TPG AI Stock Analysis
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TPG (TPG) AI Stock Analysis
TPG
(NASDAQ:TPG)
TPG’s score is driven primarily by improving (but uneven) financial performance with meaningful balance-sheet leverage, alongside constructive technical momentum. The latest earnings call meaningfully supports the outlook via raised fundraising and margin guidance, while valuation is a modest drag due to a high P/E despite an attractive dividend yield.
TPG Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Revenue by TypeCategorizes revenue by its sources, providing clarity on how the firm earns money and the stability or volatility of its income streams.
TPG's Management Fees have shown consistent growth, reflecting strong operational performance and strategic focus on fee-generating activities. The recent earnings call highlights an impressive 80% increase in fundraising and robust deployment, indicating strong momentum. This aligns with the significant rise in Management Fees and suggests continued revenue growth potential. However, challenges in the broader private equity market and specific sectors like insurance could pose risks. TPG's strategic acquisitions and record dry powder position it well to capitalize on future opportunities, despite market uncertainties.
The FlyTPG (TPG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $18.79B
- Dividend Yield
- 4.77%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 2.81M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 36.6
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.65
- Revenue Growth
- 21.41%
- EPS Growth
- 165.21%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 1,900
- Sector
- Financial
- Sector Strength
- 68
- Industry
- Asset Management
TPG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TPG Inc. operates globally as a specialized manager of alternative investments. The firm delivers a suite of services, including investment management for diverse pooled vehicles such as unconsolidated funds and collateralized loan obligations. Addit...
How the Company Makes Money
TPG primarily makes money by managing investment funds and earning fees and performance-based compensation from those funds. Its main revenue streams typically include: (1) Management fees: recurring fees charged as a percentage of assets under manag...
TPG Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive overall. TPG reported broad-based fundraising, AUM, deployment, revenue, earnings and portfolio value-creation growth, raised its 2026 fundraising and FRE margin guidance, and described substantial momentum across private equity, credit, real estate, technology and private wealth. The main challenges were the higher-rate and volatile macro environment, real estate financing and valuation pressure, lower quarterly performance allocations, transaction-fee variability and risks in parts of AI infrastructure financing.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
TPG now expects to raise more than $55 billion for the full year in 2026, exceeding its original target of fundraising more than $50 billion, and has raised approximately $42 billion year-to-date; full-year 2026 FRE margin guidance is approximately 48%, representing nearly 300 basis points of expansion compared to 2025, while the fourth-quarter tax rate is expected to step up into the high teens to low 20s. TPG expects realized performance allocations to pick up in the fourth quarter and into 2027, the cadence of realizations to accelerate towards the end of this year and into 2027, its first TRECO fund to be fully committed by mid next year, to launch a multi-strategy credit internal fund and a non-traded REIT next year, and to double credit AUM to $200 billion by the end of 2029; over the long term, it remains highly confident in expanding FRE margin into the 50s, although it is not putting an exact time line on that expansion.
TPG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials point to a recovery but with notable risk. Income Statement strength (71) reflects improving revenue and operating profitability, but net margins remain thin and results have been volatile. Balance Sheet is the key constraint (58) due to meaningful leverage (TTM debt-to-equity ~1.69x). Cash Flow (64) is consistently positive with strong conversion, though TTM free cash flow declined materially, signaling near-term pressure.
Income Statement
71PositiveBalance Sheet
58NeutralCash Flow
64Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.17B | 4.67B | 2.62B | 1.86B | 1.50B | 5.58B |
| Gross Profit | 4.93B | 4.52B | 2.54B | 1.82B | 1.48B | 5.56B |
| EBITDA | 1.13B | 832.46M | 110.56M | 131.33M | 9.24M | 4.69B |
| Net Income | 268.72M | 184.59M | 23.48M | 80.09M | 92.43M | 2.18B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.68B | 13.49B | 10.54B | 9.37B | 7.94B | 8.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 799.79M | 826.11M | 808.02M | 665.19M | 1.11B | 978.10M |
| Total Debt | 2.28B | 1.72B | 1.58B | 1.26B | 592.45M | 621.45M |
| Total Liabilities | 10.72B | 9.36B | 6.94B | 6.01B | 4.86B | 1.70B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.35B | 1.19B | 784.10M | 579.16M | 509.67M | 1.61B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 639.87M | 1.00B | 504.01M | 703.79M | 1.37B | 1.47B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 729.08M | 1.03B | 532.15M | 720.52M | 1.38B | 1.47B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -589.22M | -263.96M | -44.47M | -373.56M | -3.01M | -37.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -420.30M | -750.36M | -344.86M | -789.23M | -1.24B | -1.32B |
TPG Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.73, above the 50-day MA of 45.71, and above the 200-day MA of 43.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TPG.
TPG Risk Analysis
TPG disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TPG reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
3 New RisksTPG Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
BX74Outperform- TPG68Neutral
ARES66Neutral
APO62Neutral
KKR62Neutral
CG60Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BX | 74Outperform | $151.25B | 26.92 | 40.77% | 4.15% | 12.97% | 28.70% |
| TPG | 68Neutral | $18.78B | 36.59 | 21.91% | 4.77% | 21.41% | 165.21% |
| Sector * | 68Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
| ARES | 66Neutral | $46.02B | 102.14 | 10.75% | 3.75% | 6.81% | -47.67% |
| APO | 62Neutral | $72.47B | 6147.50 | -4.58% | 1.74% | 11.43% | -126.08% |
| KKR | 62Neutral | $89.97B | 27.49 | 11.13% | 0.76% | 38.51% | 43.24% |
| CG | 60Neutral | $14.76B | 41.53 | 6.08% | 3.40% | -11.91% | -46.16% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPG | Tpg Inc Class A | 49.03 | -5.66 | -10.34% | |
| APO | Apollo Global | 122.95 | -3.66 | -2.89% | |
| KKR | Kohlberg Kravis Roberts | 100.05 | -19.83 | -16.54% | |
| BX | Blackstone Group L.P. | 122.01 | -11.99 | -8.95% | |
| CG | The Carlyle Group Lp | 41.12 | -11.19 | -21.38% | |
| ARES | Ares Management Lp | 137.89 | -4.68 | -3.28% |
TPG Corporate Events
TPG Announces Immediate Leadership and Board Transition
NegativeOn September 6, 2026, TPG Inc. announced that Todd Sisitsky has stepped down from his role as President and has resigned from the company’s Board of Directors, with both changes taking effect immediately. The departure of a senior executive and board...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 04, 2026