 million in Q2 and management noted that volatile macro conditions have temporarily impacted the timing of exits; industry realizations are down materially (industry cited ~46% quarter-over-quarter decline).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line and FRE Growth
Fee-related revenue increased 27% year-over-year to $628 million; fee-related earnings (FRE) were $315 million in the quarter (up 43% y/y) with a 50% FRE margin. LTM FRE has grown at a 31% annualized rate since IPO and margins have expanded by over 1,000 basis points.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated several forward-looking targets and near-term expectations: they expect to raise more than $50 billion in 2026 (already >$26B YTD, including $16B in Q2), and to sustain robust deployment in H2 (Q2 deployment $14B; $62B LTM), with continued management fee growth (management fees +15% YoY, +9% sequential) driving fee-related revenue momentum (Q2 FRR $628M, +27% YoY) and fee-related earnings leverage; they maintained full‑year FRE margin guidance of 47% (Q2 FRE margin was 50% on $315M FRE) and said transaction & monitoring fees will likely step down in Q3 (no big Q4 rebound budgeted), while realized performance allocations are expected to step up toward year‑end and into 2027 (Q2 realized PRE $35M; realizations $5B in Q2, ~$14B YTD). Other forward metrics: AUM of $327B (+25% YoY) with $52B of AUM subject to fee‑earning growth (including $39B not yet earning fees, ~ $290M annualized revenue opportunity), net accrued carry of $1.4B (up 15%), and an expected corporate tax rate in the high single digits in Q3 before stepping up in Q4.TPG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.67B | 4.67B | 2.62B | 1.86B | 1.50B | 5.58B |
| Gross Profit | 4.48B | 4.52B | 2.54B | 1.82B | 1.48B | 5.56B |
| EBITDA | 1.00B | 825.55M | 110.56M | 131.33M | 9.24M | 4.69B |
| Net Income | 218.38M | 184.59M | 23.48M | 80.09M | 92.43M | 2.18B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.03B | 13.49B | 10.54B | 9.37B | 7.94B | 8.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 944.66M | 826.11M | 808.02M | 665.19M | 1.11B | 978.10M |
| Total Debt | 644.95M | 1.72B | 1.58B | 1.26B | 592.45M | 621.45M |
| Total Liabilities | 10.29B | 9.36B | 6.94B | 6.01B | 4.86B | 1.70B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.74B | 1.19B | 784.10M | 579.16M | 509.67M | 1.61B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.08B | 1.00B | 504.01M | 703.79M | 1.37B | 1.47B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.15B | 1.03B | 532.15M | 720.52M | 1.38B | 1.47B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.31B | -263.96M | -44.47M | -373.56M | -3.01M | -37.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 16.18M | -750.36M | -344.86M | -789.23M | -1.24B | -1.32B |
TPG Risk Analysis
TPG disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TPG reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TPG Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $158.90B | 28.39 | 40.87% | 3.02% | 27.99% | 20.33% | |
74 Outperform | $13.47B | 13.90 | 6.78% | 10.22% | 10.38% | -34.10% | |
72 Outperform | $16.78B | 53.73 | 12.13% | 5.23% | 11.60% | 28307.69% | |
72 Outperform | $91.07B | 30.19 | 9.92% | 0.75% | 28.11% | 48.98% | |
68 Neutral | $42.25B | 56.68 | 14.54% | 3.90% | 46.89% | 21.89% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $16.57B | 30.23 | 6.07% | 3.08% | -26.37% | -49.86% |
* Financial Sector Average
TPG
TPG
48.99
-9.87
-16.76%
KKR
KKR & Co
102.81
-38.01
-26.99%
BX
Blackstone Group
137.13
-26.31
-16.10%
CG
Carlyle Group
47.79
-13.01
-21.40%
ARCC
Ares Capital
20.01
-0.36
-1.77%
ARES
Ares Management
136.85
-43.06
-23.93%
TPG Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
TPG Names Axel André Chief Financial Officer
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
On June 15, 2026, TPG appointed veteran finance executive Axel André as Partner and Chief Financial Officer, effective July 27, 2026, succeeding current CFO Jack Weingart, who will then focus fully on leading the firm’s Global Wealth So...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.